pre, i'm assuming you're running it hole by hole

are you running via excel? have you looked into using a data table to expedite the process?

I have been going hole by hole using Excel. I have not thought of that. How do you do that? Got any video tutorial links?

Side Note: I was wondering how I can apply some of these ideas to the NFL season, and I'm don't think it's possible.

Edit: Once I have it set up, it takes me 2 clicks to simulate an entire event.

I'm very high on Hideki this week but no way he has 10% equity in this field. Also don't get how you have Simpson ahead of Rory or Bryce on this course.

Re: Simpson vs. Rory/Bryson

Here are the relevant stats I'm using (from over the past 2 years, and for players within this week's field). GIR numbers are this season only since they didn't track it last year.

SG-APP (Rory 1, Webb 5, Bryson 7, Deki 9)
SG-ARG (Deki 3, Webb 8, Rory 13, Bryson 61)
SG-Diff (Deki 5, Webb 16, Rory 24, Bryson 78)
Prox 125-150 (Rory 4, Webb 14, Deki 34, Bryson 85)
GIR 125-150 (Webb 8, Deki 37, Rory 57, Bryson 102)
Prox 175-200 (Rory 2, Bryson 16, Deki 20, Webb 23)
GIR 175-200 (Deki 3, Bryson 5, Webb 16, Rory 101)
Prox 200-225 (Webb 6, Deki 11, Rory 14, Bryson 21)
GIR 200-225 (Deki 1, Bryson 8, Webb 17, Rory 117)
Par 4 Birdie Rate (Webb 2, Rory 5, Bryson 7, Deki 37)
Bogey Rate (Webb 1, Rory 5, Bryson 8, Deki 16)

I could be off. I heard something about Par 5 scoring being the best predictor of the outcome of this event, but I think that's too simplistic of an approach to a full week.

Using these stats, Deki and Webb being favored over Rory and Bryson is pretty reasonable.

You're off. Being better at golf >>> all the micro factors pretty much every week.

You're probably right, but I view courses as different and that require different skill sets.

I think a good distinction may be that some courses accentuate certain skillsets rather than they require different skill sets.

The guys that started data golf were on the No Laying Up podcast this week. I think that it would be worth a listen about how they think about course history and the sample size issues it presents. They speak about how much they adjust player skill for course fit, and in most cases it was negligible excluding courses like Augusta for players like Phil who have played 100 rounds there. I'm trying to figure out for myself how you account for skill vs course history and haven't had any breakthroughs yet, but listening to them explain their approach gave me things to think about. Consensus from successful guys ITT and where I've read elsewhere seems that the player skill/classification problem is a large majority of the puzzle and I think of course history as a mechanism to fine tune your projections while trying not to overfit the model.

On a related note, I do recall Sigs mentioning ITT about course fit adjustment at either Colonial or Harbor town being the largest for some players and the value being about 0.1 - 0.2 strokes above/below their baseline skill.

don't listen to Iowa! he's only won a few million here, keep working on # of sims run, that is the key to unlocking everything

That all makes sense (the accentuating skills not requiring them).

Embarrassingly, in my sims, my win % is win/playoff %. My countif statement is for <= 1st place.

Couple more I bet

Mickelson>Redman +109
Woods> DJ +121
Fitzpatrick>Hatton - 108

...........name win_perc top_10_perc make_cut_perc

33448 justin thomas 0.065 0.399 0.863
29221 webb simpson 0.048 0.348 0.838
28237 rory mcilroy 0.044 0.309 0.802
48081 xander schauffele 0.035 0.260 0.768
46970 jon rahm 0.034 0.290 0.809
50525 collin morikawa 0.032 0.262 0.781
30925 dustin johnson 0.028 0.222 0.730
34360 patrick reed 0.026 0.244 0.769
32102 rickie fowler 0.026 0.233 0.758
25364 paul casey 0.023 0.219 0.760
35450 patrick cantlay 0.023 0.221 0.759
28089 jason day 0.020 0.227 0.783
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.019 0.195 0.730
22405 justin rose 0.018 0.186 0.721
08793 tiger woods 0.017 0.188 0.729
30927 brendon todd 0.017 0.162 0.675
29725 tony finau 0.017 0.196 0.761
40026 daniel berger 0.016 0.200 0.764
34363 tyrrell hatton 0.016 0.181 0.723
47959 bryson dechambeau 0.016 0.174 0.705
26476 chez reavie 0.015 0.168 0.718
23108 matt kuchar 0.014 0.173 0.733
29478 kevin kisner 0.014 0.162 0.707
25396 kevin na 0.014 0.141 0.665
34098 russell henley 0.013 0.159 0.715
27649 brandt snedeker 0.013 0.147 0.678
45526 abraham ancer 0.012 0.148 0.686
24502 adam scott 0.010 0.138 0.673
24024 zach johnson 0.010 0.145 0.709
30911 tommy fleetwood 0.009 0.129 0.673

it always hates Bryson because he is a bad around the green even though I have him ranked 5th.

precept, i'm going to dm you a slack invite, i think we should be sharing resources because it seems like we're tackling the same problem using very different methods and i'm sure there's a lot to learn from each other

but if you can isolate the final result per each golfer into a single cell that's generated by formulas then line them all out horizontally

let's say for sake of simplicity we are doing 3 golfers and simming 10 events, then you take result export cell for golfer 1 and copy it to B1, golfer 2 to C1, etc to D1

then for your own visual reference number A2-A11 1-10 then highlight B211 and click the data tab and the what if analysis button and from there select data table, there will be two blank lines, leave top one empty and in the second one type A1 (which is a blank cell, any blank cell will do) this will replicate your results 10x down the in those cells (that is if it's a dynamic cell to begin with you'll now have simmed 10x in that table and each time you do something, copy it etc it'll reload with a new "sim")

but honestly, excel is just something tangible to play with and learn, once i have a good concept of what I'm doing and where i'm going I'm moving to R full on

really like this from a cut line perspective but it's troubling how none of the weaker golfers ever won it in 10k sims, very troubling indeed

will do some tweeks and try again

Golfer Win
Rory McIlroy 1157
Dustin Johnson 886
Justin Thomas 733
Jon Rahm 650
Bryson DeChambeau 561
Jason Day 522
Webb Simpson 472
Adam Scott 383
Collin Morikawa 373
Patrick Cantlay 372
Tiger Woods 351
Hideki Matsuyama 307
Paul Casey 272
Justin Rose 251
Patrick Reed 243
Tony Finau 234
Tommy Fleetwood 234
Rickie Fowler 233
Gary Woodland 230
Matt Kuchar 229
Daniel Berger 226
Marc Leishman 220
Xander Schauffele 190
Sungjae Im 182
Jordan Spieth 165
Scottie Scheffler 163
Brooks Koepka 163
Viktor Hovland 128
Ian Poulter 126
Billy Horschel 120
Kevin Na 101
Harold Varner III 99
Kevin Streelman 92
Chez Reavie 82
Tyrrell Hatton 82
Matthew Fitzpatrick 81
Brandt Snedeker 81
Joaquin Niemann 80
Harris English 80
Charles Howell III 75
Ryan Palmer 65
Doc Redman 64
Abraham Ancer 60
Russell Henley 48
Dylan Frittelli 45
Adam Hadwin 44
Byeong Hun An 42
Pat Perez 42
Kevin Kisner 41
Brendon Todd 41
Ryan Moore 40
Phil Mickelson 40
Brian Harman 40
Corey Conners 20
Louis Oosthuizen 20
Lucas Glover 20
Alex Noren 20
Charley Hoffman 20
Henrik Norlander 20
Danny Lee 20
Max Homa 4
Adam Long 2
Bubba Watson 1
Cameron Champ 1
Lanto Griffin 1
Denny McCarthy 1
Nick Taylor 1
Bud Cauley 0
Brendan Steele 0
Rory Sabbatini 0
Jason Kokrak 0
Joel Dahmen 0
Matthew Wolff 0
Richy Werenski 0
Nate Lashley 0
Charl Schwartzel 0
Carlos Ortiz 0
Brice Garnett 0
Russell Knox 0
Emiliano Grillo 0
Si Woo Kim 0
Cameron Smith 0
Keegan Bradley 0
Maverick McNealy 0
Andrew Landry 0
Tom Hoge 0
Matthew NeSmith 0
Keith Mitchell 0
Scott Brown 0
Sam Burns 0
Talor Gooch 0
Tom Lewis 0
Sebastian Munoz 0
Sepp Straka 0
Troy Merritt 0
Sam Ryder 0
Sung Kang 0
Cameron Tringale 0
Matt Jones 0
Xinjun Zhang 0
J.T. Poston 0
Robby Shelton 0
Bo Hoag 0
Ryan Armour 0
Vaughn Taylor 0
Mark Hubbard 0
Graeme McDowell 0
Scott Piercy 0
Brian Gay 0
Patrick Rodgers 0
Adam Schenk 0
Beau Hossler 0
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0
Scott Stallings 0
Cameron Davis 0
Luke List 0
Harry Higgs 0
Zac Blair 0
Michael Thompson 0
Mackenzie Hughes 0
Brian Stuard 0
Tyler Duncan 0
Fabian Gomez 0
Wyndham Clark 0
Scott Harrington 0

Golfer Make Cut %
Rory McIlroy 90.96%
Justin Thomas 89.38%
Dustin Johnson 88.72%
Patrick Cantlay 88.01%
Jon Rahm 87.87%
Bryson DeChambeau 87.21%
Hideki Matsuyama 86.48%
Jason Day 86.09%
Webb Simpson 85.78%
Collin Morikawa 84.57%
Xander Schauffele 83.67%
Adam Scott 82.43%
Gary Woodland 81.37%
Tiger Woods 80.49%
Rickie Fowler 80.15%
Patrick Reed 79.92%
Daniel Berger 79.13%
Sungjae Im 78.79%
Paul Casey 78.00%
Jordan Spieth 77.61%
Abraham Ancer 77.29%
Matt Kuchar 77.25%
Tony Finau 77.23%
Scottie Scheffler 77.17%
Tommy Fleetwood 76.66%
Justin Rose 75.73%
Marc Leishman 75.54%
Viktor Hovland 75.29%
Harris English 72.55%
Joaquin Niemann 72.21%
Tyrrell Hatton 71.06%
Brooks Koepka 70.46%
Ryan Palmer 69.99%
Kevin Na 69.64%
Corey Conners 68.81%
Billy Horschel 68.12%
Kevin Kisner 68.04%
Russell Henley 67.28%
Brian Harman 66.88%
Doc Redman 66.48%
Kevin Streelman 66.44%
Ian Poulter 66.28%
Chez Reavie 66.14%
Harold Varner III 64.97%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 64.53%
Adam Hadwin 63.82%
Lucas Glover 63.76%
Brandt Snedeker 63.64%
Brendon Todd 63.38%
Bud Cauley 63.20%
Charles Howell III 62.79%
Dylan Frittelli 62.56%
Byeong Hun An 62.53%
Ryan Moore 62.52%
Louis Oosthuizen 59.89%
Phil Mickelson 59.38%
Joel Dahmen 59.12%
Adam Long 58.60%
Bubba Watson 58.46%
Alex Noren 56.30%
Brendan Steele 55.79%
Pat Perez 55.17%
Matthew Wolff 54.49%
Cameron Champ 52.96%
Denny McCarthy 51.98%
J.T. Poston 51.92%
Lanto Griffin 51.90%
Si Woo Kim 48.34%
Charley Hoffman 48.17%
Max Homa 48.02%
Keegan Bradley 47.75%
Vaughn Taylor 47.11%
Emiliano Grillo 46.93%
Brice Garnett 45.19%
Ryan Armour 44.61%
Henrik Norlander 44.35%
Tom Lewis 44.14%
Russell Knox 43.96%
Sam Ryder 43.75%
Jason Kokrak 43.58%
Luke List 43.23%
Scott Stallings 43.04%
Scott Piercy 42.87%
Sebastian Munoz 42.78%
Rory Sabbatini 42.73%
Richy Werenski 41.93%
Cameron Davis 41.89%
Sam Burns 41.55%
Adam Schenk 41.37%
Matthew NeSmith 41.17%
Carlos Ortiz 40.93%
Brian Stuard 40.81%
Nick Taylor 40.79%
Talor Gooch 40.44%
Brian Gay 40.26%
Nate Lashley 39.64%
Tom Hoge 38.79%
Sepp Straka 38.72%
Maverick McNealy 38.50%
Charl Schwartzel 37.95%
Patrick Rodgers 37.13%
Mackenzie Hughes 36.75%
Danny Lee 36.71%
Matt Jones 36.67%
Robby Shelton 36.52%
Mark Hubbard 36.37%
Beau Hossler 36.27%
Cameron Tringale 35.77%
Keith Mitchell 35.44%
Andrew Landry 35.20%
Cameron Smith 35.06%
Xinjun Zhang 34.41%
Michael Thompson 34.24%
Fabian Gomez 33.66%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 31.36%
Graeme McDowell 31.00%
Harry Higgs 30.60%
Wyndham Clark 30.47%
Troy Merritt 29.82%
Bo Hoag 29.56%
Scott Brown 27.92%
Tyler Duncan 27.43%
Zac Blair 27.32%
Sung Kang 23.29%
Scott Harrington 20.76%

I'm having a hard time envisioning what you're explaining, Rick. I like the idea of getting it all down to one number (Moneyball anyone?).

This summer, I would pull data, combine the data (2019 and 2020 for long term skill rate), write about 10 formulas (birdie and bogey probabilities for short and long par 3s, short and long par 4s, and par 5s) then do a ton of copying and pasting.

I used R in Grad School about 8-10 years ago. Felt comfortable with it, but have lost all knowledge with it.

Morikawa @23.0 (1.6 units) 20% 1-8
Simpson @31.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
Berger @36.0 (1.1 units) 20% 1-8

Was stuck between Morikawa and Day for a while at the same price, still pretty unsure

DFS ownership hilarious again this week. In the half-millymaker Finau is chalkiest at 25% (!) followed by Jason Day at 20%, along with the strong value plays Reed & Ancer which make sense. Day's been playing great but glad I faded him if he's second most popular. Thought Rahm would be the obvious chalk and had 95% initially but got gunshy and peeled back to 85%. He's lower owned than Berger (another guy I faded). Maybe I messed up a sort or lookup somewhere?

Last week was maybe my favorite DFS golf week to date. Got destroyed at PGA contests & lost 95% but hit the top lineup with a single entry on euro tour and won all contests for a whole $3k or so. PGA champ week was great though so I shouldn't complain even if it's fun to.

I had the Top 4 guys this week (McILroy/JT/Rahm/Bryson) as more or less the same so Rahm was a sick play in all formats on DK imo.

Fitzpatrick is not even trying anymore lol.

DJ was 6.0 / +500 outright after his -5 back 9 start. Was a pretty incredible situation with the easier side to play, but lol at the juice on that

you mean to say that you don't think -40 is sustainable?

Only Ben An can sustain those numbers if there was no variance in golf

And if there was no putting in golf

scottie scheffler getting our hopes up and letting us down at 80/1 2 weeks out of the last 3? bring it on

Wow at DJ.