Anyone else ready for SungJae season 2? Hard not to see Webb doing something this week, so doing a rain dance and hoping his putter isn't on fire instead of taking him at 11.
Imagine you talking about something you know zero about. I'm one of the top golf experts in the world, and I know what the narratives are, which ones are false, and which ones have merit. Any true expert will agree with me. Take for instance the 12th hole at Augusta last year when Tiger won. Not a single one of those guys in contention, Koepka, Poulter, Finau, or the leader Molinari had done any reading on the history of the Masters. If they had , they would have known the multiple reasons why you don't go at that pin.
One after another they went into the water, in the exact spot that everyone goes into the water there. Tiger knew what he was doing, knew the history of the Masters, recognized the situation, and played over the left bunker, almost guaranteeing a short put for par. The moment his tee shot landed on the green everyone watching, and every player realized what wheels were in motion, and what was by far the most likely result....Tiger winning the Masters and climbing the impossible mountain.
Stick to topics you understand. I am an expert on golf, golf betting, elections, election betting, as well as finance, beauty, psychology, and human systems. For instance, Kamala Harris, the current favorite to be Biden's VP, has zero chance. Zero. I've explained it in the election betting thread. It is zero, even though she is even money. She simply never gets chosen by Biden. Ever.
Stick to topics you understand. I am an expert on golf, golf betting, elections, election betting, as well as finance, beauty, psychology, and human systems. For instance, Kamala Harris, the current favorite to be Biden's VP, has zero chance. Zero. I've explained it in the election betting thread. It is zero, even though she is even money. She simply never gets chosen by Biden. Ever.
Stick to topics you understand. I am an expert on golf, golf betting, elections, election betting, as well as finance, beauty, psychology, and human systems. For instance, Kamala Harris, the current favorite to be Biden's VP, has zero chance. Zero. I've explained it in the election betting thread. It is zero, even though she is even money. She simply never gets chosen by Biden. Ever.
Well, this certainly did not age well and your claim that you are an expert on elections and election betting certainly lost merit. But that's alright, because you are still an expert on many other non related subjects, such as finance and beauty.
I have met a few experts in a few specific areas in my life, nothing so general as "human systems", but to a man (or woman) the more they know the more they understand they don't know. And I would venture they would have to be coaxed to admitting they are an expert in anything. So while I wish this was the best troll job of all time I think this has gone from the best example of Dunning-Kruger in 8 fields to flat out delusional basement dwelling dude with weird middle name future serial killer territory. Nevertheless, as nobody in the gambling world has ever been impressed with red boarding, I'm going to not wait until Sunday afternoon to pontificate, and go ahead throw out my nescient attempt at a future pick with Harris English at +2938.
Rank Name
1 Webb Simpson
2 Patrick Reed
3 Sungjae Im
4 Harris English
5 Paul Casey
6 Billy Horschel
7 Joaquin Niemann
8 Brooks Koepka
9 Sergio Garcia
10 Ryan Moore
11 Tommy Fleetwood
12 Jordan Spieth
13 Charles Howell III
14 Chez Reavie
15 Brian Harman
16 Corey Conners
17 Justin Rose
18 Kevin Kisner
19 J.T. Poston
20 Russell Henley
21 Carlos Ortiz
22 Pat Perez
23 Jim Furyk
24 Rory Sabbatini
25 Bud Cauley
26 Brendon Todd
27 Harold Varner III
28 Brandt Snedeker
29 Lucas Glover
30 Talor Gooch
31 Dylan Frittelli
32 Adam Long
33 Zach Johnson
34 Shane Lowry
35 Henrik Norlander
36 Brice Garnett
37 Patrick Rodgers
38 Sebastian Munoz
39 Maverick McNealy
40 Doc Redman
41 Adam Schenk
42 Denny McCarthy
43 Luke List
44 Jhonattan Vegas
45 Scott Stallings
46 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
47 Sepp Straka
48 Jason Kokrak
49 Brian Stuard
50 Ryan Armour
51 Russell Knox
52 Cameron Davis
53 Tom Lewis
54 Sam Burns
55 Mark Hubbard
56 Kyle Stanley
57 Sam Ryder
58 Chesson Hadley
59 Branden Grace
60 Charley Hoffman
61 Matt Jones
62 Matthew NeSmith
63 Stewart Cink
64 Scott Piercy
65 Chase Seiffert
66 Nate Lashley
67 Bronson Burgoon
68 Tim Wilkinson
69 Tom Hoge
70 Nick Watney
71 Rafa Cabrera Bello
72 Cameron Percy
73 Aaron Wise
74 Chris Kirk
75 Troy Merritt
76 Austin Cook
77 Peter Uihlein
78 Jason Dufner
79 Seamus Power
80 Josh Teater
81 Brian Gay
82 Aaron Baddeley
83 Tyler Duncan
84 Danny Lee
85 Harry Higgs
86 Bill Haas
87 Andrew Landry
88 Fabian Gomez
89 Xinjun Zhang
90 Si Woo Kim
91 Bo Hoag
92 Wyndham Clark
93 Graeme McDowell
94 David Hearn
95 Mark Anderson
96 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
97 Beau Hossler
98 Charl Schwartzel
99 D.J. Trahan
100 Kiradech Aphibarnrat
101 Matt Wallace
102 Will Gordon
103 J.J. Spaun
104 Sung Kang
105 Luke Donald
106 Joseph Bramlett
107 Chris Baker
108 C.T. Pan
109 Keith Mitchell
110 Ben Martin
111 Robby Shelton
112 Brandon Hagy
113 Wesley Bryan
114 Anirban Lahiri
115 Kramer Hickok
116 Danny Willett
117 Scott Brown
118 Peter Malnati
119 Patton Kizzire
120 Chris Stroud
121 Kristoffer Ventura
122 Ryan Brehm
123 Robert Streb
124 Doug Ghim
125 Scott Harrington
126 Rob Oppenheim
127 Kevin Tway
128 Tyler McCumber
129 Roger Sloan
130 Ben Taylor
131 Zac Blair
132 Michael Gligic
133 Hank Lebioda
134 Arjun Atwal
135 Michael Gellerman
136 Rhein Gibson
137 Matthias Schwab
138 Grayson Murray
139 Ted Potter, Jr.
140 Vincent Whaley
141 Jim Herman
142 Sebastian Cappelen
143 Davis Love III
144 Carl Pettersson
145 Matt Every
146 Greg Chalmers
147 John Senden
148 Nelson Ledesma
149 Bo Van Pelt
150 Michael Kim
151 Vince Covello
152 Akshay Bhatia
153 Martin Trainer
154 David Berganio, Jr.
going to try running some sims but probably won't have em this week
SungJae was pretty unlucky today, grazed the cup like 6 times. I really do think this is the type of event where we realise the equity on his price increases, but guess that has to wait.
Think Long, Sabs and Todd have good days in them tomorrow and I guess the plan is to take some 2019 SungJae prices in 2021. I was (probably ******edly) bullish on him at the start of the year, the break definitely slowed him down
Like a lot:
Niemann>Vegas -148 (silly odds but the other guy is just playing for pride)
Z Johnson>Cink -154 (silly odds but the other guy is just playing for pride)
Im>Conners -117
Needs some obvious work but finally found a way to sim Wyndham that I'm fairly content with with and will continue to learn more and make more adaptations going forward - eyeballing the results, they sometimes seem off but it's hard to say if the greater bias is in me mistakenly thinking x golfer is good or bad vs the model
struggled a little bit because accepted norms of a standard deviation of 2.75 in scoring per round - while accurate, for my simming purposes doesn't allow for the bad guys to have good finishes, someone like Bergamo will miss the cut 100% of the time, I refuse to believe anyone good enough to get an invite to play in a PGA event, regardless of how poorly they've played previously, is dead money, for this reason I kind of brute forced in a system where if someone has adjusted scoring above par then they get a higher standard deviation for the first round of golf - it's a decent temporary workaround to allow someone like Bergamo to finish outside the bottom 10 while still preventing someone from running away with tourney and win with a score in the -30s
this was done using holistic data, planning on running again but on a more granular hole by hole style
still having major issues with the euros, translating the data is rough and they'll always be discounted here until then, considering just giving a slight bump to them before running sims
but this is first batch of sim 2.0 (many failed attempts prior to this)
Golfer Cut %
Webb Simpson 81.90%
Sungjae Im 71.41%
Patrick Reed 70.46%
Paul Casey 69.99%
Justin Rose 69.94%
Brooks Koepka 68.27%
Jordan Spieth 65.96%
Charles Howell III 65.50%
Harris English 65.45%
Brandt Snedeker 65.04%
Tommy Fleetwood 63.52%
Billy Horschel 63.28%
Rory Sabbatini 62.09%
Lucas Glover 61.15%
Joaquin Niemann 60.41%
Bud Cauley 60.27%
Ryan Moore 60.21%
Denny McCarthy 60.05%
Brice Garnett 59.80%
Sergio Garcia 59.28%
Kevin Kisner 58.59%
Cameron Davis 58.36%
Cameron Percy 58.02%
Henrik Norlander 56.85%
Brian Harman 56.84%
Sebastian Munoz 56.72%
J.T. Poston 56.62%
Ryan Armour 56.19%
Harold Varner III 56.18%
Luke List 55.74%
Carlos Ortiz 55.71%
Bill Haas 55.34%
Chez Reavie 55.23%
Jim Furyk 55.05%
Brendon Todd 54.73%
Corey Conners 54.65%
Scott Piercy 54.26%
Kyle Stanley 53.89%
Scott Stallings 53.84%
Sam Ryder 53.84%
Russell Henley 53.52%
Aaron Wise 53.41%
Zach Johnson 53.39%
Matt Jones 53.25%
Nate Lashley 53.18%
Pat Perez 52.98%
Jason Kokrak 52.74%
Maverick McNealy 52.70%
Russell Knox 52.60%
Jhonattan Vegas 52.32%
Will Gordon 52.30%
Chris Kirk 51.93%
Sam Burns 51.75%
Nick Watney 51.31%
Tim Wilkinson 51.30%
Josh Teater 50.60%
Mark Hubbard 50.59%
Dylan Frittelli 50.46%
Patrick Rodgers 49.70%
Talor Gooch 49.69%
Adam Schenk 49.53%
Wyndham Clark 49.46%
Peter Uihlein 49.18%
Chesson Hadley 49.08%
Matthew NeSmith 48.87%
Shane Lowry 48.47%
Brian Gay 48.10%
Stewart Cink 47.66%
Charl Schwartzel 47.16%
Tom Lewis 46.86%
Aaron Baddeley 46.69%
Sepp Straka 46.62%
Brian Stuard 46.58%
Doc Redman 46.30%
Troy Merritt 46.23%
Austin Cook 46.22%
Chase Seiffert 45.70%
Jason Dufner 45.48%
Bronson Burgoon 45.47%
Seamus Power 44.94%
Charley Hoffman 44.75%
Branden Grace 44.51%
Rafa Cabrera Bello 44.27%
Fabian Gomez 44.24%
Andrew Landry 44.06%
Tom Hoge 44.06%
Patton Kizzire 43.94%
Brandon Hagy 43.91%
J.J. Spaun 43.80%
C.T. Pan 43.72%
Xinjun Zhang 43.09%
Danny Lee 43.04%
Kevin Tway 42.90%
Adam Long 42.89%
Peter Malnati 42.34%
D.J. Trahan 42.25%
Keith Mitchell 41.94%
David Hearn 41.84%
Graeme McDowell 41.58%
Scott Brown 41.45%
Si Woo Kim 41.17%
Luke Donald 40.09%
Anirban Lahiri 39.91%
Tyler Duncan 39.91%
Ben Martin 39.69%
Sung Kang 39.30%
Beau Hossler 39.20%
Bo Hoag 38.75%
Hank Lebioda 38.72%
Doug Ghim 38.10%
Roger Sloan 37.86%
Chris Baker 37.81%
Robert Streb 37.72%
Kramer Hickok 37.32%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 37.30%
Harry Higgs 37.09%
Joseph Bramlett 36.83%
Davis Love III 36.71%
Mark Anderson 35.59%
Tyler McCumber 35.53%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 35.17%
Ryan Brehm 35.05%
Chris Stroud 34.74%
Zac Blair 34.25%
Robby Shelton 33.81%
Michael Gligic 33.50%
Arjun Atwal 33.48%
Wesley Bryan 33.46%
Scott Harrington 33.16%
Matt Wallace 32.34%
Jim Herman 31.45%
Danny Willett 31.11%
Greg Chalmers 31.05%
Ben Taylor 30.83%
Rob Oppenheim 30.72%
Ted Potter, Jr. 30.67%
Kristoffer Ventura 30.62%
Carl Pettersson 30.29%
Grayson Murray 29.75%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 29.59%
Vincent Whaley 28.31%
Michael Gellerman 28.12%
Rhein Gibson 27.74%
John Senden 25.11%
Sebastian Cappelen 25.08%
Matt Every 24.79%
Michael Kim 20.90%
Nelson Ledesma 17.90%
Bo Van Pelt 12.94%
Martin Trainer 7.80%
Matthias Schwab 5.41%
Akshay Bhatia 5.31%
David Berganio, Jr. 5.27%
Vince Covello 5.23%
Golfer W % Implied Odds
Webb Simpson 10.11% 10
Sungjae Im 4.38% 23
Paul Casey 3.81% 27
Justin Rose 3.62% 28
Patrick Reed 3.49% 29
Brooks Koepka 2.95% 34
Jordan Spieth 2.67% 38
Harris English 2.55% 40
Brandt Snedeker 2.53% 40
Charles Howell III 2.40% 42
Tommy Fleetwood 2.26% 45
Billy Horschel 2.05% 49
Joaquin Niemann 1.70% 59
Rory Sabbatini 1.59% 63
Lucas Glover 1.58% 64
Brice Garnett 1.57% 64
Ryan Moore 1.54% 65
Bud Cauley 1.45% 69
Denny McCarthy 1.45% 69
Cameron Davis 1.41% 71
Kevin Kisner 1.40% 72
Brian Harman 1.37% 73
J.T. Poston 1.35% 75
Jim Furyk 1.32% 76
Ryan Armour 1.31% 77
Cameron Percy 1.26% 80
Henrik Norlander 1.22% 82
Carlos Ortiz 1.20% 84
Sergio Garcia 1.17% 86
Sebastian Munoz 1.17% 86
Corey Conners 1.13% 89
Kyle Stanley 1.13% 89
Chez Reavie 1.09% 92
Brendon Todd 1.09% 92
Bill Haas 1.08% 93
Scott Piercy 1.06% 95
Luke List 1.05% 96
Harold Varner III 1.02% 99
Scott Stallings 0.99% 102
Nate Lashley 0.99% 102
Matt Jones 0.97% 104
Maverick McNealy 0.95% 106
Russell Knox 0.94% 107
Will Gordon 0.94% 107
Aaron Wise 0.93% 108
Russell Henley 0.90% 112
Tim Wilkinson 0.88% 114
Pat Perez 0.86% 117
Jason Kokrak 0.86% 117
Sam Ryder 0.83% 121
Nick Watney 0.81% 124
Mark Hubbard 0.80% 125
Dylan Frittelli 0.79% 127
Jhonattan Vegas 0.78% 129
Chris Kirk 0.78% 129
Patrick Rodgers 0.78% 129
Stewart Cink 0.78% 129
Zach Johnson 0.75% 134
Sam Burns 0.75% 134
Wesley Bryan 0.75% 134
Chesson Hadley 0.70% 143
Austin Cook 0.67% 150
Josh Teater 0.66% 152
Matthew NeSmith 0.66% 152
Peter Uihlein 0.65% 154
Talor Gooch 0.63% 159
Charley Hoffman 0.61% 164
Tom Lewis 0.60% 167
Sepp Straka 0.60% 167
Aaron Baddeley 0.58% 173
Doc Redman 0.58% 173
Troy Merritt 0.58% 173
Adam Schenk 0.57% 176
Brian Gay 0.56% 179
Greg Chalmers 0.55% 182
Wyndham Clark 0.54% 186
Shane Lowry 0.53% 189
Charl Schwartzel 0.53% 189
Fabian Gomez 0.53% 189
Bronson Burgoon 0.52% 193
Chase Seiffert 0.51% 197
Andrew Landry 0.47% 213
Tom Hoge 0.46% 218
Jason Dufner 0.45% 223
Seamus Power 0.45% 223
Adam Long 0.45% 223
Brandon Hagy 0.43% 233
Si Woo Kim 0.42% 239
Brian Stuard 0.41% 244
Patton Kizzire 0.41% 244
Branden Grace 0.40% 250
Rafa Cabrera Bello 0.39% 257
Danny Lee 0.39% 257
David Hearn 0.39% 257
Tyler Duncan 0.39% 257
Peter Malnati 0.38% 264
Ben Martin 0.37% 271
Scott Brown 0.36% 278
Kevin Tway 0.35% 286
C.T. Pan 0.34% 295
Keith Mitchell 0.34% 295
J.J. Spaun 0.33% 304
Xinjun Zhang 0.33% 304
Joseph Bramlett 0.32% 313
D.J. Trahan 0.31% 323
Graeme McDowell 0.28% 358
Luke Donald 0.28% 358
Sung Kang 0.28% 358
Beau Hossler 0.27% 371
Roger Sloan 0.27% 371
Harry Higgs 0.27% 371
Anirban Lahiri 0.25% 400
Hank Lebioda 0.25% 400
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.25% 400
Doug Ghim 0.24% 417
Bo Hoag 0.23% 435
Chris Baker 0.23% 435
Ryan Brehm 0.23% 435
Robby Shelton 0.23% 435
Robert Streb 0.22% 455
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 0.21% 477
Kramer Hickok 0.20% 500
Chris Stroud 0.20% 500
Scott Harrington 0.20% 500
Michael Gellerman 0.20% 500
Zac Blair 0.19% 527
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.19% 527
Davis Love III 0.18% 556
Danny Willett 0.18% 556
Grayson Murray 0.18% 556
Tyler McCumber 0.16% 625
Ben Taylor 0.16% 625
Ted Potter, Jr. 0.16% 625
Arjun Atwal 0.15% 667
Carl Pettersson 0.15% 667
Jim Herman 0.14% 715
Mark Anderson 0.13% 770
Kristoffer Ventura 0.13% 770
Michael Gligic 0.11% 910
John Senden 0.10% 1000
Michael Kim 0.10% 1000
Rob Oppenheim 0.09% 1112
Rhein Gibson 0.09% 1112
Sebastian Cappelen 0.09% 1112
Vincent Whaley 0.08% 1250
Matt Every 0.08% 1250
Matt Wallace 0.07% 1429
Nelson Ledesma 0.05% 2000
Martin Trainer 0.03% 3334
Akshay Bhatia 0.01% 10000
David Berganio, Jr. 0.01% 10000
Bo Van Pelt 0.00% #DIV/0!
Matthias Schwab 0.00% #DIV/0!
Vince Covello 0.00% #DIV/0!
Your model may be profitable in the end, BUT I’m not trusting any model that has Trainer over Schwab. My guess is you have some issues with Schwab’s data.
I am also having a tough time with data, especially for the small sample size guys and guys who aren't listed in PGA Tour's stats.
As for your St Dev, mine tend to range from 2.7 to 3.5 (give or take).
As for your controlling for "worse players having good days", I often use the each player's -1SD (Mean minus 1 Standard Deviation). In my mind, that's where they'd be if they all played well. I know that doesn't happen, but if the worse players play well, they can hang with the better players for one week.
Your model may be profitable in the end, BUT I’m not trusting any model that has Trainer over Schwab. My guess is you have some issues with Schwab’s data.
yeah Schwab has not played well in his limited PGA action, getting strength of schedule data for just pga guys was tough enough and I think i'll just need to do something to give the euros an artificial bonus until i solve that
@precept - that's a really good idea, will look into that and see how it goes
I'm not following what you're shooting for with looking at mean - 1SD for lower ranked players win%?
If you are running sims and lets say it's normally distributed with mean = adjusted scoring average or adjusted strokes gained then assuming norm dist then all the observations of 1SD better than average should have about 16% chance of happening if +/- 1SD is going to cover about 68% of our data.
So big picture lets say you need to beat the field by about 16 shots to win. Player 1 is 2 shot worse than tour average with SD 3.00. He needs to average gaining 4 shots per day. If his play is normally distributed he has about 2.5% chance of gaining 4 shots in a day and then this has to happen four times. So if this was random and hot hand doesn't exist the odds of wining are like 0.00004%. Maybe hot hand is really strong, idk...but if you are looking at someone like Berganio who is 50-something years old I think this is about as safely as you can say that he is dead money so the win% should be really close to 0%.
While I'm writing this I'm wondering if the shape of distributions for guys at the bottom of the rankings who are clearly out in the wilderness is actually normal? I have no idea but when I think about the scores you see Trainer, Kaufman, Kim or others at the bottom shoot have some skew where they miss cuts by a couple shots periodically but then post huge numbers to get DFL and skew their averages?
In my sims, those guys do have 0% winrate. They can compete though. They have to play well to compete, though. Better players can compete while being average. I could look at when a player plays worse than average, but if I'm selecting that player, and they play worse than average, I'm not winning.
I look at a lot of things when I build my lineups. For top guys, I'm looking at winrate. For 8-9k, I'm looking at Top 10%. For 7-8k, I'm looking at Top 20%. For 6k guys, I'm usually just looking at Made Cut %.
I'm also looking for anomalies.
When I run my 500 sims, I have a Best Info tab that includes single round and four round averages, St Devs, that -1SD, and Minimums.
I also see Made Cut%, Top 30%, Top 20%, Top 10%, Top 5%, and Win %.
That said, when I build my lineups, I am clicking the buttons, and making the decisions. It's on me to either believe the sims or ignore the sims.
