Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-08-2020, 10:06 AM   #1626
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread



Friday results

Total results - there was definitely a gap but whether that could easily be described by random chance, lolsamplesize or most likely, my rankings are crap



going to keep adapting rankings by weather but seeing end results feel like my 7%+ bonus to THURS AM group was a bit too far
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 10:25 AM   #1627
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

could just be button clicking here but here are the r-squared for projections vs reality

Wind Rank > Day 1 0.210967786
Wind Rank > Day 2 0.091127084
WindRank > Final 0.209758262
D1 > D2 0.035486324
D1 > Final 0.311701758

Raw Rank > Day 1 0.185442291
Raw Rank > Day 2 0.108630234
Raw Rank > Final 0.204109266


not sure if it's even right to output via raw rankings and finish as a single put could swing your finish position 20 spots

Seems that day one didn't have much correlation but that could be more due to the extreme weather splits on each day than anything else, could be a big outlier

makes sense my model would be much better projecting day one than day 2 since i weighted the thursday AM guys so much more so i then tested vs normal ranks before the wind factor was added and it's still that way

in the end though, seems to be a marginal difference unless I'm definitely use RSQ incorrectly, which is very likely

for the record I'm doing it like this: using Byeon An as an example

Rank W Rank R1 Rank R2 Rank Final Rank
58 66 90 32 60

Last edited by rickroll; 08-08-2020 at 10:33 AM.
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 11:09 AM   #1628
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,235
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I also have no Casey, per se. Since I had no exposure in my Classic lineups, I threw him into some Showdowns and did very well yesterday.

Again, cheeseburger stakes.

R1: -50%
R2: +700%

Most of my lineups got 5/6 (LOL Kuchar...LOL Me).

Got 6/6 in the milli (only 1 entry)...like everyone else.
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 01:29 PM   #1629
alcamist
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 23
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

rickroll, you are almost to world beating status. model looking good
alcamist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 03:21 PM   #1630
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by alcamist View Post
rickroll, you are almost to world beating status. model looking good
Lol 2p2 merged r2 with 0.0001 rsq, I agree though an rsq of 20 and it would indeed be time to set up shop and take down right triangle

But seriously, any input on whether or not measuring predicted rank of finish vs actual rank of finish using rsq is at all meaningful or helpful would be nice... If it's not obvious enough, I'm very much making it up as I go along here
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 03:59 PM   #1631
Adrenocromo
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

predict each players score not where they rank
Adrenocromo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 04:00 PM   #1632
TiltedDonkey
veteran
 
TiltedDonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 2,973
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I don’t think so.

What you want to do is output probabilities of certain finishes (top 20 etc) and then look at log loss imo
TiltedDonkey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 06:29 PM   #1633
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,487
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

schefflers about to win at 95/1

hope you guys believed
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-2020, 11:20 PM   #1634
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
schefflers about to win at 95/1

hope you guys believed

MGM had him at 150 all the way until they started. They were high on a handful of guys, including Berger. Scheffller played great, but it is crazy how big the swings are on 18, right before the final round. The superstars bury those puts. Koepka, for instance. Fleetwood, as well. Of course Scheffler rolled in three beautiful puts in a row right before that. But imagine if Scheffler birdies 18 while Koepka bogeys...Scheffler would be minus 10 and Koepka minus 5. Instead, you have Scheffler at minus 8 and Koepka at minus 7. Just unreal how Koepka birdied 18 the last two days. Justin Rose is a maniacal scrambler who makes more par saving low percentage puts than any human alive. If you don't have Rose, he is the ultimate nightmare root against, as he excels in dagger bombs for eagle, as well.

Berger playing well, too. Missed a four footer on 17 two days in a row. Big put from Day on 16, but would have had a bigger bounce in his step if had made the one on 17. Was rooting against Xander hard, almost wrote him off, then he haunted me for a stretch, but a few miscues late backed him off just enough that I won't sweat him unless he makes a move.

On a side note, what's the deal with 90 percent of golf announcers and players mistakenly using the word further instead of farther? I have a problem with affect verses effect, but the farther/further distinction is easy, and at least with affect and effect, when speaking, you cannot be wrong. Farther represents measurable distance, which fits golf perfectly (almost said..to a T/tee...pun intended"..haha). It is just crazy how they almost always say further. It is kind of hard to believe.

Last edited by Elves; 08-08-2020 at 11:31 PM.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 12:18 AM   #1635
Adrenocromo
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
ROUND 4 MATCHUP - USPGA 2020
08/0914:40
Xander Schauffele-181
Dustin Johnson+143
???
Adrenocromo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 01:26 AM   #1636
deltasum2
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 100
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

That's a really weird one I got it at +135

4th rnd matchups

DJ>Xander +135
Casey>Todd -142
Fleetwood>Day -104
deltasum2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 01:29 AM   #1637
Adrenocromo
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

we are on the same ones. good luck!
Adrenocromo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 08:10 PM   #1638
4BetBoke
old hand
 
4BetBoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,476
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

How good is Morikawa
4BetBoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 09:49 PM   #1639
Adrenocromo
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Casey finally puts 4 good rounds together in a major and then some kid comes and in takes it away. Birdies to tie the lead and seconds later Morikawa drives the green and buries the 7foot eagle putt with casey watching from the adjacent tee box.
Adrenocromo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 08:43 AM   #1640
Hellmuth was right
Pooh-Bah
 
Hellmuth was right's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 3,750
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrenocromo View Post
???
The outright leader going into Sunday always has worse odds than they otherwise normally would. If Xander was leading after rd3 and DJ was chasing Xander would be plus odds in the matchup.
Hellmuth was right is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 12:48 PM   #1641
deltasum2
centurion
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 100
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Well at least Finau didn't blow up on a Sunday.

DJ was playing way to cautious and Casey played amazing maybe no fans really does help him.

Terrible week betting, great week in fantasy. Too bad I put down 3x more on bets then fantasy.
deltasum2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 12:48 PM   #1642
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,235
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Not the best week, Bob.

Considering I went all in on Kuchar (7500) and faded Casey (also 7500), I should've lost more. Only lost about 60%.

On to the Wyndham?!?!!!?????
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 01:38 PM   #1643
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

interesting week, lost a little in cash but crushed gpps, actually had a 5/6 get top 3 in a few smaller contests and top 20 in the big ones

any week where cash lost but still had positive ROI is solid in my book

updating model like a madman, learning so much from you guys, had more breakthroughs post covid with the inputs i'm getting than i have with years of winging it
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 02:22 PM   #1644
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

DJ with a sneaky back door second, ala some of Phil Michelsons seconds in a number of U.S. Opens. First you have the chip in at 16 when D.J. already knew he was a loser. That is why he he waved his hand in disgust. Then he rolls in a long one on 18. So that gets him to within two. If the one at 16 doesn't rattle the pin it is a likely bogey instead of birdie. DJ pretty fortunate there because his smoke and mirrors round of 68 really equated to about a 71, on a day when even players whom didn't play that well shot 67, with too many to count shooting 66 and 65.

Of course the media bailed DJ out because of the Koepka situation and Morikowas heroics. Finau gets bailed out too, as he had a chance to hit the shot of his life on 16, but whiffed. I like Finau, and Im starting to like DJ because I feel at this point that the One Major issue, and Koepka having four majors to DJ's one is now a narrative that absolutely must be ended, and soon. You certainly cannot have Koepka get another one before DJ gets his second. The only time I have ever seen DJ truly smile is on those drunk pics on the boat with Paulina that were out there a few years ago.

It is also fitting that Paul Casey didn't win. He has burned more money than Davis Love did twenty years ago. Davis Love, even though he won a major, and had twenty one total wins, destroyed all the cash, especially in majors. Plus, didn't he win Harbor Town like five times? Paul Casey actually said in defeat..."as you know, golf is not the most important thing in my life". He is wrong. Golf is his vehicle.

When Vandevelde blew the British Open, he said in an interview afterwards that it was just a game. When asked about it, Jack Nicklaus said "it's not just a game. He should have had his name on the Claret Jug forever, and been a part of history, but he doesn't because of decisions he made".

There seem to be a lot of professional losers on tour, including the Big name guys. The best example was last year when Tiger won the Masters. You had guys like Schauflee, who missed by one and two shots, absolutely loving talking about it in the press room immediately afterwards. The 12th hole that day perfectly summarized everything. The red seas parted once again, so history could be made, with the best player in history, and the best thinker, getting the job done while others didnt recognize the situation.

Last edited by Elves; 08-10-2020 at 02:31 PM.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 02:26 PM   #1645
SteveSax
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 17,472
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Someone had to win. Easy to pick apart the many that didnít.
SteveSax is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 03:05 PM   #1646
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You don't quite understand. Lol.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2020, 08:49 PM   #1647
El Sueno
newbie
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 37
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elves View Post
You don't quite understand. Lol.
So you’ve been there before?

Finau shot 66 can you really knock that? Xander shows up in basically every major. You do realize winning 3% of your tournaments would be a remarkable career right?

I mean imagine being Xander....you’re 24 or 25 years old at the time and you finish t2 at the masters (maybe is first or second masters?) to Tiger. You’re supposed to be pissed????

Last edited by El Sueno; 08-10-2020 at 09:01 PM.
El Sueno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2020, 03:19 AM   #1648
HolidayInTheSun
old hand
 
HolidayInTheSun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,214
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elves View Post
DJ with a sneaky back door second, ala some of Phil Michelsons seconds in a number of U.S. Opens. First you have the chip in at 16 when D.J. already knew he was a loser. That is why he he waved his hand in disgust. Then he rolls in a long one on 18. So that gets him to within two. If the one at 16 doesn't rattle the pin it is a likely bogey instead of birdie. DJ pretty fortunate there because his smoke and mirrors round of 68 really equated to about a 71, on a day when even players whom didn't play that well shot 67, with too many to count shooting 66 and 65.

Of course the media bailed DJ out because of the Koepka situation and Morikowas heroics. Finau gets bailed out too, as he had a chance to hit the shot of his life on 16, but whiffed. I like Finau, and Im starting to like DJ because I feel at this point that the One Major issue, and Koepka having four majors to DJ's one is now a narrative that absolutely must be ended, and soon. You certainly cannot have Koepka get another one before DJ gets his second. The only time I have ever seen DJ truly smile is on those drunk pics on the boat with Paulina that were out there a few years ago.

It is also fitting that Paul Casey didn't win. He has burned more money than Davis Love did twenty years ago. Davis Love, even though he won a major, and had twenty one total wins, destroyed all the cash, especially in majors. Plus, didn't he win Harbor Town like five times? Paul Casey actually said in defeat..."as you know, golf is not the most important thing in my life". He is wrong. Golf is his vehicle.

When Vandevelde blew the British Open, he said in an interview afterwards that it was just a game. When asked about it, Jack Nicklaus said "it's not just a game. He should have had his name on the Claret Jug forever, and been a part of history, but he doesn't because of decisions he made".

There seem to be a lot of professional losers on tour, including the Big name guys. The best example was last year when Tiger won the Masters. You had guys like Schauflee, who missed by one and two shots, absolutely loving talking about it in the press room immediately afterwards. The 12th hole that day perfectly summarized everything. The red seas parted once again, so history could be made, with the best player in history, and the best thinker, getting the job done while others didnt recognize the situation.
imagine 1. actually believing this and 2. wasting the energy to type out your psychoanalysis of various golfers based on 45 second clips of them that you watched on television, all in a thread dedicated to gambling on golf
HolidayInTheSun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2020, 04:39 AM   #1649
Elves
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 20
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Imagine you talking about something you know zero about. I'm one of the top golf experts in the world, and I know what the narratives are, which ones are false, and which ones have merit. Any true expert will agree with me. Take for instance the 12th hole at Augusta last year when Tiger won. Not a single one of those guys in contention, Koepka, Poulter, Finau, or the leader Molinari had done any reading on the history of the Masters. If they had , they would have known the multiple reasons why you don't go at that pin.

One after another they went into the water, in the exact spot that everyone goes into the water there. Tiger knew what he was doing, knew the history of the Masters, recognized the situation, and played over the left bunker, almost guaranteeing a short put for par. The moment his tee shot landed on the green everyone watching, and every player realized what wheels were in motion, and what was by far the most likely result....Tiger winning the Masters and climbing the impossible mountain.

Stick to topics you understand. I am an expert on golf, golf betting, elections, election betting, as well as finance, beauty, psychology, and human systems. For instance, Kamala Harris, the current favorite to be Biden's VP, has zero chance. Zero. I've explained it in the election betting thread. It is zero, even though she is even money. She simply never gets chosen by Biden. Ever.
Elves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-11-2020, 04:46 AM   #1650
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 8,215
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

jfc this is what happens when sigs leaves
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:14 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online