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Old 08-05-2020, 07:26 PM   #1601
Precept24
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Haha. I have no idea what went wrong. I'm still clicking the buttons. I don't have to go super heavy on anyone. With those guys, I can afford JT and Rory...I think.

Cash Lineup
Rory, Cantlay, Day, Kuchar, Kisner, Sabbatini
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:53 PM   #1602
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

its a major where the **** is rigs
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:36 PM   #1603
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fixed the bug, so now the list of who not to play is more accurate

Rank G
1 Rory McIlroy
2 Justin Thomas
3 Jon Rahm
4 Webb Simpson
5 Patrick Cantlay
6 Xander Schauffele
7 Bryson DeChambeau
8 Daniel Berger
9 Patrick Reed
10 Viktor Hovland
11 Hideki Matsuyama
12 Abraham Ancer
13 Tony Finau
14 Collin Morikawa
15 Harris English
16 Matthew Fitzpatrick
17 Dustin Johnson
18 Gary Woodland
19 Sungjae Im
20 Billy Horschel
21 Matt Kuchar
22 Tyrrell Hatton
23 Ian Poulter
24 Adam Scott
25 Rickie Fowler
26 Adam Hadwin
27 Sergio Garcia
28 Tommy Fleetwood
29 Jordan Spieth
30 Chez Reavie
31 Jason Day
32 Marc Leishman
33 Kevin Na
34 Paul Casey
35 Brooks Koepka
36 Joel Dahmen
37 Brian Harman
38 Scottie Scheffler
39 Brendon Todd
40 Max Homa
41 J.T. Poston
42 Corey Conners
43 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
44 Joaquin Niemann
45 Ryan Palmer
46 Carlos Ortiz
47 Cameron Tringale
48 Bud Cauley
49 Zach Johnson
50 Adam Long
51 Tiger Woods
52 Talor Gooch
53 Matthew Wolff
54 Kevin Kisner
55 Byeong Hun An
56 Louis Oosthuizen
57 Richy Werenski
58 Nick Taylor
59 Phil Mickelson
60 Jim Furyk
61 Justin Rose
62 Kevin Streelman
63 Mark Hubbard
64 Russell Henley
65 Doc Redman
66 Brandt Snedeker
67 Harold Varner III
68 Shane Lowry
69 Lucas Glover
70 Brian Stuard
71 Lanto Griffin
72 Bubba Watson
73 Brendan Steele
74 Rory Sabbatini
75 Matt Jones
76 Sebastian Munoz
77 Dylan Frittelli
78 Denny McCarthy
79 Keegan Bradley
80 Erik van Rooyen
81 Sepp Straka
82 Luke List
83 Vaughn Taylor
84 Nate Lashley
85 Emiliano Grillo
86 Scott Piercy
87 Michael Thompson
88 Jason Kokrak
89 Cameron Champ
90 Tom Hoge
91 Cameron Smith
92 Troy Merritt
93 Tyler Duncan
94 Jason Dufner
95 Matt Wallace
96 Tom Lewis
97 Mackenzie Hughes
98 Danny Willett
99 Andrew Landry
100 Jazz Janewattananond
101 Si Woo Kim
102 Graeme McDowell
103 Xinjun Zhang
104 Rafa Cabrera Bello
105 Henrik Stenson
106 Danny Lee
107 Charl Schwartzel
108 Matthias Schwab
109 Wyndham Clark
110 Sung Kang
111 Andrew Putnam
112 Steve Stricker
113 C.T. Pan
114 Robert MacIntyre
115 Bernd Wiesberger
116 Jimmy Walker
117 Joost Luiten
118 Keith Mitchell
119 Zach J. Johnson
120 Mike Lorenzo-Vera
121 Kurt Kitayama
122 Benjamin Hebert
123 Haotong Li
124 Marcus Kinhult
125 Martin Kaymer
126 Jorge Campillo
127 Jim Herman
128 Shaun Norris
129 Lucas Herbert
130 Victor Perez
131 Ryo Ishikawa
132 Chan Kim
133 Ryan Vermeer
134 Rich Berberian, Jr.
135 Davis Love III
136 Shawn Warren
137 Alex Beach
138 Rich Beem
139 Joohyung Kim
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Old 08-06-2020, 01:25 AM   #1604
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

So i don't have a golf model as of yet. Just started scraping data and don't really have a good plan on how I'm going to do it, but for you that do, I have the questions, how is Straka +143 to Schwab (and only -108 to poulter)? And how is a guy (Jeff Hart) that is lucky to hit driver 250 a -201 favorite over anyone?
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Old 08-06-2020, 08:35 AM   #1605
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fixed bug and treated thursday pm winds like covid

Rank Name
1 Rory McIlroy
2 Justin Thomas
3 Patrick Cantlay
4 Xander Schauffele
5 Collin Morikawa
6 Daniel Berger
7 Abraham Ancer
8 Jon Rahm
9 Dustin Johnson
10 Tony Finau
11 Gary Woodland
12 Harris English
13 Webb Simpson
14 Tyrrell Hatton
15 Chez Reavie
16 Bryson DeChambeau
17 Jordan Spieth
18 Jason Day
19 Hideki Matsuyama
20 Patrick Reed
21 Viktor Hovland
22 Joel Dahmen
23 Scottie Scheffler
24 Matthew Fitzpatrick
25 Brian Harman
26 Adam Scott
27 Corey Conners
28 Sungjae Im
29 Tiger Woods
30 Bud Cauley
31 Ryan Palmer
32 Brooks Koepka
33 Sergio Garcia
34 Adam Hadwin
35 Matt Kuchar
36 Ian Poulter
37 Billy Horschel
38 Carlos Ortiz
39 Kevin Na
40 Zach Johnson
41 Marc Leishman
42 Max Homa
43 Louis Oosthuizen
44 Kevin Kisner
45 Nick Taylor
46 Shane Lowry
47 Rickie Fowler
48 Brendan Steele
49 Paul Casey
50 Lucas Glover
51 Rory Sabbatini
52 Tommy Fleetwood
53 Russell Henley
54 Joaquin Niemann
55 J.T. Poston
56 Cameron Tringale
57 Dylan Frittelli
58 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
59 Brendon Todd
60 Adam Long
61 Justin Rose
62 Talor Gooch
63 Mark Hubbard
64 Matthew Wolff
65 Richy Werenski
66 Byeong Hun An
67 Scott Piercy
68 Erik van Rooyen
69 Doc Redman
70 Harold Varner III
71 Jim Furyk
72 Phil Mickelson
73 Luke List
74 Brian Stuard
75 Lanto Griffin
76 Jason Dufner
77 Jason Kokrak
78 Matt Jones
79 Kevin Streelman
80 Brandt Snedeker
81 Nate Lashley
82 Bubba Watson
83 Tom Hoge
84 Denny McCarthy
85 Danny Lee
86 Keegan Bradley
87 Tom Lewis
88 Rafa Cabrera Bello
89 Danny Willett
90 Mackenzie Hughes
91 Sebastian Munoz
92 Michael Thompson
93 Cameron Champ
94 Sung Kang
95 Charl Schwartzel
96 Henrik Stenson
97 Tyler Duncan
98 Andrew Landry
99 Matt Wallace
100 Troy Merritt
101 Vaughn Taylor
102 Steve Stricker
103 Sepp Straka
104 Emiliano Grillo
105 Cameron Smith
106 Xinjun Zhang
107 Graeme McDowell
108 Si Woo Kim
109 Bernd Wiesberger
110 Jazz Janewattananond
111 Zach J. Johnson
112 C.T. Pan
113 Andrew Putnam
114 Matthias Schwab
115 Keith Mitchell
116 Mike Lorenzo-Vera
117 Wyndham Clark
118 Joost Luiten
119 Martin Kaymer
120 Robert MacIntyre
121 Haotong Li
122 Jimmy Walker
123 Benjamin Hebert
124 Victor Perez
125 Kurt Kitayama
126 Ryo Ishikawa
127 Marcus Kinhult
128 Jorge Campillo
129 Shaun Norris
130 Lucas Herbert
131 Jim Herman
132 Rod Perry
133 Rich Beem
134 Chan Kim
135 Shaun Micheel
136 Marty Jertson
137 David Muttitt
138 Alex Beach
139 Shawn Warren
140 Rich Berberian, Jr.
141 Justin Bertsch
142 Davis Love III
143 Joohyung Kim
144 Bob Sowards
145 Ryan Vermeer
146 Jeff Hart
147 Alex Knoll
148 Jason Caron
149 Ben Cook
150 Jeff Roth
151 Judd Gibb
152 Danny Balin
153 John T. O'Leary
154 Mike Auterson
155 Rob Labritz
156 Ken Tanigawa
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Old 08-06-2020, 09:15 AM   #1606
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

name win_perc top_10_perc make_cut_perc

28237 rory mcilroy 0.070 0.390 0.830
33448 justin thomas 0.045 0.312 0.795
30925 dustin johnson 0.043 0.311 0.793
46970 jon rahm 0.038 0.297 0.787
22405 justin rose 0.029 0.247 0.761
32102 rickie fowler 0.024 0.222 0.744
35450 patrick cantlay 0.024 0.223 0.750
29221 webb simpson 0.022 0.210 0.743
29725 tony finau 0.021 0.217 0.743
47959 bryson dechambeau 0.021 0.202 0.729
30911 tommy fleetwood 0.020 0.207 0.738
48081 xander schauffele 0.020 0.196 0.729
25364 paul casey 0.020 0.208 0.739
28089 jason day 0.018 0.187 0.723
36689 brooks koepka 0.018 0.179 0.720
50525 collin morikawa 0.017 0.189 0.724
24502 adam scott 0.016 0.186 0.724
08793 tiger woods 0.015 0.185 0.724
21209 sergio garcia 0.015 0.174 0.718
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.014 0.166 0.710
46717 viktor hovland 0.014 0.174 0.718
31323 gary woodland 0.014 0.166 0.711
34363 tyrrell hatton 0.012 0.147 0.692
23108 matt kuchar 0.012 0.144 0.689
34360 patrick reed 0.011 0.142 0.693
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Old 08-06-2020, 09:32 AM   #1607
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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name win_perc top_10_perc make_cut_perc
nice, is that from bookie odds or something more complex?
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Old 08-06-2020, 12:25 PM   #1608
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Finau misses a 4 ft put for birdie and follows it up by missing a 7 footer for birdie. Amazing
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Old 08-06-2020, 01:58 PM   #1609
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

He must think it's Sunday
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Old 08-06-2020, 06:15 PM   #1610
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Guess who started with a bogey. Kuchar

Yes, I have a lot of Kuchar this week, but it's fine since I have a ton of Day.

I got an offer from DK about entering the milli, so I used crowns (11k) and entered (receiving 5k crowns). Guess whose not in that lineup? Kuchar.

JT (16%)
Rory (17.5%)
English (13.5)
Kisner (4)
Sabbatini (0.74)
Poston (0.79)
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Old 08-06-2020, 10:13 PM   #1611
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by yak merchant View Post
So i don't have a golf model as of yet. Just started scraping data and don't really have a good plan on how I'm going to do it, but for you that do, I have the questions, how is Straka +143 to Schwab (and only -108 to poulter)? And how is a guy (Jeff Hart) that is lucky to hit driver 250 a -201 favorite over anyone?
Maybe because they can read a weather report and I canít.
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Old Yesterday, 06:31 AM   #1612
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I went with assumption of 25mph gusts thursday pm vs 15 mph gusts on friday pm and assigned a 7.8% bonus to those who got Thursday AM tee times

will run again tomorrow because this on it's own is pretty meaningless and assuming it'll likely cancel back out tomorrow


just comparing the avg rank of am/pm waves of my ranking before and after weather adjustment as well as just pure results

then i sub grouped into my top 100 or not because i don't even begin to attempt caring whether or not someone ranked 128 is actually better than someone ranked 152 because for my own dfs purposes it's irrelevant
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Old Yesterday, 07:09 AM   #1613
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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will run again tomorrow because this on it's own is pretty meaningless and assuming it'll likely cancel back out tomorrow
I'm confident it's still physcologically easier to get off to a good start and maintain it, I did weigh this when I went for Cantlay / Schauffele
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Old Yesterday, 07:22 AM   #1614
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Likely that score fluctuates quite a bit by round, but 3.7 is astronomical. Youíll probably see the tee up the first two days mainly for pace of play. They arenít gonna get too sporty with 156 guys needing to go around. Weekend is a different story with twosomes and a single tee. But the scorecard I found says 250, which isnít that insane considering it wonít play that long every day. Iíd have to check a SG table but Iíd imagine at 250 from a tee the expected score is in the 3.3-3.4 range. 3.7 would be in line with a 330-360 yard par 4 probably.

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I hear ya. I calculated all my probabilities and got an average score of 3.313. The hole seems like a monster, so I was just checking to see if I was too low on it.
We were close, El Sueno. 3.423
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Old Yesterday, 08:59 AM   #1615
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'm confident it's still physcologically easier to get off to a good start and maintain it, I did weigh this when I went for Cantlay / Schauffele
Solid point, not sure if I should rejoice that maybe a needless overreaction is pointless but possibly effective anyway from natural am/pm splits for to green difficulty or be upset that I'll never be able to truly know.

But you got me thinking about scraping am Thursday starts historical performance. Could be something there because the snowball effect is real.
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Old Yesterday, 09:08 AM   #1616
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You could also probably find a metric for players who tend to bounce back strong, vs players (like Hatton) who seem to throw in the towel after a bad start. Not really sure how to go about that, but definitely something to think about.
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Old Yesterday, 11:40 AM   #1617
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

button clicking for min amounts for tracking
X>JT -110
DJ>Cantlay -119
Ancer>Fitz -123
Casey>Kuchar -128
Rose>Reavie -120
EVR>N Taylor -137
English>List -131
Kisner>Willet -139
Stenson>Homa -134
Straka>Poulter -126
Cauley>Glover -121
Dahmen>Hughes -127
Munoz>Long -120
Harman>Thompson -110
ZJ>Stricker -140
Kang>Landry -122

one i actually like
Steele>Schwartzel -125

going to go through last week once done with dfs
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Old Yesterday, 11:41 AM   #1618
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Boo!

Casey > Kuchar

Boo, I say!
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Old Yesterday, 01:09 PM   #1619
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Boo!

Casey > Kuchar

Boo, I say!
testing a "ffff these winds are bad and bogeying the first hole puts me at +4 so f it" thesis in my model

would legit take the opposite side of a lot of these if it were day one

like Steele is in line to make the cut and zero chance schwartzel can make it so he's not going to have any real motivation other than plugging along
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Old Yesterday, 02:14 PM   #1620
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

hard to believe that they were giving + odds on fleetwood over hovland last night.
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Old Yesterday, 05:28 PM   #1621
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You may not know, but Kuchar will miss the cut. Not the best finish, bogey on 3 of the last 4.

Insert sobbing emoji here.
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Old Yesterday, 07:17 PM   #1622
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Brutal....had Tringale > Merritt full tournament and Tringale wins the matchup but gets DQ for signing incorrect card.

Everyone bet on Paul Casey this week....right??????
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Old Today, 12:57 AM   #1623
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

now the fun part of staying up all night until they post the lines
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Old Today, 08:03 AM   #1624
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've had 0% Casey exposure either way in anything all week. Seems like he is back to being his usual awesome at golf but will fall apart the moment the stakes get high self.

Got a minimum of 5 and mostly 6 through on DK like everyone else with a pulse there. So many $30 min cashes!
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