The OWGR is close enough for the Top 25 or so in the world, but it starts to overvalue the Euros/Asians really quickly after that. Sagarin or even Data Golf over the OWGRs imo.

Iowa! are you betting the Barracuda matchups on BM?

i've actually written a lot about how absurd owgr aka the satoshi kodaira japanese sponsor loophole is and do lean more on datagolfs, will check out sagarin

@Sueno- this is the problem i face in that i'd have to rebuild my model from scratch and just scrape course specific, weigh the strength of field and then account for variance, ie if Dustin Johnson went beast mode and Rory sat that one out does his great performance really matter that much less? These guys are still all pga level golfers playing extremely difficult courses

yes there'll be some tougher events where someone may not get the best SG data he'd have gotten with a softer field and vice versa but iin the long run i think it works out

or i could go down the datagolf path and spend tons of time only to have a more complicated version of "we really don't know what to do here"
https://datagolf.com/frequently-aske...strokes-gained
in the meantime, i'd rather keep my scraping to pga events only and use them more as multipliers then as raw starting points

but legit enjoying this discussion and am open to any and all criticism or suggestions

I didn't have much there but yes.

1) get the scores from all the tours you want to use
2) find all the players that played on multiple tours
3) use one id for each player across all tours
4) combine all the rounds from all the tours together
5) make an adjusted score to the field for each unique round number course combo
6) adjust the adjusted score by the strength of the field for that round
7) loop until step 6 stabilizes


for example Matthew Fitzpatrick's final round at Memorial.

He shot a 68 vs the field average 75.9375 for an adjusted round score of -7.960938.
The strength of the field for that round was -2.214844 (includes many lower end tours) Which was the toughest field other than WGC Mexcio. Giving an final adjusted score of -10.171875. The 7th best adjusted score on this calender year.

I have been using SG-Diff as part of everything. So, the Tyrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood types get a boost over the Billy Horschel types.

I've been busy and then golfing (so badly) today. Also, our Internet is acting up. When the kids go to bed, I'll try to post what I ended up with. I gave ball striking categories a boost, since it's a ball striking week.

I think the idea of field strength probably balances out for your rank and file tour players cause they are on the fringe of getting into bigger events like Riviera, API, Colonial, Memorial + Majors and unlikely to get in to WGCs. For the higher ranked guys (RM, DJ, TW, Rahm etc) most of their schedule comes from the three invitationals above, all WGCs + majors making up 12 events where they probably play 20-24 events per year maximum.

So if you are Lucas Glover I think the idea of playing some poor fields like Rocket Mortgage/3M is offset by playing Memorial and Colonial, but the top guys are not playing many/any of these weaker events but maybe 1-2 times per year.

I'm shooting in the dark here as far as what the difference in SG would be for Rory's schedule versus playing Glover's schedule, but if we make no adjustment and the raw SG average for Rory is +1.6 over our sample period w/o any adjustment then I think we are underestimating Rory's skill if we are running simulations using SG as our determination of skill and adding in some random component. Let's say Glover's raw SG is +0.6 over the same period as Rory but he only plays 2 majors and 1 WGC + all the invitationals and then fills his schedule with John Deere/3M/rocket tournaments with weak fields. The difference in ability is likely greater than 1 stroke the the raw figures would indicate because of strength of field. To me intuitively a handful of big names not playing shouldn't massively affect an adjustment factor, but when you have a tournament like Rocket Mortgage or 3M where Tim Herron gets in because so many of the regular tour players are skipping then you have to start considering adjustments?

Or you have Lanto Griffin winning a fairly weak field in Houston but the +13 to +16 shots he likely gained in that win were "cheaper" to earn because the field was stronger. If he blasts off when he plays in bigger events and is "exposed" against a better field then I guess his SG avg will get brought down. But for guys in his category where they are playing as Korn Ferry grads and not getting into the best fields, you're going to have them playing against lesser competition regularly due to opposite field events and weaker fields that happen during the summer between majors under normal circumstances.

I think this step by step helped me better understand the score based skill estimate idea Broadie covers than the academic paper because it is actually written in plain english and I now at least have a better idea of how to approach the problem.

Thank you very much

When I was working on the first iteration of my model I was amazed at how much some guys ratings changed once I adjusted for SOF. Doing this and including data from outside the PGA Tour aren't elite steps, you are just behind everyone else you are competing with if you aren't doing them.

really appreciate the input guys - i think my main problem is the bar for success in golf, much like hockey and soccer is so much lower that it's easy enough to find something that outperforms the info people get while handbuilding lineups and then you sort of plateau from there

looks like i'm going to spend some time rebuilding my strokes gained database and develop a new method for pulling in and quantifying fresh data

now if only we had adjusted ERA and WRC for strength of field in baseball and we'd be cooking

cash line is: bryson/thomas/morikawa/hovland/hadwin/scheffler

just withdrew from a boatload of high dollar cash groups, seems late start is giving the boys enough time to fill em and try to only take those if there is overlay or a particularly weak field

I went with JT/Morikawa/Deki/Conners/Streelman/Palmer.

GL everyone!

Have followed every shot / price / movement on Hadwin and Scheffler for the past month and they are firmly in my do not touch group for now.

Surely will be wrong and they crush this week

We're torturing ourselves with Conners, but I fired too. The stats aligned and I kind of dig the tortue bet now and again

Took a ton of restraint for me not to put Scheffler in there...like Rick who is torturing himself even more.

i'm with you guys on the hadwin/scheffler hate, but if you knew they were min priced on yahoo would that change your mind?

Yes

it looks the shot link data is screwed up in Memphis, and not existent at the Barracuda.

Is there a way to bet on Ben An for the first 9 holes of round 1? I think I'd be rich

1st hole Jason Day hits it inside a foot, taps it in and loses .2 strokes putting. I wonder if they fix it when the round is over or if it is a permanent glitch in the formula.

Oh poop. Triple Bogey.

Haha yeah, was expecting that a bit later in the day, he could have let me feel smug for more than 7 mins

is bryson the only one to reach 16 in 2 today?

Added
0.5u Hideki @50.00
0.25u Reavie @60.00

do you guys adjust for round 2 in a no cut event or just keep it same same?

standard disclaimer this is me just testing things out

like a lot
Fleetwood>Horschel -110
Ancer>Berger -112

like a little less
DJ>Fitzpatrick -119
Scheffler>Wolff -111
EVR>Wieseberger -118

clicking buttons
Cantlay>DeChambeau +117 would have liked a lot pre tourney but biased enough from yesterday to slow pony this - same with the Koepka stuff i'd normally bet against here
Im>Kuchar -115
Niemann>Kisner -123
Spieth>Oosthuizen -117

I bet EVR at slightly better but still like him at that price. It's obviously different than a cut event with way less risk of a guy completely giving up, but your opinions should have changed slightly from pre tourney imo. There is def some signal in Round 1 data.