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Old 07-29-2020, 03:27 PM   #1526
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The OWGR is close enough for the Top 25 or so in the world, but it starts to overvalue the Euros/Asians really quickly after that. Sagarin or even Data Golf over the OWGRs imo.
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Old 07-29-2020, 04:10 PM   #1527
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Iowa! are you betting the Barracuda matchups on BM?
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Old 07-29-2020, 04:29 PM   #1528
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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The OWGR is close enough for the Top 25 or so in the world, but it starts to overvalue the Euros/Asians really quickly after that. Sagarin or even Data Golf over the OWGRs imo.
i've actually written a lot about how absurd owgr aka the satoshi kodaira japanese sponsor loophole is and do lean more on datagolfs, will check out sagarin

@Sueno- this is the problem i face in that i'd have to rebuild my model from scratch and just scrape course specific, weigh the strength of field and then account for variance, ie if Dustin Johnson went beast mode and Rory sat that one out does his great performance really matter that much less? These guys are still all pga level golfers playing extremely difficult courses

yes there'll be some tougher events where someone may not get the best SG data he'd have gotten with a softer field and vice versa but iin the long run i think it works out

or i could go down the datagolf path and spend tons of time only to have a more complicated version of "we really don't know what to do here"
https://datagolf.com/frequently-aske...strokes-gained
Quote:
How can you estimate a player's performance relative to the typical PGA Tour player for tournaments other than those on the PGA Tour?
It is possible to make comparisons of performances on, for example, the Web.com Tour to those on the PGA Tour because there is overlapping golfers in these fields. That is, each week in the Web.com event there will very likely be a few golfers who played in a PGA Tour event in the weeks preceeding or following it. It is due to this overlap that direct comparisons are made possible across tournaments and tours. For example, if a player beats a PGA Tour field by 1 stroke per round one week, and then beats a Web.com field by 2 strokes per round the next, we could conclude that this PGA Tour field is 1 stroke better per round than this Web.com field (if we assume the player's ability was constant across the 2 weeks). Of course this example doesn't seem very realistic because we are ignoring the role of statistical noise: what if the player played "poorly" one week? This would lead us to draw misleading conclusions about the relative field strengths. This is mitigated in practice by the fact that we don't have just one player "connecting" fields, but many.

But what about tours like the Mackenzie Tour or Latinoamerica Tour surely there is very little overlap between these tours and the PGA Tour in a given season? This is true, but to make comparisons of the Mackenzie Tour to the PGA Tour we don't actually need direct overlap. It is sufficient that there are players from the Mackenzie Tour events who also play in Web.com events, and then there are some (different) players in the Web.com events that also play in the PGA Tour events. It is in this sense that we require Mackenzie Tour events to be "connected" to PGA Tour events. The accuracy of this method is limited by the amount of overlap across tours and fields; in general, we find there is a lot more overlap than you might expect. Now that we have recently expanded our database of golf scores to include any event played on an OWGR-sanctioned tour as well as any event included in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, there are many ways that PGA Tour events can be connected to other, smaller, tours.

Once we run this statistical exercise, we are left with a set of strokes-gained numbers that can be compared relative to one another. But, we would like to have a useful benchmark to easily understand the quality of any single performance in isolation. Therefore, as said above, for each season we make the average true strokes-gained performance equal to 0 on the PGA Tour. This gives us the nice interpretation for all true strokes-gained numbers as the number of strokes gained relative to the average PGA Tour field in that season.
in the meantime, i'd rather keep my scraping to pga events only and use them more as multipliers then as raw starting points

but legit enjoying this discussion and am open to any and all criticism or suggestions
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Old 07-29-2020, 04:29 PM   #1529
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I didn't have much there but yes.
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Old 07-29-2020, 05:50 PM   #1530
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

1) get the scores from all the tours you want to use
2) find all the players that played on multiple tours
3) use one id for each player across all tours
4) combine all the rounds from all the tours together
5) make an adjusted score to the field for each unique round number course combo
6) adjust the adjusted score by the strength of the field for that round
7) loop until step 6 stabilizes


for example Matthew Fitzpatrick's final round at Memorial.

He shot a 68 vs the field average 75.9375 for an adjusted round score of -7.960938.
The strength of the field for that round was -2.214844 (includes many lower end tours) Which was the toughest field other than WGC Mexcio. Giving an final adjusted score of -10.171875. The 7th best adjusted score on this calender year.
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:15 PM   #1531
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Are you normalizing strokes gained data using field strength or just using the nominal/raw strokes gained data? Weeks like this could be case in point where you have a WGC and opposite field event with two distinctly different field compositions in terms of skill. This is a problem I want to tackle for my model because obviously data from weeks like this will skew a baseline skill determination.

Going 0SG across all categories at WGC is obviously not the same as 0SG across all categories at Barracuda. I just haven't figured out a way to approach this problem yet. Under normal circumstances there are 5-8 weeks a year where the tour plays two events and by not appropriately weighting SG you're going to likely overestimate skill for rookies/lower ranked guys since they are not competing against any of the top 40% of the tour that week.

World ranking does a decent job of at least attributing the idea of field strength, but it's well understood how there is bias in the ranking due its construction.
I have been using SG-Diff as part of everything. So, the Tyrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood types get a boost over the Billy Horschel types.

I've been busy and then golfing (so badly) today. Also, our Internet is acting up. When the kids go to bed, I'll try to post what I ended up with. I gave ball striking categories a boost, since it's a ball striking week.
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Old 07-30-2020, 12:40 AM   #1532
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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i've actually written a lot about how absurd owgr aka the satoshi kodaira japanese sponsor loophole is and do lean more on datagolfs, will check out sagarin

@Sueno- this is the problem i face in that i'd have to rebuild my model from scratch and just scrape course specific, weigh the strength of field and then account for variance, ie if Dustin Johnson went beast mode and Rory sat that one out does his great performance really matter that much less? These guys are still all pga level golfers playing extremely difficult courses

yes there'll be some tougher events where someone may not get the best SG data he'd have gotten with a softer field and vice versa but iin the long run i think it works out
I think the idea of field strength probably balances out for your rank and file tour players cause they are on the fringe of getting into bigger events like Riviera, API, Colonial, Memorial + Majors and unlikely to get in to WGCs. For the higher ranked guys (RM, DJ, TW, Rahm etc) most of their schedule comes from the three invitationals above, all WGCs + majors making up 12 events where they probably play 20-24 events per year maximum.

So if you are Lucas Glover I think the idea of playing some poor fields like Rocket Mortgage/3M is offset by playing Memorial and Colonial, but the top guys are not playing many/any of these weaker events but maybe 1-2 times per year.

I'm shooting in the dark here as far as what the difference in SG would be for Rory's schedule versus playing Glover's schedule, but if we make no adjustment and the raw SG average for Rory is +1.6 over our sample period w/o any adjustment then I think we are underestimating Rory's skill if we are running simulations using SG as our determination of skill and adding in some random component. Let's say Glover's raw SG is +0.6 over the same period as Rory but he only plays 2 majors and 1 WGC + all the invitationals and then fills his schedule with John Deere/3M/rocket tournaments with weak fields. The difference in ability is likely greater than 1 stroke the the raw figures would indicate because of strength of field. To me intuitively a handful of big names not playing shouldn't massively affect an adjustment factor, but when you have a tournament like Rocket Mortgage or 3M where Tim Herron gets in because so many of the regular tour players are skipping then you have to start considering adjustments?

Or you have Lanto Griffin winning a fairly weak field in Houston but the +13 to +16 shots he likely gained in that win were "cheaper" to earn because the field was stronger. If he blasts off when he plays in bigger events and is "exposed" against a better field then I guess his SG avg will get brought down. But for guys in his category where they are playing as Korn Ferry grads and not getting into the best fields, you're going to have them playing against lesser competition regularly due to opposite field events and weaker fields that happen during the summer between majors under normal circumstances.
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Old 07-30-2020, 12:42 AM   #1533
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Adrenocromo View Post
1) get the scores from all the tours you want to use
2) find all the players that played on multiple tours
3) use one id for each player across all tours
4) combine all the rounds from all the tours together
5) make an adjusted score to the field for each unique round number course combo
6) adjust the adjusted score by the strength of the field for that round
7) loop until step 6 stabilizes


for example Matthew Fitzpatrick's final round at Memorial.

He shot a 68 vs the field average 75.9375 for an adjusted round score of -7.960938.
The strength of the field for that round was -2.214844 (includes many lower end tours) Which was the toughest field other than WGC Mexcio. Giving an final adjusted score of -10.171875. The 7th best adjusted score on this calender year.
I think this step by step helped me better understand the score based skill estimate idea Broadie covers than the academic paper because it is actually written in plain english and I now at least have a better idea of how to approach the problem.

Thank you very much
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Old 07-30-2020, 07:20 AM   #1534
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

When I was working on the first iteration of my model I was amazed at how much some guys ratings changed once I adjusted for SOF. Doing this and including data from outside the PGA Tour aren't elite steps, you are just behind everyone else you are competing with if you aren't doing them.
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Old 07-30-2020, 09:24 AM   #1535
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

really appreciate the input guys - i think my main problem is the bar for success in golf, much like hockey and soccer is so much lower that it's easy enough to find something that outperforms the info people get while handbuilding lineups and then you sort of plateau from there

looks like i'm going to spend some time rebuilding my strokes gained database and develop a new method for pulling in and quantifying fresh data

now if only we had adjusted ERA and WRC for strength of field in baseball and we'd be cooking

cash line is: bryson/thomas/morikawa/hovland/hadwin/scheffler

just withdrew from a boatload of high dollar cash groups, seems late start is giving the boys enough time to fill em and try to only take those if there is overlay or a particularly weak field
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:12 AM   #1536
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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cash line is: bryson/thomas/morikawa/hovland/hadwin/scheffler
I went with JT/Morikawa/Deki/Conners/Streelman/Palmer.

GL everyone!
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:55 AM   #1537
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Have followed every shot / price / movement on Hadwin and Scheffler for the past month and they are firmly in my do not touch group for now.

Surely will be wrong and they crush this week
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Old 07-30-2020, 10:57 AM   #1538
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I went with JT/Morikawa/Deki/Conners/Streelman/Palmer.

GL everyone!
We're torturing ourselves with Conners, but I fired too. The stats aligned and I kind of dig the tortue bet now and again
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Old 07-30-2020, 11:38 AM   #1539
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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We're torturing ourselves with Conners, but I fired too. The stats aligned and I kind of dig the tortue bet now and again
Took a ton of restraint for me not to put Scheffler in there...like Rick who is torturing himself even more.
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Old 07-30-2020, 11:43 AM   #1540
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i'm with you guys on the hadwin/scheffler hate, but if you knew they were min priced on yahoo would that change your mind?
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Old 07-30-2020, 11:50 AM   #1541
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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i'm with you guys on the hadwin/scheffler hate, but if you knew they were min priced on yahoo would that change your mind?
Yes
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Old 07-30-2020, 12:45 PM   #1542
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

it looks the shot link data is screwed up in Memphis, and not existent at the Barracuda.
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Old 07-30-2020, 02:07 PM   #1543
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Is there a way to bet on Ben An for the first 9 holes of round 1? I think I'd be rich
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Old 07-30-2020, 02:23 PM   #1544
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

1st hole Jason Day hits it inside a foot, taps it in and loses .2 strokes putting. I wonder if they fix it when the round is over or if it is a permanent glitch in the formula.
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Old 07-30-2020, 02:45 PM   #1545
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Is there a way to bet on Ben An for the first 9 holes of round 1? I think I'd be rich
Oh poop. Triple Bogey.
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Old 07-30-2020, 03:05 PM   #1546
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Haha yeah, was expecting that a bit later in the day, he could have let me feel smug for more than 7 mins
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Old 07-30-2020, 04:24 PM   #1547
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

is bryson the only one to reach 16 in 2 today?
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Old 07-31-2020, 05:04 AM   #1548
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added
0.5u Hideki @50.00
0.25u Reavie @60.00
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Old 07-31-2020, 07:10 AM   #1549
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

do you guys adjust for round 2 in a no cut event or just keep it same same?

standard disclaimer this is me just testing things out

like a lot
Fleetwood>Horschel -110
Ancer>Berger -112

like a little less
DJ>Fitzpatrick -119
Scheffler>Wolff -111
EVR>Wieseberger -118

clicking buttons
Cantlay>DeChambeau +117 would have liked a lot pre tourney but biased enough from yesterday to slow pony this - same with the Koepka stuff i'd normally bet against here
Im>Kuchar -115
Niemann>Kisner -123
Spieth>Oosthuizen -117
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Old 07-31-2020, 08:00 AM   #1550
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I bet EVR at slightly better but still like him at that price. It's obviously different than a cut event with way less risk of a guy completely giving up, but your opinions should have changed slightly from pre tourney imo. There is def some signal in Round 1 data.
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