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Old 07-27-2020, 10:15 PM   #1501
4BetBoke
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Going small this week with a saver from my boy Ragey Hatton.

Casey @81.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-7

Niemann @81.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-7

Benny An @151.0 (0.2 units) 20% 1-7

M Hughes @151.0 (0.2 units) 20% 1-7

Bobby Mac @151.0 (0.2 units) 20% 1-7

GMac @301.0 (0.1 units) 20% 1-7

Tyrell Hatton top 20 @2.10 (1.3 units)

Last edited by 4BetBoke; 07-27-2020 at 10:39 PM.
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Old 07-28-2020, 04:41 AM   #1502
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

0.25u Adam Hadwin 300.00 - I don't like Hadwin much here but 300.00 is madness.

I might have to bet Tony this weekend, you can't keep running close and not getting over the line, attributes put JUST outside top 10 but factoring in current performance hes in.

I've got Sndeker coming up a lot in my projections - must be broken lol.
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Old 07-28-2020, 09:55 AM   #1503
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Early reports are in.

I think I'm going to have a ton of Morikawa (9500), Matsuyama (8900), Casey (7800), and Conners (7300).

I might have a bunch of Hovland (9400) and Niemann (7400), too.
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Old 07-28-2020, 01:17 PM   #1504
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've added Conners (0.3u 20% 1-7), seems like this grass at least negates his putting a little
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Old 07-28-2020, 02:23 PM   #1505
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

0.25 Hadwin 300.00
0.25 Mickelson 250.00
0.5 Finau 46.00
0.12 Na 200.00
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Old 07-28-2020, 04:40 PM   #1506
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

46 on Finau is a v good price
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Old 07-28-2020, 04:52 PM   #1507
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by westswindon View Post
0.25 Hadwin 300.00
0.25 Mickelson 250.00
0.5 Finau 46.00
0.12 Na 200.00
These are great lines which book is this I need an account.
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Old 07-28-2020, 09:23 PM   #1508
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

has bookmaker changed their linemaking for golf? lines seem way different since the restart in terms of their accuracy
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Old 07-28-2020, 10:28 PM   #1509
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by alcamist View Post
has bookmaker changed their linemaking for golf? lines seem way different since the restart in terms of their accuracy
They've started moving on action more aggressively. For most of 2018-2019 I could sometimes get as much as 100k down on a match-up w/o moving the line more than ~10c. Now it's 10c every 10k.
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Old 07-29-2020, 01:30 AM   #1510
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

BM opened pretty far off from BOL lines for matchups involving Thomas, Xander and Niemann wow.
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:10 AM   #1511
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by westswindon View Post
0.25 Hadwin 300.00
0.25 Mickelson 250.00
0.5 Finau 46.00
0.12 Na 200.00
0.5 Hatton 34.00

Getting these on the exchanges.
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Old 07-29-2020, 07:08 AM   #1512
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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They've started moving on action more aggressively. For most of 2018-2019 I could sometimes get as much as 100k down on a match-up w/o moving the line more than ~10c. Now it's 10c every 10k.
It seems like a lot of the line "movements" then move back; maybe once you're done betting? I have seem 10+ times in the last 2 weeks them post something like -126/-104, then it goes to +100/-130 and 3 mins later it's -125/-105
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Old 07-29-2020, 07:29 AM   #1513
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

That's the treatment I was getting when I was getting a lot down and actually getting full on stuff, but now the movement is sustained except in the rare instance where someone else maxes the other side way later. I'm sure they do it on an account by account basis though. Time for a new one I guess.
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Old 07-29-2020, 10:23 AM   #1514
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Two tourney matchups I like

Hideki > Koepka -120
Reed > Day -140
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Old 07-29-2020, 10:26 AM   #1515
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

the official fade RR rankings

Rank Golfer
1 Justin Thomas
2 Jon Rahm
3 Rory McIlroy
4 Webb Simpson
5 Patrick Cantlay
6 Bryson DeChambeau
7 Hideki Matsuyama
8 Tony Finau
9 Xander Schauffele
10 Viktor Hovland
11 Collin Morikawa
12 Dustin Johnson
13 Tyrrell Hatton
14 Gary Woodland
15 Patrick Reed
16 Paul Casey
17 Sungjae Im
18 Abraham Ancer
19 Rickie Fowler
20 Sergio Garcia
21 Tommy Fleetwood
22 Matthew Fitzpatrick
23 Billy Horschel
24 Jason Day
25 Matt Kuchar
26 Joaquin Niemann
27 Kevin Na
28 Adam Hadwin
29 Ian Poulter
30 Scottie Scheffler
31 Marc Leishman
32 Chez Reavie
33 Jordan Spieth
34 Corey Conners
35 Brooks Koepka
36 Kevin Streelman
37 Daniel Berger
38 Max Homa
39 J.T. Poston
40 Matthew Wolff
41 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
42 Bubba Watson
43 Kevin Kisner
44 Brandt Snedeker
45 Byeong Hun An
46 Joel Dahmen
47 Ryan Palmer
48 Brendon Todd
49 Erik van Rooyen
50 Shane Lowry
51 Nick Taylor
52 Keegan Bradley
53 Phil Mickelson
54 Michael Thompson
55 Louis Oosthuizen
56 Jason Kokrak
57 Rafa Cabrera Bello
58 Matt Wallace
59 Matt Jones
60 Cameron Champ
61 Danny Willett
62 Cameron Smith
63 Tyler Duncan
64 Mackenzie Hughes
65 Andrew Landry
66 C.T. Pan
67 Henrik Stenson
68 Bernd Wiesberger
69 Graeme McDowell
70 Robert MacIntyre
71 Jazz Janewattananond
72 Sung Kang
73 Haotong Li
74 Shaun Norris
75 Tom Lewis
76 Victor Perez
77 Lucas Herbert
78 Sebastian Soderberg
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:06 AM   #1516
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Looks a lot saner than the ones I've browsed in the past
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:38 AM   #1517
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Note, these are crap, not backtested and I only bet with micro amounts more to make tracking it more fun than anything else

also based off my dfs model which is already far from perfect just for dfs purposes

nowhere near a point to accurately calculate edge so not even going to pretend I know how many units to risk

like a lot
Webb>Xander +115
Deki>Koepka -125
Hatton>Fleetwood +110
Thomas>McIlroy +103

like a little less
Rd1 Ancer>Berger -107
Rd1 Cantlay>DeChambeau +109
Cantlay>Xander +115
Thomas>Rahm +105

like enough to consider but mostly clicking buttons at this point
Streelman>Scheffler +113
Hadwin>Conners +115
Hovland>Berger -118
Finau>Fitzpatrick -107
Im>Willet -148
Rooyen>Oosthuizen +105
DeChambeau>McIlroy +123
Simpson>Cantlay -110
Na>Casey +125
Mickelson>Watson +124
Spieth>Horschel +146
Leishman>RCB -122
RD1 Spieth>Oosthuizen -120
RD 1 Niemann>Kisner -115
Im>Kuchar -113
RD1 Deki>Reed -114
Day>Koepka -111
Woodland>Fowler -112
Hovland>Morikawa +110
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:39 AM   #1518
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Looks a lot saner than the ones I've browsed in the past


it's easier to look good when it's a shorter field of better golfers
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Old 07-29-2020, 11:48 AM   #1519
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I strongly agree with your 'like a lot's', considering firing the 4 seperately and parlayed

Just eyeballing Dekki > Koepka seems like a slam dunk
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:07 PM   #1520
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

how does it look?


......name......win_perc .....fair_win_odds

46970 jon rahm 0.07860 1172
28237 rory mcilroy 0.06416 1459
33448 justin thomas 0.05828 1616
30925 dustin johnson 0.03868 2485
35450 patrick cantlay 0.03760 2560
29221 webb simpson 0.03420 2824
32102 rickie fowler 0.03296 2934
30911 tommy fleetwood 0.03116 3109
28089 jason day 0.03096 3130
47959 bryson dechambeau 0.02948 3292
48081 xander schauffele 0.02920 3325
34360 patrick reed 0.02444 3992
36689 brooks koepka 0.02352 4152
29725 tony finau 0.02132 4590
34363 tyrrell hatton 0.01872 5242
50525 collin morikawa 0.01804 5443
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.01800 5456
31323 gary woodland 0.01732 5674
46717 viktor hovland 0.01696 5796
40098 matthew fitzpatrick 0.01628 6043
25364 paul casey 0.01560 6310
23108 matt kuchar 0.01440 6844
40026 daniel berger 0.01244 7939
34046 jordan spieth 0.01240 7965
29420 billy horschel 0.01228 8043
21528 henrik stenson 0.01220 8097
26851 marc leishman 0.01132 8734
45526 abraham ancer 0.01116 8861
26329 louis oosthuizen 0.01076 9194
21209 sergio garcia 0.01044 9479
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:14 PM   #1521
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Look a little too low on the legit top players
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:30 PM   #1522
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

breaking ties randomly might explain some of it
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:44 PM   #1523
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol hopefully doesn't explain too much of it
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Old 07-29-2020, 02:49 PM   #1524
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

precept, i think you're running into the same issues i struggle with

for whatever reason, hard data in golf doesn't quite separate the wheat from the chaff, when i only look at shots gained stuff it can tell me crazy things so I need to weigh heavily with vegas odds and world rankings as a baseline metric to anchor people into place

unsure of your process though so hard to say exactly but when in doubt i average out with baseline rankings/vegas etc
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Old 07-29-2020, 03:06 PM   #1525
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
precept, i think you're running into the same issues i struggle with

for whatever reason, hard data in golf doesn't quite separate the wheat from the chaff, when i only look at shots gained stuff it can tell me crazy things so I need to weigh heavily with vegas odds and world rankings as a baseline metric to anchor people into place

unsure of your process though so hard to say exactly but when in doubt i average out with baseline rankings/vegas etc
Are you normalizing strokes gained data using field strength or just using the nominal/raw strokes gained data? Weeks like this could be case in point where you have a WGC and opposite field event with two distinctly different field compositions in terms of skill. This is a problem I want to tackle for my model because obviously data from weeks like this will skew a baseline skill determination.

Going 0SG across all categories at WGC is obviously not the same as 0SG across all categories at Barracuda. I just haven't figured out a way to approach this problem yet. Under normal circumstances there are 5-8 weeks a year where the tour plays two events and by not appropriately weighting SG you're going to likely overestimate skill for rookies/lower ranked guys since they are not competing against any of the top 40% of the tour that week.

World ranking does a decent job of at least attributing the idea of field strength, but it's well understood how there is bias in the ranking due its construction.
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