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Old 07-25-2020, 10:45 AM   #1476
rickroll
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by jablo1312 View Post
This as big a DFS bloodbath after it seems? Got mainly 3 or 4 out of 6 through in my 50-50ís and H2Hs, logged into FD/DK expecting carnage and it looks like I might actually win money this week. Guess thatís what happens when like the top 4 favorites MC.
yeah the -2 cut was devastating to me since i was so heavy on henley and he was -1

turned a lot of 5/6 and 4/6 lineups that had hope into big piles of crap

strangely enough, my 3/6 cash lineup should basically break even, cheers for overlay
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Old 07-25-2020, 10:51 AM   #1477
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Update: I got 3/6 in cash.

Got 5/6 for 2 lineups.
Finau, List, Moore, P-Rodg, Si Woo (Seung Yul-Noh)

List, P-Rodg, Harman, Howell, KH Lee (Brooks)


Follow-Up:
Winning the Listener League last week got me into a 3-man with the 2 hosts (Kenny Kim and Tyler Tamboline). Kenny got 2/6, Tyler 1/6, and I got 3/6. Woot!!!!!
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Old 07-25-2020, 10:58 AM   #1478
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by jablo1312 View Post
This as big a DFS bloodbath after it seems? Got mainly 3 or 4 out of 6 through in my 50-50ís and H2Hs, logged into FD/DK expecting carnage and it looks like I might actually win money this week. Guess thatís what happens when like the top 4 favorites MC.
I'm going to get crushed. Anything I have with 3 through is going to be -100% ROI, but I also had some lineups where only 2 got through, so def possible to run good with only 3.
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Old 07-25-2020, 11:17 AM   #1479
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

does anyone have line history for Tommy Gainey/K.J. Choi r3 matchup on bookmaker. was choi -135/+105 gainey when i saw it
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Old 07-25-2020, 11:26 AM   #1480
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i have 15 total lineups and three of them only had one guy get through and a few others only two

pretty sure before this week the worst i ever had was a single one off lineup that was 2/6
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Old 07-25-2020, 07:36 PM   #1481
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

That was a pretty brutal moving day for my 4 players. Was looking like I was headed to a total brick until English gave us a ray of hope with 4 straight birdies to close. Course record tomorrow it is then
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Old 07-26-2020, 04:09 AM   #1482
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

there's a decent chance i could possibly break even this week, have a bunch of 3/6 lines on pace to min cash in gpp lmfao - what a turkey shoot this week
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:29 AM   #1483
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Desperately want to chase what is going to be my worst week in a while on match-ups but not much value out there yesterday/today imo. Usually when I get crushed I can point to something I got wrong that caused most of the issues since golf results are highly correlated but other than thinking Paul Casey is good, I feel like I had the right idea this week, my dudes just sucked at golf.

Thompson 21.4%
Werenski 19.4%
Finau 18.5%
Schwartzel 8.4%
Homa 7%
Davis 2.2%
Watney 1.7%
English 3.6%
Moore 3%
Noren 1.5%
McCarthy 1.5%
Tringale 2.2%
Gooch 1%
Wolff 2.2%
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Old 07-26-2020, 09:42 AM   #1484
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

could always bridge jump with Homa if you have 7%. he's only dude on that list who has a pulse. i'm about the same but lose some %s on homa to give to thompson/werenski
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:21 PM   #1485
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Grillo's finish did me okay. Only lost about 45% this week. That was to be expected after a +1400% week last week.
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Old 07-26-2020, 06:32 PM   #1486
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

British Masters:

Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Min Woo Lee +111 - (Adrien Saddier vrs Min Woo Lee) RISK: 1.98u LOSS -1.98u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Adrian Otaegui -136 - (Adrian Otaegui vrs Sami Valimaki) RISK: 1.54u WIN +1.13u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Richie Ramsay +110 - (Richie Ramsay vrs Jason Scrivener) RISK: 1.34u LOSS -1.34u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Marcus Kinhult +127 - (Lee Westwood vrs Marcus Kinhult) RISK: 0.47u WIN +0.6u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Romain Langasque +105 - (Adri Arnaus vrs Romain Langasque) RISK: 2u WIN +2.1u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Grant Forrest +105 - (Alexander Levy vrs Grant Forrest) RISK: 1.14u WIN +1.2u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Louis De Jager -120 - (Callum Shinkwin vrs Louis De Jager) RISK: 0.27u WIN +0.22u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Marcus Kinhult +154 - (Thomas Detry vrs Marcus Kinhult) RISK: 0.37u WIN +0.57u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Pablo Larrazabal +127 - (Adri Arnaus vrs Pablo Larrazabal) RISK: 0.75u WIN +0.95u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Kalle Samooja +105 - (Kalle Samooja vrs Connor Syme) RISK: 0.55u WIN +0.58u
Golf - EURO PGA - Jack Senior vs. Clement Sordet - Jack Senior -138 RISK: 0.52u LOSS -0.52u
Golf - EURO PGA - Rasmus Hojgaard vs. Aaron Rai - Aaron Rai -114 RISK: 0.42u LOSS -0.42u
Golf - EURO PGA - Jordan Smith vs. Ross Fisher - Jordan Smith -116 RISK: 0.25u WIN +0.22u
Golf - EURO PGA - Romain Langasque vs. Pablo Larrazabal - Romain Langasque -127 RISK: 0.51u LOSS -0.51u
Golf - EURO PGA - Chris Paisley vs. Andrew Johnston - Andrew Johnston -121 RISK: 0.53u LOSS -0.53u (withdrew)
Golf - EURO PGA - Brandon Stone vs. Marc Warren - Brandon Stone -147 RISK: 1.27u WIN +0.86u
Golf - EURO PGA - Lee Westwood vs. Thomas Detry - Thomas Detry -105 RISK: 1.01u LOSS -1.01u
Golf - EURO PGA - Paul Dunne vs. Julian Suri - Julian Suri -147 RISK: 1.54u LOSS -1.54u
Golf - EURO PGA - Alejandro Canizares vs. Renato Paratore - Renato Paratore -127 RISK: 0.7u WIN +0.55u
Golf - EURO PGA - Alexander Bjork vs. Mikko Korhonen - Mikko Korhonen -117 RISK: 0.87u WIN +0.74u
Golf - EURO PGA - Sam Horsfield vs. Marcus Armitage - Sam Horsfield -150 RISK: 3u WIN +2u

13-8 +3.87u on 21.03u risked (18.4% ROI)

3M Open:

Bubba Watson vs. Paul Casey - Paul Casey -157 RISK: 1.06u LOSS -1.06u
Si Woo Kim vs. Ryan Moore - Ryan Moore -157 RISK: 1.65u WIN +1.05u
Matthew Wolff vs. Bubba Watson - Matthew Wolff -111 RISK: 0.28u WIN +0.25u
Will Gordon vs. Patrick Rodgers - Patrick Rodgers -150 RISK: 1.57u WIN +1.05u
Sam Ryder vs. Max Homa - Max Homa -128 RISK: 0.48u WIN +0.38u
Emiliano Grillo vs. Tom Lewis - Emiliano Grillo -105 RISK: 0.94u WIN +0.9u
Lucas Glover vs. Harris English - Harris English -115 RISK: 0.5u WIN +0.43u
Alex Noren vs. Scott Stallings - Alex Noren -105 RISK: 0.61u WIN +0.58u
Brian Harman vs. Peter Uihlein - Brian Harman -185 RISK: 1.71u WIN +0.92u

8-1 +4.5u on 8.8u risked (51.14% ROI)

To Win:

Adam Schenk +12500 RISK: 0.18u LOSS -0.18u
Harris English +2866 RISK: 0.12u LOSS -0.12u
Matthias Schwab +10000 RISK: 0.27u LOSS -0.27u

0-3 -0.57u on 0.57u risked (-100% ROI)

Groups:

Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top Asian - Xinjun Zhang +350 WIN +3.5
Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top Canadian - David Hearn +180 LOSS -1
Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top South African - Erik Van Rooyen +185 LOSS -1

1-2 +1.5 on 3u risked (50% ROI)

Props:

Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Bubba Watson - MISS +190 WIN +1.9
Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Matthew Wolff - MISS +225 LOSS -1
Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Tony Finau - MISS +310 LOSS -1
Golf - Props - 3M Open - Winning Margin - Exactly 1 Shot +250 LOSS -1 (close, birdie on 18)

1-3 -1.1u on 4u risked (-27.5% ROI)
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Old 07-26-2020, 08:10 PM   #1487
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Looking back at the results of my simulations. Guess who was 7th in win percentage at 3.5%?

Yup. Michael Thompson. Top 4 were bad, next 3 great.

Redman
Henley
Casey
Gordon
Finau
Grillo
Thompson
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Old 07-26-2020, 10:47 PM   #1488
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I picked English Schwab Schenk Johnston Langasque Zala Svensson Nunez

Only said those would make top 20 and still lost a few hundred bucks...
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Old 07-27-2020, 12:13 AM   #1489
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
i wouldn't mind a slack channel since i'm on slack 24/7 anyway but discord would just be another app/webpage taking up space that i'd just forget about
Iím interested in joining this if itís gonna happen
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Old 07-27-2020, 01:38 AM   #1490
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

sick results sigs, hope you can find a way to hang around here even if it means strict policy of not sharing plays
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Old 07-27-2020, 07:47 AM   #1491
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I think the new group play should just be bankrolls on Finau not to win on Sundays when he's within a few shots

Casey starting at 101 next week! Here we go again

Last edited by 4BetBoke; 07-27-2020 at 07:52 AM. Reason: Merged 2 posts
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Old 07-27-2020, 08:16 AM   #1492
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sad Panda is Sad but much love Sigs and thanks!

p.s also interested in any off grid sharing group or the like if it happens to happen

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 07-27-2020 at 08:24 AM.
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:11 AM   #1493
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I assume all the Euros will be low owned and low prices. So, I guess I'm here for all the Bobby Mac and possibly Victor Perez.
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:36 AM   #1494
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

No -3k maker this week, which is fine, since these WGCs suck for DFS with the small field and no cut. They do usually post more match-ups at higher limits offshore for them though. Casey also a lock to play 4 rounds, so let's get it.
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:47 AM   #1495
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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No -3k maker this week, which is fine, since these WGCs suck for DFS with the small field and no cut. They do usually post more match-ups at higher limits offshore for them though. Casey also a lock to play 4 rounds, so let's get it.
Oh why you have to say that... Casey +10000 too, I don't even want to look into this before taking that just in case the results tell me not to.

But I swear, this is the LAST Casey chance!
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:58 AM   #1496
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Put a quarter unit on

Simpson +2200
Reed +3500
Na +10000

I can only get Casey at +7500 if I'm able to get him at +10000 I'll make the donation.

Edit: also wanna echo what's been said will def miss having you around sigs been a lot of fun sweating with you, hope you drop in from time to time.

Last edited by deltasum2; 07-27-2020 at 12:07 PM.
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Old 07-27-2020, 02:54 PM   #1497
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

100-1 is an appropriate cut-off for Casey. His putting has entered into Deki territory, so it's hard to imagine him rolling in enough this week to beat this entire field.

Xander at 21-1+ is my only early outright.
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Old 07-27-2020, 03:11 PM   #1498
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I also like An at 145 for hamburger stakes
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:02 PM   #1499
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I liked Chez Reavie until I saw 2+ inches of rain were forecasted for Thursday.
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:53 PM   #1500
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Adrenocromo View Post
I liked Chez Reavie until I saw 2+ inches of rain were forecasted for Thursday.
I wouldn't worry too much about it. The course is 7150 and a par 70. I'm not worried about distance in the slightest.
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