Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

[4BetBoke]

Honestly I didn't know much about him, this will be my first full season betting regularly so I imagine I'll get to know a lot more players and get a feel for them when I have action on them.

I saw him miss priced at 141.0 after his first birdie on the back 9 and was tempted to top up on him, but didn't pull the trigger.

Any thoughts on who you fancy tomorrow? I kinda like Perez at 17.0 (-9), but 2 rounds in a day might be tough on him. Fritelli at 47.0 (-7) could be something. I'm not firing again though.

[4BetBoke]

A bit all over the place, but got the win thanks to Todd's double. When you have a bad start and add horses, it works until it doesn't work, at some stage it becomes a punt. I think I need to get better at just eating the loss, even if it worked out this time, but happy at the prices and times I added Long / Todd.

In for 24.2 units and out for 37.6 units this week after small additions on Horschell and Ortiz.

Weekly Profit: + 12.4 units
Total Profit: + 70.9 units

I'm going to change the unit value to $100 just for simplicity's sake, so with the new value:

Total Profit + 35.45 units

[4BetBoke]

DP World Tour Championship

Patrick Reed @ 17.0 (1.4 units) 20% 1-7
M. Fitzpatrick @ 23.0 (1.1 units) 20% 1-7
Danny Willet @ 46.0 (0.5 units) 25% 1-5
G. Miggliozi @ 151.0 (0.3 units) 25% 1-5

Bernd Wiesberger top 20 @ 1.73 (2.0 units)

Going on strong past performances this week. Willet ('18) and Fitzpatrick ('16) have won this event and Reed has played 3 times in the last 4 years with T2, T10, T10 finishes.

[Precept24]

I min cashed a lineup on DK. I've dropped down from the $3 and $5 to the $1 until I get a better handle on the guys.

After looking at the leaderboard today, I noticed Callum Hill up there. I thought for sure I took him somewhere. No DK lineup.

Then, I remembered I did a couple of lineups on Superdraft. I won a small $3 contest with 39 players and took in $30.

Hill, Long, McNealy, Scott Harrington, Talor Gooch, and Hubbard

BTW, Superdraft is a site without salary caps, but multipliers for weaker players. For example, you can get Brooks, Rory, JT, etc, but they'll only count 1.0x (1.05x) their point value.

My winning lineup had guys who mostly were 1.6x (which is the highest). Again, 6/6 made the cut.

[ligastar]

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

A bit all over the place, but got the win thanks to Todd's double. When you have a bad start and add horses, it works until it doesn't work, at some stage it becomes a punt. I think I need to get better at just eating the loss, even if it worked out this time, but happy at the prices and times I added Long / Todd.

In for 24.2 units and out for 37.6 units this week after small additions on Horschell and Ortiz.

Weekly Profit: + 12.4 units
Total Profit: + 70.9 units

I'm going to change the unit value to $100 just for simplicity's sake, so with the new value:

Total Profit + 35.45 units

Solid picking 4BB!

I lost my only play last week.

[4BetBoke]

Kitayama looks good vying for rookie of the year and Willet can be temperamental when it doesn't go his way, though I liked his outright price at 46.0, which has since been corrected to 41.0.

Nobody else fancy bankrolls on Wiesberger top 20? I had to actively talk myself out of firing huge.

[4BetBoke]

Reed is getting the boot from my line ups. I've been quietly confident on him for a while, but it isn't happening.

[4BetBoke]

Glad I don't have bankroll on Wiesberger top 20. He does this all the time, super conservative all week then hits the gas on Sunday. Maybe should just bet him top 10 on Sundays. Looks like he's just going to par out today.

[Precept24]

I did one Euro Final lineup. Meh.

Mike LV, EVR, Patty Reed, Wiesberger, Willett, and Sergio

The 5-guys not winning could still make a move.


I was planning on doing more research for PGA, but my wife's grandfather died (saw it coming for months), but it takes up time.

I slapped together some DK lineups that mostly suck.

I think I'm going to go back to back on Superdraft. Of the 39 entries, I'm the only one who got 6 out of 6 through the cut. Volume alone should get me the win.

Harman, Furyk, Cook, Long (obvs), Merritt, Sabbatini

[4BetBoke]

The Euro has been tough with Rory and Rahm in the field, not sure what I expected when Rory was starting at 5.0, so maybe I need to lay off with my strategy in these top heavy weeks! Still some Hope with Willet, Fitzpatrick and Wiesberger though.

I took Willet at 25% 1-5 because the price was significantly better than at 20% 1-7 and I'll probably end up paying for that. ( I think the difference was 46.0 and 35.0)

These soft fall events seem like they have the potential to be the most profitable, but I just don't have enough knowledge of the field to feel comfortable in my picks.

Rooting for Todd to go 3 for 3!

Gl on your line ups.

[Precept24]

When you say Willet 1-5, that means he can finish 1st-5th and you win, right? If so, well done sir.

With 1-hole to go, I need Mike L-V to make up that one shot defecit and win in a playoff to maybe cash.

Sergio came back nicely.
Willet was solid.

Reed, EVR, and Bernd stunk.

Edit: Not to be.

[4BetBoke]

Yeah, was pretty shocked to see Wiesberger just fizzle with so much on the line. Still within a shot of top 20, as was Fitzpatrick from top 7 where I had him.

Yes, with Willet my bet / payout goes like this. $50/0.5 units ($25 + $25) @ 46.0. I get paid 25% of 25 x 46 = 287.5. If he were to win I get 25 x 46 + 287 = 1,437.


I normally prefer 20% 1-7 as my each way terms, it aligns well with my overall strategy of trying to minimise the downside on losing weeks, although this will generally be reflected in the price. Willet was mis-priced at 46.0, but only on a site (skybet) offering 25% 1-5.

Reed has been really disappointing. I'm not touching him for a while so be prepared for him to go on a run!

[4BetBoke]

Weekly profit: -2.0 units
Total profit: +33.45 units

I was going to take this week off, but last minute decided to just fire one pick:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout @ 13.0 (1.5 units) 20% 1-7.

[4BetBoke]

Bezuidenhout had a real stinker, needs to birdie his last 8 holes in a row just to make the cut! At least this pick was entertainingly bad.

weekly profit -1.5 units
Total profit +31.95 units

[Precept24]

I did a lineup for giggles.

Harding 7th, Callum Hill 13th, Sterne 14th, Oliver Wilson 61st, and Hugo Leon MC

My other golfer was low owned (sub-2%), low priced (sub-7k), and in the top 10 going into today. Adrian Otaegui shot 80 today and again...no cash for me. If he doesn't shoot 80, I probably min-cash, which I'd prefer.

[ligastar]

I'm going to pick things back up after the new year. I don't trust some numbers when players aren't really playing a normal schedule around the holidays.

[4BetBoke]

Same, nothing is really catching my eye at the moment. I need Sung Jae Im back asap.

[CodythePATRIOT]

Cool thread going on in here. I am a big fan of golf and had success live betting the sport. I will start contributing too once the season picks up. Markets are softer than most.

[ligastar]

Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT

Cool thread going on in here. I am a big fan of golf and had success live betting the sport. I will start contributing too once the season picks up. Markets are softer than most.

[4BetBoke]

My main man is back, so couldn't resist firing a unit on:

Im/Smith > Woodland/Fowler @ 2.1

The working theory here is that Woodland has the potential to just crash and burn, though I think Fowler is a good pairing for him.

Will be back in the new year betting regularly and tracking results. Good to have you with us Cody.

[CodythePATRIOT]

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

Will be back in the new year betting regularly and tracking results. Good to have you with us Cody.

Thanks, I picked up the IM > Woodland bet at 2.20 with a chop being a loss. They offer both options on my book interestingly enough. Never seen that before.

[4BetBoke]

That's a good price, the best I saw was 2.15, but wasn't going to bother opening an account for it. What was the price on win/push on a draw?

Good start for that bet, Im, Im, Im!

[CodythePATRIOT]

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

What was the price on win/push on a draw?

Good start for that bet, Im, Im, Im!

It was like 1.95

Looking good so far...

[CodythePATRIOT]

Tough way to lose but themz is the breaks. Seems like a good pick still, just gave up 2 late.

[4BetBoke]

The stars have aligned in the match ups to pair Im with Woodland:

2.5 units on Im @ 2.15