Iowa!, are your ownership projections key to your edge (a) and/or highly systematic (b)? Trying to figure out if making my own is good use of time or not really. Disclaimer: have never played dfs

Obviously, it seems like they would be important, but rsigley saying he doesn't use em.

I have my own, but they aren't much better than what is publicly available. 90% of my DFS risk comes from cash games with 4 or fewer where it doesn't really matter. I only look at them for the big GPPs and to break a tie between otherwise equal players for cash.

I wouldn't bother.

i've often thought about this but haven't committed the time since yahoo gpp contests small with flatter payouts and like you i'm so heavy cash that i've actually won their gpps and lost money overall on same slate (things like hockey/soccer max gpp earnings is like 500 if you sweep - those are my best sports and i regularly get 2k in cash in hockey and 1k in soccer but they just don't have much for gpps beyond a token 2x entry 12 man with 400 people etc)

but I've always assumed:

1. use parameters like all aggregate ownership can't exceed real life (ie all golfers wouldn't exceed 600% or all QBs not exceed 100% together)

2. track historical ownership - most of model here just keeping tabs on who is generally popular and who isn't

3. adjust for updates in price/news/size of slate - some automatically some manually

4.counterbalance it all ie your scheme towards $$$$$$ QBs then other positions will need to skewer on the cheaper side - i think this is the most difficult part and arguably unnecessary

am i anywhere close to the framework of reasonable ownership model iyo?

i think it'd be a bit easier for golf than team sports where matchups are such a big factor

That seems reasonable enough, but it's just not something I'd worry about until I was an established winner with really good ratings. The golf market is way bigger than it gets credit for. Use the outright and MU markets as guides. If you consistently have huge disagreements with them you're almost certainly doing something wrong.

Ugh, woke up and saw most of my guys did well in the morning, except the DJ +7 w/d to take out 45% of my gpp lineups. Underweight on FD and don't have him at all on Yahoo at least. I guess that's why we crowdsource these things--Precept's model had DJ winning much less often than Doc for a reason.

Juan Soto got the corona right before opening day too, what a news hour to wake up to.

British Masters Round 2:

Golf - Round 2 EURO - Adri Arnaus vs. Romain Langasque - Romain Langasque +105 RISK: 1.33u LOSS -1.33u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Ashley Chesters vs. Callum Shinkwin - Ashley Chesters -115 RISK: 0.32u WIN +0.28u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Justin Harding vs. Alexander Bjork - Justin Harding -110 RISK: 0.28u WIN +0.25u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Brandon Stone vs. Guido Migliozzi - Guido Migliozzi +100 RISK: 0.82u PUSH
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Alexander Levy vs. Jason Scrivener - Jason Scrivener -105 RISK: 1.66u WIN +1.58u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Connor Syme +108 - (Connor Syme vrs Renato Paratore) RISK: 0.7u LOSS -0.7u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Marc Warren +126 - (Marc Warren vrs Clement Sordet) RISK: 0.22u LOSS -0.22u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Jack Senior -128 - (Jack Senior vrs Callum Shinkwin) RISK: 0.67u WIN +0.52u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Sami Valimaki +132 - (Rasmus Hojgaard vrs Sami Valimaki) RISK: 0.15u LOSS -0.15u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Zander Lombard -108 - (Zander Lombard vrs Alexander Levy) RISK: 0.67u WIN +0.62u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Eddie Pepperell -118 - (Eddie Pepperell vrs Adrien Saddier) RISK: 0.12u WIN +0.1u

6-4-1 +0.95u on 6.94u risked

British "We've been exposed" Masters Round 3:

Round 3 Matchup - British - Marcus Kinhult -103 - (Marcus Kinhult vrs Jordan Smith) RISK: 0.67u
Round 3 Matchup - British - Pablo Larrazabal -115 - (Pablo Larrazabal vrs Adrian Otaegui) RISK: 0.4u
Round 3 Matchup - British - Oliver Fisher -128 - (Oliver Fisher vrs Pedro Figueiredo) RISK: 0.32u

for round 1 Charley Hoffman was -129 favorite over Shenk, and for round 2 he is +139 on betcris/bookmaker. How can that be right? Is there a huge correlation between round 1 and 2 that I am not aware of?

I'm a statistics hack but from what research I've done, using round 1 score to predict round 2 had an r-squared of nearly 0. I've been tracking round matchup odds myself the last 3-4 weeks as well and have noticed moves like this.

Anecdotally it seems like a guy who shots a bad first round has fairly substantial moves to more + odds.

I haven't paid close attention to what happens to odds if you have player 1 -120 v player 2 +100 and then p1 shoots -7 and p2 shoots -2 for example, does the line move substantially away from round 1 odds? I'm gonna go back through and take a look maybe after this week to see if hot hand/cold streak is being heavily weighted

Paul f’n Casey.... I loathe you.

I bet Chuck Hoffman here, but you can't bet these blindly. For starters, In Round 1 he was closer to 50/50 than -129. Implied probabilities can be misleading in this way, especially when the vig is absurd. Then when you factor in everything else it starts to get close. Basically, you lose more often on Chuck in the realities where him and Schenk both play poorly than you would in a normal situation since if Hoffman gets off to a bad start he loses all incentive to try. It's golf, and most of these guys try anyway since playing well is actually less work than playing bad, but something seemingly as small as half assing all your 4 footers is worth a good amount.

It's like Paul Casey doesn't even care that I bet on him

Is it possible to self exclude from betting Paul Casey? Can sports books please arrange this service under the gambling help section.

He has actually played pretty solid. Just can't read these greens for ****. Triple down next start imo.

Bet Paul Casey to win, T123
Bet Wolff and Finau to miss cut, currently T3 and T6

Think I got my bets mixed up.

I don’t wanna hear anybody ***** about Paul Casey. He’s been about 15 years of misery for me.

I've got Casey in 9/16 lineups. Jokes on him, though. One of those had Dustin Johnson and I already chalked it up as a loss.

This needs to be done. Brutal.

Let's go Adam Schenk to win!!!

Bubba Watson to miss cut is looking good.

Anyone here still interested in having that discord where we can easily track results and upcoming results


Cheers

i wouldn't mind a slack channel since i'm on slack 24/7 anyway but discord would just be another app/webpage taking up space that i'd just forget about

Slack is perfectly fine with me too

sigs u must be hard at work on that mlb **** if u were quiet all day while golf was on lol

outright mkt is certainly giving out some decent bets if you want to bet on not matthew wolff

I can do slack, too, but I really don't know what I have to offer as a low stakes fish with one big score who runs simulations based on what skills/stats I think are important for the week. I can definitely increase the number of weekly sims I run.

BTW, I really wish I hadn't taken the cheese on OTT-Distance. From what I've seen, distance provides no real advantage here. So many holes are short enough and there's so much water on the course where it doesn't seem like a driver course.

This as big a DFS bloodbath after it seems? Got mainly 3 or 4 out of 6 through in my 50-50’s and H2Hs, logged into FD/DK expecting carnage and it looks like I might actually win money this week. Guess that’s what happens when like the top 4 favorites MC.