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Old 07-23-2020, 01:42 AM   #1426
stoffmakers
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Seems smart to wait for strikeout props to move 60 cents and hope thereís still value instead of getting in 1-2 k in bets are much better lines. Golf I wait until red circles lifted and have a cap for how much I bet which is usually 3 max bets. Even models can misjudge priced and three seems like a good cap where i could be wrong so why keep pounding.

I bet a house every week in golf matchups. Seems like more than enough. Ten years ago I did the stupid insane amount of money in play everyday on random sports and bet every line non stop because obviously I must be right and the market wrong. No point now. Already have everything I need. The only reason still do this is Iím obviously addicted to gambling and donít want to do anything else in life or I would be doing the family, vacation, life. I mean I went on vacation two weeks ago and I spent the entire time inside gambling. Itís obviously an issue.

Why risk ruining everything just so I can bet a million a day again sweating random sports like handball at 2am vs focus just on a couple sports and bet way more than most people and have 0 risk of going broke.

Or just sit home and go broke and wait for the next trust fund check to arrive hoping I run it up like internet hero cash out king
iiirc your handball thread from back in the day was not too much diff than what the crowdsource syndicate has become
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:51 AM   #1427
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
why is everyone pumping up Kristoff Ventura

He got a T21 at Rocket Mortgage but before that he was cut 6 times in a row at great events like Mayakoba, RSM, Sony Open.

He placed ok on Korn Ferry in the last month, but that's Korn Ferry

if you look at the to win odds too he's around 18th favorite
Ventura (Hovland+Norlander as well) have all been SUPER popular in recent weeks at books that accept Scandinavian customers and other books who don't operate in those markets but might copy lines are then following movements based on the Scandi books' risk management lol
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:52 AM   #1428
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

weather adjusted

Paul Casey
Dustin Johnson
Lucas Glover
Harris English
Max Homa
Ryan Moore
Brian Harman
Tony Finau
Charley Hoffman
Russell Henley
Erik van Rooyen
Ryan Armour
Brice Garnett
Vaughn Taylor
Jhonattan Vegas
Branden Grace
Adam Schenk
Doc Redman
Brooks Koepka
Russell Knox
Luke List
Sepp Straka
Sam Burns
Richy Werenski
Dylan Frittelli
Sam Ryder
Henrik Norlander
Cameron Tringale
Matthew Wolff
Bubba Watson
Chris Kirk
Pat Perez
Patrick Rodgers
Tom Hoge
Kyle Stanley
Talor Gooch
Charles Howell III
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Bronson Burgoon
Roberto Castro
Emiliano Grillo
Stewart Cink
Johnson Wagner
Matthew NeSmith
Tim Wilkinson
Austin Cook
Chase Seiffert
Troy Merritt
Cameron Percy
Nick Watney
Cameron Davis
Scott Piercy
Ben Martin
Danny Lee
David Hearn
Chesson Hadley
Scott Stallings
D.J. Trahan
Hudson Swafford
Mark Anderson
Michael Thompson
Jason Dufner
Aaron Baddeley
Harry Higgs
Seamus Power
Alex Cejka
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Zack Sucher
Matthias Schwab
Jonathan Byrd
Denny McCarthy
Ben Taylor
Joseph Bramlett
Adam Long
Aaron Wise
Xinjun Zhang
Charl Schwartzel
Fabian Gomez
Brian Gay
Peter Malnati
Beau Hossler
Peter Uihlein
Luke Donald
Kristoffer Ventura
Scott Harrington
Shawn Stefani
Bo Hoag
Alex Noren
Ricky Barnes
Will Gordon
Si Woo Kim
Wes Roach
J.J. Spaun
Robert Streb
George McNeill
Jamie Lovemark
Patton Kizzire
Bill Haas
Tyler McCumber
Wyndham Clark
Josh Teater
Robby Shelton
Michael Gellerman
Bernd Wiesberger
Andrew Putnam
Michael Gligic
Scott Brown
Kramer Hickok
Brandon Hagy
Keith Mitchell
Tommy Fleetwood
Chris Baker
Chris Stroud
Rob Oppenheim
Dominic Bozzelli
Roger Sloan
Sebastian Cappelen
Rhein Gibson
Doug Ghim
Ryan Brehm
Arjun Atwal
Hank Lebioda
Vincent Whaley
Ted Potter, Jr.
John Senden
Tom Lewis
Nelson Ledesma
Matt Every
Rich Beem
Bo Van Pelt
Ryan Blaum
Robert Garrigus
Tommy Gainey
Seung-yul Noh
Derek Ernst
Ted Purdy
Chad Campbell
Martin Trainer
Parker McLachlin
Daniel Chopra
Hunter Mahan
Sahith Theegala
K.J. Choi
John Merrick
Tom Lehman
Chase Koepka
David Lingmerth
Sangmoon Bae
Greg Chalmers
Brendon de Jonge
Peter Kuest
Tim Herron
Michael Kim
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Old 07-23-2020, 02:39 AM   #1429
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

looking at a casey/glover/english/schenk/henley/moore cash line on yahoo right now
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Old 07-23-2020, 05:05 AM   #1430
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

more i look at it, the less i like henly in there so let's crowdsource it

potential options:
henley
ryder
straka
wise
garnett
stallings
list (hate him in cash but love him this tourney)
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Old 07-23-2020, 06:52 AM   #1431
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've got Henley, Straka, then Stallings
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:06 AM   #1432
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Are vacations still a a thing? I thought we all agreed to stay indoors and gamble until vaccine and then pretend to go on vacations?
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:08 AM   #1433
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Henley's in my yahoo cash lineup too. Of the pivot options I like Wise then Rodgers, then Norlander & Sam Burns. I have Henley a few pts better than the first two who are 2 pts better Burns.
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:13 AM   #1434
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

thanks, gives more confidence to stick with henley, even though i somehow associate him with kansas and thus wish to not play
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:33 AM   #1435
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Henley is crazy cheap on Yahoo. DK priced him at $9200 vs. Harris English at $9000 for comparison (though they're also way off in the other direction). H2H he's a decent favorite over Redman who's $9 more expensive on Yahoo.

I ended up jamming Finau/Casey/Fleetwood on Yahoo by playing Henley and the other guys Yahoo forgot to price up. Don't have Finau, Henley, or Burns at all on DK but a ton of them on Yahoo bc of the difference in pricing all around. You can play a lineup on Yahoo that's $7600 over the cap on DK this week (avg pick is $8333).
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:59 AM   #1436
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Harris English 29.92% owned while priced at 9k is something.

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Old 07-23-2020, 08:08 AM   #1437
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

last minute unregged a bunch of stuff cause it was filled with the nosebleed regs but the stuff that opened up late looked to be about 40% recs so after pulling back from 2k to 200 in cash went back in for some more and wound up about 700 in cash and 400 over 14 additional gpp lines

- no moklovin this week so that's nice and above and beyond seemded to only reg early in the week and not reg newly created contests and it's always nice not having to fight for the lobby when those guys either on vacation or busy at another site
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Old 07-23-2020, 08:15 AM   #1438
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yea that's insane. I thought he'd be 20% owned, would've went underweight had I known.

Played more Vaughn Taylor than I was comfortable with but at least you're overweight there too I guess. Seems like every name I recognize that's decent is on Schwab; was surprised to see him only 9-10% even in double ups. Up against a decent amount of Redman, Burns, Homa, and EVR in h2hs.
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Old 07-23-2020, 08:24 AM   #1439
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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last minute unregged a bunch of stuff cause it was filled with the nosebleed regs but the stuff that opened up late looked to be about 40% recs so after pulling back from 2k to 200 in cash went back in for some more and wound up about 700 in cash and 400 over 14 additional gpp lines

- no moklovin this week so that's nice and above and beyond seemded to only reg early in the week and not reg newly created contests and it's always nice not having to fight for the lobby when those guys either on vacation or busy at another site
Was quick-matched with above & beyond the past two weeks. Last week we had 5 in common and I won with Rory > Bryson. This week we also have 5 in common it's my Schenk vs. his Burns, though I played the same lineup he did elsewhere in cash.
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:47 AM   #1440
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

love those quick matches, player pool is tougher but you can't beat rake free with the occasional free win if you don't get matched

it also gets a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't do cash, i only got 1 h2h taker this week and only for $1
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Old 07-23-2020, 10:56 AM   #1441
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

van Rooyen put 2 drives in the water on 14 and got a quad bogey
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:04 AM   #1442
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

DJ blowup on the par 5 18
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:12 AM   #1443
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

good thing i unlocked DJ/brooks and went to casey/english/glover

gonna need the rest of south africa to play horrible

kyle stanley is the GOAT
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:22 AM   #1444
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yeah sigs i saw that i honestly couldn't tell if it were a troll or a leverage play due to the weak field - still unsure tbh
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:40 AM   #1445
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Why on Earth wouldn't you play DJ or Brooks in big GPPs?
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:45 AM   #1446
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

both were below regression line between my predicted points and an aggregate of predicted ownership?

seems like a leverage thing
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:45 AM   #1447
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Why on Earth wouldn't you play DJ or Brooks in big GPPs?
i assumed from his phrasing it was basically build around them in an all or nothing bid

either way, steaming now i unregged so much cash groups since DJ was chalk city there
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Old 07-23-2020, 11:54 AM   #1448
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Was speaking generally, not criticizing that swap, but seems like your ownership projections were p bad if you thought Casey/English/Glover was a good way to go. Better than losing both ways like me though!
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:04 PM   #1449
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i don't do ownership proj because i have no idea how to do them, just take them from other places. i'm assuming people just guess numbers because they never seem correct and it seems worthless every week
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:08 PM   #1450
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

oh that's just my cash line

I have 10 total lines 2x brooks, 3x DJ

last minute there was some overlay and in those wasn't too worried about ownership and drove home 5x more lines with 4x dj & 2x Brooks

edit: see it wasn't me being spoken to, will go back to the kids table

sigs this is why to play yahoo, you know whichever of the 5 min priced guys that are among the more expensive on DK will be chalk as well as the 5 actual most expensive guys - each week DJ/Rory etc all like 30% owned, sometime like 40%

or just do what all the recs do and spend $10 a month on bs ownership projections from a tout site and feel better about yourself

Last edited by rickroll; 07-23-2020 at 12:13 PM.
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