andrew johnston withdrew after 9 holes

RIP 2 1st round bets, to win, and a full tournament bet

why do we bet on such weak men

have to look at DFS but I dunno about Straka in general. He seems to have ran insanely hot post covid.

Ditch Wyndham Clark for the next guy on your list in that price range and use the latter line-up imo. He withdrew recently with an injury and has been **** since the restart. You don't need/want that volatility in your cash lineups.

Good call. I did realize he WDed two weeks ago. I was going to put Gooch in, but he also has a recent WD. I guess I'm going with a guy who made the cut at the Workday and Rocket Mortgage...but I'd rather not say who it is.

in the $7300 dk range i like Kyle Stanley (who you got!) or Sam Ryder better.

or go down to pay for Grillo, Wise, Wiesberger, Schenk, Garnett, Schwab

I really like Schwab and Schenk this week. PRobably too much. If you pay down for Schenk should give yo another $400 you can waste on Fritteli or Armour if you believe in course history. This week is horrible.

Super cheap Danny Lee could free up way more to get you to Harman. I have Lee only ~56% to make the cut tho. For cash I try to keep it above 60.

Hoge is another good one but he always f's me

Welp, I already have so much Grillo. What's a few more?! Thanks Sigs!

Grillo did good for me in GPPs 2 weeks then I faded him the two weeks he did horrible. He's up and down. Same with Wise. That's why I always hate this 7k range

British Masters Round 1:

Round 1 Matchup - British - Clement Sordet -111 - (Marc Warren vrs Clement Sordet) RISK: 0.72u WIN +0.65u
Round 1 Matchup - British - Jack Senior -119 - (Jack Senior vrs Callum Shinkwin) RISK: 1.4u WIN +1.18u
Round 1 Matchup - British - Andrew Johnston -110 - (Ross Fisher vrs Andrew Johnston) RISK: 0.38u LOSS -0.38u (withdrew)

2-1 +1.45u on 2.5u risked

Update: Added Circa Sports to our golf tracker!

Non NV/CO residents can now see how fortunate those of us who have access to Circa are.

Always played a ton of grillo in good, warms my heart reading it may not have been a fish play

Been way too many days without golf sweats on the go. Gl this week everyone

is there anywhere people are betting futures besides pinn, nitro, bm, bol? matchbook finally dead, where i used to play usually

Bet Fair exchange is the best out for these if you've got access.

still in the US, so i think betfair is nearly impossible? can you get liquidity on other stuff too or is it mostly good for the outright long odds stuff?

Just the outrights. It's pretty bleak betting that market w/o them although BM has gotten better of late. 5 Dimes also worth a look if you can still bet there.

BO has smaller limits but more edge. This was after betting them 3x

British Masters Round 2:

Golf - Round 2 EURO - Adri Arnaus vs. Romain Langasque - Romain Langasque +105 RISK: 1.33u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Ashley Chesters vs. Callum Shinkwin - Ashley Chesters -115 RISK: 0.32u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Justin Harding vs. Alexander Bjork - Justin Harding -110 RISK: 0.28u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Brandon Stone vs. Guido Migliozzi - Guido Migliozzi +100 RISK: 0.82u
Golf - Round 2 EURO - Alexander Levy vs. Jason Scrivener - Jason Scrivener -105 RISK: 1.66u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Connor Syme +108 - (Connor Syme vrs Renato Paratore) RISK: 0.7u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Marc Warren +126 - (Marc Warren vrs Clement Sordet) RISK: 0.22u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Jack Senior -128 - (Jack Senior vrs Callum Shinkwin) RISK: 0.67u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Sami Valimaki +132 - (Rasmus Hojgaard vrs Sami Valimaki) RISK: 0.15u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Zander Lombard -108 - (Zander Lombard vrs Alexander Levy) RISK: 0.67u
Round 2 Matchup - British - Eddie Pepperell -118 - (Eddie Pepperell vrs Adrien Saddier) RISK: 0.12u

you can play 3x on BOL euro round matchups and they don't move it?

it moved. i got langasque +120, +117, +111. still value on +105 but i'm risk adverse so iowa!444 can make fun of me for not maxing it 10x

I don't really care how much or little anyone else bets. Just find it funny when someone spends a decade+ talking about how wealthy they are but then as soon they start posting plays they out themselves as being afraid to bet more than 3k on a strike out prop or 1.5k on a BOL golf opener.

It's an amusing contradiction.

Seems smart to wait for strikeout props to move 60 cents and hope there’s still value instead of getting in 1-2 k in bets are much better lines. Golf I wait until red circles lifted and have a cap for how much I bet which is usually 3 max bets. Even models can misjudge priced and three seems like a good cap where i could be wrong so why keep pounding.

I bet a house every week in golf matchups. Seems like more than enough. Ten years ago I did the stupid insane amount of money in play everyday on random sports and bet every line non stop because obviously I must be right and the market wrong. No point now. Already have everything I need. The only reason still do this is I’m obviously addicted to gambling and don’t want to do anything else in life or I would be doing the family, vacation, life. I mean I went on vacation two weeks ago and I spent the entire time inside gambling. It’s obviously an issue.

Why risk ruining everything just so I can bet a million a day again sweating random sports like handball at 2am vs focus just on a couple sports and bet way more than most people and have 0 risk of going broke.

Or just sit home and go broke and wait for the next trust fund check to arrive hoping I run it up like internet hero cash out king

Cool. Capping at # of bets instead of a % of roll or even a set dollar amount is really weird to me but we all gotta do what works best for ourselves I guess.

I feel like the entire world, including myself, is shitting all over Koepka this week so he prob gonna win. Prob should hedge with some BK in the MM but won't.

have 0 on or against koepka if that adds to your algo at all

first time i've seen this in a while. either top 20% projections are horrible, proj ownership, or people are crazy

see the same thing for 7k-8k range

Yea I'm fully fading Doc/EVR/Burns on DK. Burns is the min on Yahoo (for lower % of cap than DK too) and fine losing if the other chalk comes through. I'm pretty high on Harman/Moore also and mostly playing them over our guy Vegas for $1-200 more.

i locked DJ/Brooks in milly maker and went

casey/glover/english/wise/schwab/schenk in SE/Cash

why is everyone pumping up Kristoff Ventura

He got a T21 at Rocket Mortgage but before that he was cut 6 times in a row at great events like Mayakoba, RSM, Sony Open.

He placed ok on Korn Ferry in the last month, but that's Korn Ferry

if you look at the to win odds too he's around 18th favorite

new rankings for this tourney, scary how much my model also loves english, broken clock is right twice a day amirite

will be manually dropping down DJ ownership a bit in gpp because on yahoo and can easily see him over 50% owned

G
Paul Casey
Dustin Johnson
Harris English
Ryan Moore
Brian Harman
Tony Finau
Russell Henley
Erik van Rooyen
Lucas Glover
Doc Redman
Brooks Koepka
Max Homa
Charley Hoffman
Dylan Frittelli
Sam Ryder
Henrik Norlander
Ryan Armour
Patrick Rodgers
Brice Garnett
Vaughn Taylor
Kyle Stanley
Jhonattan Vegas
Branden Grace
Adam Schenk
Talor Gooch
Charles Howell III
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Russell Knox
Luke List
Sepp Straka
Sam Burns
Emiliano Grillo
Matthew NeSmith
Richy Werenski
Cameron Tringale
Matthew Wolff
Chase Seiffert
Bubba Watson
Chris Kirk
Pat Perez
Cameron Percy
Tom Hoge
Cameron Davis
Scott Piercy
David Hearn
Chesson Hadley
Scott Stallings
Hudson Swafford
Bronson Burgoon
Roberto Castro
Jason Dufner
Stewart Cink
Johnson Wagner
Harry Higgs
Tim Wilkinson
Seamus Power
Austin Cook
Alex Cejka
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Matthias Schwab
Troy Merritt
Denny McCarthy
Nick Watney
Adam Long
Aaron Wise
Ben Martin
Xinjun Zhang
Fabian Gomez
Brian Gay
D.J. Trahan
Peter Uihlein
Luke Donald
Danny Lee
Shawn Stefani
Mark Anderson
Joseph Bramlett
Michael Thompson
Alex Noren
Aaron Baddeley
Will Gordon
Si Woo Kim
George McNeill
Jamie Lovemark
Zack Sucher
Bill Haas
Jonathan Byrd
Ben Taylor
Josh Teater
Charl Schwartzel
Peter Malnati
Andrew Putnam
Beau Hossler
Scott Brown
Kramer Hickok
Kristoffer Ventura
Scott Harrington
Keith Mitchell
Bo Hoag
Tommy Fleetwood
Chris Baker
Chris Stroud
Ricky Barnes
Wes Roach
J.J. Spaun
Rob Oppenheim
Robert Streb
Roger Sloan
Patton Kizzire
Brandon Hagy
Tyler McCumber
Wyndham Clark
Sebastian Cappelen
Robby Shelton
Michael Gellerman
Rhein Gibson
Bernd Wiesberger
Michael Gligic
Ryan Brehm
Dominic Bozzelli
Arjun Atwal
Hank Lebioda
Doug Ghim
Vincent Whaley
Ted Potter, Jr.
John Senden
Tom Lewis
Nelson Ledesma
Matt Every
Seung-yul Noh
Rich Beem
Bo Van Pelt
Ted Purdy
Ryan Blaum
Chad Campbell
Robert Garrigus
Tommy Gainey
Hunter Mahan
Derek Ernst
Sahith Theegala
Tom Lehman
Chase Koepka
David Lingmerth
Martin Trainer
Parker McLachlin
Sangmoon Bae
Daniel Chopra
Brendon de Jonge
Peter Kuest
K.J. Choi
John Merrick
Tim Herron
Greg Chalmers
Michael Kim