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Old 07-21-2020, 01:50 PM   #1376
Precept24
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
It's not complicated. The more sims you run, the closer the results will be to the median reality of your model. If I were betting openers for .01% of my roll then I would probably run 1000 but since I am betting big it seems worth it to take the extra 5 minutes to run 50k.
It's 100% me being lazy. If I can run 200 sims, I can run 1000 sims. When I first started, I was pretty inefficient with running my sims. I was running simulated rounds, then turning them into events. Now, I'm simulating events; so I'm 4x as efficient.

I should do 1000. I've done 200. DJ at 4.5% to win, Brooks 2%, Finau 3%, Fleetwood 3%, Casey 7.5%, Henley 6%, Redman 9.5%, Glover 3%.


I'm really looking at the Win % for guys up top, Top 10-20% for 8-9k guys, and making the cut % for 6k guys.
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:02 PM   #1377
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i added betonlin to this thing

http://crowdsourcesyndicate.info/golf/

i don't know why BM has so much trouble with dates for the euro events. it happens every week. they set the wrong date, then take everything down and open it with a new date

i'll add 5d and DK then make it into one table

then we will be super knowledgeable about golf movement
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:03 PM   #1378
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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You're not wrong.

However, here's what I'm seeing...DJ is:
-4th in SG-OTT, but 137th in Accuracy off the tee
-19th in Proximity from 125-150
-19th in Proximity from 175-200 but 80th in GIR from 175-200
-For longer par 3s and 4s and on the par 5s, he's 6th in proximity from 200-225, but 55th in the field in GIR from 200+.

I might add in a little Distance off the tee and rerun without the OUTs.
Forget accuracy this week, there isnít very much rough on the golf course. Most of the penalty areas can be removed by club selection if necessary off the tee. Accuracy to fit to course imo should only be considered when the relative advantage of distance is reduced (ie Harbor Town, maybe Sawgrass) and this is usually only at courses where fairways end running into hazards where players are all forced to play to a specific distance. Twin cities is decidedly not that course so distance should have its usual advantage. The advantage of distance will be well expressed with Sg ott, I think you need to weight that much more heavily with your sims than you are at the sacrifice of accuracy?
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:34 PM   #1379
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Forget accuracy this week, there isnít very much rough on the golf course. Most of the penalty areas can be removed by club selection if necessary off the tee. Accuracy to fit to course imo should only be considered when the relative advantage of distance is reduced (ie Harbor Town, maybe Sawgrass) and this is usually only at courses where fairways end running into hazards where players are all forced to play to a specific distance. Twin cities is decidedly not that course so distance should have its usual advantage. The advantage of distance will be well expressed with Sg ott, I think you need to weight that much more heavily with your sims than you are at the sacrifice of accuracy?
I'm using both distance and accuracy. I guess I'm basically using Ball Striking.

There is some water on the course. Since we're talking DG, DG shows that Accuracy off the tee is a more important stat this week. I think that might be since there are a handful of non-driver holes negating distance off the tee.
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Old 07-21-2020, 02:58 PM   #1380
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

FanDuel Tournament Matchup (3M Open)

Harris English > Bubba Watson -115
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Old 07-21-2020, 03:10 PM   #1381
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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maybe datagolf should run more sims

they're borderline unprofitable for the year in golfs most profitable year
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whats crazy about dg too is they're grading their lines vs bet365

you don't even need a model or a functioning brain to beat bet365

the fact that they're not banned there means they're either betting $1 units or not betting.
Their model seems good to me but they haven't properly regressed it to the odds they are betting against and so (especially before they upped their EV thresholds recently) they have been betting a bunch of stuff where their edge is negative.

They think they've corrected this by using a small kelly fraction etc but I don't think they fully grasp how much the vig they are betting into matters (esp given they don't line shop).

The vig on bet365's 3balls is almost 10% and yet they are (were?) placing 3-ball wagers with a completely unadjusted EV of 3%, which would imply their model would get at least a 75% weight in an ensemble of the two, which seems... optimistic.
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Old 07-21-2020, 03:12 PM   #1382
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm still steaming that I only discovered Streelman was lock of the century once it was too late to act.
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Old 07-21-2020, 03:53 PM   #1383
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'm using both distance and accuracy. I guess I'm basically using Ball Striking.

There is some water on the course. Since we're talking DG, DG shows that Accuracy off the tee is a more important stat this week. I think that might be since there are a handful of non-driver holes negating distance off the tee.
I think the consideration of one year of course history data may be important? Idk how youíre doing this, but course history will be one year of data if you are only using twin cities and not having a similarity index. I have no idea how to think about course history broadly with any confidence, but given sample size Iíd probably want to really solely on my skill assessments.

Admittedly I am familiar with this course and accuracy only struck me as moderately important as you had room to hit it as far up as you want With wide corridors on every hole minus maybe 4, maybe 10 and then 14-16. So I am probably looking at it with some bias.
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Old 07-21-2020, 04:04 PM   #1384
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm not really using any course history.

How do we know guys who played well last year are going to play well this year? How do we know guys who was playing poorly last year going into this event, who's playing well now?

I tend to focus mostly on setting a probability for making eagles, birdies, pars, bogies, and doubles. I set a bass line, say 25% on the easier par 4s, then adjust them upward or downward based on their skills compared to the field.

e.g. In this week's field, Lucas Glover is 17th in SG-OTT, 41st in Distance, 26th in Accuracy, 13th in SG-APP, and 7th in SG-Diff. So his short par 4 birdie probability for me is among the highest at 32.7%. I also said probabilities for pars, bogeys, hole outs, and doubles.

Then I run the random number generator which translates into a score for each hole.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Last edited by Precept24; 07-21-2020 at 04:21 PM. Reason: Spelling
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Old 07-21-2020, 04:07 PM   #1385
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Euro tour R1 3-balls

Draftkings
Richie Ramsay +130 / Aaron Rai +160 / Francesco Laporta +270

Fanduel
David Howell +350 / Alexander Levy -110 / Masahiro Kawamura +195
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Old 07-21-2020, 04:45 PM   #1386
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

popular topic on golf podcasts this week: bankroll management

wonder why
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Old 07-21-2020, 04:50 PM   #1387
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Draftkings will only let me bet $71.96 and $79.15 on Matthias Schwab Top 10 and Top 20 respectively.. how did they arrive at these limits
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Old 07-21-2020, 06:53 PM   #1388
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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popular topic on golf podcasts this week: bankroll management

wonder why
I didn't hear a thing about it on the Degens.
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Old 07-21-2020, 07:56 PM   #1389
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Draftkings will only let me bet $71.96 and $79.15 on Matthias Schwab Top 10 and Top 20 respectively.. how did they arrive at these limits
I used to see a lot of ~$550/$280/$115 max wins, which seems to correspond to 500/250/100 euros. Everything seemed to be max win, which was really annoying betting longshots/underdogs.
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Old 07-21-2020, 07:58 PM   #1390
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I predict next weeks podcast topics will be maximizing juicy deposit bonuses and the NBA return--no need to talk about 3M results it'll all be in the past at that point gotta move on.
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Old 07-21-2020, 08:47 PM   #1391
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I used to see a lot of ~$550/$280/$115 max wins, which seems to correspond to 500/250/100 euros. Everything seemed to be max win, which was really annoying betting longshots/underdogs.
Yes, this makes sense. I figured it was a max win but it seemed to be such a random amount b/c it didn't correspond to a round dollar amount.
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:18 PM   #1392
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Does betfair have an API that is scrapable for Americans? In addition to becoming super knowledgeable about matchup movements I'd be curious to start tracking betfair To Win markets. Or is there no way to get any type of non-delayed feed without having an address and bank account overseas?
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:35 PM   #1393
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Is what shows up on the website delayed?

https://ero.betfair.com/www/sports/e...ER_DESCRIPTION
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:38 PM   #1394
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Hmm I guess this gives it away, ignore me lol:

<isMarketDataDelayed>true</isMarketDataDelayed>
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:49 PM   #1395
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Thanks this is actually useful even if a bit delayed. From a quick google search sounds like you have to have a funded betfair account to get access to the live api, was hoping maybe there was a trick for Americans who arenít trying to bet just get the data but maybe not.
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Old 07-21-2020, 11:08 PM   #1396
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

3M Open:

Bubba Watson vs. Paul Casey - Paul Casey -157 RISK: 1.06u
Si Woo Kim vs. Ryan Moore - Ryan Moore -157 RISK: 1.65u
Matthew Wolff vs. Bubba Watson - Matthew Wolff -111 RISK: 0.28u
Will Gordon vs. Patrick Rodgers - Patrick Rodgers -150 RISK: 1.57u
Sam Ryder vs. Max Homa - Max Homa -128 RISK: 0.48u
Emiliano Grillo vs. Tom Lewis - Emiliano Grillo -105 RISK: 0.94u
Lucas Glover vs. Harris English - Harris English -115 RISK: 0.5u
Alex Noren vs. Scott Stallings - Alex Noren -105 RISK: 0.61u
Brian Harman vs. Peter Uihlein - Brian Harman -185 RISK: 1.71u
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Old 07-21-2020, 11:22 PM   #1397
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

can only find 2 r1 bets with value

Round 1 Matchup - 3M - Joseph Bramlett -120 - (Joseph Bramlett vrs JJ Spaun) RISK: 1.05u

Round 1 Matchup - 3M - Max Homa -108 - (Luke List vrs Max Homa) RISK: 0.38u

this week is horrible

these for euro

Round 1 Matchup - British - Clement Sordet -111 - (Marc Warren vrs Clement Sordet) RISK: 0.72u
Round 1 Matchup - British - Jack Senior -119 - (Jack Senior vrs Callum Shinkwin) RISK: 1.4u
Round 1 Matchup - British - Andrew Johnston -110 - (Ross Fisher vrs Andrew Johnston) RISK: 0.38u
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:10 AM   #1398
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I read that Carlos Ortiz was OUT for the week.

Euro News
I decided to play a $1 single entry with guys I remember from when I paid attention. I checked yesterday to see if any of the 6 were OUT. Turns out, Hugo Leon is in fact OUT. Oops.

Let's see if my 5-man team of Arnaus, Langasque, Harding, Warren, and Guido can min-cash.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:40 AM   #1399
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

What's the better 3M Cash Lineup?

Casey, Redman, Moore, Straka, Gordon, Grillo

or

Casey, English, Van Rooyen, Hoffman, Stanley, Clark
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Old 07-22-2020, 12:02 PM   #1400
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

beef played 9 holes @ 4 over and said to hell with it
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