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Old 07-20-2020, 02:55 PM   #1351
critiakx2
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yahoo lineup is pretty obvious this week I think. Trying to decide on two of the following four: Rodgers/Schenk/Stallings/Burns. Put in Rodgers/Stallings for the dummy lineup but I think maybe I'm overrating them on recent performance. Will need to look into it a bit.

Pretty big salary differences between the sites this week. FD relatively cheaper on all the top guys and more expensive on the mid range. DK put up a second single-entry $200 with a better structure than the crazy one sigs posted. 20% of field pays, 2x min cash, 20% to first; much smaller contest though with 416 vs. 1666 entries.
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Old 07-20-2020, 03:05 PM   #1352
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
Yahoo lineup is pretty obvious this week I think. Trying to decide on two of the following four: Rodgers/Schenk/Stallings/Burns. Put in Rodgers/Stallings for the dummy lineup but I think maybe I'm overrating them on recent performance. Will need to look into it a bit.

Pretty big salary differences between the sites this week. FD relatively cheaper on all the top guys and more expensive on the mid range. DK put up a second single-entry $200 with a better structure than the crazy one sigs posted. 20% of field pays, 2x min cash, 20% to first; much smaller contest though with 416 vs. 1666 entries.
Yeah I don't know about those 4 but pretty sure I'll be 100% Casey, actually kind of excited because this week plays are less obvious to the button clickers

Already regged 1.5k, may back off some of those if I don't like the opponents in the pool but strongly considering going big this week hope to run model tomorrow
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:10 PM   #1353
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Fiddled with Homa, Todd, Ortiz, Taylor, Kim, Grillo but decided to just stick with the 3 I'm happiest with:

Paul Casey @ 21.0 (1.8 units) 20% 1-8
Harris English @ 34.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
Sepp Straka @ 67.0 (0.65 units) 20% 1-8

Due a bink imho
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Old 07-20-2020, 04:52 PM   #1354
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

sad my BM to win limits are only 50k this week. why would a global pandemic do this to us

English +2866 RISK: 0.12u
Schenk +12500 RISK: 0.18u
Schwab +10000 RISK: 0.27u

hope it's because it just opened

British Masters

Andrew Johnston +5500 RISK: 0.2u
Romain Langasque +5000 RISK: 0.17u
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Old 07-20-2020, 05:14 PM   #1355
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added Schenk (0.3 units) and Schwab (0.4 units). Cheers and gl us
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Old 07-20-2020, 06:17 PM   #1356
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
sad my BM to win limits are only 50k this week. why would a global pandemic do this to us
crazy
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Old 07-20-2020, 09:24 PM   #1357
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Price Cutter Charity Championship (KF Tour)

Will Zalatoris +700 [+611]
Svesson +4000 [+3229]
Nunez +7500 [+5197]

Same guys as usual
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Old 07-20-2020, 10:05 PM   #1358
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Anyone good that can post a betting sheet? Trynna catch up on the last good takes
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Old 07-20-2020, 10:08 PM   #1359
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by jonsnow1 View Post
Anyone good that can post a betting sheet? Trynna catch up on the last good takes
Follow Sigs. Do what he does.
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Old 07-20-2020, 10:13 PM   #1360
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Problem is I cant even read the bet to convert it to a betting sheet on Bet365, Id be ready to pay for someone just to guide me on understanding the bets
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Old 07-21-2020, 12:11 AM   #1361
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Problem is I cant even read the bet to convert it to a betting sheet on Bet365, Id be ready to pay for someone just to guide me on understanding the bets
jon, i understand at the beginning it can be intimidating

i'm happy to help you but this thread is not the place to do it, create a new thread and share the link or just keep being active in general on the site and soon enough they'll unlock private messaging and then pm me and i can walk you through it with screenshots
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Old 07-21-2020, 04:17 AM   #1362
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Any of you guys interested or already have a Discord chat set up?

Amazing work here you heroes.
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Old 07-21-2020, 08:34 AM   #1363
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Running my sims now. At first glance, Dustin Johnson is an easy fade (been said by others, but my simulations confirm it) and I'll be heavy on Doc Redman (less repetitive). I'll report back with more results.
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:27 AM   #1364
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Anything that has DJ at 1% and Doc Redman at 11% needs to be re-thought.
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Old 07-21-2020, 11:03 AM   #1365
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You're not wrong.

However, here's what I'm seeing...DJ is:
-4th in SG-OTT, but 137th in Accuracy off the tee
-19th in Proximity from 125-150
-19th in Proximity from 175-200 but 80th in GIR from 175-200
-For longer par 3s and 4s and on the par 5s, he's 6th in proximity from 200-225, but 55th in the field in GIR from 200+.

I might add in a little Distance off the tee and rerun without the OUTs.
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Old 07-21-2020, 11:17 AM   #1366
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
You're not wrong.

However, here's what I'm seeing...DJ is:
-4th in SG-OTT, but 137th in Accuracy off the tee
-19th in Proximity from 125-150
-19th in Proximity from 175-200 but 80th in GIR from 175-200
-For longer par 3s and 4s and on the par 5s, he's 6th in proximity from 200-225, but 55th in the field in GIR from 200+.

I might add in a little Distance off the tee and rerun without the OUTs.
Are you even weighing the fact that he is one of the best golfers in the world? Course stuff matters a little, but true talent level should be by far your biggest input.
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Old 07-21-2020, 12:13 PM   #1367
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

200 Sims isn't even remotely close to enough, add a few zeroes
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Old 07-21-2020, 12:19 PM   #1368
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

if you add 1's instead of zeros that's so many more sims

Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Bubba Watson - MISS +190
Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Matthew Wolff - MISS +225
Golf - Make or Miss Cut - 3M Open - Tony Finau - MISS +310
Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top Asian - Xinjun Zhang +350
Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top Canadian - David Hearn +180
Golf - Groups - 3M Open - Top South African - Erik Van Rooyen +185
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Old 07-21-2020, 12:24 PM   #1369
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

the British Masters 2020

Bookmaker:

Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Min Woo Lee +111 - (Adrien Saddier vrs Min Woo Lee) RISK: 1.98u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Adrian Otaegui -136 - (Adrian Otaegui vrs Sami Valimaki) RISK: 1.54u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Richie Ramsay +110 - (Richie Ramsay vrs Jason Scrivener) RISK: 1.34u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Marcus Kinhult +127 - (Lee Westwood vrs Marcus Kinhult) RISK: 0.47u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Romain Langasque +105 - (Adri Arnaus vrs Romain Langasque) RISK: 2u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Grant Forrest +105 - (Alexander Levy vrs Grant Forrest) RISK: 1.14u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Louis De Jager -120 - (Callum Shinkwin vrs Louis De Jager) RISK: 0.27u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Marcus Kinhult +154 - (Thomas Detry vrs Marcus Kinhult) RISK: 0.37u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Pablo Larrazabal +127 - (Adri Arnaus vrs Pablo Larrazabal) RISK: 0.75u
Tournament Matchup - British Masters - Kalle Samooja +105 - (Kalle Samooja vrs Connor Syme) RISK: 0.55u

Betonline:

Golf - EURO PGA - Jack Senior vs. Clement Sordet - Jack Senior -138 RISK: 0.52u
Golf - EURO PGA - Rasmus Hojgaard vs. Aaron Rai - Aaron Rai -114 RISK: 0.42u
Golf - EURO PGA - Jordan Smith vs. Ross Fisher - Jordan Smith -116 RISK: 0.25u
Golf - EURO PGA - Romain Langasque vs. Pablo Larrazabal - Romain Langasque -127 RISK: 0.51u
Golf - EURO PGA - Chris Paisley vs. Andrew Johnston - Andrew Johnston -121 RISK: 0.53u
Golf - EURO PGA - Brandon Stone vs. Marc Warren - Brandon Stone -147 RISK: 1.27u
Golf - EURO PGA - Lee Westwood vs. Thomas Detry - Thomas Detry -105 RISK: 1.01u
Golf - EURO PGA - Paul Dunne vs. Julian Suri - Julian Suri -147 RISK: 1.54u
Golf - EURO PGA - Alejandro Canizares vs. Renato Paratore - Renato Paratore -127 RISK: 0.7u
Golf - EURO PGA - Alexander Bjork vs. Mikko Korhonen - Mikko Korhonen -117 RISK: 0.87u
Golf - EURO PGA - Sam Horsfield vs. Marcus Armitage - Sam Horsfield -150 RISK: 3u
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Old 07-21-2020, 12:47 PM   #1370
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Golf - Props - 3M Open - Winning Margin - Exactly 1 Shot +250 this prop too
make sure to bet the 3m and not the euro event
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:17 PM   #1371
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Are you even weighing the fact that he is one of the best golfers in the world? Course stuff matters a little, but true talent level should be by far your biggest input.
Yes; I've included SG-Diff, as well. I'm rerunning things now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sabaneta View Post
200 Sims isn't even remotely close to enough, add a few zeroes
I did 1000 once, and I saw no significant difference from when I ran 200. Anyway, I run the sims to find names and guide some decision making. I still have the final say as to who goes into my lineups as I am the one pushing the submit button. I can override the sims if I'd like.
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:25 PM   #1372
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

It's not complicated. The more sims you run, the closer the results will be to the median reality of your model. If I were betting openers for .01% of my roll then I would probably run 1000 but since I am betting big it seems worth it to take the extra 5 minutes to run 50k.
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:31 PM   #1373
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

maybe datagolf should run more sims

they're borderline unprofitable for the year in golfs most profitable year
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:34 PM   #1374
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lol, obviously garbage in then garbage out no matter how many you run, and at a certain point the increase in accuracy becomes super marginal but for instance, I could run 1k and DJ would win 11% of them and the next 1k he could win only 8%. That's a meaningful difference.
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:36 PM   #1375
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

whats crazy about dg too is they're grading their lines vs bet365

you don't even need a model or a functioning brain to beat bet365

the fact that they're not banned there means they're either betting $1 units or not betting.
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