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Old 11-05-2019, 05:47 PM   #101
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I only looked briefly on stars, I'll have to shop the price properly before betting, but it wasn't what you're looking for: 1.83/-120.

I'm assuming any book can set matchups whatever way they see fit? They generally all seem pretty close. I like Reed > Rose, he's definitely teasing form, but price hasn't been there from what I've seen for outright betting.
In my old system (where I'd take certain long faves), the MacIntyre -120 Noren would've been a "go".

In general, books seem to be close. Pinny, of course, has lower juice, so better lines (in general). Also, sometimes you'll find some tournament match-ups offered by some books but not certain books.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:31 PM   #102
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Turkish airlines open, All outright bets are each way (20% 1-7):

Wiesberger @21.0 (2.4 units)
Macintyre @26.0 (2.0 units)
Kitayama @ 41.0 (1.2 units)

Robert MacIntyre v Alexander Noren @ 1.82 (2.0 units)
Bernd Wiesberger v Matthew Wallace @ 1.91 (1.0 units)

Has been tough staying awake for the Asian leg in the UK, so will be a nice change to be able to follow the Euro tour bets in the morning with coffee then fire up poker once it's over.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:50 AM   #103
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Get your WDs here. I might do another lineup with Bernd, but who knows?

Bobby Mac, Danny Willett, Victor Perez, Adri Arnaus, Matthew Southgate, Joakim Lagergren

Seems like there's a premium on accuracy off the tee, this week. So I'm going to load up on guys with SG-OTT, SG-APP, Fairway Pct, and SG Differential. LOL Putting here. It seems like this is a relatively easy course to put on, so Guido might be in play.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:20 AM   #104
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Get your WDs here. I might do another lineup with Bernd, but who knows?

Bobby Mac, Danny Willett, Victor Perez, Adri Arnaus, Matthew Southgate, Joakim Lagergren

Seems like there's a premium on accuracy off the tee, this week. So I'm going to load up on guys with SG-OTT, SG-APP, Fairway Pct, and SG Differential. LOL Putting here. It seems like this is a relatively easy course to put on, so Guido might be in play.
RIP Kitayama.
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Old 11-07-2019, 04:25 AM   #105
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Did you consider Shubhankar Sharma Precept? I've heard the commentators say the Indians hit it straight a bunch, but the stats aren't really there. 81.0
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Old 11-07-2019, 06:53 AM   #106
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've spent the entire time since he went deep in Mexico a couple of years ago being disappointed by him.

I've been on him and he's faltered and when I fade him, he does well. I just don't have a feel for him yet.
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Old 11-08-2019, 06:44 AM   #107
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good call on Sharma. Nice Rd 2 so far to put himself in the mix.
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Old 11-08-2019, 07:30 PM   #108
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

What a round by Bobby Mac, pretty crazy that he parred 3 of the 5 par 5's on route to his 63.
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Old 11-08-2019, 10:36 PM   #109
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added Saturday 3 ball:

Victor Perez / Shane Lowry / Scott Hend @2.70 (1.0 units). I mainly bet this because I had an offer to use, but will treat it as a regular bet.

Looks like my match ups this week will be a close sweat. I still really fancy Macintyre > Noren though and with Wallace's touch and go form I may still get away with it after a very lackluster opening two days from Wiesberger.
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Old 11-10-2019, 11:33 AM   #110
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Really exciting Sunday to follow with Kitayama shooting 8 under to get into a 6 way play off and eventually missing a 7 foot putt for the win, to Wallace going double, double, bogey, par, bogey for my Wiesberger bet to come in.

Pretty close to a big win, unfortunately didn't see any sensible hedging opportunities.

Weekly profit: +7.0 units
Total profit: +58.5 units

Looking forward to South Africa next week. I think I'll definitely have some action on Perez.
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Old 11-11-2019, 05:39 PM   #111
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 11-11-2019, 05:44 PM   #112
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 11-11-2019, 06:40 PM   #113
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 11-11-2019, 07:49 PM   #114
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Nedbank Golf Challenge: (all bets are EW 20% 1-7):

Stenson @ 15.0 (4.0 units)
Macintyre @ 21.0 (2.8 units)
HaoTong Li @ 23.0 (3.0 units)

This week we need length and accuracy off the Tee (when do we not?) and tidy approach shots into the small greens. I normally wouldn't bet Stenson, especially at this price - but he has done really well at this venue in the past

HaoTong Li played well in China before his eventual collapse a few weeks back, but more importantly he is T4 and T5 in this tournament the last 2 years.

Mayakoba Golf Classic:

Niemann @31.0 (2.4 units) (20% 1-7)

I planned on skipping the Mayakoba, but found this price on SkyBet and had to take it, it was around 5 clicks better than nearly every other book and Niemann is easy to get excited about in a Latin American tournament.

Higher variance this week, one each way result will take a chunk out of the buy in amount, but will still net a solid loss.
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Old 11-14-2019, 12:55 PM   #115
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added:

Nedbank Challenge:

Sebastian Soderberg @151.0 (1.3 units) 25% 1-5

Mayakoba Golf Classic:

Abraham Ancer @23.0 (2.6 units) 20% 1-8

I fired pretty big on Soderberg when skybet didn't update his starting price after a birdie birdie start, William Hill had him at 67.0 as I made the bet.

Looks like we'll be playing for each ways this week after my a lol bad start for my picks and Louis just crushing it.
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Old 11-14-2019, 09:06 PM   #116
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I scaled back a bit this week after a month of poop. Just one Euro lineup.

Haotong, Stenson, Bobby Mac, Sharma, Gavin Green, and Zander Lombard. All relatively low owned.
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Old 11-15-2019, 09:05 AM   #117
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Do you need the entire line up to do well if you're betting fantasy sports? Zander is doing well, what made you pick him?
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Old 11-16-2019, 11:08 AM   #118
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Does anyone know where to find odds from past events, at least the last 2 years? Looking for matchup odds specifically
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Old 11-16-2019, 12:19 PM   #119
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Do you need the entire line up to do well if you're betting fantasy sports? Zander is doing well, what made you pick him?
You need your entire lineup to contribute. Zander being in the lead is great, but my other guys aren't helping. Zander was an afterthought this week. His salary was perfect for what I had left over. I thought he was in the best form of those in his price range.

Birdies/eagles are good, as well as higher finishes.

Maverick McNealy is volatile, so I'll gravitate towards him a lot this year. Tons or birdies (and bogeys). If I were betting like you, I wouldn't touch him.

Bobby Mac and Stenson aren't in contention, but they climbed the leaderboard today. Sneaking into the Top 10 would be great.

Li and Sharma barely broke 80 today. That hurt.

Green was somewhat steady.

I need some birdies and eagles tomorrow as well as the win and guys climbing the leaderboard.

My lineup is in 89th of 356. Top 83 paid.
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Old 11-16-2019, 01:04 PM   #120
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah, Stenson and Bobby had good days today. Unfortunately were just too far back to really matter. I could see Macintyre making a run tomorrow, but top 7 is going to be a big ask for either.

At the very least for you, guys being out of contention for the win and in tough conditions is a decent scenario for one of them to make a big leader board push on Sunday when they get out early.

I settled in last night to watch the Mayakoba and rail Niemann and he started with a quad bogey.

I'm scrambling for a break even week here, will have to scale back if I rip

Mayakoba Classic, Added: (20% 1-5)

Brenden Todd @ 19.0 (1.6 units)
Adam Long @ 26.0 (1.6 units)
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Old 11-16-2019, 01:15 PM   #121
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Does anyone know where to find odds from past events, at least the last 2 years? Looking for matchup odds specifically
Sorry, no idea, but I'd also be interested in seeing this if anyone knows.
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Old 11-16-2019, 02:24 PM   #122
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Tyler McCumber WDed. Yes. I have him in one of my lineups, but not my top one. I'll post after today's round how bad it is.
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Old 11-16-2019, 09:12 PM   #123
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I did 5-lineups. 3 of them have 6/6 make the cut while my other two have 5/6. McCumber WDed and Jason Day MCed.

Long, Scheffler, Grillo, Kisner, Knox, Zhang

Horschel, HV3, Lanto, Sabbatini, Tringale, Harman

Reavie, HV3, Sabbatini, Kisner, Knox, Piercy

I don't remember getting 6/6 last season at that rate. So...LFG!!!!!
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Old 11-16-2019, 10:59 PM   #124
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Well done man. Wouldn't be a Precept line up without at least one WD though! Who'd have thought your one missed cut would be Jason Day...

I felt like a really dummy after firing Long and watching him play the first 12 holes +3, those 5 birdies in a row were a god send.

I need to get a win in the Mayakoba here, not looking forward to updating the profit total if this bricks out. Last additions were 2.6, not 1.6 units.
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Old 11-16-2019, 11:12 PM   #125
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I find Long an enigma. He's always low priced and low owned. He always competes well. He's got the finiahes to be invited to all the WGC events.

Does he have the same win equity as the top guys? No.

Is he seemingly always in the mix? Yes.

He should be way more expensive than 6600 and 5% owned on DK.
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