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Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

07-11-2020 , 10:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Sueno
Lets have rickroll keep taking him at happy meal stakes so someone keeps the streak alive. I think he has already volunteered itt. Golf syndicate can reimburse at year-end for any losses.
would be happy to finally contribute something positive here
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-11-2020 , 10:55 AM
what happened to your golf rankings? they were going pretty good

Round 3:

Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Justin Thomas vs. Hideki Matsuyama - Hideki Matsuyama 117 RISK: 1.3u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Viktor Hovland vs. Patrick Reed - Patrick Reed 109 RISK: 0.87u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Richy Werenski vs. Nick Taylor - Nick Taylor -130 RISK: 0.56u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Rickie Fowler vs. Corey Conners - Corey Conners 118 RISK: 0.17u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Joaquin Niemann vs. Jason Day - Jason Day 100 RISK: 0.53u

Maybe BM will post some too
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-11-2020 , 11:29 AM
Somehow managed to get 3 6/6s (1 in DK's Tiers)
Cantlay, Morikawa, Im, Wallace, Norlander, Conners
Cantlay, Niemann, Woodland, Hadwin, Fitzpatrick, Schenk

Rahm, Schauffele, Morikawa, Oosthuizen, Niemann, Conners

Current Best Lineup: Morikawa, Hovland, Niemann, Champ, Conners, and LOL Kokrak
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07-11-2020 , 11:35 AM
Nice! I got 5/6 in cash w/Rahm, Horschel, Fitzpatrick, Hadwin, Furyk, Kuchar (Furyk so close)

and not even bothering with the milly because I locked Scheffler. Sucks because I had Nick Taylor in almost everyone too. Maybe I'll get 50% back.
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07-11-2020 , 12:21 PM
one from BM

Round 3 Matchup - Workday - Xander Schauffele -102 - (Xander Schauffele vrs Viktor Hovland) RISK: 0.81u

the rest of them only have 2k limits for some reason
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07-11-2020 , 12:38 PM
Managed to get 6/6 through on my cash lineup, Fitz & Horschel comebacks yesterday helped. 4/20 have 6/6 in the milly but none of my Morikawa lineups sadly. Payout structure is so bad in those
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07-11-2020 , 01:29 PM
I took the classic fish line and tried to avoid a losing week. Lump on Hideki or Thomas win at 2.75.

Hovland def binking it now
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07-11-2020 , 03:33 PM
Jason Day imploding and Matt Jones -5 today.

3 stroke lead. Top Australian locked up
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07-11-2020 , 09:57 PM
What a disaster today

Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Justin Thomas vs. Hideki Matsuyama - Hideki Matsuyama 117 RISK: 1.3u LOSS -1.3
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Viktor Hovland vs. Patrick Reed - Patrick Reed 109 RISK: 0.87u LOSS -0.87
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Richy Werenski vs. Nick Taylor - Nick Taylor -130 RISK: 0.56u LOSS -0.56
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Rickie Fowler vs. Corey Conners - Corey Conners 118 RISK: 0.17u LOSS -0.17
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 3 - Joaquin Niemann vs. Jason Day - Jason Day 100 RISK: 0.53u WIN +0.53
Round 3 Matchup - Workday - Xander Schauffele -102 - (Xander Schauffele vrs Viktor Hovland) PUSH

1-4-1 -2.37u on 4.24u risked

At least our full tournament are looking good? Lets get it back with R4. Not much out there

Round 4 Matchup - Wrokday - Chez Reavie -112 - (Chez Reavie vrs Scott Stallings) RISK: 0.92u
Round 4 Matchup - Wrokday - Joaquin Niemann -113 - (Joaquin Niemann vrs Keegan Bradley) RISK: 0.42u
Round 4 Matchup - Workday - Collin Morikawa -129 - (Collin Morikawa vrs Kevin Streelman) RISK: 1.13u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 4 - Steve Stricker vs. Matt Kuchar - Matt Kuchar RISK: 0.47u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 4 - Adam Long vs. Chris Stroud - Adam Long RISK: 0.52u
Justin THomas To Win -150 RISK: 1.45u


Euro:
Round 4 Matchup - Austrian - Philip Eriksson -126 - (Oliver Lindell vrs Philip Eriksson) RISK: 2.52u
Round 4 Matchup - Austrian - Thomas Detry +107 - (Joost Luiten vrs Thomas Detry) RISK: 0.24u
Golf - Round 4 EURO - Nicolai Hojgaard vs. Wil Besseling - Wil Besseling -117 RISK: 2.19u
Golf - Round 4 EURO - Marc Warren vs. Darius van Driel - Darius van Driel -110 RISK: 2.14u
Nicolai von Dellinghausen Win +550 RISK: 0.33u
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez Win +1050 RISK: 0.9u
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-11-2020 , 10:03 PM
Couple Korn Ferry tour sweats for tomorrow

Svensson (66/1) and Wu (50/1) are T9 at -13
Sigg (33/1) is T16 at -12

The leader is -19 but in Korn Ferry that's not really a huge lead. He went crazy -10 today. 2nd is -18, then -15, and some -14.

Matt Jones leading for Top Australian

PGA to win and top americans are pretty much dead. Non american winner has a chance.

Our Austrian to wins are pretty dead.
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07-12-2020 , 08:10 AM
Joost is falling apart and Garcia Rodriguez and Von Dellingshausen are tied for first. The swings in euro PGA are amazing. -6 one day +6 the next
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07-12-2020 , 08:32 AM
Any value on the korn ferry for Novak and Truslow both at 51.00 @defnotrsigley ?

I already have Wu.
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07-12-2020 , 08:46 AM
I have Novak close to 58/1, Truslow nope. Truslow I don't have much data on because he hasn't played many rounds.

Novak is getting better but around 75% of his rounds have negative shots gained. Truslow's played about 100 rounds of golf and only has 15 positive.
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07-12-2020 , 10:03 AM
lol JT triple bogey to start

Garcia Rodriguez T1 on 16. Back to back bogeys put Von Dellingshausen out of it.
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07-12-2020 , 10:37 AM
Garcia Rodriguez had a chance to win but then he double bogey's the par 3 18. Good start to the euro reboot

Round 4:

Round 4 Matchup - Austrian - Philip Eriksson -126 - (Oliver Lindell vrs Philip Eriksson) RISK: 2.52u WIN +2
Round 4 Matchup - Austrian - Thomas Detry +107 - (Joost Luiten vrs Thomas Detry) RISK: 0.24u WIN +0.26u
Golf - Round 4 EURO - Nicolai Hojgaard vs. Wil Besseling - Wil Besseling -117 RISK: 2.19u WIN +1.87u
Golf - Round 4 EURO - Marc Warren vs. Darius van Driel - Darius van Driel -110 RISK: 2.14u LOSS -2.14u

3-1 +1.99u on 7.09u risked (28.07%)

Austrian Open Full Tournament:

Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Daan Huizing -101 - (Daan Huizing vrs Matthew Baldwin) RISK: 0.23u WIN +0.22u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Marc Warren +152 - (Marc Warren vrs Jens Dantorp) RISK: 0.13u WIN +0.2u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Bernd Ritthammer +107 - (Anton Karlsson vrs Bernd Ritthammer) RISK: 1.65u WIN +1.77u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Robin Roussel -144 - (Gregory Bourdy vrs Robin Roussel) RISK: 0.85u LOSS -0.85u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Darius Van Driel +126 - (Darius Van Driel vrs Rikard Karlberg) RISK: 0.34u WIN +0.43u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Scott Vincent +124 - (Haydn Porteous vrs Scott Vincent) RISK: 1.5u WIN +1.86u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Miguel Angel Jimenez -121 - (Miguel Angel Jimenez vrs Maximilian Kieffer) RISK: 0.26u WIN +0.21u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Connor Syme +183 - (Joost Luiten vrs Connor Syme) RISK: 0.75u WIN +1.37
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Adri Arnaus +179 - (Joost Luiten vrs Adri Arnaus) RISK: 0.97u LOSS -0.97u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Thomas Detry +100 - (Joost Luiten vrs Thomas Detry) RISK: 1.08u WIN +1.08u

8-2 +5.32u on 7.76u risked (68.56% ROI)

To Win:

Antoine Rozner +4000 RISK: 0.36u LOSS -0.36u
Francesco Laporta +4000 RISK: 0.26u LOSS -0.26u
Nicolai von Dellinghausen Win +550 RISK: 0.33u LOSS -0.33u
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez Win +1050 RISK: 0.9u LOSS -0.9u
0-4 -1.85u on 1.85u risked (-100% ROI)


Euro YTD:

YTD Rounds: 12-7 +3.80u on 17.88u risked (21.25% ROI)
YTD Full Tournament Matchups: 17-6-2 +8.92u on 14.73u risked (60.56% ROI)
YTD To Win: 0-4 -1.85u on 1.85u risked (-100% ROI)
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-12-2020 , 10:50 AM
As it stands right now, at 10:48am EST, I'm looking at a slight profit. So much variability, though. Could go up or down.

I would cash it and take it right now.
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07-12-2020 , 10:56 AM
Horschel is going insane. -11 now. If he didn't spot the field +4 on the front 9 day 1 he could be in contention for winning.
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07-12-2020 , 11:16 AM
the final round is not on tv?! what a joke
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07-12-2020 , 11:17 AM
you can watch for free on https://www.cbssports.com/golf/pga-tour/live/

It should be there until the TV stream starts up. Last week they kept it up even when TV broadcast was on.

golf has the worst TV structure. you need ten different packages

Svesson, Wu, and Sigg all T3 now

Where's the Korn Ferry stream
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07-12-2020 , 12:15 PM
Svesson t2. Gonna need lipsky to bogey or two. I took this at 4 books. We gonna get Korn Ferry To Win's cancelled
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07-12-2020 , 01:02 PM
The coverage this week was terrible, sky sports was showing msnbc? or something and it was 90% adds and player segments. Wouldn't even bother 'watching' if it was always like that
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07-12-2020 , 02:46 PM
Svesson cooled down and Lipsky didn't implode. We were in contention at least! Next week.

Korn Ferry:

J.T. Griffin -110 vs Chandler Blanchet LOSS -1.1
Roberto Diaz -110 vs Joey Garber WIN +1
Alex Prugh -105 vs Brad Hopfinger LOSS -1.05
Adam Svensson -115 vs Vince India WIN +1
Scott Gutschewski -115 vs Martin Piller LOSS -1.15
Dylan Wu -105 vs Jared Wolfe WIN +1
Augusto Nunez -115 vs Stephan Jaeger LOSS -1.15
Greyson Sigg -115 vs Seamus Power WIN +1
Chad Ramey -120 vs Dawie Van Der Walt WIN +1

5-4 +0.55u on 10.1u risked

To Win:
Greyson Sigg +3300 LOSS -1
Augusto Nunez +4500 LOSS -1 (Nunez is the Korn Ferry tour Scottie Scheffler)
Dylan Wu +5000 LOSS -1
Adam Svensson +6600 LOSS -1
0-4 -4u on 4u risked

YTD To Win: 1-7 +3u on 8u risked (37.5% ROI)
YTD Tourney: 9-8-2 +0.1u on 22.75u risked (0.43% ROI)
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-12-2020 , 02:53 PM
was crushing tournaments going into today and then cantlay went HAM and sabbatini imploded. Jones didn't do anything and Day went crazy too. Lame 2 weeks.

R1: 7-2-1 +4.96u on 7.43u risked
R2: 6-8-1 -2.24u on 15.65u risked
R3: 1-4-1 -2.37u on 4.24u risked
R4: 4-1 +2.02u on 3.46u risked
Tournament: 21-17-2 +1.00u on 48.53u risked
To Win: 1-3 -0.15u on 2.57u risked
Total on meaningful bets: -0.9u on 81.88u risked (-0.11% ROI)
Props: 3-5 +0.25u on 8u risked

YTD:
YTD To Win: 8-23 +15.51u on 19.49u risked (79.58% ROI)
YTD Full Tournament: 61-43-4 +11.42u on 117.96u risked (9.68% ROI)
YTD Rounds: 130-126-27 +0.7u on 244.86u risked (0.29% ROI)
YTD Props: 10-14 +26.85u on 27.25u risked (98.53% ROI)

Here's all the win/loss instead of pasting 200 lines

https://pastebin.com/CyP7fCMx
Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Quote
07-12-2020 , 03:19 PM
All in all, small loss. Was so close to doing well. Several close calls in multipliers. If Woodland doesn't bogey the last, I might've hit.

Top 9 get 3x, I got 10th by a few points 3 TIMES.

Top 50 get 40x, missed by 2 points.



Oh well. Good process. Need guys to play like I want them to, next week.
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07-12-2020 , 08:02 PM
Big gulp on this one, biggest ever betting week and I needed Thomas to b/e. That was rough
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