Weekly volume since golf came back.

Colonial: $879,655
Heritage: $1,042,082
Travelers: $1,628,602
Rocket Mortgage: $567,385

Found this interesting since limits/outs on my end have remained constant. There's definitely a correlation between the quality of an event and the # of offerings, and last week's RM was the worst of the 4. I also had way fewer R3 and R4 bets last week than normal for w/e reasons, but that's still a big drop from the average. Hopefully we didn't break golf by losing lots of $ betting golf.

I don't know how their resulting system works but if it's anything similar to how it is at my company's, it has nothing to do with the $ amounts and they just prolly forgot to click a divide odds button when they selected both Willett and Hatton as winners while they were trying to grade a million things at once

you guys see any argument for fading Bryson in cash this week? He's not even playing yet I feel compelled to roster him in cash

got punked last week, ROI of -97% more or less but had less to do with everyone having bryson but me and more my just getting 3/6 on most lines

early gut reaction yahoo line
rahm/hovland/xander/hoge/stuard/stallings

tempted to use fatrick instead of xander

I think this week had low volume because betonline and bookmaker copied circa for every match up. BM had 1 unique line all week which I think was an accident.

Looking back to 2019 the Rocket Mortgage was also a disaster. 5th worst overall. Think I'll avoid this course next year.

Workday charity open to win:

Rahm +1400 RISK: 0.66u
Kuchar +4000 RISK: 0.16u
Horschel +6600 RISK: 0.30u

Wonder how much we will hear about Brysons meals and workout routine now that he's gone.

Took

Rahm +1500
Kuchar +4000
Sabbatini +15000

Reminder: We are off Scheffler...no matter what!

Do
Not
Bet
Scottie
Scheffler
Under
Any
Circumstances

i feel like we need a designated scheffler bettor each week so the week he finally wins one someone benefited

Not it

Looks like Datagolf crushed last week. Only -16.3% ROI.

What did they know that we didn't.

I have Scheffler +6311 to win this week so we should be good.

I think I found out an issue I had with him and Matsuyama.

For Scheffler I was including two tournaments he played over the covid break where he got 1st/2nd. I don't think it was weighing the strength of field properly.

For Matsuyama I was including his players championship round 1 where he went crazy and got a course record or something before covid shut it down. He had a +4.4 on shots gained from putting there and +8.9 total (for comparison, the only tournament where he was positive in putting was WGC Mexico at +0.32 and his year shots gained not including this was 1.8 overall).

I reduced the impact of both of those from their projections by scaling Matsuyamas and removing Schefflers non sanctioned events from projections. I used to exclude the non sanctioned events but when I started tryign to predict Outlaw Tour I turned it on. Whoops.

First Glances on DK
Up Top, I think I like Cantlay the best (10,600), then Deki (10,000).

Mid-High 7000s
Joel Dahmen (7700), Corey Conners (7600), Ben An (7900)

Low 7000s
Ryan Palmer (7200), Chez Reavie (7200), Sepp Straka (7000)

Who stole Dahmen at 90/1 before I could grab it?

Euro golf is back this week. Weird tournament tho. Half the field is Euro PGA pros, the other half Challenger. It's like if the PGA and Korn ferry tour combined for an event.

Euro units are 2/5th of PGA for comparison.

Antoine Rozner +4000 RISK: 0.36u
Francesco Laporta +4000 RISK: 0.26u

Golf props:

Phil Mickelson MISS cut +110
Brooks Koepka MISS cut +240
Jordan Spieth MISS cut +150

Top Englishman Matthew Fitzpatrick +225
Top Australian Matt Jones +700, Baddeley +1200. I have Baddeley as more value if you only want to bet one.

No value on top asian (some are close) or european (none are close)

Took +8750 at BM. He will play dece w/o truly sniffing winning so you're welcome.

Lets get this $250 Korn Ferry tour action

To Win:

Greyson Sigg +3300
Augusto Nunez +4500
Dylan Wu +5000
Adam Scensson +6600

In terms of value Nunez > svensson > Sigg > wu

missed the boat on rahm who's now at 10:1 but followed on the rest

threw a single dollar on these guys for the lols
Tringale 175
Sabbatini 115.5
Poulter 98.9
Day 75.5
Scheffler 75.5 (i'll be designated donator this week)

there's a few koreans above 200 that are tempting cause you know if we simmed this event 200 times they'd at least make the cut in one of them and then anything can happen over the weekend

Good miss cut with value on 5d/books that copy them

Wolff MISS cut +135

Incoming back to back -8 days

I almost just left $200 on the table in a lineup and put in Scheffler. I went An to leave $100 instead.

Seems this book posts Korn Ferry every other week. Here's what I got for full tournament match-ups

J.T. Griffin -110 vs Chandler Blanchet
Roberto Diaz -110 vs Joey Garber
Alex Prugh -105 vs Brad Hopfinger
Adam Svensson -115 vs Vince India
Scott Gutschewski -115 vs Martin Piller
Dylan Wu -105 vs Jared Wolfe
Augusto Nunez -115 vs Stephan Jaeger
Greyson Sigg -115 vs Seamus Power
Chad Ramey -120 vs Dawie Van Der Walt

Workday Charity - Non USA Winner +160 [fair +133]

Pre bookmaker. Betonline just copies circa and so do a lot of people. So shop around. Was able to get 10k pretty easy on most of these. Bottom are pinnacle and pinnacle clones. My volume is already 52% of last weeks. And we still have one book left! This might be the week we max out losses.

Workday Charity Open

Full tournament bets:

Im > Morikawa RISK: 0.75u
Matsuyama > Rose -130 RISK: 1u
Kuchar > Leishman +105 RISK: 2u
Scheffler > Wolff -130 RISK: 2.6u
Varner > Streelman +100 RISK: 0.95u
Snedeker > Mickelson RISK: 0.75u
Dahmen > Poulter -120 RISK: 0.2u
Kokrak > Palmer RISK: 1.48u
Landry > Burns -115 RISK: 1.57u
Brendan Steele vs. Keegan Bradley - Keegan Bradley -122 RISK: 0.3u
Maverick McNealy vs. Mark Hubbard - Mark Hubbard -105 RISK: 0.2u
Cameron Champ vs. Harold Varner III - Harold Varner III -110 RISK: 2.2u
Scottie Scheffler vs. Bubba Watson - Scottie Scheffler -134 RISK: 0.67u
Brooks Koepka vs. Viktor Hovland - Viktor Hovland -103 RISK: 2.06u
Brooks Koepka vs. Xander Schauffele - Xander Schauffele -120 RISK: 2.4u
Patrick Cantlay vs. Jon Rahm - Jon Rahm -115 RISK: 0.76u
Ryan Armour - Russell Henley - Match-ups - Russell Henley Odds: -119 RISK: 0.71u
Adam Hadwin - Matthew Fitzpatrick - Match-ups - Matthew Fitzpatrick Odds: -119 RISK: 1.3u
Justin Rose - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: +103 RISK: 0.95
Byeong Hun An - Kevin Streelman - Match-ups - Byeong Hun An Odds: -108 RISK: 0.27u
Justin Thomas - Patrick Cantlay - Match-ups - Justin Thomas Odds: -114 RISK: 0.42u
Justin Rose - Rickie Fowler - Match-ups - Rickie Fowler Odds: +111 RISK: 0.75u
Matthew Wolff - Jason Day - Match-ups - Jason Day Odds: -118 RISK: 1.63u
Marc Leishman - Gary Woodland - Match-ups - Marc Leishman Odds: +102 RISK: 1.7u
Patrick Cantlay - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -101 RISK: 0.75u
Jason Kokrak - Scott Stallings - Match-ups - Jason Kokrak Odds: -118 RISK: 2.36u
Rickie Fowler - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: +100 RISK: 1.17u
Jon Rahm - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Jon Rahm Odds: -108 RISK: 1.4u
Ryan Palmer - Matt Wallace - Match-ups - Ryan Palmer Odds: -118 RISK: 2u
Brandt Snedeker - Chris Kirk - Match-ups - Brandt Snedeker Odds: -114 RISK: 0.23u
Rory Sabbatini - Ian Poulter - Match-ups - Rory Sabbatini Odds: -101 RISK: 2.02u

Almost all our big bets we can arb for profit at BM, so that is good.

Here's other BM bets

Tournament Matchup - Workday - Max Homa +108 - (Russell Henley vrs Max Homa) RISK: 1.41u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Ryan Armour +104 - (Ryan Armour vrs Scott Stallings) RISK: 0.58u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Brandt Snedeker -123 - (Phil Mickelson vrs Brandt Snedeker) RISK: 1.93u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Jason Day -106 - (Jason Day vrs Bubba Watson) RISK: 0.77u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Jon Rahm -175 - (Brooks Koepka vrs Jon Rahm) RISK: 0.74u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Justin Thomas +110 - (Justin Thomas vrs Jon Rahm) RISK: 0.71u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Brandt Snedeker +101 - (Brandt Snedeker vrs Chris Kirk) RISK: 2u
Tournament Matchup - Workday - Patrick Rodgers +140 - (Emiliano Grillo vrs Patrick Rodgers) RISK: 0.54u

10k round opening limits are back

Round 1:

Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Patrick Rodgers -108 - (Phil Mickelson vrs Patrick Rodgers) RISK: 0.32u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Lanto Griffin -110 - (Matt Wallace vrs Lanto Griffin) RISK: 1.01u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Brandt Snedeker -109 - (Ryan Armour vrs Brandt Snedeker) RISK: 0.66u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Bud Cauley -133 - (Bud Cauley vrs Brendan Steele) RISK: 0.23u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Rory Sabbatini -117 - (Rory Sabbatini vrs Chris Kirk) RISK: 1.35u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Matt Kuchar -122 - (Matt Kuchar vrs Kevin Streelman) RISK: 1.22u
Round 1 Matchup - Workday - Patrick Cantlay -120 - (Patrick Cantlay vrs Rickie Fowler) RISK: 0.57u

lets just get those euro lines

Golf - Groups - Workday Charity Open - Top American - Matt Kuchar +2800 [+2212]
Golf - Groups - Workday Charity Open - Top American - Billy Horschel +4000 [+3255]

Kuchar has more value

Austrian Open Full Tournament:

Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Daan Huizing -101 - (Daan Huizing vrs Matthew Baldwin) RISK: 0.23u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Marc Warren +152 - (Marc Warren vrs Jens Dantorp) RISK: 0.13u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Bernd Ritthammer +107 - (Anton Karlsson vrs Bernd Ritthammer) RISK: 1.65u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Robin Roussel -144 - (Gregory Bourdy vrs Robin Roussel) RISK: 0.85u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Darius Van Driel +126 - (Darius Van Driel vrs Rikard Karlberg) RISK: 0.34u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Scott Vincent +124 - (Haydn Porteous vrs Scott Vincent) RISK: 1.5u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Miguel Angel Jimenez -121 - (Miguel Angel Jimenez vrs Maximilian Kieffer) RISK: 0.26u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Connor Syme +183 - (Joost Luiten vrs Connor Syme) RISK: 0.75u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Adri Arnaus +179 - (Joost Luiten vrs Adri Arnaus) RISK: 0.97u
Tournament Matchup - Austrian - Thomas Detry +100 - (Joost Luiten vrs Thomas Detry) RISK: 1.08u

GL everybody