Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-05-2020, 02:19 PM   #1026
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
this one seems off from BetOnline

Wolff -115 over Armour
RISK: 0.44u
After Hole 1

Wolff +1
Armour -1
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 02:50 PM   #1027
Whatever695
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 59
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Cmon Danny Willett top European at 19-1. Just need a few more bogeys from Seamus
Whatever695 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 02:51 PM   #1028
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

looks like chalk dechambeau got this. Good for us. Gonna be value on other people in the future.

Willet up to t3, lets get this top european. Need to fade Seamus Power and Hatton. Hovland's flag looks european too so lets fade him just in case.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 02:53 PM   #1029
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Finau trying to do the right thing for Fowler/Im over Finau backers. Might have a little $ left to bet next week after all!
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 02:56 PM   #1030
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol that wolff 3rd shot out of the bunker

dude goes from 20 feet from pin to 55

jesus then he drains the 55 foot putt
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 02:59 PM   #1031
atrainpsu
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,810
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Maybe that 53 footer for Wolff will get him going...
atrainpsu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 03:20 PM   #1032
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Matsuyama 3 off the lead. If he gets to a playoff with Bryson i'd mortgage your house on Hideki.

Bryson doesn't have the mental fortitude to go against Hideki.

Probably won't happen because if Bryson sees he's going to be in a playoff with Hideki he'd bogey on purpose.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 03:34 PM   #1033
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

nevermind bryson -20 now

wolff -17

where was this wolff when we had big bets against him in r2 and 3? shooting -8 a round then

redman bogeying 17 is nice. hadwin birdie and i'm not having to rent out a bedroom in iowas mansion

he's got an eagle shot coming up. one time
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 03:41 PM   #1034
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Eagle baby. -2 over Redman with 1 hole left. Lock it up.

Incoming bogey for hadwin, redman birdie to tie
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 03:52 PM   #1035
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

weekend semi saved



finau bogey and we are able to eat this week
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:07 PM   #1036
Whatever695
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 59
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Need Hatton to drop a shot.
Whatever695 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:16 PM   #1037
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

hatton onto the cart path on his second shot on par 5. Could bogey!
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:30 PM   #1038
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

FINAU BOGEYD 18 TO PUSH

i'll take it



i took the liberty to update wolff's to win odds
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:39 PM   #1039
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

hatton 19 foot birdie shot on 18

he makes it willett loses

pars and we dead heat and get at least half of it.

power is out of contention probably.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:40 PM   #1040
Whatever695
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 59
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

If Hatton and Willet time for top European, do dead heat rules apply on DraftKings?
Whatever695 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:41 PM   #1041
Whatever695
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 59
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Woo hoo!!!
Whatever695 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:42 PM   #1042
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yep, most do

Quote:
In outright bets which include a limited selection of participants, such as Top Nationality, Group Betting, etc., DraftKings reserves the right to apply Tattersalls Rule 4 on any non-starter. Dead Heat rules will apply except for cases where a play-off has determined a better finishing position.
9.5/1 is still decent! 19 would have been much better.

Couple more feet and Hatton gets a penalty on 17 and we win it all.

Wallace has to birdie birdie to split it more, unlikely. Power might catch up but I don't see it happening.

week in a nutshell

hit 10/1 to win korn ferry
19/1 on top european

both with lower limits

lose everything else
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 04:47 PM   #1043
fortisque
journeyman
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 217
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

How did Matsuyama double bogey? Shot tracker makes no sense
fortisque is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 05:31 PM   #1044
jablo1312
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 131
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

chris kirk hop back on the sauce for his back 9? brutal turnaround for him v. wes bryan.

also goes without saying for everyone here but that hideki 3 putt on 17 was so on brand and brutal.
jablo1312 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 06:19 PM   #1045
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Turns out even with crushing on Hadwin over Redman this was my worst week in history in terms of $$, third worst in terms of ROI. -23.24% on 342k wagered. You can do the math. Even Korn Ferry can't bail us out. On vacation next week, not because of losing but I always go fishing this week for MLB all star week. And airbnb won't refund the money because COVID is over and I'm too cheap to eat the fees.

Round 1: 8-9 -2.15u on 17.66u risked
Round 2: 7-4-2 -0.9u on 10.87u risked
Round 3: 7-7 -3u on 9.26u risked
Round 4: 3-7-1 -2.65u on 10.13u risked
Tournament: 4-8 on -6.77u 13.25u risked
To Win: 0-3 -1.96u on 1.96u risked
Total meaningful stuff: -17.43u on 63.13u risked

Props: 1-2 +7u on 3u risked
Korn Ferry: 1-1 +9u on 2u risked

To Win:

Hideki Matsuyama +1800 Risk: 0.49u [+1281] LOSS -0.49u
Scottie Scheffler +3500 RISK: 0.22u [+2441] LOSS -0.22u
Wolff to win +100 RISK: 1.25u LOSS -1.25

Props:

Winning Nationality: Non USA +190 [+159 fair] LOSS -1
Scheffler Top American +2200 LOSS -1
Danny Willet Top European +1800 WIN +9 (dead-heat, win half as much)
1-2 +7u on 3u risked

Round 4:

Round 4 Matchup - Rocket - Pat Perez -103 - (Pat Perez vrs Sepp Straka) RISK: 0.59u LOSS -0.59u
Tringale > Swafford -110 RISK: 1.59u PUSH
Norlander > Stallings +113 RISK: 1.06u WIN +1.2u
Gellerman > Byrd +109 RISK: 0.89u LOSS -0.89u
Baker > Ventura -105 RISK: 0.2u LOSS -0.2u
Lewis > Atwal -200 RISK: 1.76u WIN +0.88u
Merritt > DeChambeau +245 RISK: 0.46u LOSS -0.46u
Chris Baker > Ventura +103 (BM) RISK: 1.25u LOSS -1.25u
Wolff -115 over Armour RISK: 0.44u WIN +0.38u
Hubbard > Power -160 RISK: 0.17u PUSH
Kirk > Bryan -145 RISK: 0.92u LOSS -0.92u (how?)
Anderson > McNeill -125 RISK: 0.8u LOSS -0.8u
Round 4: 3-7-1 -2.65u on 10.13u risked

Tournament:

Patrick Reed - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -116 RISK: 0.75u WIN +0.65u
Keegan Bradley - Brian Stuard - Match-ups - Brian Stuard Odds: +103 RISK: 0.36u WIN +0.37
Viktor Hovland - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -112 RISK: 1.5u LOSS -1.5u
Scottie Scheffler - Bubba Watson - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: -132 RISK: 2.64u LOSS -2.64u
Sungjae Im - Tony Finau - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -119 RISK: 2.38u PUSH
Doc Redman - Adam Hadwin - Match-ups - Adam Hadwin Odds: -118 RISK: 0.64u WIN +0.54u
Bryson DeChambeau - Webb Simpson - Match-ups - Webb Simpson Odds: +115 RISK: 0.27u LOSS -0.27u
Sungjae Im - Rickie Fowler - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -127 RISK: 0.88u LOSS -0.88u
Rafael Cabrera Bello - Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: -102 RISK: RISK: 0.4u WIN +0.39u
Patrick Reed - Viktor Hovland - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -109 RISK: 0.34u LOSS -0.34u
Scott Stallings - Kyle Stanley - Match-ups - Kyle Stanley Odds: -118 RISK: 1.18u LOSS -1.18u
Lucas Glover - Erik van Rooyen - Match-ups - Erik van Rooyen Odds: +101 RISK: 0.33u LOSS -0.33u
Hatton > Dechambeau +165 RISK: 1.58u LOSS -1.58u
Tournament: 4-8 on -6.77u 13.25u risked

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 07-05-2020 at 06:28 PM.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 07:07 PM   #1046
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Matchups and Outrights for the event:

Risked: $567,385
Net: $-124,252
ROI: -21.9%

Bookmaker.EU poppin bottle tonight. Better ROI than Sigley though so looks like we have a new legit top.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 07:14 PM   #1047
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

if you add korn ferry and props it brings it to -22.04% so can't even get 1st on a technicality. we've been crushing props too. just like with K. crush K and the amount you win in an entire season is just what you lose on whatever closer the rays are using this week blowing their 97th game

good thing i cost myself tons of money in the long run by under betting my bank roll otherwise this might have been a you lost a house week

i should have tournament long bets as long as they're posting by wed afternoon. no round bets which actually shouldn't be bad
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 08:37 PM   #1048
stoffmakers
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,124
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

a site I won't mention by name that some of us use graded Willett (and I assume Hatton as well) in full instead of dead-heat despite what their rules say so check your accounts!
stoffmakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-05-2020, 11:15 PM   #1049
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

got double paid too nice.

crazy i know at least 6 people (outside of you) who max bet it there and we all got the same odds.

good job good effort risk management. I know it's only $250 to win $4500 but wouldn't that ring some bells or at least make someone think as they're paying it out
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-06-2020, 08:14 AM   #1050
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,462
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

After a few losing weeks, I had a plus week. Gained about 20%. If Deki doesn't shoot 40 on the last 9, it could've been far sweeter. My 6/6 (Dechambeau, Hatton, Glover, Tringale, Norlander, Wagner) did well, but I forgot I had a Dechambeau, Wolff, Willett, Deki, Varner, Munoz lineup that did well, too.

On to Muirfield, where Accuracy off the tee and SG-APP are key (per Data Golf).
Precept24 is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:20 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive