Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 4 - Sports Betting

ligastar · 10-28-2019, 04:24 PM

ligastar · 10-28-2019, 04:51 PM

ligastar · 10-28-2019, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

Another week where I've secured a surprisingly large profit by sniping good prices on Thursdays. My 1.2 units bet on Sung Jae Im on Thursday were each way (25% 1-5). Unfortunately Xander bogeyed the 18th and shot a 2 over Sunday, which cost a very likely 6 units. Still, with this strategy I'm pumped anytime I'm in profit without picking a winner.

Weekly total profit: 14 units

Total profit since I started posting: +39 + 8 + 14 = 61 units

These are great results 4BB!

ligastar · 10-28-2019, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

Anyone fancy Casey this week in China? He had a big of a nightmare and missed the cut at the Italian Open, but T17 last week. Form has been strong with the European open win followed by T11 at the BMW championship.

Thinking of going for Im, Wiesberger and Casey as the main chunk. I'm skipping Matt Wallace while his weekend woes continue and Ben An after seeing him at the bottom of SGP, even though they've been mainstays in my line ups.

Considering Haotong Li (56.0)and Macintyre (67.0) as the outsiders and tempted by 2 south Africans Bezuidenhoot (71.0) and Van Rooyen (61.0) for smaller bets.

Really tempted to break the strategy and Bet a few units on Rory outright, but the price just seems so terrible I'm not sure I can bring myself to do it.

I've backing all three this week.

In the long run, I don't think you make a profit betting major faves in golf. That said, I don't dabble in the outright markets.

4BetBoke · 10-28-2019, 05:47 PM

Thank you Thank you! Definitely has been nice to hit a heater as I started posting. The downswing is always just around the corner though. I had a 40 unit in game punt on Sunday in the Sandersons Farms Championship and I really don't want to have to post some ridiculously fishy bets here, so the accountability is good in that regard.

I agree with you on the favourites. It's hard not to fancy Rory after such a strong finish last week, though. I Feel like he might just put on a clinic this week.

GL to us. Im, Wiesberger Casey 1,2,3 finish one time? Will sleep on the picks and finalise in a few days.

4BetBoke · 10-29-2019, 08:07 AM

WGC HSBC Champions, All bets Each way (20% 1-7)

Paul Casey @ 21.0 (2.8 units)
Sung Jae Im @ 29.0 (2.2 units)
Wiesberger @ 31.0 (2.0 units)

Small loss of 0.6-1 units with one each way. ~30 units profit on the win.

rickroll · 10-29-2019, 03:24 PM

why so many units on long shots?

4BetBoke · 10-30-2019, 09:41 AM

Honestly just kind of arbitrarily set the unit amount at $50 a while back and settled into this strategy around this dollar amount. I don't really bet favourites, but if I did I would size up the bets.

I would say it's deceptively low variance when you consider that any top 7 finish generally breaks me even for the package. I don't really consider these picks each way as long shots though, more middle shots? I'd consider around 70.0-101.0 a long shot.

4BetBoke · 10-30-2019, 08:37 PM

Added:

Ashun Wu / Chez Reavie / Rafa Cabrera-Bello @2.10 (1.0 units)

Patrick Reed / Sergio Garcia / Sungjae Im @2.63 (1.0 units)

Bermuda Championship: Alex Noren @ 17.0 (20% 1-7) (2.0 units)

Precept24 · 10-30-2019, 08:54 PM

Xinjun Zhang is a name I remember hearing.

4BetBoke · 10-31-2019, 08:49 AM

Yikes, Paul Casey

4BetBoke · 11-01-2019, 12:04 AM

Sung Jae #1 in the world within 3 years. I'm calling it right now! Unfortunately, I'm gonna have to lay my betting success down to the kid just being an absolute machine though.

4BetBoke · 11-01-2019, 12:36 AM

Liga - Check out Fitzpatrick this week vs last week and Conners is 3 over through 9 today. This game is tough.

ligastar · 11-01-2019, 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

Liga - Check out Fitzpatrick this week vs last week and Conners is 3 over through 9 today. This game is tough.

Def tough. As you can see, I basically only take + odds... goal is to grind out small wins.

Hadwin playing like ish but a win for me as Poulter WDs:

4BetBoke · 11-01-2019, 10:56 AM

Nice! I wonder which of precept's picks withdrew this week. He was probably all in on Poulter

I always check your picks and think about them, haven't really gotten into matchplay yet but have been enjoying the 3 balls. I'll look a bit closer next week, but tbh the only one I've seen that I was really confident in was Sung Jae Im vs Wyndham Clark / vs Jazz Janewattananond @ 2.20 from last week.

Next week I'll try and pick my favourite match play pair up and see if you have it.

Precept24 · 11-02-2019, 08:13 AM

Haha, 4B. I faded Poulter, but I apparently missed out on another WD.

My best lineup has Hadwin, who's trying to turn it around.

Rory, Fitzpatrick, Hadwin, Conners, Reavie, and Xinjun Zhang

ligastar · 11-02-2019, 09:10 AM

I have 2 units on Pavan vs Glover with Pavan entering the final round leading by 1 stroke.

Precept24 · 11-02-2019, 09:43 AM

Pavan is an FBG fave. Nice.

4BetBoke · 11-02-2019, 08:01 PM

Sad times that Sung Jae played 17 and 18, 2 over yesterday, could very easily have a real sweat going, but hopefully will still land the 1-7 finish.

If I were betting now it would definitely be Xander at 6.0, but not firing any more this late in the game. Feel like Rory is either going to run away with it, or bogey the first and it's anyone's game.

GL with your picks tonight guys.

4BetBoke · 11-03-2019, 04:29 PM

A big old brick this week! Not much to say really, it just all went poorly.

weekly total profit: -9.5 units
overall profit: +51.5 units

4BetBoke · 11-04-2019, 08:43 PM

Liga - my matchplay pick this week would be Bob Macintyre > Alex Noren. Followed them both pretty closely last week and Bob struggled, but had a ton of birdies, Noren was pretty underwhelming the whole way.

Pretty settled on Macintyre and Wiesberger this week. I'm tempted by Hatton on the low end and Perez / Kitayama on the higher end odds wise.

Rose / Reed / Wallace / Lowry / Molinari seem like easy skips to me right now.

ligastar · 11-04-2019, 09:37 PM

ligastar · 11-04-2019, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4BetBoke

Liga - my matchplay pick this week would be Bob Macintyre > Alex Noren. Followed them both pretty closely last week and Bob struggled, but had a ton of birdies, Noren was pretty underwhelming the whole way.

Pretty settled on Macintyre and Wiesberger this week. I'm tempted by Hatton on the low end and Perez / Kitayama on the higher end odds wise.

Rose / Reed / Wallace / Lowry / Molinari seem like easy skips to me right now.

Cool. I don't have feedback right now as I haven't done my work yet. I'll post more tmr.

ligastar · 11-05-2019, 02:59 PM

4BB ... I should've asked y'day, but what was the odds on MacIntyre > Noren?

4BetBoke · 11-05-2019, 04:29 PM

I only looked briefly on stars, I'll have to shop the price properly before betting, but it wasn't what you're looking for: 1.83/-120.

I'm assuming any book can set matchups whatever way they see fit? They generally all seem pretty close. I like Reed > Rose, he's definitely teasing form, but price hasn't been there from what I've seen for outright betting.