Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 39 - Sports Betting

scheffler is probably a bad play, but i love him too much

with the 9k switching to a 8k can probably get the 2 punts to 7k and lot of good people there.

FD is easier. was able to fit in hatton/im with bez/hadwin/harman/hubbard and have money left over

You're probably right. Gonna run made cut % on a few different combinations but probably can increase the floor vs. avg w/ your construction.

FD felt easier to fit in Bryson but ended up with some Tringale / Burgoon which I don't feel great about. Maybe it's that I'm way more comfortable w/ Burgoon being below the other sites' min on Yahoo that I can shift all exposure there.

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07-02-2020 , 12:00 AM

#953

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

i like all those guys too but who knows.

We've come to a time where Harold Varner is chalk. peak 2020.

I almost feel worse about fading Varner in fantasy this week than fading Bryson tbh. Been in the running on Sunday for the fantasy lottery 3 weeks this year and Varner was the differentiator for two of them. This can't be the version of the matrix we win with chalk Varner though, right?

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07-02-2020 , 01:04 AM

#954

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,471

added
RD1 Sabbatini>Hadwin -118 .3u
Hatton +1.5>DeChambeau +120 1.23u
Sabbatini>Na +100 .4u

also threw a dollar on Wyndham Clark for 115.5

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07-02-2020 , 01:17 AM

#955

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,471

current yahoo cash line is reed/armour/bramlett/hideki/grillo/hovland - will make a few pivots around this for maybe 4-5 lines in total

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07-02-2020 , 07:38 AM

#956

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Figure if I ship 3 or 4 of these over the next year I can quit my awful job as a professional sports bettor so got to go for it. We all knew what we were signing up for with Bryson lineups but looks like I did a reasonable job of pairing him with lower owned guys. Now I just need Henrik Norlander to go out and win a golf tournament.

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07-02-2020 , 08:34 AM

#957

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

sorry about Snedeker

almost as bad as me swapping Tyler Duncan for Tom Hoge

or Scottie Schefflers existence

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07-02-2020 , 08:46 AM

#958

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

Scheffler missing 2 foot putts, real fun stuff

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07-02-2020 , 09:12 AM

#959

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

found a way

just stack early golfers and screenshot when they're all in first

easy game

wow hoge almost hole in one on 5

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07-02-2020 , 09:22 AM

#960

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i can't believe almost 20% of people rostered will gordon

dfs and the betting markets love recent form so much

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07-02-2020 , 09:43 AM

#961

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

going forward i'm ignoring anything my model says about scottie scheffler

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07-02-2020 , 09:45 AM

#962

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

**** Snedeker, Sheffler, and Im. Already on huge tilt not even halfway through Thursday.

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07-02-2020 , 10:07 AM

#963

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by fortisque

**** Snedeker, Sheffler, and Im. Already on huge tilt not even halfway through Thursday.

So much this.

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07-02-2020 , 10:09 AM

#964

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

i went 0% on snedeker so avoided that disaster

the back 9 seems easier than the front. scheffler gonna go on a streak and birdie all 9

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07-02-2020 , 10:37 AM

#965

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

scheffler really gonna +3 the front 9 on one of the easiest courses on the tour

i should have listened to myself and faded him

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07-02-2020 , 10:41 AM

#966

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,471

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley

i can't believe almost 20% of people rostered will gordon

dfs and the betting markets love recent form so much

he's 66% owned in yahoo 50/50s lol, i think i used him only once despite being min priced and it was gpp only

made a pivot to armour/bramlett/reed/hideki/hoge/hovland and loving it - don't know what i was thinking grillo in cash

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07-02-2020 , 11:16 AM

#967

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

21% of the field duped in the milly. I've got 3/20 duped (only 2x at least) but tons of Scheffler/Sungjae. Faded Doc Redman and he's killing it at high price and ownership obviously.

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07-02-2020 , 11:20 AM

#968

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

doc redman is the #1 golfer in the world

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07-02-2020 , 11:31 AM

#969

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

see everyone next week

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07-02-2020 , 11:39 AM

#970

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

6.6% at 6700 last week, 17.3% at 8500 this week. LOL. What the **** can you do?

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07-02-2020 , 11:58 AM

#971

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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everyone knew how great he always was too. must have been so much value at 6.6k last week

scheffler is amazing. there's a tiny pond on 14 and somehow he puts the ball into it

Quote

07-02-2020 , 12:14 PM

#972

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Maybe Hadwin can catch Redman in the final group on Sunday and win that MU for us. It's only 9:14 AM on Thursday. Way too early to give up and not be delusional.

Quote

07-02-2020 , 12:20 PM

#973

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Rough math says the syndicate should be +$1m sklansky bucks for this Redman/Will Gordon fade; no one runs worse than we do.

Maybe we can refine the model for Scheffler by adding 'Strokes Lost: Yips' in?

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07-02-2020 , 12:55 PM

#974

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Shot 2 174 yds to cart path, 61 ft 7 in. to hole
Shot 1 308 yds to fairway bunker, 165 yds to hole

guess whom

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07-02-2020 , 01:46 PM

#975

Precept24

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Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

I think I have 1 good lineup. The rest have LOLScottie, Sneds, Putnam, or Rory Sab.

Glover, Hatton, DeChambeau, Norlander, Tringale, and Johnson Wagner

I might have one more, even with Sneds who can get hot with a putter.

Redman, Dubcan, DeChambeau, Kisner, Munoz, and Snedeker

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