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Old 06-30-2020, 12:19 PM   #926
TheNonPareil
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Because bookmaker is the only real book left


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Old 06-30-2020, 12:40 PM   #927
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

If Deki wins before real sports comes back it will mark the end of offshore sports betting. Make sure to put in max withdrawals everywhere if he comes out hot on Thursday.
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:21 PM   #928
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rocket Mortgage Classic full tournament head to head:

Patrick Reed - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -116 RISK: 0.75u
Keegan Bradley - Brian Stuard - Match-ups - Brian Stuard Odds: +103 RISK: 0.36u
Viktor Hovland - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -112 RISK: 1.5u
Scottie Scheffler - Bubba Watson - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: -132 RISK: 2.64u
Sungjae Im - Tony Finau - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -119 RISK: 2.38u
Doc Redman - Adam Hadwin - Match-ups - Adam Hadwin Odds: -118 RISK: 0.64u (but Doc Redman course history, 35/1 to win after being 125/1 last week!)
Bryson DeChambeau - Webb Simpson - Match-ups - Webb Simpson Odds: +115 RISK: 0.27u
Sungjae Im - Rickie Fowler - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -127 RISK: 0.88u
Rafael Cabrera Bello - Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: -102 RISK: RISK: 0.4u
Patrick Reed - Viktor Hovland - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -109 RISK: 0.34u
Scott Stallings - Kyle Stanley - Match-ups - Kyle Stanley Odds: -118 RISK: 1.18u
Lucas Glover - Erik van Rooyen - Match-ups - Erik van Rooyen Odds: +101 RISK: 0.33u

More whenever Bookmaker posts theirs

One prop:

Winning Nationality: Non USA +190 [+159 fair]

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 06-30-2020 at 06:27 PM.
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:57 PM   #929
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread



someone really likes Matthew Wolff
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:03 PM   #930
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

He's dirt cheap this week. But it wasn't me.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:07 PM   #931
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

usual book doesn't have KF h2h, but betonline has to win

$250 limit!


Will Zalatoris +1000 [fair: +822]
Greyson Sigg +4000 [fair: +3488]

Zalatoris has been dominating the tour all year. Field weak this week as a lot of the guys are at the rocket Mortgage classic.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:11 PM   #932
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Going to need BM to post some more Marty Trainer MUs to have any chance of approaching last week's volume. Everyone scared.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:26 PM   #933
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

They just copied all the lines out there already after people have been betting them all day.

Classic we going broke move.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:28 PM   #934
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

They keep improving Matsuyamas outright odds too. Must be trying to get it all back on Matsuyama NO.
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Old 06-30-2020, 08:33 PM   #935
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Matsuyama all over the place

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Old 06-30-2020, 08:45 PM   #936
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

three BM ones i bet that moved a lot and don't have value so I won't include them since no one can get them but be on the lookout

BM usually moves a lot back to their original opening

Harman +128 over Day
Bramlett +123 over Wolff
Hatton +169 over Dechambeau
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:26 PM   #937
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
three BM ones i bet that moved a lot and don't have value so I won't include them since no one can get them but be on the lookout

BM usually moves a lot back to their original opening

Harman +128 over Day
Bramlett +123 over Wolff
Hatton +169 over Dechambeau
What would the sizing be on those?
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:05 PM   #938
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Some R1 bets from BM:

Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Christiaan Bezuidenhout -108 - (Scott Stallings vrs Christiaan Bezuidenhout) RISK: 2.16u
Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Erik Van Rooyen -114 - (Erik Van Rooyen vrs Matthew Wolff) RISK: 0.28u
Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Scottie Scheffler -118 - (Scottie Scheffler vrs Lucas Glover) RISK: 1.51u
Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Viktor Hovland -133 - (Viktor Hovland vrs Bubba Watson) RISK: 0.66u
Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Webb Simpson -124 - (Webb Simpson vrs Tony Finau) RISK: 0.81u
Round 1 Matchup - Rocket - Brandt Snedeker -107 - (Doc Redman vrs Brandt Snedeker) RISK: 0.57u

hatton 1.66u
harman 0.68u
brameltt 1.02u

no value at current prices

hatton came back for a little tho

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Old 06-30-2020, 11:12 PM   #939
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

looks like it's back so lets get it

Tournament Matchup - Rocket - Tyrrell Hatton +165 - (Bryson Dechambeau vrs Tyrrell Hatton) RISK: 1.58u
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Old Yesterday, 02:42 AM   #940
CodythePATRIOT
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
If Deki wins before real sports comes back it will mark the end of offshore sports betting. Make sure to put in max withdrawals everywhere if he comes out hot on Thursday.
Confirmed, riding w/ Deki as per orders from above.

Also got some Willett
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Old Yesterday, 09:57 AM   #941
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

One prop I like:

Bryson DeChambeau to MISS the cut +550 (fair +460)

last time he was cut was January 15th on the EURO tour so lets throw this money into the garbage
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Old Yesterday, 10:57 AM   #942
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

some more R1

Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Zac Blair vs. Doc Redman - Zac Blair 145 RISK: 0.92u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Branden Grace vs. Brian Gay - Brian Gay 145 RISK: 0.63u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Keegan Bradley vs. Ryan Armour - Keegan Bradley -114 RISK: 0.23u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Lanto Griffin vs. Patton Kizzire - Lanto Griffin -130 RISK: 2.01u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Charl Schwartzel vs. Peter Malnati - Peter Malnati 117 RISK: 0.79u
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Old Yesterday, 11:34 AM   #943
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I also bet
RD1 Bradley>Grace -115 .38u
RD1 Bramlett>Duncan -118 .42u
RD1 Im>Hatton -107 .65u
RD1 Reed>Dechambeau +117 .3u

curious if these get the sigs approval?

also tripled down with Matsuyama & Scheffler moving up to 17.5 and 36.5 respectively with their odds increasing

also put a buck on Sabbatini (70) and Grillo (140)

happy to see Matt Jones from 200 to 140 now, Tringale from 200 to 145, & Wise from 150 to 80

loving see your conviction plays get better and your $1 punts are chalk

Last edited by rickroll; Yesterday at 11:48 AM.
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Old Yesterday, 07:27 PM   #944
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Bryson really gonna be high-20s ownership in the DK milly? Currently fading him and playing 70% Deki, but gonna play him on FD and Yahoo.
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Old Yesterday, 10:53 PM   #945
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i faded him and didn't put that much hideki either (Well 40%)

i did 50 lineups with groups of

simpson/hatton
simpson/hideki
hatton/hideki

and some im with those guys (mostly with webb)

cash i have no idea what to do. if everyones going bryson i might as well too but i was thinking about using my SE team instead

hideki/scheffler/hadwin/harman/stuard/hoge

been getting crushed tho post covid vs. crushing pre covid. last week was ok but previous two were a disaster
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Old Yesterday, 11:19 PM   #946
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i hope this doesn't curse hideki but i think cash is

hatton/scheffler/hadwin/harman/hubbard/hoge

lot of H's
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Old Yesterday, 11:29 PM   #947
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm mostly on Im + one of those guys. Probably a little too high on Sungjae. Should trim hideki a little and add more to Webb/Hatton. Have a lot of Reed > Hatton spots but I think it's the Deki ownership I want to trim.

For DK cash I think a lot are going Bryson + $6-$7k range but I'm landing on Deki/Scheffler/Sungjae/Wise/2 Punts. Maybe higher EV to copy Bryson + get better on the other 5? Think I'm gonna stick with my original though.
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Old Yesterday, 11:33 PM   #948
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

scheffler is probably a bad play, but i love him too much

with the 9k switching to a 8k can probably get the 2 punts to 7k and lot of good people there.

FD is easier. was able to fit in hatton/im with bez/hadwin/harman/hubbard and have money left over
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Old Yesterday, 11:35 PM   #949
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
I also bet
RD1 Bradley>Grace -115 .38u
RD1 Bramlett>Duncan -118 .42u
RD1 Im>Hatton -107 .65u
RD1 Reed>Dechambeau +117 .3u
i have fair as

bradley -101
bramlett -104
im -111
reed +119

but i also suck at these r1. don't think i've won all year. r2/3 is my sweet spot where people overreact to r1
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Old Yesterday, 11:40 PM   #950
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Hopefully some of this actually holds up. This field sucks and I waited way late on a lot of the odds. I suck too.

Hubbard +11578
Griffin +12000
Poston 40/1
Hoge +12662
Scheffler +3373
Van Rooyen 50/1
Bezenhootie +6558
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