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Old 06-28-2020, 07:55 PM   #901
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Korn Ferry results. No idea how we will recover with the limits. These are hard to predict due to poor shot data.

To Win:
Augusto Nunez +8000 LOSS -1
Lee Hodges +5000 LOSS -1
0-2 -2u

Tournament match-ups:
David Lipsky -110 > Erik Barnes LOSS -1.1
Callum Tarren -105 > Curtis Thompson WIN +1
Alex Cejka -110 > Mickey DeMorat LOSS -1.1
Dylan Wu -120 > Brad Hopfinger WIN +1
Josh Teater -110 > Justin Lower PUSH
John Chin -110 > Dawie Van Der Walt PUSH
Austin Smotherman -110 > Jim Knous LOSS -1.1
Grant Hirschman -115 > Jonathan Garrick LOSS -1.15
Shawn Stefani -105 > Nicholas Lindheim WIN +1
Lee Hodges -115 > KK Limbhaset WIN +1
4-4-2 -0.45u
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:09 PM   #902
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Dylan Frittelli tests positive for COVID, played with Poston and Poulter this week. How's our contact tracing chart look now?

edit: looks like Poston is playing Detroit but Poulter is not.
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:11 PM   #903
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I don't know how Poulter doesn't have it at this point after two rounds with Fritteli and one with Koepka. He must have them antibodies. He's also posting videos of him drunk on instagram so you know he's out there infecting everyone.

Unless he's the source and getting false negatives.

Reed saved DFS for me today. Ended up making money in cash without even cashing any double ups thanks to Reed > Niemann in all the big ones. And only lost $50 in the milly maker. The new strategy of barely playing seems to be profitable! It was fine to max enter 150 when it was only during big tournaments, but not gonna blow $3000/week on lottery tickets. I really think everyone in the tournament is -EV with the payout structure and size. If I needed a million dollars to quit a crappy job or pay off a house then sure I'll dream, but I feel like it's the same thing as playing a 20 team parlay. If the money isn't going to significantly change your life then why bother.

I'm going to print this out and hang it up on my monitor to read for when I'm about to click enter 150 next week.
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Old 06-28-2020, 10:17 PM   #904
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ben An caught a ride home with Poulter based on IG. File those away for Workday/Memorial
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:06 AM   #905
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lets go back to the well

To Win Rocket Mortgage Classic:

Hideki Matsuyama +1800 Risk: 0.49u [+1281]
Scottie Scheffler +3500 RISK: 0.22u [+2441]

I have Bryson DeChambeau as the favorite [+1176] to win, not the +660 that's out there.
Top 10:
Bryson
Webb Simpson
Matsuyama
Reed
Hatton
Im
Scheffler
Hovland
Fowler
Finau

The course is a pretty average course slightly favoring driving distance. You won't see huge bumps based on course fit here. Even my course history bumps here are small.

The highest course history benefactors are Nate Lashley, Potter, Redman, Roach, Tringale but they all add ~0.05 strokes gained. The best decent golfer with course history here is Rory Sabbatini and Patrick Reed, but they're both insignificant gains.

Course fit: Brendon Todd, Armour, Hearn, Stricker. All nobodies.

Overall the field is pretty weak too. No rory, rahm, JT, Xander, Morikawa, Dustin.

Last edited by DefNotRsigley; 06-29-2020 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:47 AM   #906
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

This Bryson price is weird. Betfair is +660/-680 right now, who on earth is bidding -680?

Do you think now that covid is strongly in the mix it makes sense to buy anybody fair to your model or even a little bad? Like letís say you had Scheffler fair +2400ish and best offer was +2300 (I know this is a silly example since heís always offered longer), the covid withdrawal % on Webb/etc could maybe be high enough to make the 2300 +ev?
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:03 PM   #907
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm not seriously considering covid, but it is a concern. Small sample size but all the golfers who withdrew mid-tournament for covid were nobodies. I really think if Bryson is up by 2 going into R4 and tests positive they won't do anything. The leader withdrawing due to covid is a bigger story than Denny McCarthy at +7 withdrawing. If it happens, it happens what can you do. I think it's just as likely to benefit us (like last week when Simpson WD and made our Rory and Rahm bets more valuable even though they lost) than hurt us. Of course we will only remember when it hurt us.

Bryson +660 or close lines are just sportsbooks trying to grift customers IMO. I'm assuming most people would look at this field and immediately think Bryson is a lock. I'm surprised they put Webb 10/1. Before the lines were released I thought Webb and Bryson would both be the same.

The what the line of the week is Doc Redman 35/1. He's had negative putting and ARG all season. This course is going to come down to putting due to being neutral with regards to course fit. Even last week when he was T11 -0.39 putting.
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:05 PM   #908
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

your ranking are interesting, pretty much mirror yahoo's pricing to a t

yahoo even has brendon todd as once of the most expensive guys after your top 10 too lol

have you been moonlighting as a line setter sigs?

current dummy cash line is
matsuyama/hovland/scheffler/armour/clark/redman
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:14 PM   #909
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

DK made it pretty hard to take Bryson with the 11.7k salary.I still have that price with value, but makes roster construction pretty hard

Top value plays (ranked): Matsuyama, Scheffler, Im, Wise, Stricker, DeChambua, Matt Jones, Willett, Snedeker, Varner, Munoz

Worst value plays: Martin Trainer. How is he still allowed on the tour?

Of real players you might play: Finau, English, Fowler, Grillo, Bezuidenhout, Day, Reed, Watson, Na, Doc Redman ($8500?)

Watson, Finau, Fowler, Na are all way too expensive for their skill level.

We've entered a world where Rory Sabbatini is $8,800. Time to find a new value guy.

Think I'm going all asian dominators with Matsuyama/Im or team loses me money every week: Matsuyama/Scheffler
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:30 PM   #910
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Oh sorry I didn't mean factoring in guys withdrawing mid-tournament, I meant buying guys to win who you show as fair without covid. Pre-tournament if your guy gets covid your bet is voided, but if any of the other top10 guys get it and withdraw then your guy goes up in win % right? Like Webb supposedly tested negative but certainly has some risk of not playing again and if he withdraws then Matsuyama/Im/Scheffler win percentage all go up a decent amount, so kind of a corona freeroll?
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:34 PM   #911
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

ohh yea maybe that would work. I mean the one negative then is you're wishing someone gets covid to create more value which I don't know what that would do for your long term karma in the world.

I'd have to run simulations and see something like if X isn't there then what happens to everyone else odds and make some sort of average. It really worked out last week in terms of value tho. Rahm went to 12/1 before Webb withdrew and then down to 10/1, but then he's Jon Rahm. The #1 ranked golfer in the world who can't make a putt.
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:40 PM   #912
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol true it's questionable in the karma department but you could root for Bryson to have a safe asymptomatic covid experience once your other bets are placed
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Old 06-29-2020, 03:11 PM   #913
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
your ranking are interesting, pretty much mirror yahoo's pricing to a t

[...]

current dummy cash line is
matsuyama/hovland/scheffler/armour/clark/redman
Yahoo's $20 min price (10% of cap) is lower than other sites and allows you to make a pretty good stars & scrubs lineup this week I think.

You can play Bryson/Hideki/Sungjae and 3 $20 guys. I think Wise/Stanley are the best two options but not sure where I want to go with the 3rd. Maybe Bramlett or Adam Schenk? Bramlett would put you most over the salary cap on DK/FD if that matters. Scheffler is ~10% more expensive on Yahoo than DK relative to cap.

edit: or maybe bryson/hidkei/hatton then swap Bramlett for a $21-22 guy?

Last edited by critiakx2; 06-29-2020 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 06-29-2020, 05:36 PM   #914
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I noticed Doc Redman's to win odds went OTB so I thought he got COVID. Started searching for his name and there's actually people saying he's an under the radar value at 35/1, what?

I know last year he shot a -19 for 2nd, but the field was a joke then. This is only the second time they're running this course but last year this was the top 10

Lashley -25
Redman -19
Sabbatini/Roach -18
Potter/Snedeker/Stuard/Tringale/Reed/Niemann -17

Only "top" golfers in this tournament were Matsuyama, An, Reed, Im, and Hovland.

Last years variation in scores were due to: putting 44%, around the green 12.6%, approach 33.7%, ott 9.7%

compared to the tour average higher on putting and lower on ott. about the same on the other two. I wouldn't put too much stock into it with only one event and the field last time out.
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Old 06-29-2020, 05:53 PM   #915
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
I noticed Doc Redman's to win odds went OTB so I thought he got COVID. Started searching for his name and there's actually people saying he's an under the radar value at 35/1, what?

I know last year he shot a -19 for 2nd, but the field was a joke then. This is only the second time they're running this course but last year this was the top 10

Lashley -25
Redman -19
Sabbatini/Roach -18
Potter/Snedeker/Stuard/Tringale/Reed/Niemann -17

Only "top" golfers in this tournament were Matsuyama, An, Reed, Im, and Hovland.

Last years variation in scores were due to: putting 44%, around the green 12.6%, approach 33.7%, ott 9.7%

compared to the tour average higher on putting and lower on ott. about the same on the other two. I wouldn't put too much stock into it with only one event and the field last time out.
I bet him at 200/1 last week. Good young player but lol at 35/1.
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Old 06-29-2020, 05:57 PM   #916
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

How is that variation in score due to stroke type calculated? Looks like Lashley was a major outlier last year at -25 with somehow only 0.6 gained OTT and 9.3 putting. Redman also only gained 1 stroke OTT and 4.7 putting. DJ missed the cut here last year and was bad all around, but not sure if it's taking historical player stats vs. course into account.

Could've been Denny McCarthy's week I guess if he putting is so important, too bad for him
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Old 06-29-2020, 06:07 PM   #917
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

based on projections going in. could also be due to my bad projections

i bet on redman a bunch in h2h but yea i have him under 1% to win. i'd take 150/1 as min.

i'd rather take Aaron Wise over him. He has some value at his 150/1 price and is the same type of golfer. Munoz is another good punt at 150/1
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Old 06-29-2020, 06:48 PM   #918
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Harris English positive for COVID.

Our chart isn't good at predicting any of this. 0/3 so far.
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:03 AM   #919
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by critiakx2 View Post
Yahoo's $20 min price (10% of cap) is lower than other sites and allows you to make a pretty good stars & scrubs lineup this week I think.

You can play Bryson/Hideki/Sungjae and 3 $20 guys. I think Wise/Stanley are the best two options but not sure where I want to go with the 3rd. Maybe Bramlett or Adam Schenk? Bramlett would put you most over the salary cap on DK/FD if that matters. Scheffler is ~10% more expensive on Yahoo than DK relative to cap.

edit: or maybe bryson/hidkei/hatton then swap Bramlett for a $21-22 guy?
yeah i used to always go 2-3 min priced guys and the cream of the crop - i think for cash this is very viable most weeks but their low min prices make it super easy to get extreme low ownership just rostering a team of guys in the 30s for gpp

interesting thoughts on bramlett, never heard of him before, will take a closer look

am also tempted to do bryson/hideki/im type build as there's really not much in the middle this week (something about hatton rubs me the wrong way)

kh lee was my go to $20 slam pig for a while last year but i feel like his moment in the spotlight is over

sad to redman go from $20 to $29 this week, goes to show how week the field is
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:50 AM   #920
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

love how the books go list 2/3 of the field, like all the guys who would be under 200:1 and then still leave a "any golfer not listed +300"

genuinely curious if that every gets clicked
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Old 06-30-2020, 02:00 AM   #921
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

tailed on deki +1470 and scottie +3397 and then threw a dollar each at tringale 180/Jones 200/Wise 150
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:23 AM   #922
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rocket Mortgage Classic Round 1 Bets:

Sungjae Im vs. Tony Finau - Sungjae Im -123 RISK: 0.41u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Bryson DeChambeau vs. Hideki Matsuyama - Hideki Matsuyama +117 RISK: 2u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Patrick Reed vs. Hideki Matsuyama - Hideki Matsuyama -105 RISK: 0.76u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Bubba Watson vs. Jason Day - Jason Day -108 RISK: 1.03u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Bubba Watson vs. Brendon Todd - Brendon Todd 106 RISK: 1.29u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Jason Day vs. Brendon Todd - Jason Day -108 RISK: 0.56u
Golf - Fed-Ex 500 Round 1 - Brandt Snedeker vs. Sungjae Im - Sungjae Im -130 RISK: 1.43u

For some reason they have 5K limits on R1 but red circle $500 on full tournament. If you don't believe in our lord and savior Hideki Matsuyama I would sit out this week.

No value in any of the Make/Miss cut props posted. Or playoffs/shots winning by.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:27 AM   #923
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lebioda seems to be back. Might want to consider him as a min/near-min priced guy.

I'll run some data this afternoon and report back.

Stanley at 7100 on DK seems fishy.

Seamus Power piqued my interest this morning. He's good in the key ranges (125-150, 150-175, and 200+) and putting this week. Min-priced on DK. I know he's been a middling KFT guy, but that's exactly what this tourney is.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:13 AM   #924
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Two group bets:

Scheffler Top American +2200
Danny Willet Top European +1800
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:32 AM   #925
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Bookmaker's outright numbers are always amazing compared to everywhere else (even exchanges). Got Im +2675, Hatton +1802, Deki +1925, and Scheffler +4250. Webb +1475 there is decent too but I didn't play it.
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