Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 33 - Sports Betting

i think it's safe to say your h2hs are much bigger than mine but i've never found anything but misery and pain when deviating from a single cash line

much better to lose everything than to second guess yourself later

easier said with the stake i play though

Amounts are relative/irrelevant. If you can come up with two lineups that have an equalish edge with minimal to 0 overlap then you can justify risking more. And we want to risk as much as possible so that when the next Corona Virus strikes we don't find ourselves waking up at 3 AM to bet an extra 50k on golf that has an expected ROI of 1%.

Quote

06-25-2020 , 06:57 AM

#802

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Looks like everyone played Bryson in cash on Yahoo and everyone went Harman > Moore for $27 at a quick 5am glance.

Hovland/Bryson chalkiest in the DK millionaire. Sungjae/Woodland/JT/Finau/Morikawa all >20%. I have 2/20 duped in the milly (3x, 4x with a 0.8% Aaron Wise somehow), 27% of the field is duped.

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06-25-2020 , 06:58 AM

#803

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by critiakx2

27% of the field is duped.

Smh, buy $DKNG

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06-25-2020 , 07:10 AM

#804

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Top two dupe trains somehow include Rose too. 25% of the field played him in cash.

Looks like Brooks & Webb only carried 0.5% ownership in the milly but still ahead of ~60 golfers. I've got a couple <1% guys but no one below Kopeka line.

Time to go back to sleep and tilt from late withdrawals later

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06-25-2020 , 07:53 AM

#805

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by critiakx2

Yahoo cash went with Rory/Rahm/Ancer/Fitz/Moore/ [insert min-price guy]. Wanted to play Bryson since he's cheaper there than other sites so went there for tourneys.

just don't bumhunt me bro

i went with redman as defacto $20 guy this week

yeah I liked Bryson but wasn't going near him until i stop seeing pictures of how ripped he is every time i open twitter

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06-25-2020 , 07:56 AM

#806

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

agreed, but for me I'm not playing with enough volume to equally distribute it to deal with the mental anguish of entering the "wrong" cash line in the $270 etc and the "right" one in the $5

once had a guy sit me for $270 and I sat him for $1 (all he posted) and he different lines and his $1 won but his $270 lost, never saw that guy again in the h2h streets

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06-25-2020 , 08:22 AM

#807

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by critiakx2

27% of the field is duped.

One dude max entered the same lineup.

"Shoutout to E.TEarlThomas for running the top duped lineup 150 times. https://t.co/tQBtWyX8fO"

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06-25-2020 , 08:59 AM

#808

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by Precept24

One dude max entered the same lineup.

"Shoutout to E.TEarlThomas for running the top duped lineup 150 times. https://t.co/tQBtWyX8fO"

usually they entered a dummy and forgot to update it, been a few times i was caught up in a work project and had to panic edit

last soccer slate while in a conference call realized slate was about to lock and frantically began editing the dummy lineups and ran out of time so just ran a few individual ones and one big train

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06-25-2020 , 09:20 AM

#809

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

looks like the back 9 is the easiest in the history of golf

scheffler started good but then put it in the water on 8.

at least cantlay is dominating

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06-25-2020 , 09:22 AM

#810

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

I got a "could be rusty" vibe from Cantlay. I've got some ownership of him, but not as much as I should've had.

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06-25-2020 , 10:15 AM

#811

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

This is what I wound up with in the millionaire maker. Very on brand to be half dead before I even get the chance to post thanks to Horschel.

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06-25-2020 , 10:41 AM

#812

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

scheffler in the water again

need to start tracking tee 2 water metric

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06-25-2020 , 10:52 AM

#813

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

This is what I wound up with in the millionaire maker. Very on brand to be half dead before I even get the chance to post thanks to Horschel.

150x yeah? really admire you make a stand, i do the same but never like that

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06-25-2020 , 10:54 AM

#814

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

****ing Scheffler

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06-25-2020 , 10:55 AM

#815

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by rickroll

150x yeah? really admire you make a stand, i do the same but never like that

Yes. It has become a 3k a week leak.

Quote

06-25-2020 , 11:15 AM

#816

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

Yes. It has become a 3k a week leak.

i've come to the realization that it'll be a very, very long time before i can ever get to a dfs br to go for it in such a skewed payout system but hot damn i admire your style for going for it and agree it's better to have a very narrow range - last thing you want to do is be on the right guys but not get the exact perfect combo

Quote

06-25-2020 , 02:47 PM

#817

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

if you take out scheffler putting it in the water he would have been easily -3 or -4 for the day.

our only benefit is corey conners is worse and that should even us up for the day on him

I went a different overweight and just locked Rory and Xander then made all my lineups like that. I think it might be better to lock in the big guys and if they hit hope you hit the lotto with what scrub is gonna do good that week.

no Mackenzie Hughes tho

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06-25-2020 , 02:51 PM

#818

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

fitzmagic in the water too jesus

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06-25-2020 , 03:00 PM

#819

4BetBoke

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,568

Is that what that was? The shot tracker was all over the place. He's my big bet this week.

Hughes and Duncan are the two players I removed from my long shots, wp me.

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06-25-2020 , 03:26 PM

#820

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

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Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

lol the week i put in less lineups because of covid this is happening

just lock rory, xander and go overweight on sergio

easy game

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06-25-2020 , 03:31 PM

#821

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

fitzmagic into the water again on 15. what is going on

is this coronavirus

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06-25-2020 , 03:43 PM

#822

4BetBoke

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,568

Made a dogs dinner of 16 too

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06-25-2020 , 03:46 PM

#823

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Scheffler & Horschel hurting--had 60% and 40% in the milly respectively. Seems like Rory/Xander lock was a good play. I thought Rory/Rahm would be the two highest owned instead of Bryson/JT. Ended up with 50% Rahm, 30% Rory, 25% JT, 5% Bryson.

Yahoo lineup doing well with Rory > Bryson, Moore > Harman (currently), and Rodgers/Wise doing well as punts at least.