Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-24-2020, 02:37 PM   #776
TheNonPareil
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 2,028
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Wait you win a matchup bet if you bet against someone that withdrawals?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
TheNonPareil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 02:43 PM   #777
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Webb Simpson withdrew too. What a cluster.

If they start the tournament and your opponent withdraws in R2 due to covid you should win based on the rules. If they don't start it's cancelled.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 02:48 PM   #778
TheNonPareil
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 2,028
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ah ok I gotcha.

Well on the bright side this should help out our Rory Rahm Im odds to win.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
TheNonPareil is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 03:22 PM   #779
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 342
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good news from the commish. Positive tests expected no problem with everyone else playing if they're fine with it.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 03:29 PM   #780
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

It's a good thing we didn't switch to 100,000 simulations per round this week. Takes about 15 minutes for just 10,000 and re-running it for the 4th time now due to Webb news.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 04:07 PM   #781
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,438
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm not rererunning. I'm just superoverweight on Rahm now, due to laziness. I'm drinking by a pool. F-that.

Most of my Webb shares went to Rahm, while my Brooks share went to Cantlay.

It's easier.

Oh, and I got a little Sahith Theegala at 6300. This kid can play. Maybe won't work out this week, but keep an eye out.
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 04:17 PM   #782
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Didn't stop me from submitting my 150 losers but DK milly ownership going to be a disaster with Brooks and Webb out.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 04:30 PM   #783
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 342
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Was heavy on Rory/Rahm/Sungjae first run already. Amateur contact tracers are suggesting Rory & Reed could have been exposed to Brooks' caddie. Maybe Cantlay/Rose are the two lowest owned >$9k who don't have covid?
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 04:31 PM   #784
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Benefits from Webb being out

Rahm down to +1082 (from +1400 or so before), so our +16XX looks good
Rory down to +1004
Im +2799
Scheffler +4517

our Xander top American prop got a lot of value

DFS bad tho because I think Webb Simpson would have been high owned and not that good this week, but what can you do.

I was going to go Im/Morikawa/Reed/Fitz/Scheff/Hovland on DK for cash

and replace Reed for Leishman on FD

maybe we should load up on non north american golfers tho because we haven't figured out covid yet.

If I try and fit in Rahm or JT then I have to go Ryan Moore and I don't really want that.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 04:35 PM   #785
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,438
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I thought Webb would've been sneaky low owned. Last week he was 9800 on DK and the jump on price to 10500 to 3rd when Rahm is cheaper, led me to think he'd be underowned.

I had him in 1/3 of my lineups, though.
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 05:05 PM   #786
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Travelers Round 1:

Round 1 Matchup - Travelers - Patrick Reed +110 - (Abraham Ancer vrs Patrick Reed) RISK: 0.85u
Round 1 Matchup - Travelers - Scottie Scheffler -120 - (Scottie Scheffler vrs Keegan Bradley) RISK: 2.4u
Round 1 Matchup - Travelers - Chez Reavie -101 - (Chez Reavie vrs Ryan Palmer) RISK: 0.78u
Branden Grace - Harold Varner III - Match-ups - Harold Varner III Odds: -118 RISK: 0.7u
Joel Dahmen - Ryan Moore - Match-ups - Ryan Moore Odds: -104 RISK: 0.42u
Justin Rose - Tony Finau - Match-ups - Tony Finau Odds: +118 RISK: 1.12u
Dustin Johnson - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: +105 RISK: 1.18u
Bubba Watson - Sung Kang - Match-ups - Sung Kang Odds: +153 RISK: 1u
Patrick Rodgers - Emiliano Grillo - Match-ups - Emiliano Grillo Odds: +106 RISK: 1.32u
Brian Harman (1st Rnd) -105 vs Ian Poulter (1st Rnd) RISK: 0.91u
Scottie Scheffler (1st Rnd) +120 vs Corey Conners (1st Rnd) RISK: 2u
Chez Reavie (1st Rnd) -105 vs Keegan Bradley (1st Rnd) RISK: 0.14u
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 07:24 PM   #787
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I read that the two caddies who tested positive were both at the same funeral on Monday June 15th prior to RBC Heritage

If we are playing fade the corona

Vaughn Taylor and Luke List played with Nick Watney on day 1

Vaughn Taylor played with CT Pan and Joel Dahmen (Day 3)

Dahmen played with Joaquin Niemann (Day 4)

McDowell played with Louis Oosthuizen (cut) and Lanto Griffin (cut)

Brooks Koepka played with Daniel Berger (2), Ian Poulter (3), Dustin Johnson (4), Patrick Reed (2, cut after 2)

Berger played with Ortiz (4), Spieth (3)

Poulter played with Fitzpatrick (4)

Spieth played with Danny Lee (4)

All those people could have been infected.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 08:47 PM   #788
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 342
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Making any adjustments based on your first-hand knowledge of the corona?

Initially have Rahm & Moore for cash but can see where a little more balance and higher made cut chance could have a higher median.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 09:11 PM   #789
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm worried with Reed and Fitzpatrick in my COVID-19 tracking model. Think I'm going to have to set an alarm for 3am to check.

Only gonna do 20 max for millionaire. Not gonna deal with this max entering during covid. Tho it might be the only way to win. COVID leverage
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 09:17 PM   #790
El Sueno
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 69
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
I read that the two caddies who tested positive were both at the same funeral on Monday June 15th prior to RBC Heritage

If we are playing fade the corona

Vaughn Taylor and Luke List played with Nick Watney on day 1

Vaughn Taylor played with CT Pan and Joel Dahmen (Day 3)

Dahmen played with Joaquin Niemann (Day 4)

McDowell played with Louis Oosthuizen (cut) and Lanto Griffin (cut)

Brooks Koepka played with Daniel Berger (2), Ian Poulter (3), Dustin Johnson (4), Patrick Reed (2, cut after 2)

Berger played with Ortiz (4), Spieth (3)

Poulter played with Fitzpatrick (4)

Spieth played with Danny Lee (4)

All those people could have been infected.
If player/caddie hasn't tested positive by now, the next date they will be tested is Saturday. However, they will only be tested on Saturday if they are playing the next event AND taking the charter flight to Rocket Mortgage. Results from this test come back by Sunday morning, so that would be the next time they could have a positive test unless they experience symptoms/self-report like Watney.

Of all the players listed above, only the guys listed below are playing Rocket Mortgage:

Pan, Vaughn, Dahmen, Lanto, DJ, Danny Lee

This could change by Friday however when the deadline hits. If they aren't playing next week, my understanding of the testing procedure is that they will not be tested for the remainder of the week.
El Sueno is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 09:23 PM   #791
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I hope they don't do some increased testing to show they're trying to contain an un-containable virus.

I'll probably just keep everything but wake up at 3am just in case. Don't want to throw away 10k in cash games over something stupid like Reed coughing too much.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 09:53 PM   #792
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I probably overdid DFS cash. Looked into diversifying but projected score goes to **** really fast if I start pulling out my most undervalued guys. I have all those dudes in match-ups and as outrights too. I wonder how John Kelly would feel about overbetting your edge amidst a global pandemic. Does uncertainty over future earning potential make it okay to YOLO it or is it even worse?
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 10:48 PM   #793
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

scottie scheffler steam is coming in late

we did it guys
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 11:11 PM   #794
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Bookmaker just posted a bunch of match-ups with 10k limits involving the Martin Trainer's of the world. Covid must have broken the brain of their graveyard shift golf trader.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 11:23 PM   #795
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Xinjun Zhang vs. DJ Trahan lol i gotta look at these
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 11:26 PM   #796
Iowa!
old hand
 
Iowa!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,615
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Been waiting my whole life for this moment, it feels like a trap.
Iowa! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2020, 11:35 PM   #797
fkjlhfdkjhkj.
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,270
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Golf [ADDED]

Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Luke Donald -126 - (Patton Kizzire vrs Luke Donald) RISK: 1.16u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Zach Johnson +100 - (Dylan Frittelli vrs Zach Johnson) RISK: 0.3u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Cameron Tringale +143 - (Lucas Glover vrs Cameron Tringale) RISK: 0.7u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Ryan Armour +115 - (Tyler Duncan vrs Ryan Armour) RISK: 0.28u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Austin Cook +150 - (C.T. Pan vrs Austin Cook) RISK: 1.5u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - DJ Trahan +100 - (DJ Trahan vrs Xinjun Zhang) RISK: 0.35u

I was hoping we would have a bet on Vijay Singh but guess not. I like how Martin Trainer at +300 doesn't even have value for me. How is he allowed to golf.
fkjlhfdkjhkj. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2020, 05:35 AM   #798
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
I probably overdid DFS cash. Looked into diversifying but projected score goes to **** really fast if I start pulling out my most undervalued guys. I have all those dudes in match-ups and as outrights too. I wonder how John Kelly would feel about overbetting your edge amidst a global pandemic. Does uncertainty over future earning potential make it okay to YOLO it or is it even worse?
i think it's safe to say your h2hs are much bigger than mine but i've never found anything but misery and pain when deviating from a single cash line

much better to lose everything than to second guess yourself later


easier said with the stake i play though
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2020, 05:56 AM   #799
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 11,013
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

really struggling to decide upon a cash line for yahoo

currently on rahm/cantlay/moore/fitz/scheffler/tringale
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2020, 06:45 AM   #800
critiakx2
journeyman
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 342
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yahoo cash went with Rory/Rahm/Ancer/Fitz/Moore/ [insert min-price guy]. Wanted to play Bryson since he's cheaper there than other sites so went there for tourneys.
critiakx2 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:08 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive