Quote:
Originally Posted by critiakx2
For the random component, do some players inherently have more volatility than others? Would think someone who makes more birdies + bogeys would be more volatile than someone with the same average score who makes more pars. Could go deeper too as some skills (putting) are more volatile than others. I assume everyone has a pretty similar variance which is probably a mistake.
yep tons. That's why someone like Vaughn Taylor (he's an extreme example and always pops up every week when I look why I use him a lot) is hard to figure out. He is top 3 (might even be leading now) in birdies in the last year but he's also something like top 10 in bogeys. And it's not like he goes one round all birdies then all bogeys, it just happens every round.
He's one of my highest variance players so when I generate the randomness for him his projections have a wide band.
BM Full tournament bets. They have the Scheffler/Conner bet we got earlier at better odds, so I re-bet it. That's going to be our big loser this week. I can feel it.
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Paul Casey +126 - (Paul Casey vrs Abraham Ancer) RISK: 0.7u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Patrick Cantlay +118 - (Patrick Cantlay vrs Xander Schauffele) RISK: 1.49u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Webb Simpson -141 - (Webb Simpson vrs Brooks Koepka) RISK: 1.39u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Patrick Cantlay +105 - (Patrick Cantlay vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 2u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Xander Schauffele -126 - (Xander Schauffele vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 1.5u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Patrick Reed -132 - (Patrick Reed vrs Sergio Garcia) RISK: 0.58u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Marc Leishman +103 - (Tony Finau vrs Marc Leishman) RISK: 0.66u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Billy Horschel -144 - (Billy Horschel vrs Ryan Palmer) RISK: 1.27u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Scottie Scheffler +100 - (Corey Conners vrs Scottie Scheffler) RISK: 2u
Tournament Matchup - Travelers - Chez Reavie -104 - (Chez Reavie vrs Keegan Bradley) RISK: 0.83u