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Old 06-18-2020, 05:48 PM   #651
Precept24
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Harry Higgs!!!!

I knew my sims could produce bad results, because of the data going in. Spieth, Koepka, and Fitzpatrick graded out poorly for me (previously stated).


Knowing I could be wrong, I decided to throw them all in one lineup. It's my best lineup right now.

Hideki and Sungjae are killing me. That, and thinking I was overweight on Webb caused me to back off him a bit.

Webb's 58% owned in the $2 Double Up.
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Old 06-18-2020, 06:57 PM   #652
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ended up maxing into the million maker after all with 78% Hideki exposure. How do we do it?
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Old 06-18-2020, 07:54 PM   #653
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Perez really has wobbly feet on American soil.

I somehow ended up yoloing into a 10 person line up, Munoz, Hughes and Van Rooyen all worked out well though
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:35 PM   #654
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Not looking good boys. I have Hideki about 20% to make the cut. Hard to win when your -3.2 shots gained from putting and -0.69 from around the green and -0.65 tee to green. I believe tho. The tournament pre-masters covid he did the same thing and magically made the cut on the last hole. Also ran into trouble when Rahm put it in the water and so did Kuchar.

At least BM posted early. But of course they did it while I was eating dinner. Can't win with them.


Justin Thomas - Jon Rahm - Match-ups - Jon Rahm Odds: +103 RISK: 0.66u WIN +0.68u
Hideki Matsuyama - Gary Woodland - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -119 RISK: 1.4u LOSS -1.4
Patrick Reed - Daniel Berger - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -120 RISK: 0.3u LOSS -0.3u
Jordan Spieth - Kevin Kisner - Match-ups - Kevin Kisner Odds: -106 RISK: 0.95u LOSS -0.95u (i dunno with spieth anymore)
Luke List - Vaughn Taylor - Match-ups - Vaughn Taylor Odds: -106 RISK: 1.43u WIN +1.35
Byeong-Hun An - Harris English - Match-ups - Harris English Odds: +105 RISK: 0.4u WIN +0.42u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Joel Dahmen -115 - (Bubba Watson vrs Joel Dahmen) RISK: 0.87u WIN +0.76u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Hideki Matsuyama -111 - (Billy Horschel vrs Hideki Matsuyama) RISK: 1.96u LOSS -1.96u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Matt Kuchar -116 - (Matt Kuchar vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 0.27u PUSH
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Sungjae Im -114 - (Sungjae Im vrs Gary Woodland) RISK: 1.14u LOSS -1.14u
4-5-1 -2.54u on 9.38u risked

Round 2:

BM:
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Joel Dahmen -121 - (Bubba Watson vrs Joel Dahmen) RISK: 0.14u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Rickie Fowler -108 - (Jason Kokrak vrs Rickie Fowler) RISK: 0.82u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Hideki Matsuyama -101 - (Billy Horschel vrs Hideki Matsuyama) RISK: 2.02u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Matt Kuchar -110 - (Matt Kuchar vrs Justin Rose) RISK:0.85u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Sungjae Im -107 - (Sungjae Im vrs Gary Woodland) RISK: 2.14u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Webb Simpson -132 - (Dustin Johnson vrs Webb Simpson) RISK: 0.12u
Round 2 Matchup - RBC - Patrick Reed +113 - (Collin Morikawa vrs Patrick Reed) RISK: 0.92u

Pinnacle:

Ernie Els - Bernhard Langer - Match-ups - Bernhard Langer Odds: -114 RISK: 0.49u
Tyrrell Hatton - Joaquin Niemann - Match-ups - Tyrrell Hatton Odds: -123 RISK: 0.86u
Daniel Berger - Brooks Koepka - Match-ups - Brooks Koepka Odds: +118 RISK: 0.85u
Joel Dahmen - Harold Varner III - Match-ups - Harold Varner III Odds: +116 RISK: 0.6u
Luke List - Vaughn Taylor - Match-ups - Vaughn Taylor Odds: -125 RISK: 0.2u
Ryan Palmer - Chez Reavie - Match-ups - Chez Reavie Odds: -106 RISK: 0.44u
Louis Oosthuizen - Graeme McDowell - Match-ups - Louis Oosthuizen Odds: -127 RISK: 1u
Max Homa - Adam Hadwin - Match-ups - Adam Hadwin Odds: -104 RISK: 0.88u
Jon Rahm - Justin Thomas - Match-ups - Jon Rahm Odds: -101 RISK: 0.68u
Rafael Cabrera Bello - Emiliano Grillo - Match-ups - Emiliano Grillo Odds: +109 RISK: 0.22u
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Danny Lee - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: -111 RISK: 0.63u
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:39 PM   #655
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Luckily, -3.197 was putting; putting is the least sticky stat. I'm more worried about -0.651 SG-T2G. I'm getting a last week's Webb-like vibe from him.

Maybe next week is the week we should load up on him at a cheaper price.

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Old 06-18-2020, 10:54 PM   #656
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Matsuyama now -126 over Horschel. Can't wait to get crushed again.
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Old 06-18-2020, 11:40 PM   #657
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

anyone get these two bets cancelled? can't find any info on why they would be



is it like last week where they cancel it and then grade it as a loss when redman loses
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:33 AM   #658
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Couple punt to wins with value

Brice Garnett +6600 RISK: 0.26u
Fitzpatrick +2500 RISK: 0.21u
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6600 RISK: 0.08u
Mark Hubbard +5000 RISK: 0.21u
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Old 06-19-2020, 08:34 AM   #659
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Matusyama stinking it up already.
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Old 06-19-2020, 09:03 AM   #660
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good run guys. We just have to pray that Rose and Woodland somehow do worse
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Old 06-19-2020, 09:11 AM   #661
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rose just put it in the water on 15, lets go.
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Old 06-19-2020, 09:59 AM   #662
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The predicted cut line is -4 or -5. So many people gonna get cut thanks to scrubs dominating
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Old 06-19-2020, 11:13 AM   #663
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Apparently Webb is never gonna miss a putt
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Old 06-19-2020, 11:55 AM   #664
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Corey Conners at 80-1 not looking too bad currently..
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:09 PM   #665
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

My ROI betting on Hideki since 2016 is -40.15%. We might have to launch an investigation.
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:27 PM   #666
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
My ROI betting on Hideki since 2016 is -40.15%. We might have to launch an investigation.
yea but how bout that clutch putt on 18 to push his MU w/ Billy Ho? Almost makes up for all the other money I lost on him this tournament. No wait thats not true at all.

Really gonna need the PM to play harder again today. Cut line -4 one time plz.
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Old 06-19-2020, 12:37 PM   #667
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

at least we got a sweat

gonna need the million to break even this week



i like how being in the 0.000209% only pays 47.5x your entry
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:30 PM   #668
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fitzpatrick is such a beast

eagle on hole 2

gotta lock him every week until people figure out
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:56 PM   #669
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Old 06-19-2020, 04:47 PM   #670
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Oh god, I'm finally primed for a winning week and we're gonna get cancelled
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Old 06-19-2020, 04:49 PM   #671
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i'm crushing everything, especially cash. but i'm only gonna get 4/6 through because of hideki and horschel. horschel is the worst. missed about 9 birdie putts today
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Old 06-19-2020, 05:57 PM   #672
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

and r2 suspended for weather so we probably aren't going to get many, if any at all, r3 lines.

what a horrible tournament. need a covid bailout now
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:24 PM   #673
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

the scare articles are already starting

https://www.express.co.uk/sport/golf...itive-PGA-Tour

anyone booking bets on whether this event is cancelled? i'd say if one more person tests positive tomorrow it's done
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Old 06-19-2020, 07:45 PM   #674
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

R2 expected to resume at 7:45 ET. will be doubtful to get all players in, last groups on the course are on 13 right now.

Need Xander to miss the cut, I have Rahm big vs him.
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Old 06-19-2020, 08:09 PM   #675
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

ofc he birdies the last to make it on the number
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