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Old 06-17-2020, 01:43 PM   #626
Precept24
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'm curious what your thoughts are on why BK is projected so low to make the cut?



Also thinking the same about Fitz it we are giving any credibility to course fit here with accuracy likely carrying more of a premium than most venues?
Statistically, Koepka's been bad since his last win. Negative SG-APP, awful birdie rate, and bad scrambling.

I didn't expect Fitz to trade out so poorly either. I like Fitz as a player. Low birdie rate on all holes, average bogey avoidance rate, meh on scrambling.


Maybe I'm overweighting those, but I'm just following the numbers.
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Old 06-17-2020, 02:07 PM   #627
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fwiw fitzpatrick is 9/9 on cuts made this year

he is good for mid-30s tho on the pga. much better on euro.
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Old 06-17-2020, 02:32 PM   #628
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Here are all those leverage graphs. I focused on top 10% instead of top 20. Then did win for top guys and cut for really cheap (<6.3k) guys

https://imgur.com/a/NUiNe3o

Couple stand outs

In the scrubs category Brice Garnett, Kyle Stanley, Denny McCarthy, Armour, and the two grouped together Kyoung-Hoon Lee and Michael Thompson. I have Thompson slightly better.

Slightly better than scrubs category: Baddeley, Wise, Long, Burgoon, Hubbard, Carlos Ortiz, Troy Merrit. Tringale is in there but his ownership projection is pretty high.

BEtween 6.5-7 here's where you get some good choices for top 10%.

Taylor, Moroe, Todd, Reavie, Knox looks over owned, Munoz, Hoge, Van Rooyen, Jones, Willett, Landry, Putnam, Howell, etc. Looks like this is going to the deciding factor for a million.

7-7.5k got Furyk, Sabbatini, English, Bezuidenhout, etc. All the good guys here looks like they're projected to be over owned.

Might be a good category to fade outside of Furyk, Sabbatini, and English.

7.5k-8k Fitzpatrick in there. Horschel, Hovland, OOs, Snedeker, An, etc. Good mix of ownership here and not really anyone too far from proj outside of Snedeker and Lowry.

8-9k Reed looks slightly underowned. Same as the previous range outside of Ancer.

Big guys. Rahm looks like a huge leverage play. He was great last week outside of putting.

Something to think about too - how many of the super cheap guys do you really need? Most of my unique lineups only had 1-2 last week and the guy who won only had 1. Maybe a good strat is just pick bombers and then sprinkle in one scrub each.
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Old 06-17-2020, 03:04 PM   #629
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Looks like Tringale is out too. Wonder how that will redistribute his huge 4% ownership
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Old 06-17-2020, 04:43 PM   #630
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

This could be helpful too. Five golfers in my database are saving 0.2 strokes per round based on course history in my projections.

1) Luke Donald (0.31)
2) Aaron Baddeley (0.26)
3) Matt Kuchar (0.24)
4) Rory Sabbatini (0.24)
5) Jim Furyk (0.18)

Biggest strokes gained based on course fit. I value driving distance and driving accuracy mostly here.

1) Jim Furyk (0.36)
2) Glen Day (no idea who this guy is, he's still losing ~1.6 strokes based on sucking) (0.34)
3) Brian Stuard (0.30)
4) KJ Choi (0.30)
5) Brendon Todd (0.29)

Bigger losers based on course fit. All are due to driving distance

1) Rory (-0.37)
2) Matthre Wolff (-0.33)
3) Dustin Johnson (-0.32) [tho he leads in the strokes gained category]
4) Bubba Watson (-0.30)
5) Brooks Koepka (-0.29)

The driving accuracy isn't that big of a weight, but it benefits Furyk the most and Martin Trainer the least.
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:13 PM   #631
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I am too lazy to run the numbers, but it feels like betting non-leaders heading into Sunday could be a profitable wager. I don't know how often, historically, the 54-hole leader ends up winning, but they seem to be consistently overvalued.

For example last week Berger was 2 shots behind Schauffele heading into Sun. Xander was around 4-1, which is overpriced imo based on such a packed leaderboard. I wagered Berger 26-1 and Bryson 21-1.

If the leader is a big name like Rory or Tiger they are even more overvalued, while players a shot or 2 back with less general name recognition are often good values.

Just my observation, seems more profitable than trying to guess the winner pre-tournament.
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:16 PM   #632
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm thinking accuracy off the tee IS important this week. Harbor Town is a short, tight course where positioning off the tee is important for attacking pins. I went with some OTT, APP, ARG, plus scrambling. I remember these greens are tiny, so it's mainly an Approach plus a Scrambling week with accuracy off the tee as a key contributor.
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Old 06-17-2020, 06:24 PM   #633
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
I am too lazy to run the numbers, but it feels like betting non-leaders heading into Sunday could be a profitable wager. I don't know how often, historically, the 54-hole leader ends up winning, but they seem to be consistently overvalued.

For example last week Berger was 2 shots behind Schauffele heading into Sun. Xander was around 4-1, which is overpriced imo based on such a packed leaderboard. I wagered Berger 26-1 and Bryson 21-1.

If the leader is a big name like Rory or Tiger they are even more overvalued, while players a shot or 2 back with less general name recognition are often good values.

Just my observation, seems more profitable than trying to guess the winner pre-tournament.
Nah, every week varies depending on the golfers involved and respective prices.
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Old 06-17-2020, 07:03 PM   #634
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Taking a shot on Rahm this week after the missed cut last week, added in honest abe and the can't putt heros. (all 20% 1-9)

Rahm @ 17.0 1.9 units
Ancer @ 56.0 0.65 units
An / Conners @ 81.0 0.38 units
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Old 06-17-2020, 11:43 PM   #635
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

crushing to win and 1st round

getting crushed by full tournament

no idea what is going on
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Old 06-18-2020, 06:23 AM   #636
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yahoo's pricing way different this week

JT/Rahm/Fitzpatrick/Moore/Sabbatini/Taylor

going to run a couple variations and 1-2 pivots but not much

trying to fit in some simpson and matsuyama, will be tinkering, in a few 270 and 109s that are looking good for overlay, fingers crossed
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Old 06-18-2020, 06:49 AM   #637
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...4115/112633343

faded the last minute fill, now just gotta hope my island line makes that cut - pretty happy overall, i normally do a "how come i didn't come up with that combo?" but looking at these guys i like mine by far, they are leaning too much on the brand names and "recent" hot play

best part is nobody has matsuyama so don't he can crush it and not hurt my cash line
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:47 AM   #638
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

damn last night i almost went a full fade of rory in the milly maker because of the course fit thing i posted above. but i had him way too good even with the negative

instead 29% of lineups gonna be dead
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Old 06-18-2020, 10:16 AM   #639
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Three of our big R1 H2H steamed against us making us look really bad if you judge on closing line value. Lets check in to see how they're doing.

English -4, An +4 (we have English +105)
Kisner -3, Spieth +1 (Kisner -106)
Taylor -4, List -1 (Taylor -106)

Rough night for Taiwan
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Old 06-18-2020, 11:02 AM   #640
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Spieth is amazing. Starts with a triple bogey and just hit 5 birdies in a row.
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Old 06-18-2020, 11:46 AM   #641
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

what a way to lose

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Old 06-18-2020, 01:08 PM   #642
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

matsuyama tee shot into the rough
bogeys 1

we done
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Old 06-18-2020, 01:14 PM   #643
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

English and Fitzpatrick going well though.

Does anyone play in this group?
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Old 06-18-2020, 01:15 PM   #644
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

fitzpatrick is always money. guy is super underrated

matsuyama second tee shot into the trees lol
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Old 06-18-2020, 01:50 PM   #645
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

wow rahm nailed a 33 foot birdie

where was this putting last week

this week matsuyama is missing all the 10 foot birdies
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Old 06-18-2020, 01:51 PM   #646
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rahm making a putt wow wii
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Old 06-18-2020, 02:08 PM   #647
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

matsuyama lipping an eagle of course. watch him blow this easy birdie
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Old 06-18-2020, 02:13 PM   #648
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rose under the beer cart
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Old 06-18-2020, 02:53 PM   #649
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol hideki had an in and out on a 5 foot putt. only thing good for our r1 bets is woodland is doing worse and horschel is tied
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Old 06-18-2020, 05:13 PM   #650
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Shot 6 in the hole
Shot 5 putt 2 ft 10 in., 12 in. to hole
Shot 4 putt 11 ft 6 in., 18 in. to hole
Shot 3 76 ft 0 in. to green, 10 ft 1 in. to hole
Shot 2 83 yds to left rough, 86 ft 0 in. to hole
Shot 1 291 yds to native area, 111 yds to hole

hideki on a par 4. RIP everything
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