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Old 06-16-2020, 11:06 AM   #601
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

DK sportsbook has them 40/1. Need to get an account there. With odds boosters they'll probably make him 4 million to 1
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:56 AM   #602
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
That Matsuyama line really moved against us.

Adding some to Hideki Matsuyama +3870 0.32u

Rahm down to 14/1 at least
Yeah I didnít get that. A course where his awful putting is negated, and scrambling and elite iron/wedge play reign supreme should be right up his ally. I thought his odds would get smashed. Instead the surprise opposite happened.
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Old 06-16-2020, 12:09 PM   #603
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I bet him 30/1+ too. His match-up vs Woodland is the only one red circled at BOL but he is also -150/125 so doubt we getting got on weird info. Deki going to unite the clans imo.
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Old 06-16-2020, 01:25 PM   #604
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

for a couple hours bookmaker had spieth with lower odds than matsuyaka

the same spieth that had horrible approaches all day and gained about 8 strokes from putting

on a course where putting doesn't matter

if youre looking for dfs value luke donald kills with the wedge and should be great here

our boy Sabbatini has done great here too.

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Old 06-16-2020, 04:01 PM   #605
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I usually avoid golf props because the limits are horrible, but post covid and without opening strikeout props we need to take any value we can find.

Winning Margin: Exactly 1 Shot +260. Good to +230 or so.
Non USA Winner +175. Good to +134
Webb Simpson Top American +1800 (~+1390)
Hearn +800 Top Canadian (+712)
Sloan +1200 Top Canadian (+1044)

unit size on these is 1/20th of h2h so scale accordingly
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:34 PM   #606
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Initial Cash Game Thoughts (which I expect to be chalky, but I haven't looked anywhere yet)
Rory (11.3), Webb (9), Ty Hatton (8), Sneds (7.5), Hadwin (7.3), Harry Higgs (6.9 nice)

The 1st 5 guys need no explanation.

Higgs birdies a ton of Par 4 (20.45%).
Harbor Town is a par 71 and only 3 par 5s, there's an extra par 4.
That, plus his relatively low bogey rate (13.74%)
His relatively good scrambling (64.04%), despite his negative SG-ARG (-0.025).
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:18 PM   #607
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

BM added their lines. Most are copying Pinnacle, but they have some new ones. 10k opening limits are back too!

Here's what I took

Tournament Matchup - RBC - Kevin Kisner -104 - (Jason Kokrak vrs Kevin Kisner) RISK: 0.32u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Scottie Scheffler +109 - (Matthew Fitzpatrick vrs Scottie Scheffler) RISK 2u ***
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Abraham Ancer -102 - (Tony Finau vrs Abraham Ancer) RISK: 0.45u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Tyrrell Hatton +100 - (Rickie Fowler vrs Tyrrell Hatton) RISK: 2u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Branden Grace +147 - (Gary Woodland vrs Branden Grace) RISK: 0.51u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Daniel Berger +113 - (Dustin Johnson vrs Daniel Berger) RISK: 0.56u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Hideki Matsuyama -113 - (Hideki Matsuyama vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 2.26u ***
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Justin Thomas -115 - (Justin Thomas vrs Xander Schauffele) RISK: 0.7u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Jon Rahm -122 - (Bryson Dechambeau vrs Jon Rahm) RISK: 1.76u
Tournament Matchup - RBC - Jon Rahm +101 - (Rory McIlroy vrs Jon Rahm) RISK: 0.77u

*** Note on these two. I max bet both of these 3x and I still think it has value at those odds. We could be completely off here but I have fair for both at:

Scheffler -113.22 over Fitzpatrick
Matsuyama -163.85 over Rose

So either Bookmaker is really bad here or we are missing something. Risk adverse? I'd avoid. I really think these are ridiculous lines and curious if anyone else has them as major value. They also opened that Matsuyama over Woodland line at -106. The one that we bet at -147 and is currently -150 at most places. I don't know what they are doing. Do they have underground Hideki Matsuyama knowledge we lack? What worries me too is a lot of our earlier bigger bets they opened 20-30 cents worse and more in line with my projections.

BM got Matsuyama back down to 27/1 to win the tournament though!

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 06-16-2020 at 11:24 PM.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:32 PM   #608
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Scheffler w/d'd this AM so that could be why that ones not moving

Mats line has been moving towards GARY at my off-screens and I guess BOL too, maybe Hideki just flew in from Japan yesterday and is jet-lagged out his mind? He doesn't have a tweeter and hasn't posted on the Gram in 2 months, nto sure where else to look. Anyone got PJ tail numbers we can track?
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:37 PM   #609
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Whoops, need to step up our PGA injury tracking. I knew Na withdrew, but not Scheffler. That's actually good, was making DK lines and had a lot of Scheffler. jablo bringing the knowledge, thanks!
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:53 PM   #610
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Also if people are looking at this wondering: What, didn't you fade Webb Simpson in everything last week and didn't he do horrible? Why are you on him this week?

Wedge play. This course rewards good wedge play and he's one of the best at it. Graeme McDowell and Luke Donald are other really good at using the wedge. Luke Donald always seems to randomly get top 5 here. This course also rewards just straight forward golf play. Kuchar is one of those type of golfers. If you buy into course history I'd put a lot of those people in your tournament lineups.

If you don't believe in course history then I wouldn't bet on any Webb or Kuchar.

For DFS I actually think Luke Donald is going to be decently owned. People know about him. But Graeme McDowell could be a sleeper in the big tournament.

Dustin Johnson used to dominate this place. I remember one tournament a couple years ago he was +375 to win after the masters and went HAM. But now he's 2020 DJ.
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:11 AM   #611
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I just took Donald top Englishman +1000
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:17 AM   #612
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I have that fair as +1922 only because of Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Rose, and Poulter.

Too many good Englishmen. But I'm also assuming he would play normal and not out of this world luke donald like he tends to do here.
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:46 AM   #613
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

hah, yeah that's a miss on my part. Thanks for lmk before I put more money in, small bet.

I get the green light and I am going HAM.
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:47 AM   #614
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i also got Matsuyama -111 vs Horschel (-119 lol) for round one
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Old 06-17-2020, 01:08 AM   #615
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

cody it could be good, who knows. those things are hard to predict.

That is a good R1 match, took that and these

RBC Heritage R1 Bets

Justin Thomas - Jon Rahm - Match-ups - Jon Rahm Odds: +103 RISK: 0.66u
Hideki Matsuyama - Gary Woodland - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -119 RISK: 1.4u
Patrick Reed - Daniel Berger - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -120 RISK: 0.3u
Jordan Spieth - Kevin Kisner - Match-ups - Kevin Kisner Odds: -106 RISK: 0.95u
Luke List - Vaughn Taylor - Match-ups - Vaughn Taylor Odds: -106 RISK: 1.43u
Byeong-Hun An - Harris English - Match-ups - Harris English Odds: +105 RISK: 0.4u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Joel Dahmen -115 - (Bubba Watson vrs Joel Dahmen) RISK: 0.87u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Hideki Matsuyama -111 - (Billy Horschel vrs Hideki Matsuyama) RISK: 1.96u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Matt Kuchar -116 - (Matt Kuchar vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 0.27u
Round 1 Matchup - RBC - Sungjae Im -114 - (Sungjae Im vrs Gary Woodland) RISK: 1.14u

Matsuyama gonna bankrupt us this week

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Old 06-17-2020, 01:26 AM   #616
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

he bankrupts me most weeks, my model nearly always has him in the top 10 and often top 5 and dfs pricing often just outside that range

many weeks i go 100% him, may be another one this week
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Old 06-17-2020, 01:35 AM   #617
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I went through and checked my big Matsuyama bets this year

API -196 Round 3 (? didn't list round) over Graeme McDowell $-13833
Genesis invitational Round 2, -120 over Kuchar -$9700
Matsuyama > Scott for API whole tournmament +$13685

so hopefully it events out after this event. even if i remove course history bias from his projections those bets still have value. I run two sets every week. With and without bias and I can just toggle them on and off.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:50 AM   #618
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was huge on Deki and Webb for The Players this year. I really think I would've earned a ton that week had it not been canceled.

Running 500 sims this week. Not sure why, but 100 didn't seem like enough. I should be done by lunchtime. I'll post some when I'm done. For half of them, I ramped up the double bogey percentage, since those are lurking everywhere with the water and overhanging trees.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:58 AM   #619
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

haven't run my model yet but right now my yahoo dummy cash line is matsuyama/zach johnson/sabbatini/glover/rahm/simpson - feels pretty solid going one tier lower and a bunch of solid guys
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Old 06-17-2020, 11:22 AM   #620
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Haven't dug in yet, but I'm seeing a few things that jump out at me.

Made Cut Pct
Rose: 45%
Spieth: 43.6%
Koepka: 34.4%
Fitzpatrick: 38.2%

Rory: 82.8%
Webb: 82.4%
Hatton: 78.0%
Woodland: 73%
Cam Smith: 62.2%
McNealy: 65.4%
Higgs: 64.4%
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Old 06-17-2020, 11:39 AM   #621
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

woah... what i hate about results like this is I can never tell if I'm stumbled upon something or made too many false assumptions - some real interesting numbers to say the least
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:17 PM   #622
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
Haven't dug in yet, but I'm seeing a few things that jump out at me.

Made Cut Pct
Rose: 45%
Spieth: 43.6%
Koepka: 34.4%
Fitzpatrick: 38.2%

Rory: 82.8%
Webb: 82.4%
Hatton: 78.0%
Woodland: 73%
Cam Smith: 62.2%
McNealy: 65.4%
Higgs: 64.4%
I'm curious what your thoughts are on why BK is projected so low to make the cut?

Also thinking the same about Fitz it we are giving any credibility to course fit here with accuracy likely carrying more of a premium than most venues?
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:32 PM   #623
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i have koepka much higher

60.7%

and fitz way higher. 68.1%. i'm always high on fitzpatrick tho. i think i've used him in cash on either FD or DK every slate this year.
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:38 PM   #624
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Think my streak of max entering and 0% cashing the million maker is going to end this week. Even with a willingness to go 100% on the 2-3 lower priced guys I think are undervalued/low ownership, it's just really tough to make unique lineups that don't suck this week. Woodland at $8,400? GMAFB
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Old 06-17-2020, 12:39 PM   #625
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i'm down to 2 options

Simpson/Matsuyama/Kuchar/Fitzpatrick/Horschel/Hovland

or

Simpson/Reed/Kuchar/Fitzpatrick/Hoschel/Hatton

basically Matsuyama/Hovland vs. Reed/Hatton

Already so heavy on Mat with betting that maybe it would be good to diversify, but also we could hit the jackpot on everything if he goes crazy.

I already default entered 100 lineups so too much work to click withdraw on those. I know I'm going to lose almost all my money especially with 44% to first, so am I being smart by only doing 100 instead of 150?

My ROI on milly makers historically is -62% across NFL, MMA, and Golf. Basically just throwing money in the garbage. That even includes getting 3rd in a NFL one for like 25k. The only time I really came close was the $1500 entry one. I swapped my D the morning of and it cost me 1st.

I went to register for all the good single entry tournaments ($777 bev cart, $200) but they were all filled already.
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