We missed our opportunity. Varner down to +132 now. I still think that has value. I have him 41.9% to win, 10.1% to tie. So about +110 as fair.

Korn Ferry went 1-2 -1.4u

Round 3:

Smotherman > Hopfinger -105
Diaz > Saunders -120

Pretty sure it was a 4th round blow-up when Adam Scott won. I had him in dfs that weekend and went from first for 200k to losing after. Need him to hold & Spieth to fall a little to win FD this week

Wow Bookmaker opened the Varner vs. Spieth line as Varner -117 favorite. We really screwed up there by not taking him +155.

It is currently Varner +115 at BM and Pinnacle. All their other match-ups were just same as Pinnacle. Did the bookmaker golf handicapper get fired?

We are looking pretty good. Crushing all the lines with big bets. Incoming 6-6-1 lose the juice day.

You must not be paying attention. The fix is in. Bookmaker is well aware. Pinny is the square one here. Plus Spieth sucks now days. This was all made clear when the pga tour blacked out a morning tee time on R1 to show their support for black lives. Varner is winning this if Dechambeau doesn't ignore his sponsor's demands.

I got one 6/6. Not good Bob.

Im, Reed, Oosthuizen, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Poulter

It was the first line if I submitted, before doing any research. LoL Me

Did anyone bet the Redman over Reed and get it cancelled? Mine was cancelled at 12:30am. Not complaining since Redman is getting destroyed but no idea why they would do that.

A bunch of places left that one up after it had started so probably got past posted a bunch and their solution was to void everything instead of taking 5 minutes to figure out which wagers were legit.

Praise sportsbooks for their poor choices. Looks like this book has weird timing so 12:30am would be after it started.

morikawa implosion

conners gonna lose because watson chips in a 90 footer from a bunker

what a day

lol furyk had 3 stroke lead going into 16th

he double bogeys and kisner birdies. and now they're tied

champ birdies 17 to push kokrak

we should have quit yesterday for real

Bryson DeChambeau - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: +121 RISK: 1.8u WIN +2.2
Rory McIlroy - Xander Schauffele - Match-ups - Xander Schauffele Odds: +127 RISK: 0.4u WIN +0.51
Bubba Watson - Corey Conners - Match-ups - Corey Conners Odds: +105 RISK: 2u WIN +2.1
Brian Harman - Peter Uihlein - Match-ups - Brian Harman Odds: -167 RISK: 0.24u LOSS -0.24u
Abraham Ancer - JT Poston - Match-ups - JT Poston Odds: +121 RISK: 0.2u LOSS -0.2u
Kevin Kisner - Jim Furyk - Match-ups - Jim Furyk Odds: +105 RISK: 0.74u WIN +0.78
Ian Poulter - Matthew Wolff - Match-ups - Ian Poulter Odds: -108 RISK: 0.3u WIN +0.28u
Tony Finau - Joaquin Niemann - Match-ups - Joaquin Niemann Odds: +121 RISK: 0.2u LOSS -0.2u
Patrick Reed - Doc Redman - Match-ups - Doc Redman Odds: +181 RISK: 0.28u (it got cancelled for a lot of people but will keep as a loss) LOSS -0.28u
Jason Kokrak - Cameron Champ - Match-ups - Jason Kokrak Odds: -116 RISK: 0.48u PUSH (how?)
Zach Johnson - Denny McCarthy - Match-ups - Zach Johnson Odds: -105 RISK: 0.4u WIN +0.38
Byeong-Hun An - Bronson Burgoon - Match-ups - Bronson Burgoon Odds: +137 RISK: 0.13u LOSS -0.13 (blew it at the end)
Alex Noren - Jhonattan Vegas - Match-ups - Jhonattan Vegas Odds: +110 RISK: 1u LOSS -1
Keith Mitchell - Brian Stuard - Match-ups - Brian Stuard Odds: +110 RISK: 0.95u LOSS -0.95u
6-7-1 +3.25u

Korn Ferry 1-0-1 +1u

Schauffele is in 1st going into day 4 and we got him at 16/1. Might hedge out considering this is a 8.1k bet. Or should we be men and ride it out? I'll do whatever you want.

And we got lucky by fading Varner value. Ran good today.

I picked up some Schauffele at 16-1, riding out like a boss?

Good enough for me. Lets do it. I have him 25.1% to win. Thomas 16.9% (we got him at 5/1 for 5k) and Morikawa (11/1 for 3k) at 12.6%.

We got all three. Crazy how that happens. About 54% to cash big.

Not a great dfs golf day for me. Back to 150th in the FD tourney and still live but need Spieth to fail and rest of leaderboard to look similar to yesterday. Rory/Morikawa/Ancer/Bryson/Conners/Varner

On DK I have a unique in ~1800th and somehow has a chance to get 6/6 under 70 bonus, but still need basically everyone else to blow up. ~600 of the entries above don't have 6/6 through at least though.
JT/Schauffele/Scheffeler/Sabbatini/Furyk/Conners

Korn Ferry R4:

Roberto Diaz > Sam Saunders -115
Smotherman > Hopfinger -110
Barjon > Stanger -115
DeMorat > Gainey -110 (I have this as a really small edge. If you're not max betting on these massive $250 limits I would adjust accordingly).

Some scumbag books (e.g., ultrabet) graded the Redman bet as a loss after cancelling it. Wonder if they'd grade it as a winner if he won?

Does anyone see any value un the following (all to win):
Patrick Reed: +2800
Corey Conners: +6600
J.T. Poston: +17500

Reed three off the lead, shot a 63 today could be getting hot.

Other two highly unlikely but Conners three off the lead at 1.5% implied and Poston 4 off the lead at less than 1% implied.

I don't bet golf often but I feel like on Sunday anything can happen... Obivously micro bet size on Poston/Connors

i have

reed +3516
conners +7113
poston +20913

so i wouldn't bet them, but they're close.

Welp looks like no one is posting R4. Pinnacle loaded up 10 match-ups but then took them down before posting a line. Sportsbook complain about having nothing for their customers to bet on but then can't even post lines.

Guess I'll set my alarm for 5am to check and post anything. What a life.

I'm liking that Xander has been bet down to +300. Going to make the non fading decision even better.

Bookmaker just posted lines 9 minutes ago!

R4

Round 4 Matchup - Charles Schwab - Rory Sabbatini +126 - (Rory Sabbatini vrs Brooks Koepka) RISK: 1.01u
Round 4 Matchup - Charles Schwab - Corey Conners +113 - (Corey Conners vrs Justin Rose) RISK: 1.02u
Round 4 Matchup - Charles Schwab - Xander Schauffele -111 - (Xander Schauffele vrs Gary Woodland) RISK: 2.06u

Maybe others will start posting their lines

and new non BM lines.

Matthew Wolff - Pat Perez - Match-ups - Pat Perez Odds: +110 RISK: 1.28u
Bubba Watson - Charles Howell III - Match-ups - Charles Howell III Odds: +104 RISK:0.63u
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Bud Cauley - Match-ups - Bud Cauley Odds: +128 RISK: 0.46u
Joaquin Niemann - Keith Mitchell - Match-ups - Keith Mitchell Odds: +124 RISK: 0.92u
Scott Piercy - Jhonattan Vegas - Match-ups - Jhonattan Vegas Odds: +104 RISK: 0.09u

We did it

How is DK sportsbook actually still liquid? They have Morikawa -111 vs. Spieth (for comparison BM has -175, I have fair as -148).

That Conners bet I made is +128 there
Howell +116
Sabbatini +150 (!!)

Must be nice to be able to offer such horrible lines and have your stock go through the roof

Couple more:

Maverick McNealy +138 over Finau RISK: 0.46u
Mark Hubbard +185 over Sungjae Im RISK: 0.92u

Lots of the euro sites have Spieth even slightly favored over Morikawa. Bet365 for example has spieth at +100 and Morikawa +110 (3 way line obviously). Betfair with its huge liquidity has Spieth at 8/1 to win the tourney vs Morikawa at 9/1 (which isn't the same as H2H matchup, since Spieth almost surely has a wider range of outcomes). The market clearly really likes Spieth this week a lot, assuming that he's almost back to prime form.

One more:
Harry Higgs +130 over Oosthuizen RISK: 0.67u

Crushing lines

Sabbatini closed at +105
Schaufflele -132
Perez +100
Howell -107
Cauley -103
Mitchell +107
McNealy +125
Hubbard +159

That's why it's important to spend your entire Saturday night sitting in front of the computer waiting for lines to post instead of having a normal life.

Close one between Perez and Wolff and then Wolff puts it in the water on 18. Run good today.