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Old 06-11-2020, 04:06 PM   #526
critiakx2
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post

you including any randomizations for covid rust?
Would be interested to hear Rsigs approach on the layoff. I time-weight the rounds, so if your most recent round was 3mo ago it would carry less weight than if it were yesterday. Basically my projections were mostly long-term form with a bit more mean regression than normal due to no recent data. Course favors approach/around the green play and I don't think the covid layoff impacts that at all. Maybe makes it more important with no fans to block errant shots/point out lost balls but I didn't make any adjustment based on this.

Heard noise from tout twitter about adjusting based on practice schedule/recent comments/show matches played but I have no idea how to approach that without throwing darts.
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Old 06-11-2020, 04:17 PM   #527
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Would be interested to hear Rsigs approach on the layoff. I time-weight the rounds, so if your most recent round was 3mo ago it would carry less weight than if it were yesterday. Basically my projections were mostly long-term form with a bit more mean regression than normal due to no recent data. Course favors approach/around the green play and I don't think the covid layoff impacts that at all. Maybe makes it more important with no fans to block errant shots/point out lost balls but I didn't make any adjustment based on this.

Heard noise from tout twitter about adjusting based on practice schedule/recent comments/show matches played but I have no idea how to approach that without throwing darts.
yeah like an idiot i ran all my scrapers only to get back identical results and just felt like an idiot... oh yeah, no golf had been played since last time i ran these
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Old 06-11-2020, 04:54 PM   #528
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lol my call on Varner is getting real. Watch the field fold on purpose over the weekend.
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Old 06-11-2020, 05:44 PM   #529
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Lol my call on Varner is getting real. Watch the field fold on purpose over the weekend.
I threw him in a couple, just in case.

Air 5!!!
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Old 06-11-2020, 06:22 PM   #530
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Didn't play Varner this week sadly. Had a ~$200k swing when he blew up on the back 9 Sunday at the Genesis earlier this year

edit- looks like I played him on FD actually! Currently in 60th in their $7 contest that didn't fill with Rory as weakest performer in lineup.
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:02 PM   #531
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i didn't make any adjustments for covid. i should have followed the Rahm hair narrative tho

his putting was horrible today. Luckily everyone went with the Simpson/Finau stack.

All our low owned punts are killing and so is JT tho. Got some shots. Just gotta wait for Varner to blow up as usual. No Rose is bad.
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Old 06-11-2020, 08:10 PM   #532
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I saw this bet and looks good

Justin Thomas +525 to win for 0.3u

I have fair as ~+462

I was worried with my Fitz/English vs. Kuchar/An decision. Had Fitz slightly better so went with Fitz/English.

After R1 Fitz combo scored 32.5 vs 32 for the other. Only benefit is Fitz is way lower owned in cash. If he didn't have that double bogey then bogey meltdown, -5 would be nice. Only fails if Kuchar makes the cut and English doesnt.
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Old 06-11-2020, 09:45 PM   #533
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

R2 Charles Schwab Bets:

Talor Gooch - Jazz Janewattananond - Match-ups - Jazz Janewattananond Odds: +125 RISK: 1.13u
Billy Horschel - Danny Willett - Match-ups - Danny Willett Odds: +126 RISK: 0.32u
Collin Morikawa - Bubba Watson - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: -136 RISK: 2.58u
Justin Thomas - Jordan Spieth - Match-ups - Justin Thomas Odds: -172 RISK: 0.91u
Scott Piercy - C T Pan - Match-ups - C T Pan Odds: +133 RISK: 1.38u
Viktor Hovland - Jason Dufner - Match-ups - Viktor Hovland Odds: -132 RISK: 2.64u
Bryson DeChambeau - Justin Rose - Match-ups - Bryson DeChambeau Odds: -123 RISK: 0.5u
Chez Reavie - Pat Perez - Match-ups - Pat Perez Odds: +118 RISK: 1.17u
Patrick Reed - Marc Leishman - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -108 RISK: 0.75u
Rafael Cabrera Bello - Adam Schenk - Match-ups - Adam Schenk Odds: +116 RISK: 1.54u
Chris Kirk - Scott Brown - Match-ups - Scott Brown Odds: +130 RISK: 0.58u
Sergio Garcia - Sebastian Munoz - Match-ups - Sebastian Munoz Odds: +112 RISK: 1.05u
Jason Day - Keegan Bradley - Match-ups - Jason Day Odds: -123 RISK: 2.33u

A lot out there for R2.

I have a book that has Korn Ferry lines too. The limits are only $250 with -120 on each side but here's what I bet if you can get it elsewhere. These are for Round 2 also.

Ted Potter Jr > Saunders -120
Michael Thompson > Robert Streb -110
TJ Vogel > KK Limbhaset -120

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 06-11-2020 at 09:59 PM.
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Old 06-11-2020, 10:02 PM   #534
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I just saw KK kill if on the Outlaw Tour for 6 weeks. Dudes ready to go.

I remember Michael Thompson. He had a good Fall Swing (circa 2017) IIRC.
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Old 06-11-2020, 10:08 PM   #535
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

KK did pretty good today too. -3

Vogel had 6 bogeys and 1 birdie.

Maybe I should have paid more attention to the data instead of clicking buttons. Praise low limits.
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Old 06-11-2020, 10:24 PM   #536
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

2 more to win w/value IMO

Charles Schwab Challenge - Collin Morikawa +1100 RISK: 0.3u
Charles Schwab Challenge - Xander Schauffele +1600 RISK: 0.81u
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Old 06-12-2020, 08:49 AM   #537
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Classic Varner. Tripe bogeys his first hole, the tenth, which is only the 9th most difficult hole. And he’s on the morning wave which did half a stroke better yesterday
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Old 06-12-2020, 09:05 AM   #538
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Wow we crushed those R2 lines. Good job everybody.

Jazz closed +111
Willett +114
Morikawa -196
Day -141
Munoz +112
Schenk -108
Reed -121
Hovland -154

rest didn't move or stayed close to the same. Lines from Pinnacle
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Old 06-12-2020, 10:27 AM   #539
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I wonder if these exists a parallel universe where Jon Rahm could make one or two less than ten foot birdie putts.

If he even made half of them he would be -6
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:42 AM   #540
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

rahm just missed a 2 foot putt

good game everybody

**** gambling. time to retire and do something meaningful with my life aka sit at home and watch movies and tv all day and get fat. good run. end of a 16 year legacy.
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:57 AM   #541
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Chalk Spieth is on fire of course
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Old 06-12-2020, 02:18 PM   #542
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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rahm just missed a 2 foot putt

good game everybody

**** gambling. time to retire and do something meaningful with my life aka sit at home and watch movies and tv all day and get fat. good run. end of a 16 year legacy.
Rsigs, you’re thinking too much. You might have missed the pre tourney bet but just load up on Varner to win tonight and forget the stress of the matchups. There’s no way any sponsor like Nike is letting Rory, or Under Armour with Spieth win this with the racial climate going on. The weekend field taking a massive dive swings into full effect tomorrow.
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Old 06-12-2020, 07:04 PM   #543
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Talor Gooch - Jazz Janewattananond - Match-ups - Jazz Janewattananond Odds: +125 RISK: 1.13u WIN +1.41
Billy Horschel - Danny Willett - Match-ups - Danny Willett Odds: +126 RISK: 0.32u LOSS -0.32U
Collin Morikawa - Bubba Watson - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: -136 RISK: 2.58u LOSS -2.58U
Justin Thomas - Jordan Spieth - Match-ups - Justin Thomas Odds: -172 RISK: 0.91u LOSS -0.91U
Scott Piercy - C T Pan - Match-ups - C T Pan Odds: +133 RISK: 1.38u WIN +1.84
Viktor Hovland - Jason Dufner - Match-ups - Viktor Hovland Odds: -132 RISK: 2.64u WIN +2
Bryson DeChambeau - Justin Rose - Match-ups - Bryson DeChambeau Odds: -123 RISK: 0.5u WIN +0.41
Chez Reavie - Pat Perez - Match-ups - Pat Perez Odds: +118 RISK: 1.17u WIN +1.38
Patrick Reed - Marc Leishman - Match-ups - Patrick Reed Odds: -108 RISK: 0.75u WIN +0.69U
Rafael Cabrera Bello - Adam Schenk - Match-ups - Adam Schenk Odds: +116 RISK: 1.54u LOSS -1.54
Chris Kirk - Scott Brown - Match-ups - Scott Brown Odds: +130 RISK: 0.58u LOSS -0.58
Sergio Garcia - Sebastian Munoz - Match-ups - Sebastian Munoz Odds: +112 RISK: 1.05u PUSH
Jason Day - Keegan Bradley - Match-ups - Jason Day Odds: -123 RISK: 2.33u Loss -2.33u
6-6-1 -0.53u

Roughest day in history. At least we picked up 3 W and 1 L in the full tournament match ups. Three W's were +145, -120, +130 too. Jon Rahm legit missed 11 putts 10 feet or less.

I need to stop paying attention to sports. It was much better for me when I would just place bets, go about my life, check results in the morning, repeat. DFS has ruined my enjoyment of life. Once real sports come back I'm going to quit it. The problem is for some sports the betting limits are so low you can't make money, but you can make tons in fantasy. I don't even care about the extra DFS golf income, we make enough just betting h2h's and to wins. Why is firing 100k easily on a weekend golf slate not enough. And then ruin my life by firing 10k into dfs. It's not worth it mentally.
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Old 06-12-2020, 07:30 PM   #544
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

One positive: It looks like we are getting 16/100 lineups thru with 6/6 golfers. And about 50 with 5/6. If V Taylor made it that would have been another 15 lineups with 6/6.

Our fade the chalk strat worked there. Now just have to see how many total 6/6 there are and need tons of luck.

need to root for Thomas/Schauffele or Thomas/Morikawa but personally I hope this line up wins

with 6.5% oosthuizen, 2.4% poston, 0.7% glover, 0.5% jones. with mcillroy/koepka
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Old 06-12-2020, 10:01 PM   #545
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I got 0 of 150 through with 6. Makes me miss the days when 500 max entries was allowed. At least there is another millionaire maker next week.
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Old 06-12-2020, 10:16 PM   #546
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Mental side of DFS is tough. Rake and variance is insanely high. Not looking good on DK but currently 4th in the $7 on FD w/ $100k up top. Everyone above me has Spieth and I have Rory which is good, but need Varner to hold the win which is unlikely.
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:13 PM   #547
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

It’s over. Bookmaker always has odds to win lines up after r2. Nothing exists tonight and there’s no sports. You’d figure they would love bets on a sport. Phil Knight has called on behalf of Nike to declare that they’re gonna have all people in contention lose. Under Armour has relayed the same to Spieth. I have Dechambeau as well so maybe Puma tells him it’s just not the tourney for his new 345+ yard driving average (love my masters bet at the moment). Harold Varner is like a hilarious joke that is probably gonna happen.
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:25 PM   #548
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You can’t tell me that the ‘19 Masters wasn’t rigged with everyone rinsing their balls on 12 in the last two groups. Molinari (Nike), Finau (Nike), Koepka (Nike), Poulter (lol)
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:47 PM   #549
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

My parser doesn't know how to calculate cut lines apparently. Only have 3 with 6/6. It thought English made the cut. Probably hard to win without Spieth or Varner anyway.

Varner is still 11/1 to win. I really thought he was going to miss the cut after that triple bogey but somehow he pulled it together. Remember pre-covid, think it was the Genesis Invitation, where he was leading after 10 holes in the third then double bogey, bogey, and missed a 3 foot putt to finish 14th or so. Only time I bet on him to win.

Pinnacle just posted R3, so just waiting for everyone to copy them.
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:34 AM   #550
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

R3 Bets: Bet is to the right of Match-ups. Left is the match-up.

Bryson DeChambeau - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: +121 RISK: 1.8u
Rory McIlroy - Xander Schauffele - Match-ups - Xander Schauffele Odds: +127 RISK: 0.4u
Bubba Watson - Corey Conners - Match-ups - Corey Conners Odds: +105 RISK: 2u
Brian Harman - Peter Uihlein - Match-ups - Brian Harman Odds: -167 RISK: 0.24u
Abraham Ancer - JT Poston - Match-ups - JT Poston Odds: +121 RISK: 0.2u
Kevin Kisner - Jim Furyk - Match-ups - Jim Furyk Odds: +105 RISK: 0.74u
Ian Poulter - Matthew Wolff - Match-ups - Ian Poulter Odds: -108 RISK: 0.3u
Tony Finau - Joaquin Niemann - Match-ups - Joaquin Niemann Odds: +121 RISK: 0.2u
Patrick Reed - Doc Redman - Match-ups - Doc Redman Odds: +181 RISK: 0.28u
Jason Kokrak - Cameron Champ - Match-ups - Jason Kokrak Odds: -116 RISK: 0.48u
Zach Johnson - Denny McCarthy - Match-ups - Zach Johnson Odds: -105 RISK: 0.4u
Byeong-Hun An - Bronson Burgoon - Match-ups - Bronson Burgoon Odds: +137 RISK: 0.13u
Alex Noren - Jhonattan Vegas - Match-ups - Jhonattan Vegas Odds: +110 RISK: 1u
Keith Mitchell - Brian Stuard - Match-ups - Brian Stuard Odds: +110 RISK: 0.95u

There's a Harold Varner III vs. Spieth match-up with Varner +155. Model says that's a max bet but I don't trust either one of them. So instead of tilting lets not bet it and then tilt when Varner wins because he's destined to win.

Bookmaker usually has unique H2H's, but last night they posted around 4am and I fell asleep. Missed two winners. Won't be this weak tonight.
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