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Old 05-19-2020, 08:35 AM   #501
Precept24
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Isn't Kuest an NCAA mini-prodigy? He was solid last week. That's the only bet I think I don't like.



I've been watching Periscope and Twitch feeds and playing on DK.

I like the win the tourney bets. What's Noah Hofman? He's an NAIA prodigy. 3-time All American.
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Old 05-19-2020, 09:46 AM   #502
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i put a buck on hoffman, acr doesn't have each way but it's 4815 odds so if you like him plop a buck on it to move up to the $5 jackpots

(had to move down to the 50 cents and $2 myself since i had a bad run at the 5s)
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:21 PM   #503
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I didn't even know ACR had sports betting. I'll look into it.
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Old 05-19-2020, 04:27 PM   #504
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

it's the top tab to the right, it'll open up in your web browser, super janky and few options but it works

they must be using a skin because you need to transfer funds but that's super easy and instantaneous
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Old 05-19-2020, 06:09 PM   #505
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Nice. Hofman with 6 birdies today, -1 overall. Kuest at -3 well positioned.

I have a Kuest, Hofman, JD Fernandez, Mason, Weworski, and Hudson. I really thought I would be winning more. I'm barely doubling up.
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Old 05-23-2020, 01:48 AM   #506
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

ex MLB pitcher Barry Enright took it down in a three person playoff

Wu -170 over Galletti WIN +1
Yannik Paul -115 over Nick Mason LOSS -1.15
Wheeldon -101 over Peter Kuest PUSH
MacDonald -110 over Yun WIN +1
Dunkle -110 over Korte LOSS -1.1

bring back real golf please
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Old 06-04-2020, 06:05 PM   #507
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Felt good loading up the PGA model after three months.

Here's what I have as fair "to win" odds for the top 50. Because that is all that fit in the screenshot

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Old 06-06-2020, 04:22 PM   #508
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

We back. Bookmaker posted h2h and they're confident enough with 10k limits. Time to get back to losing $$. We were killing it before stoppage so bound to lose big.

Full tournament matchups (risk amounts):
Koepka > Webb Simpson +145 RISK: 1.2u
Schauffele > SungJae Im -110 RISK: 1.06u
Poulter > Niemann +120 RISK: 0.57u
Hovland > Na -120 RISK: 1.5u
Watson > Knox +130 RISK: 1.25u
Day > Oosthuizen -105 RISK: 2.1u
Dahmen > Kisner +100 RISK: 1.2u

Lets get 'em
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Old 06-07-2020, 07:46 AM   #509
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

do you use kelly or something else to determine units to bet?
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Old 06-07-2020, 09:26 AM   #510
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yep and sportsbook limits

for golf i use 5k as 1 unit, so the Day bet was just a max bet at bookmaker. Wanted to bet more but then it moved so wasn't as much value anymore
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Old 06-08-2020, 05:33 PM   #511
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I just went pretty big on Rahm, including

Rahm>Garcia and Bello (-250)
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Old 06-08-2020, 07:01 PM   #512
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I did a bunch of data work this week. If I can't sleep tonight, I'll put some thoughts out there.

Is it Corey Conners' week?

More coming.
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Old 06-08-2020, 08:25 PM   #513
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Gotta get creative off the layoff. All sponsors like Nike, Under Armour, Titliest, Callaway will have the golfers take a dive under the current climate so that a black man wins and brings peace to the country. Harold Varner it is this week.
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Old 06-09-2020, 08:55 AM   #514
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Guys Who Grade Out Well for me in DK Pricing

9.5K+: Webb is similar to JT and Rory, but cheaper

8-9.4K: Morikawa, Woodland, Scheffler

7-7.9K: English, Berger, Niemann, McNealy, Hadwin, Knox, Conners, Furyk, Charley Hoffman (Palmer and Hoge are close)

6-6.9K: Watney, Nesmith, Long, Kang, Vegas, Hadley (Landry, Schenk, Ortiz, Burgoon, and Taylor are close)
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Old 06-09-2020, 12:04 PM   #515
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I like to focus on making cut % for cash, so probably going Rahm/Scheffler/Horschel/Ancer and then either Fitzpatrick/English or Kuchar/Hun An

Tournaments we obviously want leverage on the field. Especially when there's 180k entrants and 1 mil up top. For that I like to produce graphs of Top 5% vs. predicted ownership for the pricey guys and Top 20% vs. predicted ownership for everyone else.



This is an example graph. Looks like there might be some value on taking Justin Thomas and Rahm as your top 2. Definitely a fade or low ownership on Webb (for reasons above about how he's cheaper). Webb is probably a good cash play, but if he crashes we are sitting real good.

Here's the other graph links (didn't want to embed and take up the whole page)

Between 8 and 9k

https://i.imgur.com/VJ9O5z4.png

Fitzpatrick and Leishman look good.

Between 7 and 8k.

https://i.imgur.com/yW39BTn.png

Getting a little messy, but our boy Sabbatini shows up again. Brian Harman is another favorite. Betancourt, Furyk

6.5 and 7k

https://i.imgur.com/eI10BEM.png

Again another mess of names, but Willett and Victor Perez stand out for me. Vegas, Glover, and all those other names in that jumble too.

< 6.5k

This is a mess so I'm just going to focus on the people who have 8% or greater chance of being in the top 20. The reason is, all these guys are basically gonna be under owned because they're bad and punting on a guy who has a 1% chance of top 20 is stupid.

https://i.imgur.com/ajCouxd.png

Garnett and Landry look good. Stuard too.

For these lower values you might want to also look at some cut % you have since if you want to win the million getting 6/6 through is needed.

I set cut% >= 50 and salary <= 7k to produce this

https://i.imgur.com/xHmjnAk.png

Lot of similar names, but Bud Cauley seems like an interesting choice. High cut percentage, low ownership. Another useful one for your "dominator" could be Win% vs. ownership. It looks similar to the top 5%



I do a lot more analysis, but this is a good place to start. I use my own cut, top 5, top 20, etc. % and ownership from a couple of places that in the past have had good results.

It's likely we are going to lose money in the millionaire, but it's about setting ourselves up for a chance at a unique lineup with a non 0% chance to actually win.
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Old 06-09-2020, 12:30 PM   #516
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

really love it when you explain some of your process as it shows me new ways to tackling the problem

you including any randomizations for covid rust?

was thinking of basically full fade of dfs until things nonrmalize a bit but seeing all the overlay and it's very tempting to yolo it up and crank out the heat

wasn't even planning on doing any work for this one either, thinking i'll be spending a lot of tomorrow running the model now
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Old 06-10-2020, 12:41 PM   #517
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

So 4 months of no golf betting has cash burning a hole in my pocket, time to spew some away! Don't think I'll be taking it too seriously anymore, or betting every week, but thought I'd post the picks for the run good.

Almost 5 full minutes of thought went into these picks, so make sure to get the bankrolls on them.

Hovland @ 61.0 (20% 1-9) 0.65 units
Na @ 51.0 (20% 1-9) 0.65 units
Palmer @ 67.0 (20% 1-9) 0.25 units
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:24 PM   #518
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

whats the best site for getting ownership % for DFS golf?
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Old 06-11-2020, 08:36 AM   #519
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Crazy ownership in the DK milly maker. 20% Finau and Spieth are second highest owned to 25% Webb. I have 3% Finau 0% Spieth. Only a couple lineups duped (and only 3x at that) but mostly 1v1 with punt plays that need to hit the nuts. There's 30k duped entries (+500 blanks) for ~20% of the field.
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Old 06-11-2020, 09:00 AM   #520
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I jumped into the $5 Single Entry this week for Lulz. Webb being 30%, Harris English at 24%, Berger at 14%, and Sungjae at 18.5% don't surprise me.

Woodland at 15% seems low. Watney at 0.25% seems kinda low, too. Found my leverage.
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Old 06-11-2020, 09:29 AM   #521
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Topped up Palmer to 0.45 units.

Added:

Im @ 29.0 (20% 1-9) 1.05 units
Mcdowell @ 151.0 (20% 1-9) 0.25 units

Forgot how much fun this is, hard not to yolo a lineup every week.
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Old 06-11-2020, 09:49 AM   #522
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BetBoke View Post
Forgot how much fun this is, hard not to yolo a lineup every week.
A buddy talked me into doing a few Superdraft lineups. One lineup I did is interesting with ownership.

230 Entries

Nick Watney (0.9%...both me) 1.6x
Zach Johnson (0.4%...just me) 1.5x
Matthew NeSmith (3.1%) 1.45x
Charley Hoffman (1.3%) 1.45x
Adam Hadwin (5.7%) 1.4x
Matthew Wolff (2.2%) 1.4x


Another Entry (Had to Kill a Spider)

Nick Watney (0.9%...both me) 1.6x
Johnny Vegas (2.2%) 1.6x
Chesson Hadley (0.4%...just me) 1.6x
Brian Harman (23.3%) 1.6x
Adam Schenk (0.4%...just me) 1.5x
Matthew NeSmith (3.1%) 1.45x

Last edited by Precept24; 06-11-2020 at 09:58 AM.
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Old 06-11-2020, 10:03 AM   #523
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

LOL Me

Justin Rose was 125th in my model for the week and have ZERO exposure to.
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Old 06-11-2020, 12:18 PM   #524
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

all our classics from this thread pre covid - sabbatini, v. taylor, vegas, harman, etc. dominating early.

all super low owned
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Old 06-11-2020, 03:57 PM   #525
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

What are peoples thoughts on X Zhang?

For DK
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