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Old 10-12-2019, 10:55 AM   #26
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Well, that was a profitable moving day. Glad my first post picks did so well!

I hedged on Fitzpatrick at 4.0 when he was still on the front nine. Basically just fading Kitayama for a nice win now.
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Old 10-12-2019, 11:02 AM   #27
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ha I thought I was gonna be the only one who would be betting Macintyre heavy this week. Max popped him twice as soon as the lines came out, and a few more times on Tues. Got about 73k riding on him and a few grand on Fitzpatrick, and another 28.5k on Straka at the Houston Open. Potential 100k weekend. Let’s do this!
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Old 10-12-2019, 12:18 PM   #28
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sick! I love betting on Macintyre. The soul of a 43 year old and the confidence of a 23 year old. He seems like the kind of guy you'd want to get a pint with, too, which is always a plus.

You in for 1.5kish on Macintyre? Do you ever think about laying some of it when you get to this stage or just yolo it all for the potential bink? I have a bit of a bad habbit of tinkering in play towards Sundays and it has cost me a few times, so trying to cut back on that myself.

That's so funny, I skipped the PGA this week, but was considering Sepp, so it seems like we're thinking along the same lines with picks.

GL! You must have had a whale of a time if you watched Macintyre's run this afternoon.
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Old 10-12-2019, 01:22 PM   #29
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

wtf is this lanto guy? one hit wonder hitting the easy tournies or old man coming out of nowhere?
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Old 10-12-2019, 03:08 PM   #30
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I think he just graduated from the Korn-Ferry tour. This is a really no name week
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Old 10-12-2019, 03:30 PM   #31
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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wtf is this lanto guy? one hit wonder hitting the easy tournies or old man coming out of nowhere?
Isn't this his 2nd run on the PGA Tour?
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Old 10-12-2019, 03:31 PM   #32
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yeah I've been ignoring golf past few weeks until there are some more exciting games, saw some overlay and figured with weather i should yolo in a last minute lineup in some stuff and this lanto guy is everywhere
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Old 10-12-2019, 04:06 PM   #33
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah, I think because it's the start of the season and smaller events it's mostly the grinders and the new tour card holders grinding it out. The euro tour events are entering their high season, so it's been really good to follow lately. I only really got into following it closely quite recently, but has been as fun to watch as PGA tour. I really wish their website had a shot tracker like the PGA though.

What do you mean by the weather advantage?
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Old 10-13-2019, 08:52 AM   #34
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Wiesberger 10 under through the last 19 holes. I always want to have him EW on my European Tour picks, the guy just makes so many weekend runs. Feel like he battles harder than anyone to get himself consistently in contention
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Old 10-13-2019, 09:09 AM   #35
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was on him for so much of the summer and I've been fading him the last month or so, because his price and popularity have skyrocketed. LOLMe
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Old 10-13-2019, 09:50 AM   #36
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah I know what you mean, I've always had him each way, but was starting to feel like I should just bet him top 10 cos he was never closing.
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Old 10-13-2019, 03:30 PM   #37
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Yeah I know what you mean, I've always had him each way, but was starting to feel like I should just bet him top 10 cos he was never closing.
Yeah, I think it was the Irish or Scottish Open where he had it but had a few loose swings on Sunday. IIRC, he had to scramble on 18 to qualify for the Open Championship.
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Old 10-13-2019, 06:34 PM   #38
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

All in all this was a dreamy golf betting week. Ran hotter than the sun and ended + 38 units. I have one on this Lanto guy at 2.0 for the lols because there was some chatter about him here. So either +37 or + 39 for the week.

Excited for next weeks action.
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Old 10-13-2019, 06:50 PM   #39
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Bravo sir. Well done.
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Old 10-14-2019, 04:52 AM   #40
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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What do you mean by the weather advantage?
the guys who teed off on friday afternoon were going to be driving into wind with over 30 mph gusts

that was the only time wind would get a severe uptick during a time when tee times were known - so simply eliminating half the golfers who had the am/pm slots and hitting the pm/am you would theoretically gain a few sklansky strokes
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Old 10-14-2019, 02:08 PM   #41
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 10-14-2019, 02:22 PM   #42
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 10-14-2019, 06:00 PM   #43
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Smile Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
the guys who teed off on friday afternoon were going to be driving into wind with over 30 mph gusts

that was the only time wind would get a severe uptick during a time when tee times were known - so simply eliminating half the golfers who had the am/pm slots and hitting the pm/am you would theoretically gain a few sklansky strokes
Clever, I'm going to start making sure I check this every week. Will let you know if I think I spot a weather advantage play. Doing a bit more research into the course this week and being more diligent in checking form and matching stats to course type. I've been mostly eyeballing it, but I watch / follow golf a lot so it hasn't been totally blind.

Will be only betting Euro tour properly again this week. Mainly because I'm in the UK, so watching it works out perfectly with my schedule before poker in the evening. I'd miss railing most of an Asian event. I did have a few temptations when I looked at the PGA tour lineup though.

First thoughts on Euro tour:

Viktor Perez - won 2 weeks ago on several different links course's, home field advantage @ 41.0

Edoardo Molinario - He's trending nicely, has won on links courses before, genetically good at golf and this is a softer field, which frankly he needs to get the win @ 71.0

Shubhankar Sharma - All I really know is that he did well last week, putted well and he hits it straight @ 51.0

Normally I'd fancy 1 unit on each of these guys and 2 units on a few more expensive options (all bet each way). I haven't settled on anyone in the next group, because these are the problems I see

Alex Noren - Won last year, but he hasn't had a top 10 in forever, simply really over priced @12.0. John Rahm might be the only favourite I ever bet on the euro tour.

Erik Van Rooyen - Form is really good, made the cut at the open and won the Scandanavian masters 2 weeks later, I think he's a bit expensive, and saw him raging pretty hard last week, that scares me off @ 15.0

Kurt Kitayama - I like to bet young guys who have come close lately and was impressed with his demeanour last week, he is a bomber though and I'm not sure this course calls for it. With 2 wins already I like the price @ 36.0

All just first impressions, leaning towards firing only higher odds guys this week at the moment.

Last edited by 4BetBoke; 10-14-2019 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 10-15-2019, 08:12 AM   #44
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

https://rotogrinders.com/threads/hou...ly-fri-3149522

the guy who does football and baseball weather at rotogrinders also does it for golf, he usually posts it in the forum a day or two before the event

beware though, he's pretty great for baseball but his stuff sometimes conflicts a little with what i read elsewhere and he knows nothing of golf or the event ie there are times when it's a special event without the am/pm split ie everyone is morning because there are two courses etc so i typically use him for a simple way to check if it'll be clean or not and if it looks messy i'll start looking up more specific forecasts for the region

golfweather.com also pretty good but their site design is a nightmare so it can be a hassle using the search feature for the course specific forecast

also, at least for dfs, a nice advantage on those rare times it's a multi course event, often times one course is significantly harder than the other - have no idea if this is baked into single day betting markets though
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Old 10-15-2019, 08:54 AM   #45
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 10-15-2019, 08:57 AM   #46
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Decided just to fire South Korea after all, just couldn't find a group I really fancied on the European tour.

In for 4.3 units, all bets are E/W at 20% 1-7. Breaking even with any top 7 finishes.

Colin Morikawa @ 32.0 (1.8 units)
Joaquin Neimann @ 34.0 (1.2 units)
Ben An @ 51.0 (0.8 units)
Si Woo Kim @ 101.0 (0.5 units)
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:01 AM   #47
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Round 1 updates:

T1 Ben An @ 51.0 > 7.50
T2 Neimann @ 34.0 > 11.0
T15 Si Woo Kim @ 101.0 > 81.0
T15 Morikawa @ 23.0 > 29.0

I got a few 'snipes'. Added Danny Lee at 81.0 (0.8 units) on Boyle when he was 3 under and at 41.0 on all the other books I use. Currently at 51.0. Added an extra 0.1 units on Si Woo Kim when he was at 201.0 on William Hill.

There have been a few errors in the reporting. Si Woo Kim was listed as +1 on the PGA leaderboard, it then corrected to -1 and I placed the bet at 201 just as he had a few feet to go to -2. He was 34.0 within 10 minutes. Both these guys ran out of steam a bit, but always happy to pick up some value. Would be careful with any in-play betting if you're using the PGA leaderboard this week - I've seen quite a few recorded bogeys be corrected to pars etc.

Added Tommy Fleetwood top 5 at 6.0 for 1 unit, bad start for this bet though.
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Old 10-17-2019, 02:47 PM   #48
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by 4BetBoke View Post
Round 1 updates:

T1 Ben An @ 51.0 > 7.50
T2 Neimann @ 34.0 > 11.0
T15 Si Woo Kim @ 101.0 > 81.0
T15 Morikawa @ 23.0 > 29.0

Would be careful with any in-play betting if you're using the PGA leaderboard this week - I've seen quite a few recorded bogeys be corrected to pars etc.[...]


I noticed some errors and timing issues with U.S. leaderboards y'day.
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:30 PM   #49
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah, it just corrected birdies off Ben An and Niemann, ffs! Looks like that's what the books are going by, because they've been adjusting prices in line with the leaderboard.

I have a bad feeling JT is just gonna steamroll this
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:13 PM   #50
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Brooks WDed. That stings my DK lineups with him.
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