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Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

03-10-2020 , 01:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24
Sigs, Excel question. When you import from web, do the numbers auto-adjust from week to week when the PGA Tour website adjusts things on their end?
ha, i actually know the answer to this



if you used the "get external data" "from web" option then it'll look something like this image, the excel file will remember where it is and what it grabbed and if you hit the "refresh all" button at the top of the image appearing under the "formulas" tab it'll slowly but surely update it

just take a quick gander at the list and then hit refresh all - you won't be able to do anything with excel (not even with other sheets or separate windows) while it's updating the data so have something else to do during that time and then check back in after a few minutes and you should notice there are new data inputs and excel functions again as normal

i've heard good things about power query (why my tab has competing data pulling buttons) so I have that addon installed but never got into it because my end goal is to do it all through python eventually

the cleanup of the data can be a mess but I've found a neat solution, if it's something simple i just need to grab I make sure the data imports the right and I use my cleanup system on the left like this with some hockey data


here i keep the left static with each of those boxes being like this

this way i can update the data and yet always have a clean list to pull from to integrate just the parts i want

here is a bit more complex where I just copy paste the GIR import and then using a combination of fuzzy logic and vlookup mix it with my preweighed historical data to get a new look


pro tip - keep you data importation sheets as separate files and then copy paste them into your master workbook, excel doesn't scale well and when i had everything all in one place it would sometimes take 5 minutes to open a file or save an update to it

also, anytime you make any changes or tinker about save as a new version, with golf I'm now on 3.2 and hockey 6.3 - this will be invaluable because the more complex things get the more you'll forget about some of the underlying logics and in the process of fixing one thing you can break ten others so it's nice to always have clean versions to go back to either as a reference point for how it used to work before you broke it or just as a new place to start over after a recent failed experiment

also, if possible, create a spot to just keep notes, at the time it'll seem completely unnecessary but at the beginning of each new season for each sport it takes me forever to figure out how I originally set everything up and having notes reminding you where you pulled the data, that you need to do error checking for that bug that sometimes pops up in driving distance, etc etc

you feel like an idiot taking notes because it's so obvious but you'll forget it all later - this is my biggest leak is not documenting my thoughts and processes and way too much time is wasted trying to figure out what on earth I was trying to do with some code that's a year old and now broken and I don't even know what it's for anymore
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03-10-2020 , 01:54 AM
also, check out the ptech extension for chrome, it makes pulling tables of data very easy, it's a lot faster and simpler than excel

excel works great for sites that use static web addresses but a lot of other places are far more dynamic and you need to find it with your browser each time, i right click with ptech, then double click the table and boom got the csv on my computer that's much easier and cleaner than trying to highlight it all and copy pasting, particularly useful for larger datasets and it also defeats a lot of the defenses these sites sometimes use to prevent you from copy pasting using traditional methods
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03-10-2020 , 06:30 AM
Thanks Rick. I appreciate the screenshots and thoughts.

I have a business minor with a focus of accounting from 20 years ago where it was all done in Excel, so I feel very comfortable using it.

Every time I grab data I make a new tab and label it with descriptors (par 3 birdie %, SG-T2G, etc). I also find that when I copy a tab and paste it into a new tab, that it works better if I paste the values and not the functions. That way I can't screw up the original data and I can try out a few different things that aren't interconnected.

When I get a chance this morning, I will check out that PTEC add-on. Also, I imported the data from web like you recommended. I figured that out about a year ago, and it's usually very good. Lately, I've found that I get errors with the rank for this week and stuff. I don't care about that, so I usually just delete those columns, then load the table.

Anyway, in my calculations so far, there look like some really good 6K values. Zach Johnson and Charley Hoffman are a couple I noticed at a quick glance. More to come.

Thanks Rick. I love this thread.
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03-10-2020 , 07:15 AM
happy to help, for whatever reason excel just panics when you have multiple tabs all pulling data from various sources and things ground to a halt

so i'd have separate sheets for each individual data pull and a master sheet where they were all organized into a final sheet

definitely install the fuzzy lookup addon for excel https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/down....aspx?id=15011

once you start pulling data from multiple places you'll get variations where at one place someone is Jr. and another they don't say, one place will call him Ted and another Teddy etc etc, fuzzy logic solves all those inconsistencies for you and it's just amazing, cut my excel grunt work in half

just watch a few videos on it via youtube and you'll get the hang of it soon enough

here's an example of how to use fuzzy lookup, it'll take a little while to set it up initially but once you get the hang of it you'll be flying
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03-11-2020 , 01:59 AM
Likely cash lineup for me at the Players:

Mcilroy
DeChambeau
Kuchar
Horschel
Berger
Dahmen

Best of luck all
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03-11-2020 , 06:36 AM
I tried to watch the fuzzy video, Rick, but it won't load. Maybe it's a mobile error. I'll try again this afternoon.
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03-11-2020 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24
I tried to watch the fuzzy video, Rick, but it won't load. Maybe it's a mobile error. I'll try again this afternoon.
i noticed that too just now



but really any of the dozens of videos on fuzzy lookup on youtube will suffice
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03-11-2020 , 03:29 PM
Ran a bunch of Simulations. Got some interesting data. Might not go as heavy as I wanted.

Webb Simpson is at the top of my model.
Brooks is hands off (40% to make cut and never finishing inside the Top 15).
Berger at $7200 is 22% to Top 3.
Cam Smith at $7000 is 14% to Top 3.

I'll narrow it down this afternoon.
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03-11-2020 , 05:26 PM
cool, i've sadly been swamped lately so will have to run everything fairly close to the edge
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03-11-2020 , 06:48 PM
What do you sharps think

Rahm/Matsuyama/Morikawa/Ancer/Hatton

then do I go Horschel or Fitzpatrick. I have Horschel scoring slightly higher. Fitzpatrick slightly more likely to make the cut. For DK

For FD thinking

Rahm/Matsuyama/Morikawa/Ancer/Hatton/Fitz

So should I just go Fitz on DK so I don't have to sweat two scrubs?

The other FD option is to go Rory/Webb instead of Rahm/Matsuyama

I think Rory scores higher than Rahm, but Rahm/Webb is lower than Rahm/Matsuyama
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03-11-2020 , 08:07 PM
went with Horschel. For the milly maker I only put in 50 lineups because I know it's a waste of money, but here's my distribution.

Figured I'd go high on the low end guys and then hope to pair them with the big guys

Spoiler:

Justin Thomas 6% (3/50)


lets get this million everyone. if not me, you.
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03-11-2020 , 08:15 PM
I'm operating with a much smaller bankroll, but I did enter 2 lineups.
Rory, Webb, Hideki, Berger, Cam Smith, Munoz
Justin Thomas, Cantlay, Webb, Berger, Cam Smith, Zack Johnson

DK Cash Lineup
Webb, Bryson, Morikawa, Hideki, Reed, Ryan Palmer

Let's get it, yo!
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03-11-2020 , 08:23 PM
Sigs, I have Horschel with a slightly high chance of making the cut, but Fitzpatrick with more Top 5 potential.
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03-12-2020 , 12:50 AM
What odds are we putting up for the Masters to be played with no crowds?
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03-12-2020 , 03:00 AM
No crowds -1000

Yes crowds +875
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03-12-2020 , 07:18 AM
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Sungjae Im
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Dustin Johnson
Hideki Matsuyama
Webb Simpson
Bryson DeChambeau
Rickie Fowler
Tommy Fleetwood
Tony Finau
Adam Scott
Collin Morikawa
Gary Woodland
Paul Casey
Daniel Berger
Tyrrell Hatton
Xander Schauffele
Marc Leishman
Patrick Reed
Scottie Scheffler
Matt Kuchar
Joel Dahmen
Byeong Hun An
Ryan Moore
Joaquin Niemann
Billy Horschel
Russell Knox
Chez Reavie
Adam Hadwin
Sebastian Munoz
Kevin Na
Bud Cauley
Ian Poulter
Jason Day
Harris English
Jim Furyk
Tom Hoge
Abraham Ancer
Sergio Garcia
Viktor Hovland
Carlos Ortiz
Adam Long
Russell Henley
Brandt Snedeker
Justin Rose
Brian Harman
Bronson Burgoon
Harold Varner III
Keegan Bradley
Scott Piercy
Bubba Watson
Nick Watney
Kevin Streelman
Vaughn Taylor
Ryan Palmer
Corey Conners
Lanto Griffin
Zach Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Shane Lowry
Talor Gooch
Cameron Tringale
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Brooks Koepka
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Francesco Molinari
Max Homa
Jason Kokrak
J.T. Poston
Kevin Kisner
Nick Taylor
Sam Ryder
Charles Howell III
Emiliano Grillo
Kyle Stanley
Chesson Hadley
Luke List
Cameron Smith
Charley Hoffman
Martin Laird
Mark Hubbard
Adam Schenk
Brian Stuard
Louis Oosthuizen
Denny McCarthy
Cameron Champ
Andrew Putnam
Brice Garnett
Jason Dufner
Phil Mickelson
Brendon Todd
Sepp Straka
Jhonattan Vegas
Lucas Glover
Nate Lashley
Danny Lee
Pat Perez
Jimmy Walker
Rory Sabbatini
Branden Grace
Scott Stallings
Ryan Armour
Graeme McDowell
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
J.B. Holmes
Matthew Wolff
Andrew Landry
Patrick Rodgers
Brian Gay
Jazz Janewattananond
Aaron Wise
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Aaron Baddeley
Sam Burns
Tyler Duncan
Henrik Stenson
Kevin Tway
Danny Willett
Matt Jones
Wyndham Clark
Keith Mitchell
Bernd Wiesberger
Troy Merritt
Dylan Frittelli
Sung Kang
C.T. Pan
Erik van Rooyen
Peter Malnati
J.J. Spaun
Scott Brown
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Mackenzie Hughes
Michael Thompson
Patton Kizzire
Victor Perez
Si Woo Kim
Chris Stroud
Matt Wallace
Jim Herman
Roger Sloan
Matt Every
Retief Goosen
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03-12-2020 , 07:44 AM
ran out of time, only made a single lineup - horschel, woodland, hatton, fitzpatrick, ancer, im
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03-12-2020 , 09:12 AM
Whoa. Victor Perez is way down there. He's a really good ball striker. Not the best around the greens, which is why I suspect he's down there.
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03-12-2020 , 09:21 AM
so many of my higher entry h2h's the only difference is i want horschel and they went fitzpatrick lol

hope it pays off

matsuyama with a clutch 3 birdie bonus on the first 3 holes
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03-12-2020 , 10:26 AM
sigs are you still getting action in h2h from other regs?

that's a big reason why i'm hesitant to expand to other sites, don't want to go through that rite of passage of posting h2hs without worrying about other competent players taking them
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03-12-2020 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24
Whoa. Victor Perez is way down there. He's a really good ball striker. Not the best around the greens, which is why I suspect he's down there.
looked into it, there's not enough pga data on him so my model gives it a default score that's pretty negative

been meaning to start pulling non pga data for a while - it seems coronavirus could suddenly free up a lot of nhl/nba time to dedicate to improving golf

always a silver lining
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03-12-2020 , 11:52 AM
I manually inputted Euro data from their website. He ended up in the middle of my model, but nothing special.
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03-12-2020 , 11:56 AM
I got a decent sweat going. In a 1st round showdown, I stacked the morning wave.

Cantlay, Dechambeau, Hideki, Scheffler, Berger, Denny McCarthy

LFG!!!!!!!!!!
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03-12-2020 , 01:21 PM
All my $50+ were taken before it started, but last week I auto matched a lot of people. there's also different people tho. Like some guy bric kept taking them early on and doesn't anymroe. dagodfather same. What's weird is on FD a lot of my higher entry ones were taken by people who don't even have badges or have the 1st tier badge. Either alt accounts or just random people which is nice.

Matsuyama is a beast today

8 PAR, 8 BIR, 1 BOG, 1 WINS, 1 BIR3+, 1 EAG

Should have done Bryson too like you. He was my biggest H2H bet. And I let down my boy Scheffler. Was too focused on Ancer instead of him.
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03-12-2020 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley
All my $50+ were taken before it started, but last week I auto matched a lot of people. there's also different people tho. Like some guy bric kept taking them early on and doesn't anymroe. dagodfather same. What's weird is on FD a lot of my higher entry ones were taken by people who don't even have badges or have the 1st tier badge. Either alt accounts or just random people which is nice.

Matsuyama is a beast today

8 PAR, 8 BIR, 1 BOG, 1 WINS, 1 BIR3+, 1 EAG

Should have done Bryson too like you. He was my biggest H2H bet. And I let down my boy Scheffler. Was too focused on Ancer instead of him.
i'd take the over on random degens

my win rate for h2hs of $5 or less is close to break even at 58%
win rate for >5 <100 about 60%
win rate for >100 over 70% because the degens aren't intersted in lots of lineups and contests, they just hand build a single lineup and choose a single h2h or two that is the amount they are interested in wagering
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