Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-08-2020, 08:37 AM   #426
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,153
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

My guy, Wyndham Clark, started with a neuf.

OB, OB, Fairway Bunker, Green, 3-putts
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 09:52 AM   #427
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

couple more that got posted late

Viktor Hovland - Zach Johnson - Match-ups - Zach Johnson Odds: +136 RISK: 0.49
Keith Mitchell - Stewart Cink - Match-ups - Stewart Cink Odds: +112 RISK: 0.3
Joel Dahmen - Kyoung-Hoon Lee - Match-ups - Joel Dahmen Odds: -119 RISK: 0.58
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 10:07 AM   #428
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Nice Qatar Masters tournament. Here's the full results

Full Tournament:
Spoiler:

Qatar Full Tournament Match Ups: 9-4-2 +3.6 on 6.97u risked

Round 2:
Spoiler:

Qatar Round 2: 1-3 -1.46u on 3.13u risked

Round 3:
Spoiler:

Qatar Round 3: 5-1 +3.17 on 4.75u risked

Round 4:
Spoiler:

Qatar Round 4: 3-3 +0.1u on 2.91u risked

Qatar Total: 18-11-2 +5.21u on 17.75u risked (29.35% ROI)
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 10:53 AM   #429
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,572
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

nicely done
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 10:57 AM   #430
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

if anyone bet the full tournament Qatar at certain books we like double check

Four of mine were mis-graded. Crazy how they were all graded as a loss when they were wins but not one loss was graded as a win. Seems almost improbable.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 04:05 PM   #431
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,133
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Hang on Hatton!!!!
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 04:13 PM   #432
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,133
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

As soon as I post that he shanks it into the water. Hopefully he doesn’t implode.
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 04:37 PM   #433
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i had hatton ~80% to win before that double bogey and now he's only 49

at least rory isn't gonna win
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 05:33 PM   #434
ligastar
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ligastar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: WWMMD
Posts: 20,398
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
9-5-1, 63.3% winning percentage

15 units wagered

+3.998 units, 26.7% return
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
[All plays are tournament match-ups]

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scheffler -108 vs. Niemann
10-5-1, 65.6% winning percentage

16u wagered

+4.998u, 31.2% return
ligastar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 05:34 PM   #435
ligastar
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ligastar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: WWMMD
Posts: 20,398
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Nice Qatar Masters tournament. Here's the full results
ligastar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 06:00 PM   #436
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

R4 was a disaster, but Hatton saved the tournament. I've been getting killed on Round 1-4 matchups this year but killing on full tournament. No idea why.

API:
Full Tournament:
Tommy Fleetwood - Bryson DeChambeau - Match-ups - Tommy Fleetwood Odds: -123 RISK: 0.64 LOSS -0.64
Viktor Hovland - Abraham Ancer - Match-ups - Abraham Ancer Odds: -125 RISK: 1.04 LOSS -1.04
Hideki Matsuyama - Adam Scott - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -118 RISK: 0.81 WIN +0.69
Scottie Scheffler - Joaquin Niemann - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: -115 RISK: 1.3 WIN +1.13
Charl Schwartzel - Ian Poulter - Match-ups - Ian Poulter Odds: -135 RISK: 2.28 WIN +1.69
Tony Finau - Jason Day - Match-ups - Tony Finau Odds: -103 RISK: 0.4 WIN +0.39
Henrik Stenson - Byeong Hun An - Match-ups - Byeong Hun An Odds: -108 RISK: 1.34 WIN +1.24

API Full Tournament Match ups: 5-2 +3.46 on 7.81u risked

Round 2:
Ryan Moore - Alex Noren - Match-ups - Alex Noren Odds: +111 RISK 0.81u LOSS -0.81
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Bud Cauley - Match-ups - Bud Cauley Odds: +119 RISK 0.2u WIN +0.24
Brendon Todd - Troy Merritt - Match-ups - Troy Merritt Odds: +116 RISK 0.46u PUSH
Brooks Koepka - Adam Scott - Match-ups - Adam Scott Odds: -108 RISK 0.35u WIN +0.32
Scott Piercy - Andrew Putnam - Match-ups - Andrew Putnam Odds: +105 RISK 0.16u WIN +0.17
Tyrrell Hatton - Charley Hoffman - Match-ups - Charley Hoffman Odds: +165 RISK 0.47u LOSS -0.47
Abraham Ancer - Jason Kokrak - Match-ups - Abraham Ancer Odds: -118 RISK: 0.26u WIN +0.22
Xander Schauffele - Lucas Glover - Match-ups - Lucas Glover Odds: +180 RISK: 0.84u LOSS -0.84
Sungjae Im - Marc Leishman - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -120 RISK: 0.25u PUSH
Bubba Watson - Graeme McDowell - Match-ups - Bubba Watson Odds: -123 RISK: 1.2u LOSS -1.2
Byeong-Hun An - Beau Hossler - Match-ups - Beau Hossler Odds: +180 RISK: 0.84u WIN +1.51

API Round 2: 5-4-2 -0.86u on 5.84u risked

Round 3:
Harry Higgs (3rd Rnd) +100* vs Talor Gooch (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.63 LOSS -0.63
Abraham Ancer (3rd Rnd) -120* vs Max Homa (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.56 LOSS -0.56
Byeong Hun An (3rd Rnd) -130* vs Keegan Bradley (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.11 WIN +0.08
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Sam Burns - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: -110 RISK: 0.4 WIN +0.46
Brendon Todd - T. Hoge - Match-ups - T. Hoge Odds: -102 RISK: 0.35 WIN +0.34
Scottie Scheffler - Rickie Fowler - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: +127 RISK: 0.64 WIN +0.81
Hideki Matsuyama - Graeme McDowell - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -196 RISK: 1.91 LOSS -1.91
Matt Wallace - Keith Mitchell - Match-ups - Keith Mitchell Odds: +107 RISK: 0.55 WIN +0.59
Dylan Frittelli - Patrick Rodgers - Match-ups - Dylan Frittelli Odds: +117 RISK: 0.49 LOSS -0.49

API Round 3: 5-4 -1.31u on 5.64u risked

Round 4:
Viktor Hovland - Zach Johnson - Match-ups - Zach Johnson Odds: +136 RISK: 0.49 LOSS -0.49
Keith Mitchell - Stewart Cink - Match-ups - Stewart Cink Odds: +112 RISK: 0.3 LOSS -0.3
Joel Dahmen - Kyoung-Hoon Lee - Match-ups - Joel Dahmen Odds: -119 RISK: 0.58 WIN +0.49
(Golf) Rory McIlroy - Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: +254 RISK: 0.47 LOSS -0.47
(Golf) Bryson DeChambeau - Matt Jones - Match-ups - Matt Jones Odds: +183 RISK: 1.45 LOSS -1.45
(Golf) Harris English - Sung Kang - Match-ups - Harris English Odds: -119 RISK: 1.85 LOSS -1.85

API Round 4: 1-5 -4.07 on 5.14u risked

To Win:
Hatton Wins +275 Risk: 1.85 WIN +5.09
McIlroy loses -230 Risk: 2.01 WIN +0.87

To Win Total: 2-0 +5.96 on 3.86 risked

Total: 18-15-2 +3.18u on 28.29u risked (11.24%)
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 06:00 PM   #437
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,133
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Hell yeah ship it!! Fun sweat
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 06:03 PM   #438
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

surprisingly 52% DFS return too. no idea how that happened considering everyone was horrible
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 06:27 PM   #439
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

whoops Zach Johnson did beat Hovland

So Round 4 should be 2-4 -2.91

and total 19-14-2 +4.34u (15.34% ROI)

still crappy day 4 but better
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 06:50 PM   #440
kyan972
centurion
 
kyan972's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Drop bear, Aus
Posts: 137
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good week for my cash line up for 360.5 points

Mcilroy
Morikawa
Hatton
Piercy
Ortiz
Gooch

Onto the a stacked players week, good luck all
kyan972 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2020, 07:56 PM   #441
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

wow datagolf only won 18 of their 107 bets this week

hate to see it.

the pricing on DK next week looks ridiculous. you can stack all the superstars and still have 8k left over
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 04:51 AM   #442
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,572
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
wow datagolf only won 18 of their 107 bets this week

hate to see it.

the pricing on DK next week looks ridiculous. you can stack all the superstars and still have 8k left over
do you sub them? are they helpful?

i used to scrape their projections to average with my own and numberfire's (50% me, 30% dg, 20% nf) until they realized putting an opaque html element in front of everything didn't stop scrapers nor stopped browsing because you could just open up the editor and delete it and see it all

it's only like $10 or something but wasn't impressed with what I got when it was easy to steal and figure i'd probably get a higher roi just putting that money directly into contests intstead

must admit I laughed for about 10 minutes after running the excel import function and I got back a whole bunch of "no peeking" results when they figured out what people like me were doing

still use them as a source for course fit information and incorporate their own golfer rankings as well but those resources are free anyway
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 08:13 AM   #443
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

nope, don't use them.

sometimes i'll check their leaderboard only because it actually updates faster than pga's for some reason

pga has the worst web and app development team
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 09:25 AM   #444
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,133
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Players Outrights:

Fitzpatrick
Ancer
Matsuyama
Ben An
Morikawa
Homa
Berger

Last edited by gmcarroll33; 03-09-2020 at 09:48 AM.
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 12:34 PM   #445
gmcarroll33
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
gmcarroll33's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Losing my bankroll on Paul Casey
Posts: 6,133
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Added Cantlay
gmcarroll33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 03:44 PM   #446
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Players Championship full tournament match ups

Tommy Fleetwood - Dustin Johnson - Match-ups - Tommy Fleetwood Odds: -119 RISK: 1.91
Patrick Cantlay - Hideki Matsuyama - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -116 RISK: 0.6
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Jason Day - Match-ups - Matthew Fitzpatrick Odds: -118 RISK: 0.53
Gary Woodland - Collin Morikawa - Match-ups - Collin Morikawa Odds: -108 RISK: 0.67
Marc Leishman - Tyrrell Hatton - Match-ups - Tyrrell Hatton Odds: -108 RISK: 1.76
Brandt Snedeker - Ian Poulter - Match-ups - Brandt Snedeker Odds: -108 RISK: 0.61
Kevin Na - Kevin Kisner - Match-ups - Kevin Kisner Odds: +103 RISK: 0.37
Shane Lowry - Abraham Ancer - Match-ups - Abraham Ancer Odds: -123 RISK: 0.86
Louis Oosthuizen - Sergio Garcia - Match-ups - Louis Oosthuizen Odds: -101 RISK: 0.38
Patrick Cantlay - Sungjae Im - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -101 RISK: 0.63
Bryson DeChambeau - Dustin Johnson - Match-ups - Bryson DeChambeau Odds: -108 RISK: 2.18
Henrik Stenson - Daniel Berger - Match-ups - Henrik Stenson Odds: -104 RISK: 0.32
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 03:55 PM   #447
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Punt to wins

Billy Horschel +9000 0.08u
Henrik Stenson +9000 0.05u
Matsuyama +3008 0.04u
Morikawa +5000 0.02u
Abraham Ancer +9000 0.23u (have him ~1.8% to win)
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 04:15 PM   #448
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,153
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sigs, Excel question. When you import from web, do the numbers auto-adjust from week to week when the PGA Tour website adjusts things on their end?
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 07:13 PM   #449
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I never use excel so I have no idea, but I don't see why not. It should just re-populate the latest info . When I scrape with Python it just all gets stored into a bunch of databases and I work from those.

Only negative I see with using stats - golf has tons of variance from round to round. I tend to weigh recent results much less as a result. If you just use overall stats it would treat them all as equal.
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2020, 07:23 PM   #450
Precept24
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: New Haven, CT
Posts: 8,153
Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm using full season data. Most guys have 40+ rounds, which I think is enough. Some guys like Brooks don't have many, but that's okay. One good tourney will skew his stats in the correct direction.

Instead if highlighting the table, copying, and pasting, I'm importing the data. I'll know next week if it worked. Using strokes gained data, but planning on using it per hole instead of per round to adjust birdie probabilities. Hoping to work on it more tonight. I grabbed the data, now I just have to code some.

It's my youngest daughter's birthday, and my wife is sick with flu-like symptoms, so my time has to wait until later.

I won that milli-maker ticket and I'm planning on at least one more lineup in that contest.

Here's hoping for a good week.
Precept24 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:45 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online