What a horrible day, but somehow everyone else is having a worse day.

If +2 is the cut and Ancer at huge ownership misses it that's so much better than 2% vaughn taylor missing it.

+3 I somehow get 6/6, but so does mostly everyone else since there's where An and Schauffle are. I have +3 currently at ~72% to happen unfortunately.

At least moderately owned Niemann is missing the cut at +4.

Gogogo Hatton, English, and Matsuyama.

LOL Every

lol carlos ortiz

after 16 he was +1

then bogeys 17
triple bogey on 18
cut

sigs, this is a good thing because it exposes a hole in your sims, you need to factor in final hole triple bogeys

man... curious to see how my lines stack up against the field, it feels like a bloodbath but for the most part I'm 4/6 or better so will have to see where ownership lays

My sim lineup got 5/6. Rory, Xander, Ty Hatton, Moore, Chappell, and Denny McCarthy

Need a complete meltdown adjustment for several golfers.

R2 H2H small loss, will add it all up at the end. Full tournament match ups are looking good. API 5-1 (Fleetwood with the L) with one pending, Qatar, 5-1-1 (Levy lost at small risk) with 8 pending.

Here's what I got for R3. Lets do this

Qatar:
Matthias Schwab (3rd Rnd) +115* vs Robert MacIntyre (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.67
Chris Paisley (3rd Rnd) +100* vs Stephen Gallacher (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.6
Darren Fichardt - Jack Senior - Match-ups - Jack Senior Odds: -106 RISK: 1.25
Thomas Pieters - Lorenzo Gagli - Match-ups - Lorenzo Gagli Odds: +162 RISK: 0.31
George Coetzee - David Horsey - Match-ups - David Horsey Odds: +159 RISK: 0.84
Gavin Green - Brandon Stone - Match-ups - Gavin Green Odds: -112 RISK: 1.08

API:
Harry Higgs (3rd Rnd) +100* vs Talor Gooch (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.63
Abraham Ancer (3rd Rnd) -120* vs Max Homa (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.56
Byeong Hun An (3rd Rnd) -130* vs Keegan Bradley (3rd Rnd) RISK: 0.11
Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Sam Burns - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: -110 RISK: 0.4
Brendon Todd - T. Hoge - Match-ups - T. Hoge Odds: -102 RISK: 0.35
Scottie Scheffler - Rickie Fowler - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: +127 RISK: 0.64
Hideki Matsuyama - Graeme McDowell - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -196 RISK: 1.91
Matt Wallace - Keith Mitchell - Match-ups - Keith Mitchell Odds: +107 RISK: 0.55
Dylan Frittelli - Patrick Rodgers - Match-ups - Dylan Frittelli Odds: +117 RISK: 0.49

sigs, any reason why you didn't like maverick mcnealy, he wasn't on my radar at all but I see he was pretty absurdly highly owned, probably main reason I'm looking at a profitable week despite not one 6/6

Mav is pretty volatile. Lots of birdies and bogeys. He piqued my interest a few years ago as an amateur. I've had his name down since then for my season long team.

This week is his first MC in forever (seemingly).

Ps. I know I'm not sigs, but I have strong positive feelings about this guy. Similar to my Wyndham Clark fanatacism.

Added more on Matsuyama and Morikawa. If either of these 2 would stop going to Disney World and would sink some putts they would be right there on Sunday. The summary of Matsuyama's golf career and why I get suckered into betting him every time the odds look right only to ***** about his awful putting.

thanks, he only popped up on radar recently but never really looked at him deeply because in the dozens of lines i generated he didn't pop up once... but to be fair he was somewhat high on the rankings i posted and was pretty close to min priced and even min priced on yahoo

definitely have a little homework now to look into him further and figure out why i didn't like him too much

also liked wyndham clark as well, when i first started pulling data for golf i thought I was a genius because I'd identified him as the second coming of dustin johnson, that was two years ago... so clearly my model needs some work

btw i value everyone's input here, just accustomed to sigs being the wise sage of sports betting that is often the only person to answer

hell man, you did a sim for this event, that puts your own analysis in the stratosphere above my own capabilities and given your profession your theoretical side probably top notch

it tilts me to no end i can't understand half the notation of the papers i read to improve - someone suggested a khan academy course to catch up on that stuff and i'm starting it this week

I had Maverick ~63% to make the cut but low Top 20, Top 10, and Top 5 odds so didn't think he was worth the $7400 salary based on my predicted finish of him.

He never seems to pop up as a good play, but he's like 50% owned in every double up and a lot of h2h people have him so someone must be touting him.

Talor Gooch is another one I'm never really on but everyone else seems to be.

Cabrera Bello was one I was initially on but got lucky and moved off him and his +12.

I don't know if Ancer getting thru the cut was good or bad considering he's +4 through 8 today. Might end up with less points when it's all done.

thanks for the input, in the meantime i looked up why my model looked elsewhere

it seems he 3puts at a higher than average rate and that's what penalized him as I'm terrified, probably irrationally so of meltdowns, he also doesn't have the greatest SG profile nor vegas odds to win. However, his scrambling is elite, which further reinforces that stat's correlation with making the cut

I looked around and found this narrative in a couple places

Underlooked Wind Players:
Corey Conners
Maverick McNealy
Matthew NeSmith
Harry Higgs
Stewart Cink
Mark Hubbard
Talor Gooch

that might explain the higher ownership on Gooch, McNealy, and Conners. Gooch and McNealy made 11 cuts out of 11 this year (before this one) too so maybe the run good

I don't weigh recent results too highly so that might be why. Not adjusting fast enough to him.

I tend to view players as more long term players. Guys who have statted well in the past tend to be good players. Good players are going to play well more often thank weaker (these guys are all pros) players.

Running the Sim was a grind. I have to be more efficient going forward.

My inputs were pretty low level, as I mainly just used par 3/4/5 splits. I made some manual adjustments when players had really small sample sizes.

I'm really just testing ideas and going really small. If I can be more efficient, I can try multiple models.

As for the notation in that paper, sheesh. I teach high school math and have a masters in secondary math education, and I struggled with it, too. I read more of the words and am trying to make sense of things in my head.

In other news, I have a Hatton, Kang, Chappell, Wolff, Conners, Hubbard lineup on Superdraft that's up there, but will tumble when I don't have two guys at T-1.

Holy Carnage Batman

yeah, sometimes i wish they either didn't penalize bogeys so much of just played on easier courses, these massive + swings are tilting as hell

6 was a good hole for those of us with Scheffler vs Fowler

Scheffler hits the pin with his second shot, makes an eagle 3. Fowler hits 2 balls in the water, takes a 9!

bogeyd 7 too!

got super lucky with An vs. Bradley. This morning saw An +100 and max bet it a couple times back to -130

An at +3 after the round, Bradley +3 coming into 16. Birdie 16 +2, Bogey 17 +3, Bogey 18 +4. Easy game.

R3 for Qatar went amazing. R3 for API went the opposite of that for posted. I got lucky with adding on to An.

Couple small-ish value out there for R4 Qatar

(Golf) George Coetzee - Justin Harding - Match-ups - Justin Harding Odds: +108 RISK: 0.4
(Golf) Thomas Pieters - Matthias Schwab - Match-ups - Matthias Schwab Odds: -102 RISK: 0.41
(Golf) Matthew Jordan - A. Saddier - Match-ups - Matthew Jordan Odds: -115 RISK: 0.17
(Golf) Robert Macintyre - Alejandro Canizares - Match-ups - Robert Macintyre Odds: -154 RISK: 0.87
Gavin Green (4th Rnd) +115 vs Joost Luiten (4th Rnd) RISK: 0.56
Jordan Smith (4th Rnd) +100 vs Ross Fisher (4th Rnd) RISK: 0.5

Even though I'm on Kang, his swing looks like a high handicapper. Two triples makes sense.

Two to wins I like

Hatton Wins +275 Risk: 1.85
McIlroy loses -230 Risk: 2.01

R4 Arnold Palmer played:

English -135 > Kang
Jones +181 > Dechambeau
Homa -119 > Burns
Sabbatini +114 > Kokrak (p. sure my stuff overrates Sabbatini but still played)
Mcdowell -105 > Wallace
N. Taylor -110 > Poulter

Only see 3 bets for R4 API but lot of value IMO

(Golf) Rory McIlroy - Christiaan Bezuidenhout - Match-ups - Christiaan Bezuidenhout Odds: +254 RISK: 0.47
(Golf) Bryson DeChambeau - Matt Jones - Match-ups - Matt Jones Odds: +183 RISK: 1.45
(Golf) Harris English - Sung Kang - Match-ups - Harris English Odds: -119 RISK: 1.85