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Old 03-03-2020, 01:09 PM   #376
ligastar
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
[All plays are tournament match-ups]

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scheffler -108 vs. Niemann
Looks like I sniffed out some value, as Scheffler is now -134.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:25 PM   #377
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sigs,

When scraping data, what do you do with guys who aren't listed on the PGA website? Brooks (others, too) hasn't played enough rounds to qualify for the stat lists.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:15 AM   #378
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Early DK cash lineup looking like:

Mcilroy
An
Hatton
English
Piercy
Higgs
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:31 AM   #379
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

current dummy cash line based off muscle memory and taking heavy input from sigs is

vaughn taylor
rory sabbatini
lucas glover
rory mclroy
hideki matsuyama
sunjae im
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:36 AM   #380
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i don't really like sabbatini this week, poor course fit (whether you believe in that or not). I only have him 56% to make the cut.

I think I'm going

Schauffele
Ancer
Morikawa
Hatton
Horschel
Scheffler

I think the cheaper players that will be high owned are Leishman, Stenson, Ancer, Hatton. Rory will probably be the highest owned overall but 11.8k on DK is ridiculous. Same with Fleetwood and DeChambeau.

I still haven't looked too much into Yahoo but it seems like Ancer and Hatton would be good there too. Maybe a Yahoo lineup could be Fleetwood (relatively cheap there), Ancer, Hatton, An (tho he's been wildly inconsistent recently +6 after R1 to almost winning it last week), Day, FItzpatrick?

I just scrape the data off of the tournaments page and get the play by play. They used to have some json file you could access but I believe they turned it off last year.
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Old 03-04-2020, 01:09 AM   #381
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

word, i'll jam that in and maybe you'll get out of makeup

figures the week sabbatini is basically min priced is the week you don't like him

beginning to run model now and will share the worthless rankings

sigs, from my understanding, yahoo is far less forgiving than other sites and most of the scoring comes not from counting stats but rather through finishing position bonus

but i've found the old adage of "go for birdies and bogies guys instead people who make par" is not true for yahoo because the penalty for bogeys is nearly 3x that of other sites so you either want winners or people who never make mistakes
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Old 03-04-2020, 05:59 PM   #382
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm still working on a bootstrapping simulation, but I'll likely run out of time to give it a try for this week.

My current cash lineup on DK (haven't done any other sites yet).

Matsuyama, Morikawa, Leishman, Ancer, Poston, Conners
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:41 PM   #383
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Gone with:

Mcilroy
Morikawa
Hatton
Piercy
Ortiz
Gooch

Looks to be a nice play to take early players in R1 with strong winds for the afternoon wave
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:53 PM   #384
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

PGA Outrights:

Matsuyama
Watson
Finau
Ben AN
Morikawa
Hatton
Ancer
English
Varner

Euro:

Macintyre (wrist be damned)
Detry
Ross Fisher
Gavin Green
Guido

Last edited by gmcarroll33; 03-04-2020 at 09:13 PM.
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:04 PM   #385
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Thoughts on Leishman vs Im in a R1 H2H match up? Thinking of betting Leish (-105) as i think he will be the superior wind player but not sure how good or bad Im is in the wind.
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:45 PM   #386
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I have Im at 50.16% chance to win, Leishman 40.2%, Tie: 9.5% in R1 matchup

So fair for Leishman should be ~+122

but I don't really factor in weather that much.

Decided to Stars and Scrubs it up. Don't feel good about it but what can you do.

DK: Rory/Ancer/Hatton/Horschel/V Taylor/C. Ortiz
FD: Rory/Schauffele/Ancer/Scheffler/V. Taylor/C. Ortiz
Yahoo.com: Rory/Fleetwood/Ancer/An/V. Taylor/C. Ortiz

I think Ancer will be a high owned low price guy. Morikawa another one. I want to use Morikawa but I think Rory has too much upside and he's going to be high owned so if you don't have him it could be the difference between win or loss.

Ortiz is a dart throw but I have him to make the cut ~70% of the time and ~22% Top 20. Similar for V. Taylor. I don't think either will be high owned. Ortiz more than Taylor.

Horschel about 74% cut and 29% Top 20, Hatton same.

Ancer 77%/33%
Rory 94%/73%
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Old 03-05-2020, 06:16 AM   #387
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ran some Sims. Relatively cheap guys names that popped that I didn't consider previously.

Kevin Chappel
Ryan Moore
Matthew Wolff
Denny McCarthy
Ty Hatton
Sung Kang

I'll going light this week as a test run. We'll see how it goes.
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Old 03-05-2020, 06:39 AM   #388
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

here's my rankings for this competition

Rory McIlroy
Sungjae Im
Hideki Matsuyama
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Tony Finau
Rickie Fowler
Adam Scott
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Marc Leishman
Ryan Moore
Joaquin Niemann
Patrick Reed
Scottie Scheffler
Byeong Hun An
Russell Knox
Abraham Ancer
Billy Horschel
Sebastian Munoz
Matthew NeSmith
Joel Dahmen
Ian Poulter
Bubba Watson
Jason Day
Bud Cauley
Tom Hoge
Kevin Na
Vaughn Taylor
Carlos Ortiz
Harry Higgs
Doc Redman
Harris English
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Brian Harman
Harold Varner III
Scott Piercy
Viktor Hovland
Kevin Streelman
Brendan Steele
Maverick McNealy
Lanto Griffin
Corey Conners
Kevin Kisner
Adam Long
J.T. Poston
Zach Johnson
Sam Ryder
Brian Stuard
Charles Howell III
Keegan Bradley
Nick Taylor
Talor Gooch
Francesco Molinari
Stewart Cink
Mark Hubbard
Lucas Glover
Phil Mickelson
Jason Kokrak
Emiliano Grillo
Nate Lashley
Max Homa
Denny McCarthy
Pat Perez
Andrew Putnam
Charley Hoffman
Robby Shelton
Cameron Champ
Henrik Stenson
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Xinjun Zhang
Scott Harrington
Jazz Janewattananond
Brendon Todd
Graeme McDowell
Rob Oppenheim
Rory Sabbatini
Wyndham Clark
Kevin Tway
J.B. Holmes
Brian Gay
Matthew Wolff
Tyrrell Hatton
Jimmy Walker
Matt Jones
Tyler Duncan
Matt Wallace
Patrick Rodgers
Henrik Norlander
Kevin Chappell
Danny Lee
Lee Westwood
Beau Hossler
Zac Blair
Alex Noren
Brooks Koepka
Troy Merritt
Sam Burns
Justin Rose
Sung Kang
Dylan Frittelli
C.T. Pan
Scott Brown
Keith Mitchell
Danny Willett
Anirban Lahiri
Si Woo Kim
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Jim Herman
Hank Lebioda
Steve Stricker
Matt Every
Sam Saunders
Vijay Singh
Davis Love III
Padraig Harrington
Charl Schwartzel
Rod Perry
Robert Gamez
Kevin Yu
Brandon Matthews
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Old 03-05-2020, 07:58 AM   #389
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

no big contests with overlay today but got a surprisingly large amount of h2h action so got about 1k in cash/gpp but very happy because most of it is well diversified in h2hs and biggest one anyone bit on was $50 so there aren't any single matchups that will break me

i don't know why, but despite knowing nothing about golf, i really enjoy modeling it and have added a bunch more stuff, finally relenting on things like course fit and putting and giving them more weight
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:33 AM   #390
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

golf is easy

pepperall gets disqualified for turning in an incorrect scoring card, loses h2h automatically

waring withdraws, bet canceled since he didn't play a hole.
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Old 03-05-2020, 11:22 AM   #391
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

nice

is anyone here berkeleyboss on yahoo by any chance? that account is also playing the sigs line in the $15
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Old 03-05-2020, 12:13 PM   #392
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

DK golf pricing is such a sham.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:21 PM   #393
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

why do so many people sleep on Vaughn Taylor. He's ~2% owned in all my double ups but he's always close to min priced, has a great course history this week, and always gets tons of birdies.

he's unlikely to win, but for 7k every week what do you want
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:14 PM   #394
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

never mind V Taylor is the worst. how do you put it into the water off the tee on 6
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:28 PM   #395
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Rory with the ultimate 1st round hand job of a draw imaginable. Damnit
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Old 03-05-2020, 02:47 PM   #396
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol after birding 7 he puts it into the water again on 8
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Old 03-05-2020, 07:12 PM   #397
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Full tournament matchups looking good so far, but who knows what will happen tomorrow. The opponent of our big bets look like they're gonna miss the cut which would be nice.

Here's what I like for Round 2 of the Qatar Masters

Andy Sullivan - Scott Jamieson - Match-ups - Scott Jamieson Odds: +112 RISK: 0.61
Ross Fisher - Gavin Green - Match-ups - Gavin Green Odds: +101 RISK: 0.83
Joost Luiten - Jason Scrivener - Match-ups - Jason Scrivener Odds: +136 RISK: 0.92
Thomas Pieters - Robert Macintyre - Match-ups - Robert Macintyre Odds: -102 RISK 0.77

Some slim value but it's out there.
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:12 PM   #398
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lot of 2nd round API bets, any good? Here's what I got

Ryan Moore - Alex Noren - Match-ups - Alex Noren Odds: +111 RISK 0.81u
Matthew Fitzpatrick - Bud Cauley - Match-ups - Bud Cauley Odds: +119 RISK 0.2u
Brendon Todd - Troy Merritt - Match-ups - Troy Merritt Odds: +116 RISK 0.46u
Brooks Koepka - Adam Scott - Match-ups - Adam Scott Odds: -108 RISK 0.35u
Scott Piercy - Andrew Putnam - Match-ups - Andrew Putnam Odds: +105 RISK 0.16u
Tyrrell Hatton - Charley Hoffman - Match-ups - Charley Hoffman Odds: +165 RISK 0.47u
Abraham Ancer - Jason Kokrak - Match-ups - Abraham Ancer Odds: -118 RISK: 0.26u
Xander Schauffele - Lucas Glover - Match-ups - Lucas Glover Odds: +180 RISK: 0.84u
Sungjae Im - Marc Leishman - Match-ups - Sungjae Im Odds: -120 RISK: 0.25u
Bubba Watson - Graeme McDowell - Match-ups - Bubba Watson Odds: -123 RISK: 1.2u
Byeong-Hun An - Beau Hossler - Match-ups - Beau Hossler Odds: +180 RISK: 0.84u
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:13 PM   #399
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
Ran some Sims. Relatively cheap guys names that popped that I didn't consider previously.

Kevin Chappel T-45
Ryan Moore T-31
Matthew Wolff T-60
Denny McCarthy T-60
Ty Hatton T-5
Sung Kang T-11

I'll going light this week as a test run. We'll see how it goes.
After 1 round.

Not a terrible start to my modeling. However, Fleetwood was the top player in my model who might be the only golfer who got shutout of birdies in Round 1.
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Old 03-06-2020, 08:48 AM   #400
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Shot 2 141 yds to water, 38 ft 6 in. to hole

Classic Vaughn Taylor. Losing 5 strokes in 20 holes to the water
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