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Old 02-29-2020, 08:39 PM   #351
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

what are we ranking

overall tournament? showdown? weekend?

was losing basically everything yesterday, after today

Spoiler:


all cash h2h, double ups, etc. and had a couple lineups in the top 10 of the 100k for some of the day. crazy swings
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Old 02-29-2020, 08:44 PM   #352
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

that was an overall tournament, looking at your main line i'm guessing you disagree with it heavily lol, my dfs experience has been opposite of yours, had multiple top 10 placements at the end of day one then everyone imploded on day two

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Old 02-29-2020, 08:54 PM   #353
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

for cash i just try to focus on cut % why i'm always on low % guys like sabbatini and v taylor. super cheap and on my projections they always have mid 60s-70% of making the cut it seems. it seems every week i'm losing tons day 1-2, then day 3 i make a bunch, then day 4 add a lil more. it just went super crazy today because of Fleetwood's day and taking over first. I was surprised he was so low owned in cash games. Most have him at ~10% ownership. Everyone went Fowler for some reason.

tournament i'd probably focus more on upside, but i suck at those. It's on my todo list to develop a strategy but I still keep firing like an idiot.
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Old 03-01-2020, 10:33 AM   #354
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i've been reading everything i can find and most stuff i've found is "golfers who golf well make the cut more often" or "golfers who make the cut more often make the cut more often"

i'm wondering if it's really that simple or if their is more to it, the only bit of correlation (that's not simply checking to see if he's a good golfer) I've seen is in scrambling but it's somewhat weak and not very reliable over a small sample

if you're willing to discuss your methodology for finding cut makers I'd be all ears but understandable if you don't

would love to pick your brain on it, although i suck at it, i'm having fun with it and happy to help you in NHL in the unlikely event you are looking for an outside opinion on projections and meta
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Old 03-01-2020, 02:57 PM   #355
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I think it's like most sports. There's some people who just have less variance in their performance whether it's because they're more consistent putters or they're not as aggressive as other people (i.e., play for par). For cash I try to target people who have lower variance which tends to lead to higher cut score %. To calculate cut % I just simulate the tournament a bunch and calculate how many times they would have made the cut.

All I do is have some scores based on historical data, use stats to estimate player specific score distributions, adjust for course (some courses strikes gained off the tee will be more important others not so much, this is based on analysis of course history), and then simulate the tournament. For the original scores I use a modified strokes-gained formula. I used the original one from that Connolly paper and made modifications based on some flaws I feel their methodology had (and using more recent data too, their paper was 2008 I think) because they were only considering a simplified case.

Then do stupid things like not put your cash lineup into tournaments even though you do it every week but decided against it going forward and then tilt when you look at the standings and realize currently it would be top 15 in the 100k and would be winning the higher entry tournaments I entered it in every week before this one.

aka the usual
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Old 03-01-2020, 03:00 PM   #356
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

BTW if anyone wants the original Shots Gained paper:

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~stats/rendleman.pdf
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Old 03-01-2020, 07:23 PM   #357
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Was anybody else on team Sungjae ftw this week? Mission half finished on one of the young guys I was betting to break through frequently. Macintyre is up next.
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Old 03-01-2020, 07:37 PM   #358
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I had a bunch of Sungjae. Nice.

DK: 2-5 in H2H, but I had a cheapo lineup win a millimaker ticket. So, +128% value.

FD: 5-2 in H2H, but meh everywhere else. -31%

SD was just bad, but I'd done alright in the past month.

Finally a decent week.

My season long team has Im, Berger, McNealy, and a couple others that made the cut. Each week (as well as the season) has 2 competitions. Straight Cash (homey) and FedEx Cup Points. This week should vault me into a top-ish spot.
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Old 03-01-2020, 08:08 PM   #359
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

i'm always heavy on sungjae, matsuyama and kh lee, my model seems to have an asian bias

thanks for sharing that paper, reading now
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Old 03-01-2020, 09:11 PM   #360
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
6-4-0, 60% winning percentage

10 units wagered

+2.008, 20% return
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
[All plays are tournament match-ups]

Honda Classic

McNealy -101 vs. Henley

Berger -100 vs. Hovland

Cauley -101 vs. Glover

Oman Open

Pavon -108 vs. Wu

Norris +119 vs. Li -- tie
9-5-1, 63.3% winning percentage

15 units wagered

+3.998 units, 26.7% return
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:59 AM   #361
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Good week for me In Cash (Not a tournament player) Team consisted of: An, NeSmith, Horschel, Im, Schenk, English For 378 points.
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:23 PM   #362
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

[All plays are tournament match-ups]

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scheffler -108 vs. Niemann
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Old 03-02-2020, 05:35 PM   #363
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
BTW if anyone wants the original Shots Gained paper:

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~stats/rendleman.pdf
Sigs (may I call you Sigs?),

From where do you pull your data? Recently, PGA Tour's site has been giving me some errors.
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Old 03-02-2020, 09:46 PM   #364
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I just scrape from the PGA Tour site but it's horrible and slow for real time analysis.

I've had a ridiculous 18.53% ROI on full tournament match ups this year, so I hope by posting them I will lose tons and get that down. Here's what I have with corresponding RISK sizes.

Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Tommy Fleetwood - Bryson DeChambeau - Match-ups - Tommy Fleetwood Odds: -123 RISK: 0.64
Viktor Hovland - Abraham Ancer - Match-ups - Abraham Ancer Odds: -125 RISK: 1.04
Hideki Matsuyama - Adam Scott - Match-ups - Hideki Matsuyama Odds: -118 RISK: 0.81
Scottie Scheffler - Joaquin Niemann - Match-ups - Scottie Scheffler Odds: -115 RISK: 1.3
Charl Schwartzel - Ian Poulter - Match-ups - Ian Poulter Odds: -135 RISK: 2.28
Tony Finau - Jason Day - Match-ups - Tony Finau Odds: -103 RISK: 0.4
Henrik Stenson - Byeong Hun An - Match-ups - Byeong Hun An Odds: -108 RISK: 1.34

Qatar Masters:
Pablo Larrazabal - Jason Scrivener - Match-ups - Jason Scrivener Odds: -110 RISK: 1.11
Scott Jamieson - Rasmus Hojgaard - Match-ups - Scott Jamieson Odds: -118 RISK: 1.2
Min Woo Lee - Justin Harding - Match-ups - Justin Harding Odds: -104 RISK: 0.8
Alexander Levy - Clement Sordet - Match-ups - Alexander Levy Odds: -114 RISK: 0.25
George Coetzee - Jordan Smith - Match-ups - Jordan Smith Odds: -103 RISK: 0.42
Matthias Schwab - Joost Luiten - Match-ups - Matthias Schwab Odds: -108 RISK: 0.83
Martin Kaymer - Robert Macintyre - Match-ups - Robert Macintyre Odds: +100 RISK: 0.67
Romain Langasque - Nicolas Colsaerts - Match-ups - Romain Langasque Odds: -108 RISK: 0.67
Joost Luiten - Thomas Detry - Match-ups - Thomas Detry Odds: +114 RISK: 1.14
Mikko Korhonen - Eddie Pepperell - Match-ups - Mikko Korhonen Odds: -104 RISK: 0.3
Gavin Green - Ross Fisher - Match-ups - Gavin Green Odds: -108 RISK: 0.46
Alejandro Canizares - Matthieu Pavon - Match-ups - Matthieu Pavon Odds: -108 RISK: 0.41
Brandon Stone - Benjamin Hebert - Match-ups - Benjamin Hebert Odds: -133 RISK: 1.12
Paul Waring - Adri Arnaus - Match-ups - Paul Waring Odds: -135 RISK: 0.9
Thomas Pieters - Robert Macintyre - Match-ups - Robert Macintyre Odds: +100 RISK: 0.95

Are any of these good? Seem to have way too many on EURO golf and Qatar seems like a risk but lets get it.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:57 PM   #365
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was hoping for a time saver. Guess we're using similar stuff. Can't wait to read that article. Thanks for posting it.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:41 AM   #366
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

does anyone have API access to shotlink? it used to be open to the public but now you need permission as an academic

apparently most of the data they gather is not released publicly, which is why you need special permission to access it and only for academic purposes
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:43 AM   #367
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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does anyone have API access to shotlink? it used to be open to the public but now you need permission as an academic

apparently most of the data they gather is not released publicly, which is why you need special permission to access it and only for academic purposes
How do you request the data? I'm a high school Stats teacher. I might be able to get permission (which I'd obviously share).
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:13 AM   #368
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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How do you request the data? I'm a high school Stats teacher. I might be able to get permission (which I'd obviously share).
no idea, the trail runs cold at this point, i think you need to know someone personally to get access

https://registrations.pgatourhq.com/...shotlinkintel/

have no idea why they are so secretive

would definitely make for some interesting class subject matter even if not used for degen purposes on the side
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:27 AM   #369
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Why can't it be both?
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:58 AM   #370
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

but on a serious note, i took ap stats as a high school senior, it was the last of my formal mathematical education as i tested out in college

massive regret and i now wish remembered even one tenth of what i learned then - I'm often left thinking about how much more of an impact it would have left upon me if I saw some practical uses for it besides just trying to show the colleges i wanted to get into I could pass an AP exam
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:04 AM   #371
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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but on a serious note, i took ap stats as a high school senior, it was the last of my formal mathematical education as i tested out in college

massive regret and i now wish remembered even one tenth of what i learned then - I'm often left thinking about how much more of an impact it would have left upon me if I saw some practical uses for it besides just trying to show the colleges i wanted to get into I could pass an AP exam
I try so hard as a teacher to provide fun context, so I'm always looking up or collecting fun data. Today, we're testing hypotheses about breakfast cereal. Froot Loops, Apple Jacks, and Lucky Charms.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:10 AM   #372
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I try so hard as a teacher to provide fun context, so I'm always looking up or collecting fun data. Today, we're testing hypotheses about breakfast cereal. Froot Loops, Apple Jacks, and Lucky Charms.
that sounds way more fun than the abstract random stuff we were doing, the only time we mixed in real life was with polling to determine sample size and degree of accuracy etc - all of which i forgot

doing it then, i'd have no idea i'd eventually start applying some of these concepts for hobby projects because i could never view it that way

sounds like you got a good grasp on it

now you just need to bring in sigs to speak to them for a day how to calculate vig and determining if the bet is profitable
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:26 AM   #373
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

He can definitely teach me how to be profitable, too.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:43 AM   #374
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was just filling out a lineup to get a feel for how the build is going to go this week, and I almost entered a contest that costs 75x my intended entry fee. Glad it was a delayed green.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:40 AM   #375
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I was just filling out a lineup to get a feel for how the build is going to go this week, and I almost entered a contest that costs 75x my intended entry fee. Glad it was a delayed green.
i've done this too many times to count, sometimes it's a surprisingly happy result, other times not so much
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