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Old 02-18-2020, 03:52 PM   #326
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

The Mexico Championship

A. Ancer @ 51.0 (0.65 units) 20% 1-7
S.J.Im @ 51.0 (0.65 units) 20% 1-7

Ben An @ 81.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-7
B. Snedeker @81.0 (0.4 units) 20% 1-7

B. Todd @126.0 (0.3 units) 20% 1-7
C. Conners @126.0 (0.3 units) 20% 1-7

2.7 units total is a fairly conservative wager amount for me, not taking anyone in the 19-36 range this week. Ancer was added in last minute, but either way profit on any each way result.
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Old 02-19-2020, 06:26 AM   #327
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

ran my model, here are my generic and arbitrary rankings, i'll have this published in blog form tomorrow because i have so little faith in it i'll share it publicly whereas will never share hockey info etc etc so take this all with a grain of salt

bear in mind i'd rather be wrong about not playing the right guy than wrong by playing the wrong guy so euros who i have very little data on are severely punished in the model

tier 1
Rory McIlroy
Justin Thomas
Webb Simpson
Hideki Matsuyama

tier 2
Adam Scott
Jon Rahm
Dustin Johnson
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau
Collin Morikawa

tier 3
Marc Leishman
Paul Casey
Gary Woodland
Sungjae Im
Sergio Garcia
Corey Conners
Abraham Ancer
Matt Kuchar
Bubba Watson
Tommy Fleetwood

tier 4
Patrick Reed
Chez Reavie
Sebastian Munoz
Louis Oosthuizen
Byeong Hun An
Scottie Scheffler
Brandt Snedeker
Carlos Ortiz
Jordan Spieth
Kevin Kisner
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Billy Horschel
Lucas Glover

tier 5
Danny Willett
Tyrrell Hatton
Kevin Na
Jason Kokrak
Charles Howell III
Cameron Smith
Kurt Kitayama
Graeme McDowell
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sung Kang
Shane Lowry
Branden Grace
Lanto Griffin
Matt Wallace
Bernd Wiesberger
Lee Westwood
Erik van Rooyen
Francesco Molinari

tier 6
Robert MacIntyre
Jazz Janewattananond
Justin Harding
Mike Lorenzo-Vera
Brendon Todd
Shugo Imahira
Jorge Campillo
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Benjamin Hebert
Marcus Kinhult
Ryan Fox
Ryo Ishikawa
Shaun Norris
Lucas Herbert
Zander Lombard
Pablo Larrazabal
Scott Hend
Tae Hee Lee
Victor Perez
Matthias Schwab
Zach Murray
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Old 02-20-2020, 07:09 AM   #328
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

hey guys, what are your general thoughts on strokes gained? better yet, how do you feel about this variant of "true strokes gained"

https://datagolf.org/true-strokes-gained
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Old 02-20-2020, 09:15 AM   #329
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Interesting post Rickroll, I have Ancer/Im/Conners in your tier 3, but 51.0 on Ancer/Im and 126.0 on Conners. I would def agree that a lot of your euro players are undervalued.

I'm big on SGA this week, much easier greens than usual so our putt punters have a shot I think.

Tempted to add half the field to my line up this week, but one small addition

Jazz Janewattananond @ 170.0 (0.15 units) 25% 1-5

^Using a bet boost for this, normal price is 151.0 on ladbrokes.
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Old 02-20-2020, 09:36 AM   #330
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyan972 View Post
G'day all, Very sporadic poster on 2+2 but as i see theres some DFS golfers on here i might have to check in more often!

My Cashgame lineup for the WGC (so far and will probably have plenty of change ups between now and lock out)

Mcilroy
DeChambeau
Casey
Bezuidenhout
Munoz
Ortiz

Any thoughts would be appreciated


Edit: Also liked Perez +102 vs Hatton (first tournament since Oct last year coming off wrist surgery) in a Tournament h2h bet
Welcome!

Dechambeau is on my ban list, but I really like Perez > Hatton
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Old 02-20-2020, 10:27 AM   #331
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

yeah in a sports betting thread here I got dressed down and very rightly so for not accounting enough for data accumulated outside of PGA america, will adjust that going forward

finished building my new optimizer just now

cash line
Corey Conners
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Jon Rahm
Webb Simpson
Sungjae Im

here's my overall player pool in order of exposure - only 10x lines (may throw in some more if there is overlay but that's unlikely as the mme tends to fill)

some of these guys are more salary than desire, yahoo has pretty weird pricing at times

Hideki Matsuyama
Corey Conners
Sergio Garcia
Webb Simpson
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Jon Rahm
Sungjae Im
Bubba Watson
Adam Scott
Justin Thomas
Jordan Spieth
Bryson DeChambeau
Byeong Hun An

Last edited by rickroll; 02-20-2020 at 10:39 AM.
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Old 02-20-2020, 12:00 PM   #332
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I was keen on Hideki, but my low price point was 23.0. I'll be following Morikawa closely this week, been keen on him for a while, but he's blowing up randomly at the moment.

It's time for Im to get it done soon really , we've seen a decent correction in his price at least!

Should be an interesting week, gl everyone
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Old 02-20-2020, 01:10 PM   #333
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Wow, I'm literally the only person without Rory in a bunch of my cash groups, looks like I'll be rooting against him it seems

Luckily the late slate meant degens were awake to last minute reg and thus I wasn't tempted by overlay, just have about 400 in cash and 200 in gpp. But what sucks is if I lose I'll be upset but now if I win I'll be even angrier for not playing with more... Golf DFS is so fun to model but the worst sweat because I just root against guys I don't have instead of enjoying it
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Old 02-20-2020, 07:12 PM   #334
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah, it's always the risk in events like these with Rory / Thomas, that they're just unbeatable on the week.

Ben An's putting is actually hilarious at this stage. 3 putted twice from less than 2 feet. Conners missed an 18 incher too
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Old 02-20-2020, 07:21 PM   #335
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

An opened with a 4-putt.
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Old 02-24-2020, 03:58 AM   #336
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Great week in Cash games but the Perez bet was finished real early, he did rally well after his first round blow up.

Onto the Honda and its a week of misfits for mine, but the players im interested in so far for cash games are:

Fleetwood
Horschel
Im
Westwood
Woodland
Berger
W.Clark
Fowler
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Old 02-24-2020, 05:05 AM   #337
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
2020 Results

6-3-0, 67% winning percentage

9 units wagered

+3.008, 33.4% return
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
[All plays are tournament match-ups]

WGC Mexico Championship

Oosthuizen -108 vs. Casey
6-4-0, 60% winning percentage

10 units wagered

+2.008, 20% return
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Old 02-24-2020, 09:53 PM   #338
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

[All plays are tournament match-ups]

Honda Classic

McNealy -101 vs. Henley

Berger -100 vs. Hovland

Cauley -101 vs. Glover

Oman Open

Pavon -108 vs. Wu

Norris +119 vs. Li
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Old 02-24-2020, 10:49 PM   #339
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyan972 View Post
Great week in Cash games but the Perez bet was finished real early, he did rally well after his first round blow up.

Onto the Honda and its a week of misfits for mine, but the players im interested in so far for cash games are:

Fleetwood
Horschel
Im
Westwood
Woodland
Berger
W.Clark
Fowler
As a W.Clark Fanboi, I can't endorse him any time soon. He's been striking the ball like azz and only gaining strokes putting.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:08 AM   #340
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
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As a W.Clark Fanboi, I can't endorse him any time soon. He's been striking the ball like azz and only gaining strokes putting.
Im with you after having a deeper look, and pivoted off him and went with NeSmith

Current line up is:

An
Horschel
Im
Palmer (probably finds a way out of the lineup)
Stuard
NeSmith

Happy with 4.5/6 players for cash but not sold on Horschel (gonna be chalky coming off 2 nice weeks) and Palmer

Last edited by kyan972; 02-25-2020 at 12:10 AM. Reason: Lineup added
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Old 02-26-2020, 03:54 AM   #341
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I've fallen out with the Koreans, as has my bank account.

I think i'm actually taking this week off, just no fun when getting hammered. Glad I've been posting all the results though and I've had a reason behind every decision, they just haven't been great.

Can never learn without accountability, as depressing as it is to update this profit count:

weekly profit -2.7 units
total profit +14.55
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Old 02-26-2020, 08:56 PM   #342
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

My cash lineup on DK is a mix of good wind players and guys who are playing well coming in:

Hovland, Lowry, Poulter, Palmer, Bradley, Nesmith

On FD:
Lowry, An, Conners, McNealy, Berger, Poston

On SD:
P-Rodgers (1.4x), Stanley (1.45x), Knox (1.25), Norlander (1.4), McNealy (1.35), and Mark Anderson (1.5)
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Old 02-26-2020, 09:19 PM   #343
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
My cash lineup on DK is a mix of good wind players and guys who are playing well coming in:

Hovland, Lowry, Poulter, Palmer, Bradley, Nesmith

On FD:
Lowry, An, Conners, McNealy, Berger, Poston

On SD:
P-Rodgers (1.4x), Stanley (1.45x), Knox (1.25), Norlander (1.4), McNealy (1.35), and Mark Anderson (1.5)


Good luck bud, I've ended up on An, NeSmith, Horschel, Im, Schenk, English for my DK lineup
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:16 AM   #344
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Does anyone bet 1st round leaders ? Any angle here?
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Old 02-27-2020, 12:52 PM   #345
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Wyndham Clark is 9th in SG-APP and 2nd in SG-T2G while he shot 68. What is happening?
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:13 PM   #346
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

got 6/6 through with the squad

An, Cauley, Fleetwood, Harman, Sabbataini, V Taylor on DK

Fleetwood, Woodland, An, V. Taylor, Harman, Sabbatini on FD

and still losing everything
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:02 PM   #347
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

On DK, my best is 5/6.

Im, Vegas, Lowry, McNealy, Berger, and Kyle Stanley


Same on FD.

Lowry, An, McNealy, Poston, Berger, and Conners

Same on SD.

KH Lee, Hubbard, Mark Anderson, Cam Davis, Long, and Grillo





It doesn't have to be a bad week since some big names MCed.
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:20 PM   #348
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

oh man, what a bloodbath today

had multiple top 10 lines in day one in the gpps, was basically in first in every cash group i was in

then today happened

furyk/rose/woodland/kh lee/varner/redman were my cash line

really upset because was supposed to fleetwood but had issues with the csv and had to manually edit some of the lines minutes before lock and accidentally clicked rose instead fleetwood because they are same price and next to each other and didn't have time to notice or fix

taking a hard stance of Lee and Redman looked genius at the end of day one and then apparently redman must have gone for a swim today
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:29 PM   #349
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

every h2h except one (of course it's the 1k one) has less than 6/6, so tomorrow hopefully will be making money

what do you puttndits think about these Omar Open to win odds, seem a lil high

Samooja +850
Gallacher +800
Colsaerets +900

I'm all in on all of them
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Old 02-28-2020, 11:33 PM   #350
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

three guys i never heard of, my tiny pond of yahoo don't do non pga

sigs just curious how your own system would have compared to this - i meant to share it hear but forgot about early start time and wanted to tweak it first

Gary Woodland
Tommy Fleetwood
Russell Knox
Sungjae Im
Joaquin Niemann
Jim Furyk
Corey Conners
Rickie Fowler
Emiliano Grillo
Daniel Berger
Harold Varner III
Harris English
Shane Lowry
Byeong Hun An
Billy Horschel
Brian Harman
Brooks Koepka
Justin Rose
Tom Hoge
Bud Cauley
Louis Oosthuizen
Russell Henley
Nick Watney
Brian Stuard
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Tringale
Doc Redman
J.T. Poston
Vaughn Taylor
Ian Poulter
Luke List
Chesson Hadley
Keegan Bradley
Kevin Streelman
Harry Higgs
Matthew NeSmith
Brendan Steele
Bronson Burgoon
Ryan Palmer
Talor Gooch
Kyle Stanley
Sam Ryder
Zach Johnson
Adam Schenk
Sepp Straka
Adam Long
Lucas Glover
Cameron Percy
Kurt Kitayama
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Jason Dufner
Lee Westwood
Stewart Cink
Erik van Rooyen
Xinjun Zhang
D.J. Trahan
Matt Wallace
Jhonattan Vegas
Rory Sabbatini
Tim Wilkinson
Maverick McNealy
Scott Stallings
Denny McCarthy
Hudson Swafford
Cameron Davis
Ryan Armour
Henrik Norlander
Kevin Tway
Austin Cook
Scott Harrington
Danny Lee
Fabian Gomez
Rob Oppenheim
Tom Lewis
Matt Jones
Mark Hubbard
Matthew Wolff
Joseph Bramlett
Ted Potter, Jr.
Dylan Frittelli
Brice Garnett
Keith Mitchell
David Hearn
Richy Werenski
Wyndham Clark
Patrick Rodgers
Brian Gay
Tyler McCumber
Chris Kirk
Chase Seiffert
Aaron Wise
Mark Anderson
Wes Roach
Scott Brown
John Huh
Tyler Duncan
Sam Burns
Luke Donald
Michael Thompson
Josh Teater
Ryo Ishikawa
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Bo Hoag
Kramer Hickok
Robby Shelton
Matt Every
Peter Malnati
Grayson Murray
Robert Streb
Michael Gligic
Jimmy Walker
Beau Hossler
Hank Lebioda
Jamie Lovemark
Si Woo Kim
Roger Sloan
Zac Blair
Lucas Bjerregaard
Charl Schwartzel
Sebastian Cappelen
C.T. Pan
Vincent Whaley
Sean O'Hair
Padraig Harrington
Doug Ghim
Mackenzie Hughes
Camilo Villegas
Chris Baker
Brandon Hagy
Vijay Singh
Arjun Atwal
Chris Stroud
Patton Kizzire
Davis Love III
Jim Herman
Seung-yul Noh
Greg Chalmers
Justin Bertsch
Satoshi Kodaira
Martin Trainer
Bo Van Pelt
Hayden Buckley
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