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Old 02-10-2020, 12:45 AM   #276
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I just checked too and that ROI on Cash this week includes about 1k in tournament losses too. Mostly single entry.

Maybe I'll just MME during the 1 million instead of blowing all my cash winnings every week.
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Old 02-10-2020, 12:52 AM   #277
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I just checked too and that ROI on Cash this week includes about 1k in tournament losses too. Mostly single entry.

Maybe I'll just MME during the 1 million instead of blowing all my cash winnings every week.
Yeah I've found success in golf gpp very elusive, worst part is I started really hot when Yahoo first added it too
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Old 02-10-2020, 06:47 PM   #278
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Getting battered here, so if any of you guys love money get these guys layed!

Genesis Invitational

T. Finau @ 26.0 (1.4 units) 20% 1-8
H. Matsuyama @ 29.0 (1.3 units) 20% 1-8
J. Spieth @ 46.0 (0.7 units) 20% 1-8
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:19 PM   #279
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'll report back tomorrow. I plan on stat crunching.
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:16 AM   #280
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Genesis Invitational

no action
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Old 02-11-2020, 06:50 PM   #281
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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I'll report back tomorrow. I plan on stat crunching.
Okay. I pulled some data from the PGA Tour website on all the SG Categories (weighted differently), Avg Proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 (since all the dog-legs reduce the driver use), birdie rate, bogey rate (since scrambling is a thing here), and SG-Diff.

Guys I like more than their DK price would indicate (thus making them a solid GPP play, IMO):

Abraham Ancer
Sunjae Im (obvs)
Ryan Palmer
Corey Conners
Joel Dahmen
Nick Watney
Denny McCarthy
Carlos Ortiz
Emiliano Grillo

I'll delve more and tinker with weightings while at my kids' basketball games.
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:13 PM   #282
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Guys I'm fading that are relatively high priced on DK:

Dustin Johnson (10k)
Jason Day (8.8k)
Jordan Spieth (8.4k)
Phil Mickelson (8.3k)
Tiger Woods (10.4k)
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Old 02-11-2020, 09:40 PM   #283
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
Okay. I pulled some data from the PGA Tour website on all the SG Categories (weighted differently), Avg Proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 (since all the dog-legs reduce the driver use), birdie rate, bogey rate (since scrambling is a thing here), and SG-Diff.

Guys I like more than their DK price would indicate (thus making them a solid GPP play, IMO):

Abraham Ancer
Sunjae Im (obvs)
Ryan Palmer
Corey Conners
Joel Dahmen
Nick Watney
Denny McCarthy
Carlos Ortiz
Emiliano Grillo

I'll delve more and tinker with weightings while at my kids' basketball games.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Precept24 View Post
Guys I'm fading that are relatively high priced on DK:

Dustin Johnson (10k)
Jason Day (8.8k)
Jordan Spieth (8.4k)
Phil Mickelson (8.3k)
Tiger Woods (10.4k)
My laptop with my pga model is getting a motherboard replaced but this passes my own eye test

I may still play DJ because lol Yahoo pricing currently have Im & Grillo in my cash lineup dummy

Going to go over everything tonight and make some lines
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Old 02-12-2020, 01:27 PM   #284
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Nick Watney, Carlos Ortiz, and Joel Dahmen are starting to look good.
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Old 02-12-2020, 04:24 PM   #285
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I like Cantlay this week
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Old 02-13-2020, 06:41 AM   #286
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Currently debating between

Rory/Day/Grillo/Rahm/Wolff/homa in cash
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:08 AM   #287
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Thoughts? Here are the rest but still tinkering

If you see any leaks please chime in


Especially unsure of where to go in cash
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:55 AM   #288
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

whoops this one locked early. was gonna look at it in the morning but rolling with this on DK (% from 250 double up)



and Rory/Morikawa/Im/Scheffler/Niemann/Conners on FD

Scheffler, Niemann, and Conners all low owned so whoops

and showdown lineup
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:12 PM   #289
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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whoops this one locked early. was gonna look at it in the morning but rolling with this on DK (% from 250 double up)



and Rory/Morikawa/Im/Scheffler/Niemann/Conners on FD

Scheffler, Niemann, and Conners all low owned so whoops

and showdown lineup
Looks like we'll both be hoping for a bad outing from Bubba

Got caught with my pants down, a few minutes before lock a bunch of $109+ contests were basically empty so playing a bit more than I'm comfortable with in my weakest sport by a wide margin, got nearly $2k out there

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...7093/110638800
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:46 PM   #290
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

You know I'm fading Bubba, but only for like $100.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:00 PM   #291
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

3% scheffler dominating. Everyone else not so much. Golf is the best.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:24 PM   #292
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Day 1 didn't go all that well. Ancer is hurting me. Champ is killing y'all. Day 2 will be better.
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Old 02-14-2020, 06:39 AM   #293
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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You know I'm fading Bubba, but only for like $100.
For golf I honestly go in with that goal each week but then keep seeing weak contests or ones that likely won't fill and just go on a shopping spree.

Golf tends to overlay more because degens aren't up early enough.
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Old 02-14-2020, 03:28 PM   #294
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Haha. I am. I'm a high school math (passion is Stats obviously) with 3 kids whose schedule drives mine, so I'm up at 4:30 to get a workout in before I leave for work.
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Old 02-14-2020, 04:42 PM   #295
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ancer did some decent work today. Always a shot when you get them through the cut in these tournaments where the winning score is -12 to -15.

Pretty meh stuff from Spieth and Finau today, but at least they're through. Hideki run one time?
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Old 02-14-2020, 05:09 PM   #296
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ancer bounced back nicely. Watney was on a similar path, when he crumbled his last 6-holes.
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:16 PM   #297
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Got 3 people at E after 11 on DK and with expected cut looking like +1 I could get 6/6 through which would be amazing after yesterday.

FD not getting Niemann thru unless there's a miracle and could lose Im
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:51 PM   #298
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Gonna get shut out on DK with all my Justin Thomas and Watney love.

Got a chance to get 6/6 on FD, but gonna need Sungjae, Xander and Palmer to hold it together.

On Superdraft, I was 1/2 in the $5 contest a few hours ago. My best lineup will only get 4/6. I'm really pulling for a Joseph Bramlett and Sung Kang run, as I am the sole owner of them.
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:00 PM   #299
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

jumped the gun since now all 3 are at +1. at least we faded bubba?
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:44 PM   #300
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

lol need corey conners to make 40 yard putt and matsuyama to birdie 18 now

golf is the worst
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