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Old 01-31-2020, 11:30 PM   #226
rickroll
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

5/6 in cash line

Other 9
6/6 1x
5/6 5x
4/6 2x
3/6 1x

Everything but the 3/6 line is min cashing

Kind of tilting because I normally do 10x+ every gpp but this week the big ones filled early

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...7963/109862616 got 4x in the top ten so could have been a massive week if I regged everything earlier like I normally do

Sigs line didn't pan out but I'm 100% his process is better than my own so will happily ride any future suggestions you have going forward
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Old 02-01-2020, 06:04 PM   #227
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Horschel starting to implode + Simpson Ace is tanking me. Got into T100 in the $5 100k before that.
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Old 02-01-2020, 06:08 PM   #228
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yup. Worst possible day of golf imaginable.
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Old 02-02-2020, 10:21 AM   #229
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
Ok, back in the saddle.

[All plays are tournament match-ups]

WMO

Na (2.04) vs Reavie
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
Adding in the Saudi International:

Perez (1.934) vs. Sergio Garcia
Perez (1.917) vs. Stenson
Paratore (2.15) vs Horsfield
Ancer (1.934) vs. Lowry
4-1-0, 80% winning percentage

5 units wagered

+3.041 units, 60.82% return
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Old 02-02-2020, 10:49 AM   #230
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

What do you guys think about Finau +210 to Win? I have him at ~36% to win making it a 1% or so play at half kelly.
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Old 02-02-2020, 11:53 AM   #231
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Is it worth the risk to only gain 1%? 1% is positive, right. IMHO, +EV means yes in terms of Sklansky bucks.


Update on my sweats.

My DK 6/6 is in 903rd (at one point it was top 600), while my 4/6 is 1172nd (2x).
My FD 6/6 is in 1129th (at one point it was top 50 and 10x-ing), and is now only at 2x.
My SD 5/6 lineups that were at 1/5/7 are now at 4/6/23.

#oof
#TurnAroundSunday
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:46 PM   #232
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I'm getting crushed too, got 1/2 an each way with Ancer, but need a bit of a sun run from Morikawa to top 8.
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Old 02-02-2020, 02:53 PM   #233
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

betting on Finau to win golf tournaments is rarely a good idea
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Old 02-02-2020, 05:56 PM   #234
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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betting on Finau to win golf tournaments is rarely a good idea
I stand corrected. looks like Finau is getting the first big win of his career. maybe this will open the floodgates for him.
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Old 02-02-2020, 05:58 PM   #235
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

for the first 10 holes none of his approach shots were even close. no idea how he did it
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Old 02-02-2020, 07:06 PM   #236
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

imagine missing a 9 foot putt to win

tony finau is the best
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Old 02-02-2020, 07:16 PM   #237
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Poor Tony, actually feel pretty bad for him
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Old 02-02-2020, 07:16 PM   #238
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

heartbreaking for Finau.

didn't catch the live odds, he had to be 1.05 or less after 15
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Old 02-02-2020, 08:20 PM   #239
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I run so bad. Such a bad weekend.

I 2x my FD 6/6, but went -80%.

I only went -73.33% on DK.

On SD, I kept tumbling down the leaderboard. I got 3/22/47 and went +150%.

Welp. We keep plugging. On to Pebble.
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Old 02-02-2020, 08:50 PM   #240
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I think I saw 1.07, but have seen loads of those go south to be fair!

I also run bad, or probably more aptly am a huge fish

weekly profit - 4.7 units

total profit + 19.85 units

Will probably only fire one tour and keep it a bit smaller while I find my feet again and re-assess a few things.
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Old 02-03-2020, 09:58 AM   #241
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

They really didn't waste much time slashing Max Homa's price after a run last week and T10 at the AT&T last year
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Old 02-03-2020, 04:59 PM   #242
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

AT&T Pro Am

B. Snedeker @25.0 (1.6 units) 20% 1-8
R. Knox @51.0 (0.8 units) 20% 1-8
T. Hoge @67.0 (0.6 units) 20% 1-8
K. Na @71.0 (0.6 units) 20% 1-8
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:32 PM   #243
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

[All plays are tournament match-ups]

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Berger (1.917) vs. Spieth

Fitzpatrick (1.925) vs. Kuchar


ISPS Vic Open

Scrivener (2.05) vs. Li

[Note: L. De Jager (2.2) vs. Horsfield was very close to an official play.]
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:45 PM   #244
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar View Post
4-1-0, 80% winning percentage

5 units wagered

+3.041 units, 60.82% return
Full disclosure: I lost one unit at The Farmers Insurance Open (Woodland < Finau), but neglected to post the play itt. I'm updating my yearly total itt for clarity:

4-2-0, 67% winning percentage

6 units wagered

+2.041, 34% return
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Old 02-05-2020, 08:37 PM   #245
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

what about for cash

FD
Cantlay/Casey/Tringale/V. Taylor/Glover/Wise
DK
Cantlay/Noren/Knox/Glover/Wise/Tringale

Balanced enough to get 6/6?

and Yahoo.com

D Johnson/Noren/Grace/Berger/Wise/Hoge?
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Old 02-05-2020, 09:12 PM   #246
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

I did a bunch of T20's. I maxed but if I scaled this is how it would go

Harrington +1500 0.25u
Schenk +800 0.38u
Trahan +800 0.32u
Baddeley +900 0.36u
Garnett +900 0.17u
Stricker +900 0.31u
Varner III +600 0.42u
Matt Jones +600 0.35u
Wise +500 0.39u
Tringale +700 0.57u

and one Top 5

Tringale +2500 0.12u

I'm big on Tringale this week.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:26 PM   #247
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
what about for cash

FD
Cantlay/Casey/Tringale/V. Taylor/Glover/Wise
DK
Cantlay/Noren/Knox/Glover/Wise/Tringale

Balanced enough to get 6/6?

and Yahoo.com

D Johnson/Noren/Grace/Berger/Wise/Hoge?
Making lineups now, will toss one of that one in there and if there are profits I'm splitting them but last I checked we're still in makeup

I like it a lot, I'm all at DJ because everyone is like "zomg he sat on a plane earlier in the week" so his ownership will be low without much merit.

I'm currently on tringdale, Glover, noren, Casey, Grace, Hoge for cash but will probably tinker before lock
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:09 PM   #248
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Sigs found a little overlay for your line
https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...4067/110364214

And here's my cash line, some dickweed capped it with seconds to go but still a pretty weak field considering the stakes, it seems above and beyond and bric are the only "nosebleed" regs left on the Yahoo DFS golf streets
https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...4064/110358201
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Old 02-06-2020, 12:21 PM   #249
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Lets get this money

Wise may have been an unwise choice

2.4% in the $100 double up (but 4.9 in the $250!) on DK

and only 1.5% on FD. Glover a whole 2.9% on FD but 13.3% on DK.

I feel since Wise is a cheap player that's not too bad. I've noticed a lot of people go around the same low people who are recommended on podcasts (e.g., Doc Redman).

way too over the field on schenk in tournaments. one time.

Spoiler:
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Old 02-06-2020, 02:00 PM   #250
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yeah a major reason why I pursued golf is I noticed most people are constructing lineups based on podcasts and the podcasts/touts are mostly just broadcasting noise

Problem is the more work I put into it all the more I understand why they love that noise because noise is at least tangible.

My laptop with my pga model is in the shop right now (fried motherboard) and sadly didn't back it up or host online so been mostly eyeballing based on mostly on players model liked in general

Very pleased to see despite my break even success in DFS it's usually in agreement with everyone here so that tells me I'm either on the right track or following the same false paths people much smarter than I fell for
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