Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread - Page 73 - Sports Betting

Friendly tip:

Check if your book has props for the Payne's Valley exhibition. Then take a look at the design of this course, especially the early fairways. Looks like a money printer

Quote

09-22-2020 , 12:34 PM

#1802

navyvol1998

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 109

Aside from Tiger having homefield advantage I'm just not sure I see much value in Tiger/Thomas -120 or Mc/Rose +100.

Quote

09-22-2020 , 06:50 PM

#1803

etothemc2

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,317

Asking the if pros will hit fairways on this course was like asking if Steph Curry can hit 3s at a middle school gym. Grossly under priced

Quote

10-07-2020 , 11:21 PM

#1804

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

where did everybody go? next week Shadow Creek which should be pretty good.

anyways this is what I got for this week.

.....name.... win_perc... fair_win_odds .... top_20_perc... make_cut_perc

47959 bryson dechambeau 0.1079 827 0.6690 0.8898
29221 webb simpson 0.0607 1547 0.6093 0.8780
32839 hideki matsuyama 0.0506 1875 0.5008 0.7992
56278 matthew wolff 0.0496 1918 0.4696 0.7847
25364 paul casey 0.0403 2383 0.5249 0.8408
35450 patrick cantlay 0.0349 2764 0.4697 0.7911
32102 rickie fowler 0.0334 2890 0.4250 0.7543
46046 scottie scheffler 0.0288 3372 0.4035 0.7486
50525 collin morikawa 0.0273 3566 0.4412 0.7972
26329 louis oosthuizen 0.0238 4095 0.3667 0.7293
21209 sergio garcia 0.0238 4109 0.4070 0.7580
47504 sam burns 0.0151 6514 0.2656 0.6578
34099 harris english 0.0146 6768 0.3123 0.7199
30944 jason kokrak 0.0144 6825 0.3124 0.7209
28089 jason day 0.0138 7146 0.3320 0.7180
33141 keegan bradley 0.0138 7125 0.3069 0.7071
45486 joaquin niemann 0.0134 7385 0.3158 0.7198
45526 abraham ancer 0.0126 7837 0.2881 0.6992
27644 brian harman 0.0124 7991 0.2678 0.6706
39971 sungjae im 0.0122 8097 0.3272 0.7461
27214 kevin streelman 0.0115 8611 0.2401 0.6200
27129 luke list 0.0110 9024 0.2510 0.6418
47483 will zalatoris 0.0110 9024 0.3398 0.7604
31646 emiliano grillo 0.0107 9263 0.2822 0.7124
37455 si woo kim 0.0102 9704 0.2280 0.6252
26476 chez reavie 0.0100 9860 0.2680 0.6648
33948 byeong hun an 0.0099 9981 0.2376 0.6230
34098 russell henley 0.0099 10021 0.2732 0.6889
23108 matt kuchar 0.0096 10317 0.2562 0.6656
35658 kristoffer ventura 0.0094 10493 0.2587 0.6536
45157 cameron davis 0.0090 11011 0.2614 0.6844
48822 sebastian munoz 0.0086 11528 0.2188 0.6337
37189 harold varner iii 0.0081 12276 0.2512 0.6724
29518 brendan steele 0.0080 12400 0.2221 0.6386
52372 cameron champ 0.0080 12463 0.2113 0.6257
49960 sepp straka 0.0072 13789 0.1814 0.5723
35461 beau hossler 0.0067 14781 0.1676 0.5654
24024 zach johnson 0.0067 14781 0.2612 0.7060
27649 brandt snedeker 0.0063 15824 0.1984 0.6190
23320 ryan palmer 0.0061 16347 0.1596 0.5149
39067 mj daffue 0.0060 16456 0.1458 0.5352
12716 charley hoffman 0.0058 17261 0.1958 0.5996
21961 charles howell iii 0.0050 19741 0.2068 0.6304
25396 kevin na 0.0050 19900 0.1621 0.5465
49964 aaron wise 0.0048 20908 0.1952 0.6244
30110 kyle stanley 0.0048 20908 0.2122 0.6538
36699 patrick rodgers 0.0047 21268 0.1501 0.5401
34076 joel dahmen 0.0047 21086 0.1574 0.5432
40042 tyler mccumber 0.0047 21086 0.1444 0.5146
56762 will gordon 0.0047 21268 0.1388 0.5085

Quote

10-08-2020 , 12:42 AM

#1805

El Sueno

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 69

Is there a way to access closing lines for tournament matchups for each event played this year? I'm a total scraping newb and just have lines data from when I run my parsehub projects but this usually is done Monday night or sometime Tuesday.

My model is pretty simple, but has been doing pretty well post-COVID so I would like to compare my odds vs closing but don't have the data. My default assumption is I'm sun-running but trying to measure CLV could help confirm/reject that I'm just a luckbox. If anyone has this data or could point me in a direction of how to possibly find this I would really appreciate it!

Quote

10-08-2020 , 05:06 AM

#1806

Dreadnaught

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,875

my model which consists of just animals or phonetic animal noises calculates wolf wolf

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 10-08-2020 at 05:07 AM. Reason: but yes hope everyone comes back soon!

Quote

10-08-2020 , 10:10 AM

#1807

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Sueno

Not sure how easy they are to pull, and the Pinny data is probably full of errors, but the Don Best archives have them for Pinny/BOL/5Dimes.

Quote

10-08-2020 , 12:13 PM

#1808

El Sueno

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 69

Thanks Iowa!

Quote

10-09-2020 , 04:55 AM

#1809

Precept24

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 8,605

@Adrenocromo

Haven't heard from Rickroll in a while, but I'm a teacher and am busier than I've ever been.

I miss this thread and having time to hang out here.

Quote

10-10-2020 , 01:18 AM

#1810

etothemc2

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,317

Using CODE tags

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adrenocromo

where did everybody go? next week Shadow Creek which should be pretty good.

anyways this is what I got for this week.

.....name.... win_perc... fair_win_odds .... top_20_perc... make_cut_perc

Code:

47959 	bryson de	0.1079 	827 	0.6690 	0.8898
29221 	webb simpson 	0.0607 	1547 	0.6093 	0.8780
32839 	hideki matsuya 	0.0506 	1875 	0.5008 	0.7992
56278 	matthew wolff 	0.0496 	1918 	0.4696 	0.7847
25364 	paul casey 	0.0403 	2383 	0.5249 	0.8408
35450 	patrick cantla 	0.0349 	2764 	0.4697 	0.7911
32102 	rickie fowler 	0.0334 	2890 	0.4250 	0.7543
46046 	scottie scheffl	0.0288 	3372 	0.4035 	0.7486
50525 	collin morikaw 	0.0273 	3566 	0.4412 	0.7972
26329 	louis oosthuiz 	0.0238 	4095 	0.3667 	0.7293
21209 	sergio garcia 	0.0238 	4109 	0.4070 	0.7580
47504 	sam burns 	0.0151 	6514 	0.2656 	0.6578
34099 	harris english 	0.0146 	6768 	0.3123 	0.7199
30944 	jason kokrak 	0.0144 	6825 	0.3124 	0.7209
28089 	jason day 	0.0138 	7146 	0.3320 	0.7180
33141 	keegan bradley 	0.0138 	7125 	0.3069 	0.7071
45486 	joaquin nieman	0.0134 	7385 	0.3158 	0.7198
45526 	abraham ancer 	0.0126 	7837 	0.2881 	0.6992
27644 	brian harman 	0.0124 	7991 	0.2678 	0.6706
39971 	sungjae im 	0.0122 	8097 	0.3272 	0.7461
27214 	kevin streelman	0.0115 	8611 	0.2401 	0.6200
27129 	luke list 	0.0110 	9024 	0.2510 	0.6418
47483 	will zalatoris 	0.0110 	9024 	0.3398 	0.7604
31646 	emiliano grill 	0.0107 	9263 	0.2822 	0.7124
37455 	si woo kim 	0.0102 	9704 	0.2280 	0.6252
26476 	chez reavie 	0.0100 	9860 	0.2680 	0.6648
33948 	byeong hun an 	0.0099 	9981 	0.2376 	0.6230
34098 	russell henley 	0.0099 	10021 	0.2732 	0.6889
23108 	matt kuchar 	0.0096 	10317 	0.2562 	0.6656
35658 	kristoffer vent	0.0094 	10493 	0.2587 	0.6536
45157 	cameron davis 	0.0090 	11011 	0.2614 	0.6844
48822 	sebastian muno	0.0086 	11528 	0.2188 	0.6337
37189 	harold varner  	0.0081 	12276 	0.2512 	0.6724
29518 	brendan steele 	0.0080 	12400 	0.2221 	0.6386
52372 	cameron champ 	0.0080 	12463 	0.2113 	0.6257
49960 	sepp straka 	0.0072 	13789 	0.1814 	0.5723
35461 	beau hossler 	0.0067 	14781 	0.1676 	0.5654
24024 	zach johnson 	0.0067 	14781 	0.2612 	0.7060
27649 	brandt snede 	0.0063 	15824 	0.1984 	0.6190
23320 	ryan palmer 	0.0061 	16347 	0.1596 	0.5149
39067 	mj daffue 	0.0060 	16456 	0.1458 	0.5352
12716 	charley hoffm	0.0058 	17261 	0.1958 	0.5996
21961 	charles howel 	0.0050 	19741 	0.2068 	0.6304
25396 	kevin na 	0.0050 	19900 	0.1621 	0.5465
49964 	aaron wise 	0.0048 	20908 	0.1952 	0.6244
30110 	kyle stanley 	0.0048 	20908 	0.2122 	0.6538
36699 	patrick rodge 	0.0047 	21268 	0.1501 	0.5401
34076 	joel dahmen 	0.0047 	21086 	0.1574 	0.5432
40042 	tyler mccumber 	0.0047 	21086 	0.1444 	0.5146
56762 	will gordon 	0.0047 	21268 	0.1388 	0.5085

Quote

10-11-2020 , 07:44 AM

#1811

BBB624

banned

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 1,389

Just took a shot with Brian Harman going into Round 4. Currently 2 back and got him at +1088.

Quote

10-13-2020 , 03:08 PM

#1812

El Sueno

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 69

Since Adrenocromo is posting his win% figured could be useful to see where we differ. Mine probably suck but looking to improve ofc. Any feedback welcome

Jon Rahm 46970 7.19%
Xander Schauffele 48081 6.76%
Rory McIlroy 28237 6.66%
Justin Thomas 33448 6.66%
Patrick Cantlay 35450 3.93%
Hideki Matsuyama 32839 3.09%
Brooks Koepka 36689 3.05%
Matthew Wolff 56278 2.74%
Brendon Todd 30927 2.51%
Collin Morikawa 50525 2.10%
Tommy Fleetwood 30911 1.98%
Louis Oosthuizen 26329 1.85%
Viktor Hovland 46717 1.83%
Justin Rose 22405 1.82%
Scottie Scheffler 46046 1.77%
Rickie Fowler 32102 1.74%
Paul Casey 25364 1.66%
Ryan Palmer 23320 1.56%
Gary Woodland 31323 1.56%
Harris English 34099 1.53%
Tyrrell Hatton 34363 1.51%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 40098 1.45%
Daniel Berger 40026 1.40%
Billy Horschel 29420 1.33%
Sungjae Im 39971 1.31%
Abraham Ancer 45526 1.28%
Jason Kokrak 30944 1.22%
Matt Kuchar 23108 1.11%
Kevin Kisner 29478 1.09%
Jason Day 28089 1.08%
Bubba Watson 25804 1.03%
Kevin Streelman 27214 0.97%
Sergio Garcia 21209 0.96%
Kevin Na 25396 0.93%
Russell Henley 34098 0.91%
Sebastián Muñoz 48822 0.85%
Brian Harman 27644 0.80%
Joaquin Niemann 45486 0.79%
Talor Gooch 46402 0.79%
Corey Conners 39997 0.77%
Shane Lowry 33204 0.76%
Ian Poulter 24138 0.74%
Jordan Spieth 34046 0.73%
Mackenzie Hughes 35506 0.73%
Adam Hadwin 33399 0.70%
Adam Long 35449 0.65%
Cameron Smith 35891 0.62%
Alex Noren 27349 0.61%
Keegan Bradley 33141 0.61%
Byeong Hun An 33948 0.60%
Brendan Steele 29518 0.56%
Si Woo Kim 37455 0.55%
Joel Dahmen 34076 0.52%
Lanto Griffin 35310 0.50%
Dylan Frittelli 29970 0.47%
Danny Lee 29926 0.45%
Mark Hubbard 36801 0.45%
Harry Higgs 33597 0.43%
Marc Leishman 26851 0.39%
Cameron Champ 52372 0.34%
Michael Thompson 32150 0.33%
Tyler Duncan 45609 0.33%
Andrew Landry 33410 0.32%
Sung Kang 27974 0.31%
Robby Shelton 46441 0.30%
Carlos Ortiz 33667 0.27%
Tom Hoge 35532 0.21%
Richy Werenski 47128 0.21%
Nick Taylor 25493 0.20%
Jim Herman 31557 0.15%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 32791 0.09%
Jeongwoo Ham 46724 0.00%
Tae Hee Lee 49481 0.00%

Last edited by El Sueno; 10-13-2020 at 03:30 PM. Reason: DJ w/d due to covid....reran #s

Quote

10-14-2020 , 03:45 PM

#1813

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

no course history to go on so who knows? assuming it plays like an average par 72.

Code:

 	name 	win_perc 	fair_win_odds 	top_20_perc
			
28237 	rory mcilroy 	0.1053 	850 	0.7358
46970 	jon rahm 	0.0942 	961 	0.7679
33448 	justin thomas 	0.0722 	1284 	0.7046
56278 	matthew wolff 	0.0487 	1953 	0.5576
48081 	xander schauffele 	0.0433 	2211 	0.5965
30911 	tommy fleetwood 	0.0352 	2744 	0.5531
35450 	patrick cantlay 	0.0343 	2817 	0.5690
32839 	hideki matsuyama 	0.0320 	3029 	0.5202
25364 	paul casey 	0.0288 	3367 	0.5339
36689 	brooks koepka 	0.0278 	3492 	0.4675
22405 	justin rose 	0.0274 	3544 	0.5059
32102 	rickie fowler 	0.0249 	3919 	0.4564
46046 	scottie scheffler 	0.0230 	4255 	0.4616
26329 	louis oosthuizen 	0.0190 	5174 	0.4328
21209 	sergio garcia 	0.0188 	5208 	0.4477
50525 	collin morikawa 	0.0188 	5219 	0.4620
34363 	tyrrell hatton 	0.0163 	6043 	0.4147
40098 	matthew fitzpatrick 	0.0154 	6377 	0.3934
46717 	viktor hovland 	0.0150 	6584 	0.4297
40026 	daniel berger 	0.0143 	6883 	0.4482
45526 	abraham ancer 	0.0127 	7762 	0.3646
39971 	sungjae im 	0.0124 	7939 	0.4026
28089 	jason day 	0.0115 	8581 	0.3704
45486 	joaquin niemann 	0.0112 	8797 	0.3624
31323 	gary woodland 	0.0111 	8893 	0.3322
25804 	bubba watson 	0.0111 	8893 	0.3310
30927 	brendon todd 	0.0103 	9628 	0.2648
37455 	si woo kim 	0.0102 	9666 	0.2900
29420 	billy horschel 	0.0096 	10317 	0.3210
27644 	brian harman 	0.0095 	10404 	0.3054
27214 	kevin streelman 	0.0093 	10630 	0.2949
30944 	jason kokrak 	0.0089 	11161 	0.3236
33141 	keegan bradley 	0.0088 	11264 	0.3296
34099 	harris english 	0.0088 	11264 	0.3242
33948 	byeong hun an 	0.0086 	11474 	0.2905
29518 	brendan steele 	0.0076 	12989 	0.2703
34098 	russell henley 	0.0076 	13058 	0.2864
34046 	jordan spieth 	0.0070 	14186 	0.2742
39997 	corey conners 	0.0068 	14520 	0.3162
33204 	shane lowry 	0.0060 	16567 	0.2652
52372 	cameron champ 	0.0060 	16456 	0.2476
23108 	matt kuchar 	0.0057 	17383 	0.2917
25396 	kevin na 	0.0051 	19585 	0.2332
33399 	adam hadwin 	0.0050 	19900 	0.2613
46930 	jaekyeong lee 	0.0048 	20561 	0.1204
48822 	sebastian munoz 	0.0048 	20908 	0.2394
23320 	ryan palmer 	0.0043 	23048 	0.1829
35506 	mackenzie hughes 	0.0042 	23710 	0.2097
29478 	kevin kisner 	0.0038 	25942 	0.2211
24138 	ian poulter 	0.0037 	27074 	0.2416
27349 	alex noren 	0.0036 	27373 	0.2370
33597 	harry higgs 	0.0036 	27373 	0.1922
34076 	joel dahmen 	0.0034 	28970 	0.2022
26851 	marc leishman 	0.0031 	32368 	0.1705
35449 	adam long 	0.0031 	32368 	0.1681
49771 	j.t. poston 	0.0031 	32368 	0.1802
29970 	dylan frittelli 	0.0027 	36665 	0.2143
35891 	cameron smith 	0.0024 	40884 	0.1702
33667 	carlos ortiz 	0.0022 	45355 	0.1660
33410 	andrew landry 	0.0022 	44543 	0.1371
32150 	michael thompson 	0.0021 	47977 	0.1508
46402 	talor gooch 	0.0020 	48920 	0.1604
46441 	robby shelton 	0.0020 	50920 	0.1052
27974 	sung kang 	0.0018 	54248 	0.0994
55182 	joohyung kim 	0.0015 	65689 	0.1178
35310 	lanto griffin 	0.0015 	65689 	0.1424
45609 	tyler duncan 	0.0015 	65689 	0.1189
35532 	tom hoge 	0.0014 	71329 	0.1262
29926 	danny lee 	0.0012 	80545 	0.1303
47128 	richy werenski 	0.0011 	89186 	0.0956
25493 	nick taylor 	0.0008 	124900 	0.1158
36801 	mark hubbard 	0.0007 	138789 	0.1138
31557 	jim herman 	0.0005 	192208 	0.0681
32791 	kyoung-hoon lee 	0.0003 	357043 	0.0741
46724 	jeongwoo ham 	0.0001 	833233 	0.0375
47842 	hanbyeol kim 	0.0001 	1249900 	0.0354
50188 	seonghyeon kim 	0.0001 	833233 	0.0326
49481 	tae hee lee 	0.0000 	2499900 	0.0078

Quote

10-15-2020 , 01:13 PM

#1814

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

thru 2 holes scottie scheffler has horrible course history at shadow creek

Quote

10-16-2020 , 05:40 PM

#1815

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

it looks like rory used his time off to increase his distance off the tee.
however his approach game still sucks

Quote

10-17-2020 , 09:00 AM

#1816

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

I thought everyone here and elsewhere was a bit too high on Schauffele. TBD?

Quote

10-17-2020 , 11:07 AM

#1817

alcamist

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 30

Have Schauffele at 59% here Iowa!

Quote

10-17-2020 , 10:00 PM

#1818

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

I thought everyone here and elsewhere was a bit too high on Schauffele. TBD?

r2 hits 20 percent of the fairways and shoots 8 under. apparently not sustainable.

Quote

10-18-2020 , 03:31 PM

#1819

El Sueno

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 69

Jason Day WD before round 4 starts from T6, the world has returned to normal. RIP Day > Rose matchup.

Quote

10-18-2020 , 08:49 PM

#1820

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

He teed off, made a triple and WDed. Assuming him and Dustin Johnson with be out for next week.

Thinking there will be value on Rahm and Webb outrights tomorrow. Have them at +950, +1500 respectively.

Quote

10-21-2020 , 12:26 PM

#1821

Adrenocromo

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2020 Posts: 251

big step up in quality in the random asian tour players

Quote

10-22-2020 , 09:31 AM

#1822

critiakx2

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 349

Sounds like em2 is laying rufus -110 @ dfs golf for the rest of the year. I'm sure rufus doesn't have any more action to give but maybe Iowa/Sigs can get in on the reduced rakefest

Quote

10-22-2020 , 01:22 PM

#1823

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

It's a good bet for Rufus. I have them rated about the same, and it's just really hard to separate yourself from the other top guys in that game.

Quote

10-22-2020 , 06:42 PM

#1824

fkjlhfdkjhkj.

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 11,270

nothing like swings betting

day over rose
day withdraws

then woodland over rose

woodland withdraws after going -3 thru 7.

never bet against rose in full tournaments

Last edited by fkjlhfdkjhkj.; 10-22-2020 at 06:55 PM.

Quote

10-22-2020 , 07:25 PM

#1825

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

The Day over Rose one is all time since JDAY lit a few hundred thousand on fire by not gutting out even a below avg round. These guys quit all the time but usually only when it's Dodge Ram $ or less at stake.

Quote

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