600/1 says the peeps at golfodds

Non WGCs and playoff events typically have 1 or 2 Bergianos who have no business being in the field but are there on a medical/sponsor/fluke winner exemption. Messing with fit to accommodate these types is the last thing I would do.

I'm not messing with anything this week. Herman had a 13% to make the cut, which I feel is more accurate than him winning.

I had Herman at .05% to win and 30.9% to make the cut. Him winning was a hgue fluke but he is just normal bad, not Bergiano bad.

Outrights 0-2 -0.15u
YTD 0-5 -1.3u

Matchups

2-2 +0u
YTD 4-7 -3.87u

Northern trust outrights

Snedeker +21000 0.15u
Woodland +5500 0.15u
Hideki +4000 0.15u

Matchups

Tiger>Fleetwood -110
Cantlay>Berger -125
Ancer>Im -125

broken clock amirite

first 10k sims, doesn't quite look right imo though - appreciate it if anyone sees anything that conflicts heavily with their own

Golfer W % Implied Odds Cut %
Justin Thomas 5.08% 20 77.88%
Rory McIlroy 5.02% 20 81.73%
Dustin Johnson 4.73% 22 80.57%
Webb Simpson 3.53% 29 71.66%
Jon Rahm 3.27% 31 75.95%
Bryson DeChambeau 2.90% 35 75.87%
Sungjae Im 2.82% 36 68.41%
Patrick Cantlay 2.80% 36 72.81%
Collin Morikawa 2.61% 39 71.45%
Hideki Matsuyama 2.34% 43 74.31%
Rickie Fowler 2.27% 45 66.14%
Gary Woodland 2.17% 47 70.23%
Scottie Scheffler 2.11% 48 65.53%
Justin Rose 2.05% 49 69.09%
Brooks Koepka 2.03% 50 65.93%
Jason Day 1.99% 51 73.40%
Patrick Reed 1.77% 57 67.99%
Adam Scott 1.75% 58 69.39%
Matt Kuchar 1.67% 60 71.20%
Brendon Todd 1.63% 62 54.37%
Xander Schauffele 1.60% 63 65.41%
Marc Leishman 1.48% 68 62.87%
Brandt Snedeker 1.44% 70 66.65%
Cameron Champ 1.42% 71 52.36%
Alex Noren 1.38% 73 59.81%
Sebastian Munoz 1.37% 73 53.89%
Charles Howell III 1.35% 75 62.96%
Phil Mickelson 1.32% 76 58.09%
Paul Casey 1.31% 77 67.91%
Tony Finau 1.24% 81 67.71%
Abraham Ancer 1.24% 81 62.17%
Daniel Berger 1.21% 83 63.18%
Billy Horschel 1.20% 84 55.68%
Pat Perez 1.14% 88 57.56%
Harris English 1.08% 93 56.47%
Rory Sabbatini 1.06% 95 52.94%
Brian Harman 1.05% 96 53.85%
Scott Stallings 1.02% 99 52.10%
Doc Redman 0.98% 103 54.01%
Mark Hubbard 0.98% 103 44.19%
Viktor Hovland 0.97% 104 63.51%
Ian Poulter 0.97% 104 57.39%
Louis Oosthuizen 0.92% 109 56.99%
Denny McCarthy 0.91% 110 55.16%
Matt Jones 0.89% 113 53.64%
Kevin Kisner 0.84% 120 55.33%
Harold Varner III 0.83% 121 55.19%
Ryan Palmer 0.82% 122 58.44%
Dylan Frittelli 0.80% 125 57.01%
Vaughn Taylor 0.80% 125 56.01%
Kevin Na 0.80% 125 53.74%
Chez Reavie 0.80% 125 52.28%
Tommy Fleetwood 0.79% 127 56.96%
Bubba Watson 0.79% 127 57.02%
Henrik Norlander 0.79% 127 56.20%
Russell Henley 0.79% 127 54.02%
Sam Ryder 0.79% 127 54.20%
Adam Hadwin 0.73% 137 52.40%
Sepp Straka 0.71% 141 50.42%
Keegan Bradley 0.69% 145 56.28%
Jordan Spieth 0.66% 152 63.19%
Lanto Griffin 0.66% 152 57.70%
Brice Garnett 0.66% 152 53.64%
Charley Hoffman 0.65% 154 58.49%
Ryan Moore 0.64% 157 57.34%
Sam Burns 0.64% 157 58.41%
Tom Lewis 0.63% 159 56.32%
Matthew NeSmith 0.63% 159 53.28%
Adam Schenk 0.62% 162 52.66%
Maverick McNealy 0.62% 162 49.41%
Troy Merritt 0.62% 162 45.71%
Cameron Davis 0.61% 164 51.71%
Brendan Steele 0.60% 167 54.49%
Scott Piercy 0.60% 167 53.39%
Nate Lashley 0.60% 167 50.62%
Tyrrell Hatton 0.59% 170 62.23%
Matthew Wolff 0.59% 170 43.78%
Graeme McDowell 0.59% 170 40.46%
Joaquin Niemann 0.57% 176 55.04%
Kevin Streelman 0.54% 186 53.74%
Ryan Armour 0.53% 189 53.29%
Tiger Woods 0.52% 193 64.27%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 0.52% 193 50.71%
Xinjun Zhang 0.48% 209 48.43%
Cameron Smith 0.48% 209 46.26%
Nick Taylor 0.46% 218 51.05%
Lucas Glover 0.43% 233 61.06%
Carlos Ortiz 0.43% 233 50.90%
Richy Werenski 0.32% 313 45.88%
J.T. Poston 0.31% 323 52.82%
Bud Cauley 0.31% 323 48.99%
Brian Stuard 0.31% 323 47.91%
Emiliano Grillo 0.30% 334 52.67%
Wyndham Clark 0.29% 345 53.81%
Mackenzie Hughes 0.29% 345 49.21%
Russell Knox 0.28% 358 49.24%
Jason Kokrak 0.27% 371 52.28%
Brian Gay 0.27% 371 50.59%
Sung Kang 0.27% 371 39.98%
Scott Brown 0.27% 371 36.41%
Cameron Tringale 0.25% 400 46.69%
Bo Hoag 0.23% 435 42.04%
Beau Hossler 0.23% 435 39.37%
Byeong Hun An 0.22% 455 51.09%
Charl Schwartzel 0.22% 455 48.12%
Michael Thompson 0.22% 455 47.11%
Tyler Duncan 0.22% 455 42.27%
Adam Long 0.21% 477 47.99%
Danny Lee 0.21% 477 45.01%
Tom Hoge 0.21% 477 37.73%
Patrick Rodgers 0.20% 500 44.65%
Scott Harrington 0.19% 527 37.65%
Corey Conners 0.18% 556 50.88%
Luke List 0.12% 834 52.69%
Keith Mitchell 0.12% 834 43.42%
Andrew Landry 0.11% 910 46.68%
Fabian Gomez 0.11% 910 44.25%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 0.11% 910 43.72%
Talor Gooch 0.06% 1667 47.22%
Max Homa 0.06% 1667 43.28%
Joel Dahmen 0.06% 1667 43.29%
Si Woo Kim 0.04% 2500 41.45%
Zac Blair 0.02% 5000 40.34%
Harry Higgs 0.02% 5000 38.70%
Robby Shelton 0.02% 5000 36.92%

just realized i forgot to do weights for course style (as i normally do that for dfs points projections but hadn't done that yet thus just outputted pure unadulterated SG data)

going to update, run it again and compare the results

General observation is that cut percentage seems to be clustered too close to middle (50%) the top tier average over 80% every year. Cantlay, Finau, Morikawa, Horschel, Schauffele, Hovland, Wolff, Chez all seem to have cut percentages way too low. You may have some SG stats that are ahead of the game, but can’t see all of those having cut percentages so low compared to their historical averages.

this is very helpful, for a lot of those guys it's indeed naturally over 80% or even 90% sometimes

I've been manipulating it a bit to level the field so to speak to avoid those wacky distributions because I almost never see cut projections above 70% despite the overwhelming evidence higher rates are sustainable because you almost always see cut projections range from 40-60% for the entire field

feel kind of dumb now, since I knew those projections were hot garbage and thus why i want to make my own but for some reason put in arbitrary levelers to better reflect the sort of distributions they often end up with

I'm super happy you pointed that out, loving the input from everyone here

The PGA Tour site doesn't have the yardages for the course preview this week. By my records, I've got the course at Par 71 7,216 yards. In the PGA's First Look, it shows 7,342 yards.

Can someone please post a link to the yardages (or yardage adjustments) for me?

It'll likely not matter since I'll focus on Prox/GIR125-150 for shorter Par 4s, Prox/GIR175-200 for longer par 4s, and Prox/GIR200+ for the 3 long par 3s.

pre, they updated the course, hole 14 is now a par 5, everyone missed it, including rotogrinders

according to their own website https://tpc.com/boston/about/

That might be for the members. From PGA Tour's website,

So I have no idea where those yards are coming from...or if they're even there.

Just heard on the Fantasy Degenerate podcast that some yardage was added to the driveable Par 4 4th hole. Upwards of 50 yards, which still leaves 80-ish yards to be found.

yeah that's a possibility for sure, i am honestly not very sure and figured more info would come out later in the week

maybe this then https://rotogrinders.com/articles/pg...-trust-3409606

r1 r2 r3 r4 max scorecard
1 357 364 354 371 371 365
2 535 553 545 534 553 542
3 213 178 189 201 213 208
4 279 296 285 290 296 353
5 468 456 470 479 479 466
6 474 449 454 449 474 465
7 581 582 573 584 584 600
8 190 196 219 220 220 213
9 464 478 460 467 478 472
10 434 421 430 416 434 425
11 196 235 201 237 237 231
12 516 499 518 508 518 510
13 455 434 462 453 462 447
14 499 502 490 514 514 495
15 407 425 427 409 427 421
16 185 175 152 190 190 187
17 417 403 418 400 418 412
18 538 527 531 531 538 530
7208 7173 7178 7253 7406 7342

This is 2018 Dell Technologies actual distances. Looks like the 50 yards that pod was talking about was still there back then since the scorecard adds up to what you're finding. They just move the tee up so that it is drivable every day.

Thanks El Sueno.

I did my 500 sims late last night. Here's what I got. I've got way more range in Made Cut %, but I don't have any super-huge win%. So I'm thinking whatever I did poorly a few weeks ago at the PGA is gone. I know 10k sims is more than 500. I could do more.

Golfer DK Price Win % Implied Odds Make Cut %
Jon Rahm 10000 10.0% 11 92.6%
Hideki Matsuyama 8600 10.0% 11 90.2%
Webb Simpson 9500 7.4% 15 90.8%
Patrick Cantlay 9200 5.8% 18 87.0%
Rory McIlroy 10800 5.6% 19 88.8%
Justin Thomas 11300 5.4% 20 87.2%
Bryson DeChambeau 11100 5.4% 20 87.4%
Tony Finau 8800 5.0% 21 88.6%
Xander Schauffele 9700 4.8% 22 87.6%
Collin Morikawa 10200 4.2% 25 86.6%
Tiger Woods 8700 3.8% 27 86.2%
Dustin Johnson 10400 3.6% 29 83.6%
Sungjae Im 7700 3.2% 32 81.2%
Tyrrell Hatton 8000 2.8% 37 86.8%
Gary Woodland 7800 2.4% 43 85.2%
Scottie Scheffler 8100 2.4% 43 80.0%
Abraham Ancer 7700 2.4% 43 83.0%
Rickie Fowler 7900 2.4% 43 71.0%
Paul Casey 8500 2.2% 46 83.4%
Daniel Berger 8900 2.2% 46 84.4%
Jason Day 9300 2.0% 51 76.2%
Joaquin Niemann 7200 2.0% 51 69.4%
Brooks Koepka 9100 1.8% 57 78.0%
Harold Varner III 7400 1.4% 72 74.0%
Corey Conners 6900 1.4% 72 76.2%
Doc Redman 7400 1.2% 84 86.0%
Viktor Hovland 8200 1.2% 84 81.8%
Lucas Glover 6900 1.2% 84 71.6%
Russell Henley 7300 1.0% 101 74.6%
Byeong Hun An 7300 0.8% 126 65.6%
Emiliano Grillo 7000 0.6% 168 70.2%
Harris English 7600 0.6% 168 67.2%
Kevin Streelman 6700 0.6% 168 66.6%
Tommy Fleetwood 8300 0.6% 168 60.8%
Matthew Wolff 7800 0.6% 168 60.4%
Cameron Tringale 6600 0.4% 251 65.8%
Billy Horschel 7900 0.4% 251 67.0%
Shane Lowry 7500 0.4% 251 69.8%
Patrick Reed 9000 0.4% 251 67.0%
Ryan Moore 7100 0.4% 251 65.2%
Matthew NeSmith 6100 0.4% 251 64.8%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 8100 0.4% 251 67.0%
Adam Schenk 6100 0.4% 251 63.8%
Talor Gooch 6500 0.4% 251 63.0%
Brice Garnett 6400 0.4% 251 63.0%
Charles Howell III 6700 0.4% 251 59.2%
Joel Dahmen 7100 0.4% 251 61.4%
Denny McCarthy 6700 0.4% 251 55.2%
Adam Scott 8400 0.2% 501 72.0%
Jason Kokrak 6800 0.2% 501 70.0%
Ryan Palmer 7300 0.2% 501 66.2%
Matt Kuchar 7400 0.2% 501 64.8%
Adam Hadwin 7200 0.2% 501 61.4%
Brian Harman 6800 0.2% 501 60.0%
J.T. Poston 6300 0.2% 501 62.2%
Henrik Norlander 6600 0.2% 501 59.6%
Brendon Todd 7500 0.2% 501 60.2%
Cameron Davis 6300 0.2% 501 57.6%
Louis Oosthuizen 7500 0.2% 501 55.2%
Tom Lewis 7000 0.2% 501 57.4%
Rory Sabbatini 6500 0.2% 501 55.4%
Luke List 6700 0.2% 501 54.6%
Cameron Champ 7600 0.2% 501 51.2%
Nick Taylor 6200 0.2% 501 50.6%
Zach Johnson 6800 0.2% 501 49.2%
Richy Werenski 6500 0.2% 501 48.2%
Adam Long 6600 0.2% 501 46.4%
Tyler Duncan 6300 0.2% 501 44.0%
Matt Jones 6200 0.2% 501 39.6%
Chez Reavie 7100 0 9999 60.6%
Lanto Griffin 6700 0 9999 56.6%
Kevin Kisner 7600 0 9999 58.4%
Justin Rose 8000 0 9999 59.0%
Bud Cauley 6600 0 9999 56.8%
Bubba Watson 7200 0 9999 58.4%
Brendan Steele 6800 0 9999 55.4%
Marc Leishman 7400 0 9999 55.8%
Maverick McNealy 6400 0 9999 54.8%
Dylan Frittelli 7000 0 9999 54.4%
Carlos Ortiz 6200 0 9999 54.0%
Sepp Straka 6300 0 9999 42.6%
Pat Perez 6400 0 9999 34.6%
Mark Hubbard 6600 0 9999 57.2%
Scott Stallings 6400 0 9999 63.4%
Ryan Armour 6400 0 9999 47.6%
Brandt Snedeker 6900 0 9999 30.6%
Max Homa 7000 0 9999 57.8%
Harry Higgs 6000 0 9999 18.8%
Keegan Bradley 6600 0 9999 46.8%
Tom Hoge 6400 0 9999 55.2%
Sam Ryder 6300 0 9999 52.6%
Vaughn Taylor 6000 0 9999 31.8%
Scott Piercy 6100 0 9999 51.0%
Brian Stuard 6200 0 9999 58.0%
Kevin Na 6800 0 9999 60.4%
Si Woo Kim 7700 0 9999 83.4%
Michael Thompson 6400 0 9999 49.0%
Alex Noren 7100 0 9999 61.8%
Keith Mitchell 6300 0 9999 38.8%
Patrick Rodgers 6500 0 9999 18.6%
Sam Burns 6900 0 9999 72.0%
Ian Poulter 7200 0 9999 75.0%
Xinjun Zhang 6100 0 9999 42.2%
Troy Merritt 6100 0 9999 64.2%
Jordan Spieth 7800 0 9999 60.8%
Charley Hoffman 6500 0 9999 63.4%
Andrew Landry 6200 0 9999 28.2%
Nate Lashley 6200 0 9999 34.6%
Danny Lee 6100 0 9999 23.2%
Scott Brown 6000 0 9999 37.4%
Cameron Smith 6900 0 9999 54.8%
Bo Hoag 6000 0 9999 11.6%
Phil Mickelson 7300 0 9999 66.0%
Sung Kang 6100 0 9999 22.2%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 6200 0 9999 43.0%
Robby Shelton 6000 0 9999 45.6%
Sebastian Munoz 6000 0 9999 45.6%
Scott Harrington 6100 0 9999 26.4%
Mackenzie Hughes 6700 0 9999 49.6%
Jim Herman 6500 0 9999 48.6%
Wyndham Clark 6000 0 9999 25.8%
Beau Hossler 6100 0 9999 40.2%
Graeme McDowell 6300 0 9999 43.4%
Brian Gay 6000 0 9999 26.4%
Zac Blair 6000 0 9999 31.0%

Ran 1000 total sims.

Golfer DK Price Win % Implied Odds Make Cut %
Hideki Matsuyama 8600 10.3% 11 91.1%
Jon Rahm 10000 8.9% 12 92.4%
Webb Simpson 9500 7.5% 14 90.2%
Rory McIlroy 10800 6.1% 17 89.2%
Patrick Cantlay 9200 5.9% 18 87.9%
Bryson DeChambeau 11100 5.7% 19 88.4%
Tony Finau 8800 5.7% 19 87.5%
Xander Schauffele 9700 5.6% 19 88.4%
Justin Thomas 11300 5.2% 20 89.0%
Collin Morikawa 10200 4.4% 24 87.1%
Tiger Woods 8700 3.8% 27 85.3%
Dustin Johnson 10400 3.4% 30 82.9%
Tyrrell Hatton 8000 3.2% 32 87.1%
Gary Woodland 7800 3.2% 32 83.6%
Scottie Scheffler 8100 3.1% 33 82.6%
Sungjae Im 7700 3.1% 33 81.2%
Abraham Ancer 7700 2.5% 41 83.0%
Brooks Koepka 9100 2.4% 43 78.2%
Daniel Berger 8900 2.4% 43 82.7%
Jason Day 9300 2.2% 46 76.8%
Paul Casey 8500 2.1% 49 84.0%
Viktor Hovland 8200 2.1% 49 81.9%
Rickie Fowler 7900 1.6% 64 70.1%
Doc Redman 7400 1.5% 68 84.5%
Joaquin Niemann 7200 1.2% 84 69.7%
Corey Conners 6900 1.0% 101 75.9%
Harold Varner III 7400 0.8% 126 77.2%
Tommy Fleetwood 8300 0.7% 144 65.3%
Russell Henley 7300 0.7% 144 75.1%
Lucas Glover 6900 0.7% 144 70.1%
Adam Scott 8400 0.6% 168 73.5%
Harris English 7600 0.6% 168 67.2%
Kevin Streelman 6700 0.6% 168 66.5%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 8100 0.5% 201 65.5%
Matthew Wolff 7800 0.5% 201 60.5%
Byeong Hun An 7300 0.5% 201 67.3%
Jason Kokrak 6800 0.5% 201 69.6%
Charles Howell III 6700 0.5% 201 59.4%
Emiliano Grillo 7000 0.4% 251 69.4%
Cameron Tringale 6600 0.4% 251 66.9%
Talor Gooch 6500 0.4% 251 62.9%
Adam Schenk 6100 0.4% 251 63.5%
Patrick Reed 9000 0.3% 334 69.4%
Billy Horschel 7900 0.3% 334 65.8%
Adam Hadwin 7200 0.3% 334 62.9%
Ryan Moore 7100 0.3% 334 65.6%
Henrik Norlander 6600 0.3% 334 61.4%
Rory Sabbatini 6500 0.3% 334 53.6%
Matthew NeSmith 6100 0.3% 334 65.9%
Justin Rose 8000 0.2% 501 59.0%
Cameron Champ 7600 0.2% 501 54.4%
Brendon Todd 7500 0.2% 501 58.4%
Shane Lowry 7500 0.2% 501 67.0%
Matt Kuchar 7400 0.2% 501 62.8%
Ryan Palmer 7300 0.2% 501 65.4%
Joel Dahmen 7100 0.2% 501 62.3%
Alex Noren 7100 0.2% 501 40.2%
Tom Lewis 7000 0.2% 501 54.7%
Denny McCarthy 6700 0.2% 501 55.2%
Richy Werenski 6500 0.2% 501 46.2%
Brice Garnett 6400 0.2% 501 62.7%
Tyler Duncan 6300 0.2% 501 44.7%
J.T. Poston 6300 0.2% 501 62.3%
Cameron Davis 6300 0.2% 501 56.7%
Louis Oosthuizen 7500 0.1% 1001 54.2%
Max Homa 7000 0.1% 1001 49.4%
Dylan Frittelli 7000 0.1% 1001 54.1%
Sam Burns 6900 0.1% 1001 37.3%
Brendan Steele 6800 0.1% 1001 56.3%
Brian Harman 6800 0.001 9999 62.4%
Zach Johnson 6800 0.001 9999 48.7%
Luke List 6700 0.001 9999 53.7%
Lanto Griffin 6700 0.001 9999 57.8%
Adam Long 6600 0.001 9999 45.3%
Patrick Rodgers 6500 0.001 9999 35.9%
Carlos Ortiz 6200 0.001 9999 51.5%
Matt Jones 6200 0.001 9999 39.0%
Nick Taylor 6200 0.001 9999 51.0%
Jordan Spieth 7800 0 9999 34.0%
Si Woo Kim 7700 0 9999 42.4%
Kevin Kisner 7600 0 9999 59.4%
Marc Leishman 7400 0 9999 54.9%
Phil Mickelson 7300 0 9999 32.5%
Ian Poulter 7200 0 9999 39.5%
Bubba Watson 7200 0 9999 57.0%
Chez Reavie 7100 0 9999 61.0%
Cameron Smith 6900 0 9999 31.2%
Brandt Snedeker 6900 0 9999 51.4%
Kevin Na 6800 0 9999 40.1%
Mackenzie Hughes 6700 0 9999 22.3%
Keegan Bradley 6600 0 9999 45.6%
Bud Cauley 6600 0 9999 58.4%
Mark Hubbard 6600 0 9999 52.4%
Charley Hoffman 6500 0 9999 33.2%
Jim Herman 6500 0 9999 19.4%
Pat Perez 6400 0 9999 52.2%
Maverick McNealy 6400 0 9999 52.7%
Tom Hoge 6400 0 9999 45.7%
Scott Stallings 6400 0 9999 49.1%
Ryan Armour 6400 0 9999 47.7%
Michael Thompson 6400 0 9999 39.9%
Keith Mitchell 6300 0 9999 41.1%
Sepp Straka 6300 0 9999 52.8%
Sam Ryder 6300 0 9999 43.3%
Graeme McDowell 6300 0 9999 19.8%
Brian Stuard 6200 0 9999 41.5%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 6200 0 9999 25.4%
Andrew Landry 6200 0 9999 34.7%
Nate Lashley 6200 0 9999 32.1%
Scott Piercy 6100 0 9999 42.8%
Xinjun Zhang 6100 0 9999 40.0%
Beau Hossler 6100 0 9999 21.1%
Sung Kang 6100 0 9999 25.0%
Scott Harrington 6100 0 9999 24.8%
Danny Lee 6100 0 9999 32.6%
Troy Merritt 6100 0 9999 34.9%
Scott Brown 6000 0 9999 30.0%
Zac Blair 6000 0 9999 12.0%
Bo Hoag 6000 0 9999 27.3%
Vaughn Taylor 6000 0 9999 45.2%
Robby Shelton 6000 0 9999 25.7%
Brian Gay 6000 0 9999 20.3%
Harry Higgs 6000 0 9999 46.3%
Sebastian Munoz 6000 0 9999 24.3%
Wyndham Clark 6000 0 9999 22.8%

what do you get if you run 2000 sims

Carpal Tunnel

Jk. I might do more in a bit. Why? Do you think they look awful?

I put together a lineup I really like...so avoid these guys like the California Plague.

Rahm, Webb, Deki, Sungjae, Niemann, Tringale