My sims are taking way longer than I'd hoped to prep. I guess I'll have something tomorrow by lunch.

Lets go, so pumped to rail a major:

Schauffele @17.0 (3.2 units) 20% 1-11
Cantlay @26.0 (2.3 units) 20% 1-10

English @111.0 (0.58 units) 20% 1-11
Kitayama @401.0 (0.17 units) 20% 1-11

Jason Day top 20 @2.88 (1.35 units)

How much over par do we expect the monster Par 3 (8th) to play? What kind of average score are we expecting? 3.3 or 3.7?

Likely that score fluctuates quite a bit by round, but 3.7 is astronomical. You’ll probably see the tee up the first two days mainly for pace of play. They aren’t gonna get too sporty with 156 guys needing to go around. Weekend is a different story with twosomes and a single tee. But the scorecard I found says 250, which isn’t that insane considering it won’t play that long every day. I’d have to check a SG table but I’d imagine at 250 from a tee the expected score is in the 3.3-3.4 range. 3.7 would be in line with a 330-360 yard par 4 probably.

0.5u DJ @26.00
0.25u Lowry @95.00

I hear ya. I calculated all my probabilities and got an average score of 3.313. The hole seems like a monster, so I was just checking to see if I was too low on it.

Ran 500 Sims this morning. Kuchar at 7500 seems like good value.

More thoughts coming as I comb through the numbers.

Bookmaker taking 50k limits, damn.

Gonna try keep records

0-2 -2.6u

Outright

-0.75u

Majors outright

Rahm +1400 0.25u
Leishman +11050 0.10u
Finau +6000 0.05u

Matchups

Thompson > Poston +112
Fitzpatrick > Scott -148
Im > Lowry +101
Finau > Hovland - 128
Rahm > Thomas +121

Also dk pricing seems insane to me but I don't play that much, Fleetwood under 8k seems nuts to me.

0.5u DJ @26.00
0.25u Lowry @95.00

added

0.25u Reavie @180.00

What kind of money are you able to get down on these exchange prices Westwindon? I'm assuming whoever layed Reavie at 180 didn't do it for a massive amount?

The prices you've posted are pretty mind boggling good.

Who is laying 800 on sabbatini on betfair? does someone need $800 in the account to lay $1 here?

Not a lot, my golf units are peanuts (1u = £40), but I am sure the liquidity is there for 4/5/10x though.

edit: Just checked and you can currently get £265 matched on Reavie at 160.00 for £44,000 - so the availability is there.

really appreciate the insights everyone, spent a bunch of time this week further strengthening the weight of established rankings, weighing stength of field into the SG metrics and giving more umpff to my cut making projection using historical data (had previously just figured that would sort itself out but after seeing my model not appreciate the cut makers you guys here love and looking at their stats and realizing they do indeed make the cut i knew it was time to adapt

ran the algo first using the old system and again with the new one

you guys think there is value is adding recent form - although i do weigh recent performance more, i keep it in a pretty big bin of current calendar year - i know it's common for people to zero in on on last month or so but that feels like lolsample size

still not importing non pga data so the closer to the bottom we go the sketchier this is, i'm sure i'll miss some value from time to time this way but for dfs purposes these guys are for the most part not on the radar anyway

New Old Dif Golfer
1 1 0 Rory McIlroy
2 2 0 Justin Thomas
3 3 0 Patrick Cantlay
4 4 0 Jon Rahm
5 5 0 Webb Simpson
6 7 1 Collin Morikawa
7 8 1 Xander Schauffele
8 6 -2 Bryson DeChambeau
9 9 0 Daniel Berger
10 12 2 Abraham Ancer
11 10 -1 Hideki Matsuyama
12 19 7 Tyrrell Hatton
13 21 8 Matthew Fitzpatrick
14 13 -1 Tony Finau
15 20 5 Patrick Reed
16 11 -5 Dustin Johnson
17 16 -1 Gary Woodland
18 15 -3 Adam Scott
19 18 -1 Sungjae Im
20 17 -3 Viktor Hovland
21 24 3 Harris English
22 14 -8 Sergio Garcia
23 26 3 Adam Hadwin
24 22 -2 Billy Horschel
25 23 -2 Chez Reavie
26 28 2 Ian Poulter
27 29 2 Matt Kuchar
28 27 -1 Marc Leishman
29 34 5 Kevin Na
30 32 2 Joel Dahmen
31 25 -6 Paul Casey
32 36 4 Jordan Spieth
33 30 -3 Scottie Scheffler
34 35 1 Tommy Fleetwood
35 31 -4 Jason Day
36 59 23 Tiger Woods
37 37 0 Corey Conners
38 33 -5 Rickie Fowler
39 38 -1 Joaquin Niemann
40 41 1 Brian Harman
41 46 5 Cameron Tringale
42 39 -3 Brooks Koepka
43 54 11 Talor Gooch
44 40 -4 Ryan Palmer
45 44 -1 J.T. Poston
46 52 6 Brendon Todd
47 47 0 Bud Cauley
48 57 9 Carlos Ortiz
49 42 -7 Adam Long
50 58 8 Louis Oosthuizen
51 65 14 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
52 48 -4 Max Homa
53 43 -10 Shane Lowry
54 60 6 Richy Werenski
55 73 18 Mark Hubbard
56 62 6 Zach Johnson
57 53 -4 Doc Redman
58 45 -13 Byeong Hun An
59 49 -10 Harold Varner III
60 50 -10 Matthew Wolff
61 66 5 Lanto Griffin
62 69 7 Nick Taylor
63 61 -2 Jim Furyk
64 63 -1 Brendan Steele
65 64 -1 Kevin Kisner
66 71 5 Matt Jones
67 51 -16 Lucas Glover
68 68 0 Rory Sabbatini
69 56 -13 Russell Henley
70 78 8 Brian Stuard
71 55 -16 Bubba Watson
72 76 4 Dylan Frittelli
73 74 1 Phil Mickelson
74 77 3 Brandt Snedeker
75 67 -8 Kevin Streelman
76 75 -1 Keegan Bradley
77 81 4 Denny McCarthy
78 70 -8 Justin Rose
79 79 0 Sebastian Munoz
80 72 -8 Erik van Rooyen
81 82 1 Cameron Champ
82 83 1 Scott Piercy
83 86 3 Jason Dufner
84 80 -4 Luke List
85 88 3 Matt Wallace
86 89 3 Tyler Duncan
87 91 4 Troy Merritt
88 84 -4 Jason Kokrak
89 94 5 Vaughn Taylor
90 92 2 Tom Hoge
91 85 -6 Sepp Straka
92 87 -5 Emiliano Grillo
93 97 4 Danny Lee
94 95 1 Xinjun Zhang
95 96 1 Nate Lashley
96 93 -3 Danny Willett
97 98 1 Cameron Smith
98 90 -8 Tom Lewis
99 100 1 Si Woo Kim
100 99 -1 Rafa Cabrera Bello
101 103 2 Henrik Stenson
102 101 -1 Graeme McDowell
103 105 2 Jazz Janewattananond
104 102 -2 Michael Thompson
105 106 1 Sung Kang
106 104 -2 Mackenzie Hughes
107 108 1 Steve Stricker
108 107 -1 Andrew Landry
109 110 1 Bernd Wiesberger
110 109 -1 Charl Schwartzel
111 115 4 Robert MacIntyre
112 118 6 Joost Luiten
113 124 11 Zach J. Johnson
114 112 -2 Haotong Li
115 117 2 Andrew Putnam
116 116 0 Wyndham Clark
117 119 2 Benjamin Hebert
118 111 -7 Keith Mitchell
119 114 -5 Jimmy Walker
120 121 1 Mike Lorenzo-Vera
121 113 -8 C.T. Pan
122 122 0 Kurt Kitayama
123 127 4 Marcus Kinhult
124 120 -4 Jorge Campillo
125 129 4 Matthias Schwab
126 125 -1 Martin Kaymer
127 128 1 Shaun Norris
128 130 2 Lucas Herbert
129 131 2 Victor Perez

Brooks to miss the cut 4.5

Finau +6069
Woodland +5750
Ancer +6285
Wolff +10050
Leishman +11050
Rahm +1351

That's better than I suspected, if you keep taking those prices it can't be long until you're capping out. Are you pretty selective only taking the absolute monster value picks? I noticed you don't have a lot of bets, but the ones you do are obviously ridiculously profitable.

Lol at someone laying 44k to win 265 on Reavie. I mean, don't see him ever winning, but that just seems bananas to me.

For UK guys a few books have specials for PGA:

WH are price matching, so you can take the best price at their somewhat ok 20% 1-9 e/w terms. Im at 91 (matched from bet365) looks decent.

Betway and Starsports are paying as a winner if your horse leads after any round (dead heat rules).

They both have pretty small caps, but they're good offers.

Bug in rankings, fixing now

Just got power back after 24 hours without. Stupid Isaias!

I embarrassingly ran 1500 sims before power went down, and Kuchar was far and away the most successful player. Embarrassingly successful. I checked my data. His birdie probability (for me) is top 15 for all types of holes. RNG just really liked assigning him low numbers. Again, that's across 1500 sims.

Here's my top 10 in Win % (of the last 500 sims after some tweaks)
Matt Kuchar
Kevin Kisner
Billy Horschel
Kevin Na
Justin Thomas
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Harris English
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Brendon Todd

Why not run more sims?

0.75u DJ @26.00
0.25u Lowry @95.00
0.25u Reavie @180.00
0.25u Finau @70.00
0.25u Grillo @400.00
0.25u Kuchar @210.00 - for precept rankings

Lost a bunch of time due to loss of power from Tropical Storm Isaias, but I'm doing more now. I fear the same results are coming. I haven't seen anything like this from any sims I ran.

I think the highest I saw was an 11% win percentage.

I'll be honest I don't really know what I'm doing with golf, I'm a pretty big boxing winner, so much I've been limited at most euro sites.
Golf at this point is a hobby rather than a profession, I stick to the monster value and I don't use Kelly for Golf like I did with boxing (yet).

DJ @26.00 with Rory/Thomas/Koepka all under 17.00? I'd of bet any one of them at 26.00, just happened to be DJ was the best price.

# of sims is irrelevant if your Big 4 for a major is Matt Kuchar/Kevin Kisner/Billy Horschel/Kevin Na.

don't listen to em precept. number of sims run is a key element to top bettors' edge

maybe he forgot to put the Par4s and 5s in the sim?