Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
rick,
I know I could google this but you seem really well versed; can you explain exactly how DFS works with the lock outs and overlays and the big multi accounters? How that affects everything? Ive never done much at all with DFS, it all seems kind scammy to me for some reason. How are players priced for NHL for example. I assume the opponent is priced in? Like if Pastarnak is going against the worst PK in the league one night his price would be worse than average, right?
Government legislation declares that all contests must have a maximum amount of entrances. It's not like poker where unlimited about of people can join a MTT. There's also no "late registration" or anything of that sort.
For whatever reason, people broadly ignore non guaranteed contests so overwhelming majority are guaranteed. Normally they fill, but sometimes the sites have difficulty in predicting interest and you can occasionally find incredible overlay opportunity. Even more so in the smaller sites.
Player pricing is fairly efficient to account for opponent, recent performance and overall ownership interest but the sites keep the methodology a secret. However, it's static so when someone has a dramatically new role ie a backup RB getting the starting job they remain minimally priced.
However, there's always a couple head scratchers that are criminally under priced. Some feel it's just guys who slip through the cracks, I feel it's intentional to drive interest. IE someone thinks Rubio is way too cheap tonight so they'll enter $100 worth of contests instead of his normal $10.
The multi accounting has been a problem for years. Again, state legislation forced them to put in a limit on entries so people starting signing up their brother or their friend. They don't even hide that they work together. They say "we discuss projections and strategy together" which is allowed but deny the one thing they are not allowed to do stating "we do not coordinate our lines to ensure we don't duplicate each other." This is a lie, everyone knows it's a lie. But the sites have plausible deniability so they each time they do an internal investigation they find the accused parties innocent. Most of these guys are ex poker players.
The issue with the bachelor and bachelorette is that as D list celebrities the mainstream news locked onto the cheating and this happened just as the site is about to go public so now there is huge scrutiny and the second place finisher is already filling a lawsuit.
Furthermore, another ex bachelor who works as a tout got so hyped up he made all these celebratory tweets about his buddy winning and further went on to say a bunch of other stuff like that they hand build 150 lineups each and that he was on the phone with his buddy at the end sweating it out. Then the bachelor himself tells espn they use software instead of hand holding so now you know one is lying etc etc (the hand build is an obvious lie btw difference between 12 hours of work vs 10 minutes) He then went and deleted all those because people picked up that he outed his friend as a cheater because it was his wife's account that won. His wife who regularly tweets about hating sports and how just weeks ago the guy said on a bachelor reunion thing or something that the thing his wife hated most any him was fantasy football. As Instagram people there's also a long digital trail of her making it clear that DFS was his thing only and they are often not even in the same place at the same time on game days so draft kings could easily just do an IP check to prove it.
They also went about dividing the lineps incredibly stupidly giving afc QBs to one account and nfc QBs to the other instead of randomizing it. So clearly they coordinated this to avoid delicates. And they even used their real names and pictures on the accounts so when they won people both knew who won instead of "gobears427"
Basically, they went about the dumbest possible way.
But here's the thing, whatever DK does they are screwed. If they find them innocent then there will probably be a government investigation into them not enforcing government stipulations. But if they do enforce it then it really begs the question how they can then not look back at other obvious colluders and not come down on them too.
At the end of the day, if I use a given set of projections and use an optimizer to make just 10 lineups then my buddy does the same then we're going to naturally end up having a couple duplicate lineups. These guys say they work together to make one set of projections and then magically make 150 lineups each and independently without consulting the other and none of them overlap each other. It's simply impossible they aren't coordinating that, which is very clearly stated to be against the rules. There's a paper trail on all these guys going back years so there's about evidence.
Making it even more interesting is that they always have the same cash line where being unique doesn't matter you just need to be better than 55% of other lines. This is why they are forced to admit they use the same projections because that's the only way they can explain that their cash lines are always identical but the 150x gpp lines always unique. It's beyond absurd.
For example you'll see in that 6 man contest that there's another account with the same line as aboveandbeyond so now I know who his new partner is. He used to work with losingitall and makeitrain but I haven't seen those two around lately.
The real thing is that something like 93% of the money put into play each week is by the same top 1% and they win like 97% of all the money so while they are profiting as they syphon money off the casuals, those handful of guys keep those sites in business. So the sites had extremely good reasons to look other other way. Now it doesn't seem like they can continue to do that so it's very interesting times indeed.
A lot of people are predicting that DK and FD may just drop DFS altogether and focus on sportsbetting entirely rather than continue this lawsuit magnet going.
Last edited by rickroll; 01-10-2020 at 08:55 AM.