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Old 10-18-2019, 10:45 PM   #51
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Only time I'd bet BK would be laying him atm, may be salty cos I had him as the last leg of a parlay 2 weeks ago and he missed the cut. The Goats don't miss cuts, so he looks less than desirable to me from a betting standpoint and has for a while bar major heaters. I am from N.I though, so you may spot a slight bias.

If anyone could take a look at my lineup and rec hedges I'd love to know. I have no idea what to do.
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Old 10-18-2019, 10:53 PM   #52
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Brooks WDed. That stings my DK lineups with him.
Are you on a WD downswing!? I don't think you should ever have any favs in your line up when golf betting though.
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Old 10-20-2019, 10:37 AM   #53
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Decided to hedge on JT on the 12th hole when he and Danny Lee were clear of the pack. 12 units at 1.50, to lock in the win. in for 18 units total this week.

I hit two of my EW's (Lee and An) for 8.2 units and the JT hedge for 6 units profit. Total profit of 8.2 units on the week. This was only possible by Boyle being slow to update the Danny Lee price, so very fortunate.

I was impressed by Lee's composure this week even though he didn't get the win.
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Old 10-21-2019, 03:27 PM   #54
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 10-21-2019, 03:41 PM   #55
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread


Last edited by ligastar; 10-21-2019 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 10-21-2019, 03:57 PM   #56
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Old 10-22-2019, 02:09 AM   #57
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Run good for posting pre event. I'll join you with a unit on Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa.
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Old 10-22-2019, 08:58 AM   #58
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Run good for posting pre event. I'll join you with a unit on Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa.
Gl to us.

Adding Portugal Masters action:

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Old 10-22-2019, 03:52 PM   #59
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Zozo Championship. Bets on players are each way (20% 1-7) as always.

Xander Schauffele @ 21.0 (2.8 units)
Patrick Reed @ 29.0 (2.0 units)
Sung Jae Im @ 34.0 (1.8 units)

Matchups

Sung Jae Im vs Wyndham Clark / vs Jazz Janewattananond @2.20 ( 1.4 units)
Matthew Fitzpatrick vs Morikawa @ 1.95 (1.0 units)

In for 8 units total this week. I've bet slightly larger on lower priced players this week, because I felt like I needed some big hitters with Rory and J.T both in the field. I played around with Si Woo Kim, Sabbatini, Friteli, Ben An, Reavie and Cabrera Bello, but ultimately decided on this.
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Old 10-25-2019, 04:54 PM   #60
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Snipes for the week

Sung Jae Im @91.0 (1.2 units)
CT Pan @126.0(0.6 units)

Both Added on Ladbrokes during round 1 when they failed to update prices and both players were around 41.0 -51.0 on other books.

Added:

(Round 2) Sung Jae Im vs Wyndham Clark / vs Jazz Janewattananond @2.00 ( 1.2 units)

Weekly total 11.0 units.
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Old 10-25-2019, 07:02 PM   #61
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Looking like we could be headed to a 54 hole finish in Japan. Still aren't able to get the second round started.
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Old 10-25-2019, 08:37 PM   #62
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Definitely wouldn't be great for my bets, I need all 4 days after the start I had. I saw they pushed the Tee times back today and the weather seems fine, so assuming that's to allow them to drain the course more?
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Old 10-25-2019, 09:19 PM   #63
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Definitely wouldn't be great for my bets, I need all 4 days after the start I had. I saw they pushed the Tee times back today and the weather seems fine, so assuming that's to allow them to drain the course more?
The first two groups are just now on the course (which is the start to round 2). It is 10:20 AM there (Saturday obv).
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Old 10-25-2019, 09:23 PM   #64
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Oh good. Nate Lashley WDed. That's 1/4 lineups dead.
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Old 10-25-2019, 09:57 PM   #65
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Ligastar: I read that they're doing a Monday finish now, so it should be fine now that this round has started.

Precept: Sounds like you're getting some weird Withdrawal bad luck, that's never happened to me in golf betting!

Looks like we'll see some crazy low scores today. Rory and Hideki both eagled their first hole (376 yard par 4).
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Old 10-26-2019, 08:39 AM   #66
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Ligastar: I read that they're doing a Monday finish now, so it should be fine now that this round has started.

Precept: Sounds like you're getting some weird Withdrawal bad luck, that's never happened to me in golf betting!

Looks like we'll see some crazy low scores today. Rory and Hideki both eagled their first hole (376 yard par 4).
Thx for the heads-up. It makes sense.

I just watched TW highlights on SC. The course was closed to spectators. At least on one of the par 4s they put the tee markers in the middle of the fairway (creating a 141 yd par 4) b/c of the damage done to the course from the torrential rain.
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Old 10-26-2019, 06:37 PM   #67
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Haha, I just saw that today. I was seriously confused how so many people were eagling a par 4. I've never heard of holes being shortened before, thought everyone was just driving the green somehow.

We have some work to do on our Fitzpatrick Morikawa bet, would bet it again though.

Going to look a bit more into 3 balls for next week. I was really happy with the IM/Clark/Jazz bet and won it easily both days. It really stuck out as a clear pick, so will be keeping my eye out a bit more on those.
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Old 10-26-2019, 09:28 PM   #68
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Corey Connors is going to be a slam dunk in any non elite line up this season, I'd feel so comfortable betting on him. Anyone have an idea what kind of price they'd want on him for a lower tier event (outright)?

You might spot some value in your match-ups, Liga. Don't think there's any doubt he can hang at this stage.
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Old 10-26-2019, 09:52 PM   #69
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

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Corey Connors is going to be a slam dunk in any non elite line up this season, I'd feel so comfortable betting on him. Anyone have an idea what kind of price they'd want on him for a lower tier event (outright)?

You might spot some value in your match-ups, Liga. Don't think there's any doubt he can hang at this stage.
Yeah I agree. Conners is proving himself to be a top-tier talent. A quick move up the rankings too: 2017 end of year OWGR #676 and now #67. Playing in three majors (and The Players) last year also gave him some exposure to big boy golf.
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Old 10-27-2019, 09:15 AM   #70
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Agreed. If Conners learns how to putt, he'd be elite.
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Old 10-27-2019, 06:40 PM   #71
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Oh wow, he was 181/188 in strokes gained putting last year. I didn't realise it was that bad. Surprised to see Ben An one lower than Conners, he's a favourite of mine so will have to keep an eye out.
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Old 10-27-2019, 06:44 PM   #72
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Yup. The Fantasy Golf Bag podcast is all about SG-Approach and has pegged Conners and An as favorites.
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Old 10-27-2019, 09:00 PM   #73
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Another week where I've secured a surprisingly large profit by sniping good prices on Thursdays. My 1.2 units bet on Sung Jae Im on Thursday were each way (25% 1-5). Unfortunately Xander bogeyed the 18th and shot a 2 over Sunday, which cost a very likely 6 units. Still, with this strategy I'm pumped anytime I'm in profit without picking a winner.

Weekly total profit: 14 units

Total profit since I started posting: +39 + 8 + 14 = 61 units
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Old 10-28-2019, 01:10 PM   #74
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Re: Golf Betting Picks and Discussion Thread

Anyone fancy Casey this week in China? He had a big of a nightmare and missed the cut at the Italian Open, but T17 last week. Form has been strong with the European open win followed by T11 at the BMW championship.

Thinking of going for Im, Wiesberger and Casey as the main chunk. I'm skipping Matt Wallace while his weekend woes continue and Ben An after seeing him at the bottom of SGP, even though they've been mainstays in my line ups.

Considering Haotong Li (56.0)and Macintyre (67.0) as the outsiders and tempted by 2 south Africans Bezuidenhoot (71.0) and Van Rooyen (61.0) for smaller bets.

Really tempted to break the strategy and Bet a few units on Rory outright, but the price just seems so terrible I'm not sure I can bring myself to do it.
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Old 10-28-2019, 04:19 PM   #75
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