Quote:
Originally Posted by jablo1312
Yea no offense but that doesn't make a lot of sense.
First of all you need to figure out how often 27 RHE occurs. As a rough rule of thumb for lines less than 30 I often say that a specific total occurs 1/total times (this is only true for totals close to the even money line).
So for example if I am betting on over 6.5 assists for a certain player, I assume 7 assists occurs roughly 1 in 7 times or 14.28%.
if an nfl player has his total tackles line at Under 5.5, I assume he makes 5 tackles 1 in 5 times or 20%.
So ill assume that you get exactly 27 RHE one in 27 times or 3.7%.
If 27.5 is the correct line for the event, if a bookie makes no profit the price would be $2.00. If you were to bet on over 27.0, if exactly 27 occurs you get a refund.
Betting $100 on 27.5 at $2.00, you make $100 if the total is 28 or higher and lose otherwise. Betting $100 on over 27.0 means you win $100 for 28 or higher, get a refund for 27 and lose $100 otherwise.
If you assume that 27.5 is the fair value line and that 27 occurs 3.7%. Then betting on over 27.0 means you win 50%, you tie 3.7% and lose 46.3%.
setting EV =0, you get;
0=p*0.5-0.463, p=0.926. so you need a decimal price of 1.926 (-108) for over 27.0 to be a break even proposition.
so if $2.00 on over 27.5 is fair value then $1.926 (-108) for over 27.0 would be too.
So roughly a 1/2 point is worth 7.5c in decimal odds or 8c in american odds.
If a bookie normally offers -110 on even money lines and if 27.5 is the correct line then betting over 27.0 at -110 should be a negative EV proposition.
To figure out how often 27 must occur for the over 27.0 at -110 to be fair value, you need to set EV=0.
($0.91 is what you make per $1 bet at -110)
0 = 0.91*0.5-0.5+x, x=0.045
27 needs to occur exactly 4.5% for the over 27.0 line to be fair value at -110 given that 27.5 is the correct line.