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bankroll question

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04-30-2018 , 05:53 AM

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

Would the pokerdope variance calculator work for sports betting? pokerdope asks you to enter the standard deviation and winrate.

http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

To give a simple example say

standard deviation is 3.62
winrate 0.10 ROI

Thing is when I enter ^ this, its saying required bankroll 196 bet units, so betting $100 a game requires a bankroll of $19,600, seems way overboard?

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04-30-2018 , 07:48 AM

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

Kelly Criterion.

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04-30-2018 , 08:30 AM

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

Yeah I use Kelly for all my staking, but this was just a experiment for something else, and was just trying to figure out if the pokerdope calculator can be used, and what to enter as the winrate.

I suppose the 0.10 is correct but the bankroll suggested amount didn't make sense and thought I ask here if it was correct.

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05-01-2018 , 04:30 AM

MisterRodriguez

journeyman

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 301

No,pokerdope works for ... poker

Kelly Criterion

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05-01-2018 , 04:34 AM

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

With pokerdope it just asks you to enter two simple values, your winrate and standard deviation, can you explain why it wouldn't work for sports betting? not disputing kelly is the most optimal staking approach, but instead just wondering why do you say it wouldn't give the correct sims for sports?

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05-01-2018 , 04:45 AM

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

You're asking him to explain how purple and 12 taste.

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05-01-2018 , 04:49 AM

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

I'm asking him would the pokerdope calculations be correct, neverminding that it wouldn't be the optimal staking approach.

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05-01-2018 , 04:54 AM

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

What does that even mean? They're not even correct for poker. They're a vague approximation of BR outcomes given a flat win rate and a normal distribution of outcomes. Both of those are obviously incorrect assumptions, but its "good enough".

I'm not even sure what you're asking.

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05-01-2018 , 05:13 AM

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mihkel05

They're a vague approximation of BR outcomes given a flat win rate and a normal distribution of outcomes.

This ^ is all that I am after.

Because I'm testing a flat winrate only staking approach.

But I'm just trying to work out what do I enter as my win rate in the pokerdope winrate section?

Say using a simple 7 bet example see below, where there a 10 bets with a flat $1 stake per bet.

5
-1
2
4
-1
-1
-1

So the first one 5 would mean a $5 profit as it won from the $1 bet

The second is a $1 loss betting a even money bet and so on

Basically just trying to figure out what to enter as the win rate lets say using the 7 bet example above?

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05-01-2018 , 05:43 AM

#10

Mihkel05

banned

Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 4,835

There is an obviously better way of doing that.

Also, stop being such a dick when asking for help.

Best of luck.

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05-01-2018 , 05:45 AM

#11

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

where was I a dick honestly?

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05-01-2018 , 06:01 AM

#12

kewIx

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 22

I reread this thread and simply don't see where I acted like a dick

, if anyone can point out where I behaved like a dick in this thread please do as I'm now curious.

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05-02-2018 , 12:03 AM

#13

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,788

If you have good hedge opportunities you should be betting over Kelly.

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