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Old 11-19-2009, 12:05 PM   #201
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Smile Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

keyroy,
The two uk bets I like this weekend ar Stoke and Queen of the South. Strong home value bets imo.

If you're interested in european stuff, Napoli and Sporting Gijon are my 2 faves

Good luck however you bet this weekend
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Old 11-19-2009, 05:00 PM   #202
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Notts county v Aldershot league 2 England

any thoughts?

Good 1 imo new manager has settled in now, he will be looking for a good strong performence this week, Notts just coming off a 3-3 thriller and are still unbeaten at home this season.
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Old 11-19-2009, 05:56 PM   #203
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by keyroy View Post
Hi man thanks 4 reply. I'm interested mainly in the premiership (england), but also all the major european leagues if there is value to be had. Looking to build a roll on betfair, after recently 3am drunk steaming it off playing poker with my sports roll.

P.S. Sunderland are my team and I try not to bet on them (excpect d. bent 1st goalscorer every week) as i get far too emotional lol.
Ok, im mainly interested in the swiss league (cus i know it best), then england prem and prima in spain, as well as other major european leagues and cups. I kinda know your problem. Emotions are hard to control especially when your team plays.

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www.bankrollboss.wordpress.com

Read about emotion!
Great! Is that your blog? Lookin forward for more content!
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Old 11-19-2009, 06:12 PM   #204
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

First off, sorry if this is out of place, but I'm asking anyway. What would you experienced bettors guess the line would be between a top European Club team and a top European National side, both starting their top lineups? Say

a) Chelsea vs Spain
b) Barcelona vs England

Second, what would the approx line be for Chelsea/Barcelona against middle-strength European sides like Greece/Czech Republic/Denmark? Nothing important, I'm just curious.
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Old 11-19-2009, 07:46 PM   #205
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrHoobris View Post
First off, sorry if this is out of place, but I'm asking anyway. What would you experienced bettors guess the line would be between a top European Club team and a top European National side, both starting their top lineups? Say

a) Chelsea vs Spain
b) Barcelona vs England

Second, what would the approx line be for Chelsea/Barcelona against middle-strength European sides like Greece/Czech Republic/Denmark? Nothing important, I'm just curious.
Barca -400 and that's being generous to England lol. I would like to see chelsea vs spain though, that would be a lot closer imo. Interesting thought MrHoobris.
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Old 11-19-2009, 08:20 PM   #206
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by MrHoobris View Post
First off, sorry if this is out of place, but I'm asking anyway. What would you experienced bettors guess the line would be between a top European Club team and a top European National side, both starting their top lineups? Say

a) Chelsea vs Spain
b) Barcelona vs England

Second, what would the approx line be for Chelsea/Barcelona against middle-strength European sides like Greece/Czech Republic/Denmark? Nothing important, I'm just curious.
a) Chelsea vs Spain 1.2/ 3.5/ 2.5
b) Barcelona vs England 1.05/ 4/ 2 <-prefer to c!

no idea very late nite guesses... maybe id should go to bed insted!
^cant answer ur 2. question

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Old 11-19-2009, 09:37 PM   #207
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Thanks Gazo. Just been lookin at the price of stoke on betfair its 2.18 there seems like quite a bit of value in that considering their good home form, wins against burnley, sunderland and west ham. Lost to chelsea and man u. drew with wolves (seem to remember them being unlucky in that game too). Portsmouth been playin a lot better lately but i still think thats a great price.
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Old 11-20-2009, 07:47 AM   #208
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by keyroy View Post
Thanks Gazo. Just been lookin at the price of stoke on betfair its 2.18 there seems like quite a bit of value in that considering their good home form, wins against burnley, sunderland and west ham. Lost to chelsea and man u. drew with wolves (seem to remember them being unlucky in that game too). Portsmouth been playin a lot better lately but i still think thats a great price.
yes snap it up mate
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Old 11-20-2009, 10:53 AM   #209
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Chelsea V Spain would be a fkn awesome game
I'd make Chel slight faves only because they're playing at home, on neutral ground I'd favour Spain.
Something like:
H/A/D
2.3/2.7/4
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Old 11-20-2009, 11:26 AM   #210
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Chelsea V Spain would be a fkn awesome game
I'd make Chel slight faves only because they're playing at home, on neutral ground I'd favour Spain.
Something like:
H/A/D
2.3/2.7/4

well you seem to like chelasea

elaborate on spain being a fav on neutr. ground.
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Old 11-20-2009, 11:50 AM   #211
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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elaborate on spain being a fav on neutr. ground.
Spain are arguably the best national side in the world, Chelsea arguably the best club side at the moment.
Compare the players. If Spain had Chelsea's squad to choose from who would start?....Ashley Cole is the only definite, possibly Drogba and Lampard or maybe Essien
The spanish midfield/attack of Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Alonso, Silva, Villa, Torres is superior to just about any team. I doubt that either GK is significantly better than the other
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Old 11-20-2009, 11:54 AM   #212
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by thorntoc View Post
Spain are arguably the best national side in the world, Chelsea arguably the best club side at the moment.
Compare the players. If Spain had Chelsea's squad to choose from who would start?....Ashley Cole is the only definite, possibly Drogba and Lampard or maybe Essien
The spanish midfield/attack of Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Alonso, Silva, Villa, Torres is superior to just about any team. I doubt that either GK is significantly better than the other
I dont agree
Quote:
Chelsea arguably the best club side at the moment
Barca is way better imo. But actually nobody can tell till ChL

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Old 11-20-2009, 12:03 PM   #213
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by A234 View Post
I dont agree

Barca is way better imo. But actually nobody can tell till ChL

Regards
A234
lol that's why I said 'arguably'
These types of games are hard to handicap since any kind of stats analysis will only get you so far and the rest will likely come down to personal opinions. Would be great if it ever happened.
FWIW i am neither a Chelsea fan nor Spanish
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Old 11-21-2009, 06:15 AM   #214
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by A234 View Post
I dont agree

Barca is way better imo. But actually nobody can tell till ChL

Regards
A234
You might not be able to tell after the ChL if the last Barcelona v Chelsea match is anything to go by
[I'm not a Chelsea fan either, but they were still completely robbed!]
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Old 11-21-2009, 07:43 AM   #215
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Yeah chelsea were v unlucky in CL game between the two last year. Bad decision after bad decision followed by last minute winner. I dont actually like chelsea i prefer man u always have but have to admit chelsea playin v well this year and barca seem to struggle just a little bit against well organised defences a la rubin kazan. i think the line on that game if it were 2moro would obv favour whoever at home but there isnt much between the sides and @ a neutral ground (cl final for example) id probly make barca v small fav. its so close tho.
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Old 11-21-2009, 03:26 PM   #216
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Just woke up ... yesssss yesyeyseysyesyes !!!!!

Great things happen when I don't post me picks.

Sunderland v Arsenal : Sunderland Clean Sheet?
No 1.14 718.00 Lay 21-Nov-09 06:16 718.00

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Old 11-21-2009, 10:43 PM   #217
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Depor came through for me. Glad I took it.

Another potential trap that I feel great about. I need to get my money somewhere that's offering similar. On betfair right now, similar on WBX, they have Leverkusen at 5.8 to win the Bundesliga. That to me is sick, sick value.

Here's my reasoning. I did this before today's matches so it's not quite current as teams have moved around largely due to the uneven schedules with some matches tomorrow. Leverkusen are currently 3 points clear, or were before today. They're now even with a match in hand. Their schedule has been probably the toughest ever to this point in the year looking at where teams are in the table. Before today's matches they were top and had played the teams 2-7 in the table. After Bayern Munich the rest of their schedule for the first half of the season is the teams that yesterday were 10th, 14th, 15th and 18th (bottom). Goal differential is a better predictor than points and their goal differential is also the best in the league despite that schedule.

Basically the results indicate that they have been by far the best team in the league thus far. Even if they lose tomorrow to Bayern they will be 3 clear of them and even with Werder Bremen. Despite all that they are 4.8:1 and Bayern Munich are at 1.74:1.

I think there is a ton of value in backing Bayer Leverkusen and laying Bayern Munchen. What do you guys think?
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:40 AM   #218
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

had 1 bet all day yesterday, queen of the south and it got postponed on the plus side tho i was there to see the all conquering sunderland beat arsenal, deservedly so i might add. Gna get on stoke 2day and i think i might back napoli too. Any1 got anything else good 4 theday?
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Old 11-22-2009, 09:41 AM   #219
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Cagliari Lay(vs AC Milan) looks promising @ around 8.4(i think)
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Old 11-22-2009, 09:43 AM   #220
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL View Post
Depor came through for me. Glad I took it.

Another potential trap that I feel great about. I need to get my money somewhere that's offering similar. On betfair right now, similar on WBX, they have Leverkusen at 5.8 to win the Bundesliga. That to me is sick, sick value.

Here's my reasoning. I did this before today's matches so it's not quite current as teams have moved around largely due to the uneven schedules with some matches tomorrow. Leverkusen are currently 3 points clear, or were before today. They're now even with a match in hand. Their schedule has been probably the toughest ever to this point in the year looking at where teams are in the table. Before today's matches they were top and had played the teams 2-7 in the table. After Bayern Munich the rest of their schedule for the first half of the season is the teams that yesterday were 10th, 14th, 15th and 18th (bottom). Goal differential is a better predictor than points and their goal differential is also the best in the league despite that schedule.

Basically the results indicate that they have been by far the best team in the league thus far. Even if they lose tomorrow to Bayern they will be 3 clear of them and even with Werder Bremen. Despite all that they are 4.8:1 and Bayern Munich are at 1.74:1.

I think there is a ton of value in backing Bayer Leverkusen and laying Bayern Munchen. What do you guys think?
Important question: Is Ribery playing?
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Old 11-22-2009, 12:35 PM   #221
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Good stuff. Bayer L looked a better team for long stretches. Munich look semilost without riberry and tony.
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Old 11-22-2009, 05:59 PM   #222
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL View Post
Depor came through for me. Glad I took it.

Another potential trap that I feel great about. I need to get my money somewhere that's offering similar. On betfair right now, similar on WBX, they have Leverkusen at 5.8 to win the Bundesliga. That to me is sick, sick value.

Here's my reasoning. I did this before today's matches so it's not quite current as teams have moved around largely due to the uneven schedules with some matches tomorrow. Leverkusen are currently 3 points clear, or were before today. They're now even with a match in hand. Their schedule has been probably the toughest ever to this point in the year looking at where teams are in the table. Before today's matches they were top and had played the teams 2-7 in the table. After Bayern Munich the rest of their schedule for the first half of the season is the teams that yesterday were 10th, 14th, 15th and 18th (bottom). Goal differential is a better predictor than points and their goal differential is also the best in the league despite that schedule.

Basically the results indicate that they have been by far the best team in the league thus far. Even if they lose tomorrow to Bayern they will be 3 clear of them and even with Werder Bremen. Despite all that they are 4.8:1 and Bayern Munich are at 1.74:1.

I think there is a ton of value in backing Bayer Leverkusen and laying Bayern Munchen. What do you guys think?
Rereading this I realize I wasn't clear on a most crucial detail. I was talking about futures here. All odds given are to win the Bundesliga.

I just checked betfair and Leverkusen are still at 5.3 to back and Bayern at 2.88 to lay. IMO Leverkusen should be the runaway favorite at this stage. I'm not saying 2.0 or less, and I don't have an exact estimate but 5.3 is absurdly long in my view.
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Old 11-22-2009, 06:45 PM   #223
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

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Originally Posted by JaredL View Post

I think there is a ton of value in backing Bayer Leverkusen and laying Bayern Munchen. What do you guys think?
I think Leverkusen is what Orlando Magic was in the NBA playoffs last year. Team from a small town, with a lot less exposure (compare to Munich... or Boston/Cleveland)... that's just BETTER than those other teams. Fortunately, odds don't reflect just the form, but also the hype.
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Old 11-22-2009, 08:51 PM   #224
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Agree with Jared that Leverkusen seems like good value ...

MLS final tonight tonight! Here's my play ... (stupid limits)

22 Nov 09 / 23:58 Single 1 Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy – First Goalscorer Robbie Findley @ 8.50 – $27.65 O/0805348/0000004/F
22 Nov 09 / 23:58 Single 1 Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy – Last Goalscorer Robbie Findley @ 8.50 – $27.65 O/0805348/0000005/F
22 Nov 09 / 23:58 Single 1 Real Salt Lake v LA Galaxy – Anytime Goalscorer Robbie Findley @ 3.25 – $45.81 O/0805348/0000006/F
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Old 11-22-2009, 09:25 PM   #225
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Re: Football (soccer) betting thread

Looks like RSL are dogs. I think they should be favored based on season results. I've still only got money on huge-overround bookmaker but I think I'll throw a few bucks on RSL.
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