don't worry, you got atleast til saturday after the game

Oreos,

You're not understanding the dynamics of early markets correctly if you're suggesting we are currently competing with people who bets 50k. Star Lizard and those guys haven't placed their bets yet and have nothing to do with the lines as they are currently.

I know most sharps here are efficient market hypothesis-crazy, but in my opinion there is nothing that would suggest that the market is anywhere close to efficient today, 80 hours or whatever from kick-off.

Just go to whatever odds comparison site you can find and look at the line movements from stuff like last years CL final, the WC final and stuff like that if you don't believe me. Compare the line on Wednesday to the kick-off line.

Now, I'm obviously not saying blackf1re might have found a profitable angle here. I'm just saying that thinking that the market is anywhere near efficient or unbeatable for someone that puts his mind to it this long before kick-off is extremely misinformed.

I really should change my location it has been misinterrpreted 2 or 3 times in the past 2 years or so. It is actually a rhyme from some Big L song but I forgot the name of it.

I am not saying the market is 100% efficient either but he said the game was AH0 in 2009 which is some sort of gazo suggestion that the market is 0.5 goals away from accurate (unlikely).


*Free money*

As lots of people complain I don't contribute you can get $50 free by going to bookmaker > entertainment and then betting the max on there to be another 7.0+ earthquake in 2011. I would expect your winrate to be 90%+ unless I am horribly wrong.

Lol.

Bookmaker have created insurance for people living near fault lines. How nice of them.

Hi guys,
im beginner and i have a question (probably a noob one)
it is -EV to bet more than one game per unit ?

It depends.

25/1 Mascherano to get sent off. You heard it here first.

Paddy power have some juicy looking commentary props

"Cancelling each other out" @ 19
2009 @4 (freee money IMO)
League and champions league double(if only that fergie nobgobbler Keys was commentating) @23
Nervous moments @21

Nice odds on Vidic getting a yellow too...

Can you give me a simple example please ?
when it right and when it wrong to bet more then one game.

I understand that it depends on a lot of things,
but what is the most common cases?

It all depends on the size of your edge, google kelly criterion.

Here is a link to SBRs kelly calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

You will be surprised how much of your BR you should bet on certain edges, it is a lot more than you think.

Thanks.

any thought on manchester to win in regular time @ 4.0 ??
this seams way to high

just do em on the +0.5 asian handicap instead. 0:0 or 1:1 way too probable not to hedge

William Hill hanging 2.2 on Barca and 4.0 on ManU and praying for a draw?

i dont know what to bet on this game. please someone give me courage to make a play.

I thought I'd share some props that I like. Already written about them on my website but not gonna spam it here.

* David Villa not to score @ 1.35 (Pinny): pretty self explanatory - Barca is expected to score <1.30 on avg, Villa is completely out of form

* Barcelona +0.5 @ 2.18 on the yellow card spread: I guess people are expecting 80% Barca possession and utterly dominated Utd players desperately karate kicking Barca players. Getting +0.5 and big plus odds on a YC spread is pretty huge here, considering Barca will probably have defenders playing out of position. Barca gets a ton more yellows on average than United usually.

Just abuse the various bookie promos if you're in the UK - there are tonne of money back / free bet offers.

I know nothing about soccer but planned to watch this game...so I took these. Sounds reasonable...

£104 on Barca inside 90min here at 1/1 , logging into streampro.tv

Anyone else think Van De Saar's positioning was responsible for both goals?

I can't remember the last time I've seen a team with so much possession time inside the penalty area.

Stupid Villa...

The second goal was on the blond guy standing around. You can't let Messi dribble free that close to begin with, and the goalie has to weight himself to the left side (facing the net) because the defender is blocking some of the right side, and Messi just curled it around him to about the rightmost place he could put it.

On the first goal, the guy was just in clean too, and goalie guessed far post instead of near post, so he looks like an idiot when Pedro goes near post, but unless he were somehow out a lot further challenging it, and I don't see how that could be given the play, he had to pick something.

Wow haven't been watching soccer lately but barca is just unreal.