But Braga are playing at home. They moved from PK to +1. So I assume when they're away from home it's going to open at something like +1.5. I don't understand where PK came from.

Unless I'm going crazy here, Kyiv are at home. SBO has them in the early markets as 1.6 1X2 faves and allocated an AH of -1.0.

Before it was level ball, as Braga were supposed to be at home and therefore Kyiv would be level ball dogs. There is a lot of confusion but no source confirms why there is a difference of opinion. This is my last go at explaining as its **** with my head and I don't give a monkey's! Kyiv knocked us out so they can play on the moon for all I care!

UEFA's website lists Kyiv at home.

http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/index.html

This is really weird, BBC lists them as the away team.

On the link there is a picture of the draw it shows all the home teams on the left and Braga is there but they officially list braga as the away team on the right side of the screen.

Hey guyz, am new to sports betting (online wise) and I was wondering If some1 can help... Do u guyz jst put bets on the thread, or there's a website, or u escrow a mod... let me know, and ya I wana bet on Real Madrid :P

Craig Mackail-Smith to score 1st goal tonight for Peterboro - 11/2

Having piece of that.

11/2 is awfully short for a player not likely to be on penalties who aren't even favs in this game. Yes he's got 22 goals but they've got 86 and he's scored just 2 of their last 11 goals.

Would be steering wellll clear of that one.

Some would say he is due.

When a certain player has won you money before, you tend to stick by them. This is the case with him. Bit like Danny Graham at Watford.

Plus it's only for a bit of a laugh and to have some interest in the game.

I don't get why people post this.

If you are full aware that it's a stupid bet value wise and it's only for fun, why even bother to mention it on 2+2? To brag about all the fun you're having? Why would anyone care?

I'm having more fun than you bro!

I bet on Craig Mackail smith to score first and Peterboro to lose 1-2. That's like five times more fun.

I was going to say breaking it down mathematically it didn't seem tooooooooooooo bad + you obv know your sht (if you are sad enough to follow Peterborough for jokes, I feel sorry for ya!). I'm watching it at work as Russian Prem has finished. Pretty open game and he had a few opportunities.

On a sidenote, I'm going to stick my neck out and say the 1/4 on Barca to beat Shaktar is straight up value. I could break it down statistically and player for player but there is no need. I've seen a hell of a lot worse 1.25 shots. There is nothing that the market do not already know about but Barca have to push as going to Donetsk without a lead is going to be a problem. Laugh all you want about me tipping a 1.25 shot...

http://odds.bestbetting.com/football.../match-result/

edit: fk it, I will do a preview on the AHC. My last one was soooo correct for the Arsenal game - unfortunately I got the wrong leg

Im very sorry. Will never happen again.

Hi, i come from the poker forums and know very little about sports betting but it recently caught my interest and i have a few questions if someone is willing to help. First of all i don't know much about football, i just watch some big matches ocasionally so handicapping is out of the question. So is it possible to make any profit by attacking weak lines in the market without having football knowledge?

I chose football because the market for it seems very wide and i don't know american sports. From what i noticed the best lines are on the games which attract most fans, like major leagues. Less known leagues seems to have terrible lines and i assume betting on these must involve a lot of handicapping. So i should stick to the first. First thing i noticed some games have good lines from the start if you shop on different sites and the odds are positive for the bettor. For example Wolfsburg vs Frankfurt in the Bundesliga 1.95 at Tipico/3.67/4.83 at Pinnacle, but there are few lines like this and the edge is less than 1%. So making an arb is no good here, i assume one of the sides is weaker than the other but where do i start? Is it a good idea to look at the other lines and make an average to see which one is further off? Judging by this method the 4.83 at Pinnacle seems a bit further from the norm. Or i could look at the bookies offering them? I would assume Pinnacle has the more balanced odds so the less known Tipico should be wrong.

Further i noticed many of the lines change. Usually, the odds of the favourite decrease and the odds of draw and the underdog increase, but not always. Some lines seem to go the other way while some don't change. So, generally, the best thing should be to bet the favourite early or the underdog late, before the match. But why do lines change? Is it because of people betting on one side? That means most bets are on favourites so bookies make the lines bad on favourites from the start? That means the best thing to do is bet on the draw/underdog at the best odds.

I would be thankfully if anyone can tell me if i'm wrong or give further advice.

Coming days there are the Euro qualifying matches.
At oddschecker I can see that holland is at 1.53 versus Hungary.

I mean we beat them 6-1 in a friendly pre-World cup. Furthermore our line up for tomorrow is probably:
Vorm (2nd Keeper of Holland); Van der Wiel(Ajax), Heitinga(Everton), Mathijsen (HSV) en Pieters (PSV); De Jong (man City) en Van der Vaart (Tottenham); Kuijt (Liverpool), Sneijder(Internazionale) en Afellay (Barca); Van Persie (Arsenal)


Btw I'm living in Denmark but am from Holland. So my question is while we play away, 1.53 for win Holland, is that high or is it a trap?

I really don't know much about the Hungarian national side but I do know they always play teams tough at home. They lie 2nd in the group atm behind the Dutch so they will be fighting pretty hard. Obv Holland has the better side but it won't be easy. Im probably going to stay away from that one.

Serbia OTOH are at home to N Ireland and are 8/15 which seems decent to me. The game will be played behind closed doors after the Serbia fans exploits in Italy last time out. N Ireland have improved but don't think they have enough to trouble Serbia, they will just put everyone behind the ball so it will be up to Serbia to break them down. I fancy them to do it.

So why is Padova/Atalanta being a draw shorter than 2/1 on?

lol my poker site's SB portion took 2+ minutes in updating the odds on the Toronto FC v Portland line after TO scored the 1-0 goal.

Managed to get 2u on Toronto FC @ 2.17

hold 1 tiiiiiiiiiiiiime!!!!!!!

Oh boy you're going to see some fun in Italy this weekend

Here is a decent strategy regarding draw betting.

Draw history between two teams + Odds of 2.60+ = back to lay off
Odds of 2.60 - 2.10 when market is liquid and there has been plenty of time to get down = lay
Odds of 2.10 - 1.80 = leave alone
Odds of 1.80 - 1.30 on matchday = all in!

Only on betfair though right? Other might cancel them.

Oh yeah it's draw season in Italy again. Chievo v Sampdoria is already down to 1.60

Is betting on the clear fix actually profitable? Did some research of 'fixed' games in Italy a while back, found basically that the market was still efficient and so-called fixes were still winning as much as the odds said (albeit more than the average obv).

pmed

I love draw season, tis the season where I recoup the losses from my stupid tennis bet's, "Yeah, sure Federer is going to win all the slam's, ship the monies".

You really bet on Federer to do that?

Yup, im addicted to the Fed, I knew it was a bad bet but kinda wanted the sweat as I don't really support any of the current top 10. I also went to Wimbledon last year and lost quite a lot on random Men's 2nd round game's and the like, was fun though.

Managed to get some money on the draw in a couple of Serie B matches and odds have shortened dramatically in some cases.

Bit surprised that Precara v Crotone falls under that category as well. Left that one alone as I thought both teams (certainly Pescara) might go for the win here.